Bill Connelly SP+ Ratings for 2020 College Football

[General Joe]

this is the guy I’ve been waiting years to see and was most excited about that SU got when he committed. If you’re nickname is the “cheat code” you gotta be goood. Hope he’s healthy

He tore up DC league in high school. Might be the most talented player we have on offense. Would be great boost if he's healthy

 

[TheCusian]

I’d like to see us stop giving up the big play on 3rd and 15 for first down. I don’t know if any team in the country does it at the rate we do. To me it feels like we’ve led the country in this stat for 20 years.

3rd down % D under Babers:

2016: #82
2017: #13
2018: #7
2019: #101

 

[rocklloyd]

3rd down % D under Babers:

2016: #82
2017: #13
2018: #7
2019: #101

just out of sick curiosity, how far back can you get this data?

 

[TheCusian]

just out of sick curiosity, how far back can you get this data?

2009, using the the quick method - prob a way to dig further back - it's also not opponent adjusted, so some of those BE years had lesser comp

2015: #53
2014: #63
2013: #16
2012: #41
2011: #80
2010: #55
2009: #28

It's not a bad data point for defensive success and explains last years struggles vs the year before and prob why Ward is gone

 

[NineOneSeven]

Couple of points. And some great ones in here, by the way.

- Sure, speed on offense probably trends towards higher penalties but when you're rushing up to the line just to then stare at the sidelines for the play call, I have a hard time contributing penalties to the "speed" of the O. More concerned with penalties out of timeouts. That just shouldn't happen.

- On that topic, I did not see all that much that stood out from a "fast" standpoint last year. Maybe we ran a lot of plays but if I was a neutral observer with no "game notes" going in, I saw little with regards to game speed on O.

- Wide receiver is a big issue for me. We have a million wideouts but quantity doesn't mean quality. The hope is that a higher quantity eventually leads to some standout, quality options. Jackson had an amazing season. I don't see anyone replicating those numbers. Harris should be better. Who steps into the #2 role? Offensive line was bad last year as we all know but we also know we had struggles getting separation at wideout, and a QB who struggled making the appropriate reads, even with time in the pocket (rare) and wideouts getting space. I am more concerned with wideouts than o line.

- Jordan looks like a beast. He's our biggest player maker on offense, imo. The play where he caught it on the sidelines and took it all the way down inside the 5 was all I needed to see.

 

[AngryOtto]

Couple of points. And some great ones in here, by the way.

- Sure, speed on offense probably trends towards higher penalties but when you're rushing up to the line just to then stare at the sidelines for the play call, I have a hard time contributing penalties to the "speed" of the O. More concerned with penalties out of timeouts. That just shouldn't happen.

- On that topic, I did not see all that much that stood out from a "fast" standpoint last year. Maybe we ran a lot of plays but if I was a neutral observer with no "game notes" going in, I saw little with regards to game speed on O.

- Wide receiver is a big issue for me. We have a million wideouts but quantity doesn't mean quality. The hope is that a higher quantity eventually leads to some standout, quality options. Jackson had an amazing season. I don't see anyone replicating those numbers. Harris should be better. Who steps into the #2 role? Offensive line was bad last year as we all know but we also know we had struggles getting separation at wideout, and a QB who struggled making the appropriate reads, even with time in the pocket (rare) and wideouts getting space. I am more concerned with wideouts than o line.

- Jordan looks like a beast. He's our biggest player maker on offense, imo. The play where he caught it on the sidelines and took it all the way down inside the 5 was all I needed to see.

I do feel we will have another receiver step up. It seems every year we hear we lost our number one option and then another player steps up.
I feel one of the reasons Jackson had big numbers is because TD was mostly looking at him.
I hope next year we spread the ball around to multiple receivers instead of one primary option.

 

[tipphill]

We definitely did.

FYI, we finished 4th in the country in plays per minute last season. The year before we were second. The year before that, we were 1st. And in Dino’s first year, we were 7th.

I think we played at a noticeably slower tempo most of the year to allow Alexander to play with the starters. We didn’t go all out until he left the team. Alexander was bad for the team in a bunch of ways.

Check out the variance with Wake and the speed they play at home and away.

Also, note that we play Georgia Tech and Rutgers next season. They finished last and second last in plays per minute last season, though Rutgers might opt to pick the pace up with Schiano now running things.

College Football Stats - College FB Team Plays per Game | TeamRankings.com

College Football plays per game, by team.

www.teamrankings.com

with all the offensive penalties it seemed endless time to get plays off

 

[syrBossHogg]

Bill C has his Syracuse preview up

 

[721Comstock]

OK, so S&P+ = HE HATE ME for 2020.

