Benny williams

[rrlbees]

Well, that's a case of recency bias. We just had a very nice string of 1st round picks end a couple years ago.

6 straight years with a 1st round draft pick until the year Battle left.

 

[IthacaMatt]

6 straight years with a 1st round draft pick until the year Battle left.

Thanks!

 

[djcon57]

Well, that's a case of recency bias. We just had a very nice string of 1st round picks end a couple years ago.

that was 4 years ago now.
4 years.
Our recruits were in middle school. Time moves fast.

 

[supp]

Well, that's a case of recency bias. We just had a very nice string of 1st round picks end a couple years ago.

If kids took the longer history of the program under consideration when they make their decisions, we'd have no problem holding onto the kids in our program or the kids we're recruiting in the HS ranks. In any case, Waters was the one referring to recent history when he was talking about Kadary Richmond-itis. My point was that he has the wrong example in mind when we're considering Benny Williams' possible future here.

 

[rrlbees]

that was 4 years ago now.
4 years.
Our recruits were in middle school. Time moves fast.

3 drafts ago. Battle was in the 2019 draft. Not that it makes a difference anyways.

 

[djcon57]

3 drafts ago. Battle was in the 2019 draft. Not that it makes a difference anyways.

Battle wasnt drafted in the first round or drafted at all.

the last first round pick was Lydon

 

[OrangeDW]

It’s not wrong to worry about that, this is massive changing of the guard when JB leaves, UConn struggled outside of Ollie’s NC (I know ridiculous to say), are they a peer program? They hit the below .500 before becoming even semi relevant again.

it’s two 5-6 year periods of being great and expecting top 3-4 seeds

Eh. Disagree with that. You can take the 90s after Billy Owens left, when a “typical” SU team was like a 4-5 seed but was a win or two away from higher and was capable of beating anybody. 94, 95, 96(obviously), 98, and 00 teams all could’ve beaten anybody in the country on any given day, belonged on the court against everybody and were very tough outs for the best teams in the country in the tournament, and it wasn’t beyond the realm of possibility that they could win the national title.

Far different than a “Cinderella” run to the sweet 16 before getting blown off the floor by a team whose entire starting 5 was better than every player on our team.

 

[djcon57]

If kids took the longer history of the program under consideration when they make their decisions, we'd have no problem holding onto the kids in our program or the kids we're recruiting in the HS ranks. In any case, Waters was the one referring to recent history when he was talking about Kadary Richmond-itis. My point was that he has the wrong example in mind when we're considering Benny Williams' possible future here.

I think one positive in this portal era that we (and other schools for that matter) will start having to point to is watching players left like Woody for example and sit the bench at their new school. Seems easier to gain trust if a coach over time..then again, the player might not be very good

 

[HoustonCuse]

And, I'm really uncomfortable with this idea that if a guy is "meant" to be at Syracuse they see through the adversity. These relationships are not one directional. I promise Red's pitch to Benny wasn't that he should come so he could get token minutes on a middling team, but it's cool, because you'll get put back on the bench if you slip up at all.

Look, these kids want to be treated and even compensated like professionals. That’s why I have changed my approach to them. If they want to leave because they don’t produce and don’t get enough minutes as result? Forget them, see ya. Good luck holding down a pro job of any consequence with that approach.

A lot of people destroy JB because he is supposed to be treating the players with kid gloves and fawning all over them in a press conference. BS. That is not how the pro environment they so crave works. He’s supposed to play them when they can’t produce or don’t understand the defensive concepts, or theyd rather shoot 3’s than play to their strengths within the game strategy lined out by the coach? They are absolute fools if they think that is how the pro sports world works. Also, guys like Sidibe or Coleman would have been released by pro organizations. Injured? I don’t care: produce or you are gone. Miss your mom or don’t like the way you are being utilized! I don’t care: produce or you are gone. Etc.

I know everybody hates JB, but he has treated his players like adults, like pros (like how they say they want to be treated) for decades. Some are too weak to handle and many of you are too.

