Akok Akok in the portal

[Orangezoo]

If the hypothetical lineup is

Edwards
Williams
Taylor
Girard
Mintz

I strongly suspect we will see a lot of open threes and slashing drives to the basket from Taylor and Williams.

The pick and roll from Edwards and Girard is going to open up a lot for everybody else. The priority of the defense will be to stop that play.

Second defensive priority will be to stop Mintz on the drive either all the way to the basket or to pop the lethal midrange shot.

Those two plays are going to be a lot of our offense. Both are going to create for the forwards who will have to prove they can do something with the extra space. Of our incoming forwards, Taylor has the most two-dribble-and-dunk game in his tape. I also see him battling for rebounds better than Bunch. Between them, I think Taylor gets the call next year, unless the shooting disparity is large in Bunch's favor.

The lineup above will have three guys who can hit an open three and one lethal guy from three AND four guys who can dribble attack the basket to varying degrees.

It also has Edwards who might be able to post up.

Ideally we can score four ways:

1) Pick and roll with Girard and Edwards

2) Motion offense to create space for Girard to shoot or Mintz to drive and create

3) Isolation for Mintz to create for himself or others

4) Post up for Edwards (he has shown glimpses but hasn't proven anything)

If Edwards can post up AND if the pick and roll is as good as I think it is, the forwards only need to be able to score when almost completely ignored. SOMEBODY from among our SIX forwards had to be able to do that.

The biggest concern for me is if Edwards goes out for even a second we have nobody to back him up.

Akok would help with that. He isn't the shot blocker Ballard is, but is much more versatile offensively.

Williams will likely have a role. For sure as a slasher/cutter and hopefully as a threat from the mid range and maybe a little off the dribble.

Big thing is if we don't add another scorer with this opening that is a hybrid 4/5 then rebounding and a highly improved defense become extremely important. Efficiency and shooting overall may take a major hit so the improved athleticism has to play a factor on the boards.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Lol I love when people use outliers to justify improbable things occurring.

If one of those two has 1/10 the impact (beyond statistics) Moten did his freshman year, we'll be lucky. Let alone expecting them to come close to replicating it.

It's a viable example, but also kind of a weird one since Moten was like 30 years ago.

 

[cuseguy]

If the hypothetical lineup is

Edwards
Williams
Taylor
Girard
Mintz

I strongly suspect we will see a lot of open threes and slashing drives to the basket from Taylor and Williams.

The pick and roll from Edwards and Girard is going to open up a lot for everybody else. The priority of the defense will be to stop that play.

Second defensive priority will be to stop Mintz on the drive either all the way to the basket or to pop the lethal midrange shot.

Those two plays are going to be a lot of our offense. Both are going to create for the forwards who will have to prove they can do something with the extra space. Of our incoming forwards, Taylor has the most two-dribble-and-dunk game in his tape. I also see him battling for rebounds better than Bunch. Between them, I think Taylor gets the call next year, unless the shooting disparity is large in Bunch's favor.

The lineup above will have three guys who can hit an open three and one lethal guy from three AND four guys who can dribble attack the basket to varying degrees.

It also has Edwards who might be able to post up.

Ideally we can score four ways:

1) Pick and roll with Girard and Edwards

2) Motion offense to create space for Girard to shoot or Mintz to drive and create

3) Isolation for Mintz to create for himself or others

4) Post up for Edwards (he has shown glimpses but hasn't proven anything)

If Edwards can post up AND if the pick and roll is as good as I think it is, the forwards only need to be able to score when almost completely ignored. SOMEBODY from among our SIX forwards has to be able to do that.

The biggest concern for me is if Edwards goes out for even a second we have nobody to adequately back him up.

Akok would help with that. He isn't the shot blocker Ballard is, but is much more versatile offensively.

Who’s the go-to guy in that lineup, the guy you go to when you need a big basket?

 

[Orangezoo]

The perfect example. That is why I hedge and say someone can blow up over the summer.

Moten is a never say never for sure. I would point more to a CJ Fair. Injury dropped his stock but he was far better than expected as a frosh. Marek was too. With that said they weren't coming in dropping 10-12 a game despite being surprises.

