Bill Connelly SP+ Ratings for 2020 College Football

TheCusian

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i like bill connelly but i don't really care for his rating system, especially before the season - he doesn't have any good way of projecting.
This. I go to bat for the guy, but it gets way better after 3 or so games. This early, it’s a lot of “they’ve been here traditionally and finished x last year so” ... and that can be kind of predictive.

Like if I said “Rutgers will be bad, BC and Pitt mediocre, and Clemson really good” based on recent history and recruiting, it’s hard to be wrong
 

LeMoyneCuse

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Like if I said “Rutgers will be bad, BC and Pitt mediocre, and Clemson really good” based on recent history and recruiting, it’s hard to be wrong
I really like the Banner Society team (I include Connelly and Elliot in this, even though they've both since moved on), but they're all SEC-adjacent, so a bad recruiting class to them is 30. They like 247 averages as an indicator of success, but it's really only relevant for like 30 or so teams out there.
 

javadoc

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This. I go to bat for the guy, but it gets way better after 3 or so games. This early, it’s a lot of “they’ve been here traditionally and finished x last year so” ... and that can be kind of predictive.

Like if I said “Rutgers will be bad, BC and Pitt mediocre, and Clemson really good” based on recent history and recruiting, it’s hard to be wrong
Stat-based ratings are strictly meaningless until the influence of preseason rankings has decayed below a reasonable threshold.
 

upperdeck

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if the predictive models knew the QB was gonna be hurt and the oline was gonna be a mess then it was solid in how it predicted us last yr.. maybe it knew a fumble review was gonna fail in the Pitt game too?

But how does it do when systems have complete overhaul? we all have no idea what the D will turn into.. But we did see that when we changed it up 2 yrs ago we played well down the stretch and we will really be changing it up now.

We lose our #1 Wr but that has happened 3 of the 4 yrs under Dino and our #1 has been just fine.
 

AngryOtto

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100% had to do with shuffling our players and putting the players where they fit best. We had issues with pressure from frickin HOLY CROSS.
The concern I still have with the line is penalties. It seemed all last season it was a hold or false start that negated a good play or put us in a hole. I thought they said we were one of the most penalized teams last year. Hoping the penalties improve.
 

syrBossHogg

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There are certain guys that I just find it easier to never expect to see, and then be pleasantly surprised.

Ed Hendrix is one.

Caleb Oke(Pascal)chukwu is the other.
I think I saw somewhere that Caleb will be ready to go for Spring ball, maybe it was from Caleb himself. RE: Hendrix I agree that we should just expect the worse, hope for the best
 

SUskibum

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Coaching was the biggest part of the problem. We fired our DC in season and Lynch is back to coaching a position this year. Our QB coach isnt even coaching. Our coaching cost us big time last year.
Yep, it’s uncanny how the Oline, QB play and entire defense was better the last three games of the season.

Also sick of hearing the bad competition argument since the early games included Holy Cross, Liberty, and a horrific Western Mich defense
 

djorange1989

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O line sucked last year, it will be better. player attitudes sucked last year, will be better with a lot to prove this year. Our OC was blah, our DC sucked. new guys will both be better. 8-4. book it, beeoches
 

gmoney44

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The concern I still have with the line is penalties. It seemed all last season it was a hold or false start that negated a good play or put us in a hole. I thought they said we were one of the most penalized teams last year. Hoping the penalties improve.
We have been among the most penalized teams every year under Babers. Over the last four years we are the most penalized team in the FBS. Huge problem that needs to change. Dino’s teams aren’t very disciplined.
 

FasterCuse

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We have been among the most penalized teams every year under Babers. Over the last four years we are the most penalized team in the FBS. Huge problem that needs to change. Dino’s teams aren’t very disciplined.
This has been one of the biggest surprises to me. With Dino being a military kid, and how he comes across in the media, I would have assumed his teams would be extremely disciplined. I'm wondering if it's just something that comes along with the scheme we run.
 

gmoney44

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This has been one of the biggest surprises to me. With Dino being a military kid, and how he comes across in the media, I would have assumed his teams would be extremely disciplined. I'm wondering if it's just something that comes along with the scheme we run.
I was wondering the same thing or perhaps more of a reflection of the coordinators and position coaches. Ultimately the buck stops at Dino. We must get better. Unexpectable.
 