All of which makes 'sense', coming off of a disappointing '19 season, and losing the guys on D that we do.

That said - I think he VASTLY underrates our win % odds for the first 4-5-6 games of the season.
Basically a 1 out of 3 chance to beat BC?? Who have an entirely new coaching staff?
A pick-em vs. Rutgers? Also new staff, and lost pretty much any talented players they did have to the Portal.
At WMU is a 4 out of 10 chance for a W?? They lost pretty much ALL of their skill guys.

 

[SUskibum]

Will be interesting to see if the oline improvement was due to the reshuffling of players or the weaker pass rushes we faced at the end of the year.

RB and WR should be fine.

The defense has been bad for almost Dino's entire tenure. Add in a brand new scheme and it might be ugly again. Or maybe our players fit better into the new D and show a nice improvement. It can't get much worse can it?

Overall I'm not too high on the win total but we don't play a hard schedule so you never know.

Considering the line played better @L’ville, WF & @Duke than it did against @Liberty, Holy Cross & Western Michigan, I’ll bet the reshuffle of the line (and offensive responsibilities) was a much larger impact.

 

[TheCusian]

Yep - the numbers are based off the year prior, where we largely sucked and underperformed. We then lost a lot of our production from O and D and have new coordinators. I'd be skeptical of any preseason numbers that were good.

All that said, and with my eternal optimism in full pandemic mode, I think we will have a better OL, Sterling and Tommy form a good match, and the D system has its moments. 6-7 wins a bowl. We creep up Connelly's rating as we did in 2018.

 

[CU44SE]

I may be too optimistic, but I would be shocked if we don't make a bowl game this year. I believe that here on out, we will go on a stretch of bowl games for as long as Dino is here.

 

[Doc5120]

Seems as though the schedule is as soft as it's been in quite some time. TJ is a big loss, but we have 37 other WR's, and I feel confident a couple step up. Hendrix and Queeley come to mind. Other than that, everything else on the offensive side of the ball should be much improved. Our O-Line looked very solid after the shuffle, and we potentially add Bleich this year. Moe was reliable, but we have plenty of firepower at RB.

On defense, the loss of Coleman and Robinson worries me, but transitioning to a 3-3-5 somewhat negates losing both of them, since we can shift Black to DE. I love our secondary and I really think our LB's will be very good for the next 3 years, with some young hungry guys ready to step up into bigger roles.

Assuming we stay relatively healthy, I see 8-4. I can see a 2 game swing in either direction, but I'm high on this year's team.

 

[jgeorge322]

Syracuse has the lowest rating in the ACC. Of P5 schools, only Rutgers, Vanderbilt and Kansas have lower ratings.

Based on this, we are going to be favored to win 2, possibly 3 games.

I will argue that the biggest issue for the offense was the OL, and it was solved late in the season. We have 4 starters back from that much improved lineup of OL and it is highly likely Bleich will be given immediate eligibility, so we would have 5 experienced returning starters.

Losing Mo, Trishton and Riley really hurts our production numbers returning but we are loaded at RB and there is little doubt in my mind we will get as good or better production from the RBs returning than we got from Mo. Abdul, Traveon and Jawhar have a lot of potential. One thing Sterlin has done consistently as an OC is run the ball successfully. I expect with an improved OL and a better OC, we will see improvement here in 2020.

I am more worried about production at WR. Taj, Nakeim and Aaron are a nice group to start with but we need a couple of other players to step up. I think Benson will definitely be a featured part of the offense and often be on the field with Aaron. He might benefit more from Trish leaving than anyone. We still need a WR or two to step up. I don’t know who will but the good news is we have a lot of WRs on the roster, all have talent and it is probable at least one emerges as a reliable weapon. And there is still the possibility we get a late transfer.

So we will likely have some problems getting our WRs open again but we will surely have much better pass blocking, I think having a more experienced OC will again help, Tommy should be better after a year of adversity and I think we end passing a lot more to our talented TEs and RBs. Especially Jordan. So I think we are improved in the passing game as well.

On defense, things don‘t look great on paper, We lose Robinson and Coleman at DE, Ruff at DT, Armstrong and Williams at LB and Foster at SS. Plus we are changing schemes and should expect some growing pains. But other P5 schools have switched to the 3-3-5 and seen improvements immediately. I am talking about Iowa State and Arizona State here. Kingsley Jonathan played at the same level as Robinson and Coleman and we have a bevy of well regarded young DEs to fill out the depth chart. We go from needing 4 starting DL to 3, which also helps address depth issues here. With McKinley Williams and Curtis Harper in the middle and Black likely able to play both NT and DE, we have 4 guys with a ton of PT to build around and should be okay. Though a late transfer DT would be a great addition.