 

[XC Cuse]

It's a viable example, but also kind of a weird one since Moten was like 30 years ago.

I'd say JGIII was a good example of an unheralded recruit being successful as a freshman. Averaged 12.5 pts 3.5 assists for a recruit ranked 202 by composite is good. If Taylor can be that, that'd be a solid freshman year.

 

[rrlbees]

And Moten was the only unheralded recruit to be a star as a Freshman in the past 50 years

Doesn’t have to be a star.

 

[hoopsupstate]

Lol I love when people use outliers to justify improbable things occurring.

If one of those two has 1/10 the impact (beyond statistics) Moten did his freshman year, we'll be lucky. Let alone expecting them to come close to replicating it.

You totally missed the point. Players come in all the time and over perform and underperform. Case in point. Benny Williams. No one expected Moten to be the player he was when he was recruited.

 

[Briancuse]

I'd say JGIII was a good example of an unheralded recruit being successful as a freshman. Averaged 12.5 pts 3.5 assists for a recruit ranked 202 by composite is good. If Taylor can be that, that'd be a solid freshman year.

If Taylor avg 12.5 next year buy a lottery ticket. You might win.

 

[rrlbees]

Lots of people thought Cuse would be great with the team they had last year. Maybe if the same people think they will be bad this year they will actually be great?

Some of JBs best teams have been when least expected.

 

[RF2044]

You totally missed the point. Players come in all the time and over perform and underperform. Case in point. Benny Williams. No one expected Moten to be the player he was when he was recruited.

I didn't miss any point. It was an extreme outlier example.

Sure, those type of things happen on intermittently rare occasions, but it's very uncommon. And not a particularly compelling predictor of what to expect from either Taylor or Bunch.

For every Jay Bromley (on the football side), there exponentially more that don't pan out. Besides, pointing to the extreme outlier example who happened to morph into one of the greatest players in program history undermines the point even more.

 

[pearl31]

Doesn’t have to be a star.

And it doesn't have to be just him. It's a combo of Taylor/Bunch at the 3 w possible dashes of Copeland depending on situation

 

[SUFaninNJ]

I seriously can't even believe we are thinking of starting either one next year. 10 years ago this wouldn't even have been a consideration.

Well sure, because they would have been like 8 years old.

 

[hoopsupstate]

I didn't miss any point. It was an outlier example.

Sure, those type of things happen on intermittently rare occasions, but it's very uncommon. And not a particularly compelling predictor of what to expect from either Taylor or Bunch.

Tyler Ennis is another example. No one expected him to come in and be a lottery pick. Richardson is another example. Both are higher ranked than the kids coming in, but they all over performed. Triche, Shackleford, Marek, Santifer, Addison are others. I could go on and on. Players come in and surprise. Maybe one or two of the six might surprise next year. It’s not like it hasn’t happened before. JB certainly thinks they might.

 

[RF2044]

Tyler Ennis is another example. No one expected him to come in and be a lottery pick. Richardson is another example. Both are higher ranked than the kids coming in, but they all over performed. Triche, Shackleford, Marek, Santifer, Addison are others. I could go on and on. Players come in and surprise. Maybe one or two of the six might surprise next year. It’s not like it hasn’t happened before. JB certainly thinks they might.

Good grief -- that is complete bunk. Ennis would have been a McDonald's all American if he weren't Canadian. Richardson WAS a McDonald's all american. And half the players you list are from 40 years ago or more.

If your point is that sometimes frosh exceed expectations, nobody disputes that.

But when it happens to the degree of Moten, it's the outlier, not the rule. Which is why relying upon that to happen in a year when we're sporting the most inexperienced forward tandem in decades is a frightening strategy.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Good grief -- that is complete bunk. Ennis would have been a McDonald's all American if he weren't Canadian.

Would that make him a Tim Horton's All-Canadian?

 

[rrlbees]

And it doesn't have to be just him. It's a combo of Taylor/Bunch at the 3 w possible dashes of Copeland depending on situation

And maybe some Benny with Brown sliding in at the 4.

