ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[RF2044]

I don't think FSU has any options right now. If they did they would have left by now. I also don't see the SEC wanting them.

Agree -- no options right now, which is why all they could do was rattle their saber.

But I could see the FSU brand [even though it isn't what it was] carrying some cache down the road. Have to believe they'd be an attractive pull for the SEC when expansion picks back up.

 

[shantydaze]

. . . I always thought Hopkins went to the B1G to be part of the B1G academic consortium.

I do not know if Hopkins was offered a spot, but it is not currently part of the BTAA.

 

[SU91]

If FSU is able to get private equity money to leave the ACC, let them go. we can backfill with South Florida or UCF once the B12 GOR finishes.

Why would UCF or USF join a dying conference? They wouldn’t.

 

[Scooch]

Rick Pitino is a charlatan and a dope, but we need high profile charlatans and dopes banging the drum for this breakaway football concept.

 

[Orangezoo]

Why would UCF or USF join a dying conference? They wouldn’t.

Well if it's near the B12 GOR expiration there may be the question then of the B12 being a dying conference...

About the only long term certainty right now is that there is no certainty.

 

[kcsu]

There will not be a PE backer. Where is the source of return for them? They likely cant lever up the school, no conference will agree to pay for FSU's rights, and Florida State wont payout a significant share of their media earnings to the PE firm because they are already concerned with the cash gap today.

So what value is there? IF a PE firm ends up covering 250M of FSU's expected costs then they would expect at least 375M in total returns within (at most) 7 years. Where does FS find that $80+/year. There are some dumb people in private equity, but they aren't dumb enough to think this deal has any upside value. Add to the fact they you will never be able to sell the rights again because the SEC/BIg Ten partner will own them going forward and you have an idea that is dead in the water.

This response isn't directed at you as much as the general internet ether, talking heads are freaking out but there is no deal here. JPMorgan is advising on this because it gets press and gives an MD an excuse to get in the ear of school presidents but the people acting like this is as good as Apollo or KKR coming in with a blank check are smoking crack.

I was CEO of a Blackstone company for 8 years. I dont see the value proposition that FSU could propose that would make sense to a private equity firm.

 

[Willy75]

Why would UCF or USF join a dying conference? They wouldn’t.

Plus from my perspective as an SU fan I don’t want to be in a conference with large directional state schools. It’s what I really disliked about the direction (sic) Big East football was taking way back when.

 

[Willy75]

I was CEO of a Blackstone company for 8 years. I dont see the value proposition that FSU could propose that would make sense to a private equity firm.

Actually if the other conference members were smart they’d amend the by-laws to forbid this. Once PE is involved you’d get all kinds of distorted decision making.

 

[RF2044]

I was CEO of a Blackstone company for 8 years. I dont see the value proposition that FSU could propose that would make sense to a private equity firm.

Tend to agree. I think this is just them trying to get created / think outside of the box to see how they might challenge the GOR.

It's an interesting idea -- just not sure that it is as feasible as they would like to believe as a strategy.

 

[Newhouser]

I admire the SEC arrogance in sitting back and doing nothing here and still holding all the power. I also don't trust them and wonder what they are scheming or if they even need to scheme. Ride it out, wait until the money dries up and then boot members and replace them with whoever they believe brings more value?

 

[Timonen]

There will not be a PE backer. Where is the source of return for them? They likely cant lever up the school, no conference will agree to pay for FSU's rights, and Florida State wont payout a significant share of their media earnings to the PE firm because they are already concerned with the cash gap today.

So what value is there? IF a PE firm ends up covering 250M of FSU's expected costs then they would expect at least 375M in total returns within (at most) 7 years. Where does FS find that $80+/year. There are some dumb people in private equity, but they aren't dumb enough to think this deal has any upside value. Add to the fact they you will never be able to sell the rights again because the SEC/BIg Ten partner will own them going forward and you have an idea that is dead in the water.

This response isn't directed at you as much as the general internet ether, talking heads are freaking out but there is no deal here. JPMorgan is advising on this because it gets press and gives an MD an excuse to get in the ear of school presidents but the people acting like this is as good as Apollo or KKR coming in with a blank check are smoking crack.

PE firms invest into growing markets, not shrinking ones. Middle East state-run funds have some different goals but can’t imagine a public university being able to rationalize taking that.

 

[Cusefan69]

I admire the SEC arrogance in sitting back and doing nothing here and still holding all the power. I also don't trust them and wonder what they are scheming or if they even need to scheme. Ride it out, wait until the money dries up and then boot members and replace them with whoever they believe brings more value?