 

[djcon57]

Look, these kids want to be treated and even compensated like professionals. That’s why I have changed my approach to them. If they want to leave because they don’t produce and don’t get enough minutes as result? Forget them, see ya. Good luck holding down a pro job of any consequence with that approach.

A lot of people destroy JB because he is supposed to be treating the players with kid gloves and fawning all over them in a press conference. BS. That is not how the pro environment they so crave works. He’s supposed to play them when they can’t produce or don’t understand the defensive concepts, or theyd rather shoot 3’s than play to their strengths within the game strategy lined out by the coach? They are absolute fools if they think that is how the pro sports world works. Also, guys like Sidibe or Coleman would have been released by pro organizations. Injured? I don’t care: produce or you are gone. Miss your mom or don’t like the way you are being utilized! I don’t care: produce or you are gone. Etc.

I know everybody hates JB, but he has treated his players like adults, like pros (like how they say they want to be treated) for decades. Some are too weak to handle and many of you are too.

You feel the same about Symir and Cole I assume as well?

also, plenty of players that transfer do fine in the pros. Davion Mitchell this year seems to be “holding down a pro job”.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

You feel the same about Symir and Cole I assume as well?

also, plenty of players that transfer do fine in the pros. Davion Mitchell this year seems to be “holding down a pro job”.

It is funny to me that some posters have busted on Guerrier for leaving hoping that he'd be able to showcase some things more than he'd be allowed here, while at the same time we have fans here not acknowledging that Swider came here to do things Jay Wright wasn't going to let him at Villanova.

 

[DoctorBombay]

Look, these kids want to be treated and even compensated like professionals. That’s why I have changed my approach to them. If they want to leave because they don’t produce and don’t get enough minutes as result? Forget them, see ya. Good luck holding down a pro job of any consequence with that approach.

A lot of people destroy JB because he is supposed to be treating the players with kid gloves and fawning all over them in a press conference. BS. That is not how the pro environment they so crave works. He’s supposed to play them when they can’t produce or don’t understand the defensive concepts, or theyd rather shoot 3’s than play to their strengths within the game strategy lined out by the coach? They are absolute fools if they think that is how the pro sports world works. Also, guys like Sidibe or Coleman would have been released by pro organizations. Injured? I don’t care: produce or you are gone. Miss your mom or don’t like the way you are being utilized! I don’t care: produce or you are gone. Etc.

I know everybody hates JB, but he has treated his players like adults, like pros (like how they say they want to be treated) for decades. Some are too weak to handle and many of you are too.

It’s not “hate” to point out that certain players can seemingly do no wrong, while others, even if maddeningly obvious to any neutral observer, are on choke chain leashes for the same mistakes.
We saw this discrepancy in spades last year, and are seemingly witnessing the 2.0 version again this year. No one, and i mean, no one on this team deserves all the playing time. And JB’s selective "criticism by omission" when throwing players under the bus, is becoming habitual and glaring.
That, in my opinion, is what leads to other issues. Wanna play Coach Hard Azz, go right ahead. But do it to everyone, equally. JMHO

 

[Col. Bleep]

Of course they want to play, ready or not. OK, you're not going to let me go in and foul or create turnovers, I'll go to the transfer portal and go be someone elses problem. It is what it is. Which team is going to put up with a 5* kid who has tremendous promise but can't keep up with the college game because they don't have enough experience?

I think JB is handling the development of Benny well - put him in in spurts - let him get a feel for the pace of the game - maybe he'll have an assist or create and opportunity for himself. You foul someone you're out. Ya da ya da

The point isn't about the coach.
He sees Benny every day and knows his capabilities.
Over the years he's been really good at developing players over several seasons.

But that option is shrinking with the advent of the transfer portal.
Even the likes of Duke and Kentucky have to deal with it.
So if a coach wants to go that way, generally he has to get the player to feel wanted and get him to sign on to a developmental path.
Otherwise it's bye bye.