 

[hoopsupstate]

Good grief -- that is complete bunk. Ennis would have been a McDonald's all American if he weren't Canadian. Richardson WAS a McDonald's all american. And half the players you list are from 40 years ago or more.

If your point is that sometimes frosh exceed expectations, nobody disputes that.

But when it happens to the degree of Moten, it's the outlier, not the rule. Which is why relying upon that One more about the sport the most inexperienced Ford tandem in decades is a frightening strategy.

I guess we should cancel next year because we obviously have no one that can play.

 

[Orangezoo]

Some of JBs best teams have been when least expected.

For reference the last time we had a team that had more than two freshmen play an important role was 2011-12 with CJ, Dion, Fab and Baye. Back then Fab and Dion were both ranked top 25 in the country.

Another example was 07-08, the dynasty crew- which also had two guys who were top 30 recruits.

This season we for sure need 2 frosh in just the starting lineup alone ( barring a portal move). Then you need 1 or 2 to give us something off the bench. If it works out such that we do successfully rely on 3 or 4 guys then it's pretty rare air and not a typical formula that has been successful for us especially with all but one being less heralded/ranked.

 

[dasher]

Moten is a never say never for sure. I would point more to a CJ Fair. Injury dropped his stock but he was far better than expected as a frosh. Marek was too. With that said they weren't coming in dropping 10-12 a game despite being surprises.

Moten dropped 18 a game his frosh year

 

[Orangezoo]

Moten dropped 18 a game his frosh year

Yeah i was getting at he is more the extreme example as an exception. I was pointing to guys who were certainly better than expected but more moderate examples.

If I'm pointing to an unheralded recruit coming in and surprising I'm looking at the guys giving us good contributions not necessarily as stars. To me those are the more likely examples of a kid stepping up where expectations were in line with it taking a year to be ready.

 

[dasher]

Yeah i was getting at he is more the extreme example as an exception. I was pointing to guys who were certainly better than expected but more moderate examples

We won't need whichever frosh is the forward to be all that great. The problem is that I doubt they can reach a low bar. It just isn't their time, yet

 

[RF2044]

I guess we should cancel next year because we obviously have no one that can play.

Or perhaps we should just rebaseline expectations for a bunch of recruits that many services didn't rate inside the top 100.

Can it happen? Sure. Is it likely to happen? Not likely, But of course there's always a chance that one of these guys delivers like Moten.

Hate that this is what it's coming down to, and what some of you apparently are hanging your hats on.

 

[Orangezoo]

We won't need whichever frosh is the forward to be all that great. The problem is that I doubt they can reach a low bar. It just isn't their time, yet

Right. We are agreeing I'm just positioning my point a little differently. We don't usually see it happen with more than 1 guy hitting or exceeding that minimum bar and so if it happens with 3 for instance that would be hitting gold and highly unusual.

 

[Niastri]

Or perhaps we should just rebaseline expectations for a bunch of recruits that many services didn't rate inside the top 100.

Can it happen? Sure. Is it likely to happen? Not likely, But of course there's always a chance that one of these guys delivers like Moten.

Hate that this is what it's coming down to, and what some of you apparently are hanging your hats on.

One thing that hasn't been pointed out about the Moten comparison is the era difference.

Back then, there were three recruiting services and far fewer tournaments, all star leagues, traveling circuits.

A guy like Moten could slip through the cracks.

Now, every guy is seen by dozens of scouts (amateur and professional) every time they play. And they play all year against other top competition.

It takes a guy like Carey two years being out of commission for him to be an unknown quantity. Not playing for two years definitely makes it hard to come in and help the team right away, though.

 

[sutomcat]

Moten dropped 18 a game his frosh year

This article was published shortly after Moten announced he was going to Syracuse.

It is an interesting read. Especially for folks old enough to have seen Lawrence play at SU.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/1990/05/22/moten-opts-to-play-basketball-at-syracuse/cfabd171-ac4e-4d97-8893-ac38e71c6b55/