I think they are waiting more because they have to. The assets they want are locked up behind an ACC Gor.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I think they are waiting more because they have to. The assets they want are locked up behind an ACC Gor.

The only asset I could see them wanting now is Clemson. FSU’s brand isn’t what it was. Frankly I don’t understand why the Big would want UNC or Virginia. Their football viewership is both near the bottom of the Power 5.

 

[Newhouser]

I think they are waiting more because they have to. The assets they want are locked up behind an ACC Gor.

I agree but I also think they now they can sit idle for a bit and poach whoever they want if the time comes. I'm also not sure how in love they are with the best assets in the ACC.

 

[Cuse'91]

I admire the SEC arrogance in sitting back and doing nothing here and still holding all the power. I also don't trust them and wonder what they are scheming or if they even need to scheme. Ride it out, wait until the money dries up and then boot members and replace them with whoever they believe brings more value?

Have they sat back and done nothing though? The SEC probably started this phase of realignment with taking Texas and Oklahoma from the Big 12.

 

[RF2044]

Man, I wish we had more info coming out of camp so that we could focus on the upcoming season instead of this realignment stuff...

 

[FreakTalksAboutSU]

Am I understanding correctly that the ESPN media deal has baked in that the network will pay the same amount per team to new teams up to a fixed amount?

Is that is the case...IF IF IF...what about something like this

1. Add 6 west coast teams. One should be Gonzaga for all sports except football.
2. Create west division where they play most games among themselves. For football, most seasons one to two long trips a year for an interdivisional game. For non revenue sports, a similarly low number.
3. Give them 70% shares to start (~25 mill based on the current 36 number) which will escalate in accordance to the current deal.
4. That leaves $66 million or so. Take 10 million and immediately give each school half a million or so for travel.
4. Take the remaining $56 mill or so and create a football-based performance pot allowing up to the top 8 ACC finishers an additional $15 mill (15, 12, 10, 6, 5, 4, 3, 1)

This would enable teams like Clemson and FSU to get an immediate bump if they have the season they claim they are worth.

Does this solve for a long term problem? probably not. But could buy us some stability for at least a few seasons.

OK, pick it apart.

 

[Hoo's That]

Rick Pitino is a charlatan and a dope, but we need high profile charlatans and dopes banging the drum for this breakaway football concept.

In a vain attempt to get away from the restaurant references, I told our board to pretend Jay Wright posted the Tweet instead of Pitino.

 

[Scooch]

The only asset I could see them wanting now is Clemson. FSU’s brand isn’t what it was. Frankly I don’t understand why the Big would want UNC or Virginia. Their football viewership is both near the bottom of the Power 5.

UNC and UVA have impeccable academic reputations, huge fanbases, field championship-level teams for everything but football, and are located in a high population growth area. They’re perfect fits for the B1G, and would complete an east coast footprint that spans NJ, PA, MD, VA and NC. They make all the sense.

It’s hard for me to envision a future where they’re not in the B1G.

 

[Cusefan0307]

UNC and UVA have impeccable academic reputations, huge fanbases, field championship-level teams for everything but football, and are located in a high population growth area. They’re perfect fits for the B1G, and would complete an east coast footprint that spans NJ, PA, MD, VA and NC. They make all the sense.

It’s hard for me to envision a future where they’re not in the B1G.

UNC probably. I just don't see it with Virginia based on their football ratings. This round of realignment didn't seem to center around just adding teams from high population centers like Rutgers, but again just my 2 cents.

 

[SU91]

Man, I wish we had more info coming out of camp so that we could focus on the upcoming season instead of this realignment stuff...

100%

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[orangepassion]

There’s no rush-None of the other big Conferences are taking them

 

[Phillymoose]

PE firms invest into growing markets, not shrinking ones. Middle East state-run funds have some different goals but can’t imagine a public university being able to rationalize taking that.

The locals will love the "Tallahassee Branch of the King Abdulaziz University - formerly known as Florida State". Mascot changed to 'The Fighting Djinn'.

 

[Scooch]

UNC probably. I just don't see it with Virginia based on their football ratings. This round of realignment didn't seem to center around just adding teams from high population centers like Rutgers, but again just my 2 cents.

Fan bases and brands matter a lot as the media world moves from cable networks to streaming subscriptions. UVA has a large fan base that’ll subscribe for a multitude of sports, even if their football is a perennial underachiever.

Population growth matters for the schools themselves. Those Midwest-bases colleges are eager to increase their presence in NoVa and NC. More out of state kids = more tuition money.