 

[SUskibum]

I would argue we are falling behind in critical thinking skills as well seeing results are independent of expectations. Your number shows results, I’m talking about expectations.

I could get into how inferential vs descriptive statistics are two sides of the same mathematical coin, but I will guess that point will be lost on you just like JB’s elite historical success rate.

 

[Jeremy L.]

Years ago while discussing a game in a presser in an off comment JB stated that Freshman are not usually ready to play their first year. They need seasoning and experience and development. There are exceptions a la Carmelo Anthony.

Obviously the news of him not transferring came out after I posted this, but totally agree. That's why I'm always a little skeptical with recruits until they're on campus because the game is SO different. Like you said, there are always exceptions

 

[Cuse181]

I could get into how inferential vs descriptive statistics are two sides of the same mathematical coin, but I will guess that point will be lost on you just like JB’s elite historical success rate.

We’re talking about two different things. College basketball variables change massively year to year, that includes players leaving, players coming in, injuries etc. To apply any sample based statistic methodology does a massive disservice to the difficulty of winning and winning consistently.

Beyond that, expectations in a qualitative sense are very different from expectations in a quantitative sense. You can apply a confidence interval to an estimation and assume Syracuse could win 18-23 games based historical results, but there is a massive jump that needs to be taken if you want to walk from win total assumptions to eventual seeding. That is where the difference lies, people can mathematically expect 25 wins, that doesn’t mean they can qualitatively expect a top 3 seed, and I’d argue that has only been a couple brief times in history where the consensus has been that a Syracuse team should be a top 3 seed pre-season.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[orangefog]

He will figure it out and he will be a star.

 

[CousCuse]

He will figure it out and he will be a star.

Soon.

 

[rrlbees]

That’s gotta blow the minds of some people.

 

[SWC75]

Thanks and great analysis. I remember reviewing previously. 75% of those coaches underperformed prior levels and by a significant margin. It's not easy to keep things going. We have certainly been performing below prior levels as of the last eight years so Jimmy's winning % over that time would not be comparable. Still not easy to replace a legend and keep it going.

Cuse!

Sure that's a high bar to set for the next guy but I would also add that we'll judge the next coach on the recent history of the program first. Clearing 20 wins in the regular season will be an improvement.

Thank you sir, and stellar analysis as always.

I did note that you used the outgoing coach's overall record/win percentage.

Which does make sense evaluating the total body of work.

Part of my assertion is that JB's recent record is less impressive than the overall body.

I think we'll be beyond fortunate if the coach that follows JB has an overall win percentage that is higher.

That said, I do think that the goal of the hire is to surpass that win percentage of JB's more recent teams, and in particular, this and the last 7 or 8 seasons.

I've redone the study to just look at the legendary coach's last 5 years. I put it in a response to the "Following a Legend" post that I linked. The adjust reduced the margin by which the legendary coach out-performed his successor from 74% to 64% but that's still 64%-36% that the new guy won't be as good.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

“I know everybody hates JB”

Come on man , hard to take anything seriously with this strawman hyperbole attached . You can love someone for all that they’ve done and all that they’ve achieved and still think it’s time to move on . It’s the way successful sentient life forms operate.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Come on man , hard to take anything seriously with this strawman hyperbole attached . You can love someone for all that they’ve done and all that they’ve achieved and still think it’s time to move on . It’s the way successful sentient life forms operate.

Straw man. Everyone’s favorite word on this message board. I wonder if you guys even know what it means or if you just like saying it. I’m not sure how you could read this board over the last 5 years and especially over the past 16 months and not see the hatred for JB.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

Straw man. Everyone’s favorite word on this message board. I wonder if you guys even know what it means or if you just like saying it. I’m not sure how you could read this board over the last 5 years and especially over the past 16 months and not see the hatred for JB.

"everybody hates JB" is a bit over the top. Not to be confused with that Oscar caliber Stallone arm wrestling movie.

 

[kcsu]

Jim needs to step aside in the next year or two for the good of the program he has built and most likely for his own life.