tipphill

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Coaching was the biggest part of the problem. We fired our DC in season and Lynch is back to coaching a position this year. Our QB coach isnt even coaching. Our coaching cost us big time last year.
i expect that much like our hoops team they will be awful to begin with and get better as the year goes on.
however, i do not expect miracles immediately with this new staff. i give dino two more years, to show significant progress in recruiting and w/l. otherwise the new fast needs to be re-evaluated---
 

sutomcat

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This has been one of the biggest surprises to me. With Dino being a military kid, and how he comes across in the media, I would have assumed his teams would be extremely disciplined. I'm wondering if it's just something that comes along with the scheme we run.
I think there is no question that playing at the tempo we play at contributes to a high penalty rate. You are going to get motion penalties when you play that fast. I can live with those.

It is the other stuff; the holding penalties, the unsportsmanlike conduct, the late hits, offensive and defensive pass interference calls, and all the mental errors lining up off sides or in the wrong place, that are of major concern. We were 128th in penalties last season. Very close to the worst team in FBS.

The coaching staff has to start holding the players accountable and get them more disciplined. It was a huge problem in all areas of our program last year.

Our offense, our defense, and perhaps worst of all, our special teams. It was remarkable To me how often the special teams units were called for penalties. Coach Lustig has done a fine job as the special teams coordinator, and I know we were forced to play a bunch of young players on special teams, but I am pretty sure we set an all time record for the most penalties made by special teams units last season. It was incredibly frustrating to watch.

Hopefully more experience brings smarter play here. Reducing penalties should be a point of emphasis for the entire team during the spring.
 

Bulldog04

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Great post. I really hope that Hendrix can stay healthy this year. I feel like he could be someone to step up and help fill that big time receiver roll we've had the last few years.
this is the guy I’ve been waiting years to see and was most excited about that SU got when he committed. If you’re nickname is the “cheat code” you gotta be goood. Hope he’s healthy
 

tipphill

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I think there is no question that playing at the tempo we play at contributes to a high penalty rate. You are going to get motion penalties when you play that fast. I can live with those.

It is the other stuff; the holding penalties, the unsportsmanlike conduct, the late hits, offensive and defensive pass interference calls, and all the mental errors lining up off sides or in the wrong place, that are of major concern. We were 128th in penalties last season. Very close to the worst team in FBS.

The coaching staff has to start holding the players accountable and get them more disciplined. It was a huge problem in all areas of our program last year.

Our offense, our defense, and perhaps worst of all, our special teams. It was remarkable To me how often the special teams units were called for penalties. Coach Lustig has done a fine job as the special teams coordinator, and I know we were forced to play a bunch of young players on special teams, but I am pretty sure we set an all time record for the most penalties made by special teams units last season. It was incredibly frustrating to watch.

Hopefully more experience brings smarter play here. Reducing penalties should be a point of emphasis for the entire team during the spring.
i am not sure we played at any extra ordinary tempo. it was chaos
 

sutomcat

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i am not sure we played at any extra ordinary tempo. it was chaos
We definitely did.

FYI, we finished 4th in the country in plays per minute last season. The year before we were second. The year before that, we were 1st. And in Dino’s first year, we were 7th.

I think we played at a noticeably slower tempo most of the year to allow Alexander to play with the starters. We didn’t go all out until he left the team. Alexander was bad for the team in a bunch of ways.

Check out the variance with Wake and the speed they play at home and away.

Also, note that we play Georgia Tech and Rutgers next season. They finished last and second last in plays per minute last season, though Rutgers might opt to pick the pace up with Schiano now running things.

 
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rocklloyd

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I’d like to see us stop giving up the big play on 3rd and 15 for first down. I don’t know if any team in the country does it at the rate we do. To me it feels like we’ve led the country in this stat for 20 years.
 

gmoney44

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I’d like to see us stop giving up the big play on 3rd and 15 for first down. I don’t know if any team in the country does it at the rate we do. To me it feels like we’ve led the country in this stat for 20 years.
A big part of the problem is our Team is situationally unaware. They seem to always go for the strip or the turnover causing hit instead of making the tackle. That’s fine on 1st and 2nd down but if they just make the tackle on 3rd and 4th it’s basically a turnover.
 

General Joe

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Coaching was the biggest part of the problem. We fired our DC in season and Lynch is back to coaching a position this year. Our QB coach isnt even coaching. Our coaching cost us big time last year.
Clock management (not using time outs) at the end of both halves cost us points in 3 games atleast.
 

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