We lost our starting LBs but return Mikel Jones, who played a lot and looked very promising (and well suited to the 3-3-5). Richards has gotten a lot of PT for 2 years and is another guy whose skill set appears well suited for the new scheme. Wallace looked good in limited PT last year. We have a number of fine young LBs to throw into the fray. Cantin-Arku and Kpogba in particular are likely to get PT. Both wowed in limited playing time last season. We have a bunch of guys who have speed and raw athletic ability. This is what the 3-3-5 scheme needs to work.

At secondary, Frederick, Cordy and Foster are gone. But our best CB, Iffy is back. Our second best cover guy, Trill Williams is back. Our AA FS Andre Cisco is back. Eric Coley quietly finished 6th on the team in tackles, played a lot last season and will likely be the SS. Stritzinger has played a lot the last 2 seasons and could play nickel (likely) or SS for us. And we have a bunch of well regarded youngsters who will fight for spots on the two deep. We have a lot of experience at all positions and should be fine. Though it should be noted no one on the team has ever played the new, as yet unnamed hybrid LB/S position that comes with the 3-3-5. But we have a bunch of players who could fill in here (I think that position basically replaces our nickelback we used when we played a 4-2-5). They aren’t the same positions at all but Trill and Striz are probably going to be shots at it.

Anyway, long post to say that while it is true we are not returning a ton of production, there is a lot of experience that is returning, way more than you would think just looking at things like starts. I think we are dramatically underrated here.

Alabama tops preseason SP+ college football rankings

The first version of SP+ rankings for 2020 has Alabama at No. 1 and is surprisingly high on Texas. Where does your team fit?

www.espn.com

mo and triston hurt. Riely not so much. Mo is a good back but replaceable. Need to find some wrs. Agree on the line. Well win 8 imho.

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

I can’t stand Connolly.

O line will be better. TEs a strength. WR big question mark. Everyone but Trish sucked last year. That’s where this has credence because I’d watch an Air Force game and their WRs would look better than ours. But we won 10 games with those guys year prior. Jahwar and Adams could really open up the offense.

Devito is the 2nd best ACC QB imo.


The overrated secondary that let us down last year needs to bounce back if they do we’ll be in good shape on D. ACC does not have good QBs we are going up against run first teams these guys should do well in the new scheme. But I can see focusing on losing the entire DL.

This makes sense but I’m optimistic. Start 2-0 and a 10 win season is very very likely.

Hopefully Szymyt is back to his 2018 form. We won’t have the best punter next year unfortunately but it would be great to have the best kicker again.

 

[Doc5120]

I can’t stand Connolly.

O line will be better. TEs a strength. WR big question mark. Everyone but Trish sucked last year. That’s where this has credence because I’d watch an Air Force game and their WRs would look better than ours. But we won 10 games with those guys year prior. Jahwar and Adams could really open up the offense.

Devito is the 2nd best ACC QB imo.


The overrated secondary that let us down last year needs to bounce back if they do we’ll be in good shape on D. ACC does not have good QBs we are going up against run first teams these guys should do well in the new scheme. But I can see focusing on losing the entire DL.

This makes sense but I’m optimistic. Start 2-0 and a 10 win season is very very likely.

Hopefully Szymyt is back to his 2018 form. We won’t have the best punter next year unfortunately but it would be great to have the best kicker again.

Agree with a lot of your points here. I think we'll be OK at WR though. Too many guys on the roster to not have someone(s) turn into real threats.

I really like our secondary. Iffy and Cisco were hurt last year for a portion of the season. Having a healthy secondary will be key. The 2 of them and Trill are the best we've had in a long time.

My concern is getting to opposing QB's. If we can do that, I think we're in for a good season. I trust in Josh Black and some people speak highly of Tuazama. We also have Jonathan, who I believe is very underrated because he played behind Robinson & Coleman.

 

[TheCusian]

I can’t stand Connolly.

O line will be better. TEs a strength. WR big question mark. Everyone but Trish sucked last year. That’s where this has credence because I’d watch an Air Force game and their WRs would look better than ours. But we won 10 games with those guys year prior. Jahwar and Adams could really open up the offense.

Devito is the 2nd best ACC QB imo.


The overrated secondary that let us down last year needs to bounce back if they do we’ll be in good shape on D. ACC does not have good QBs we are going up against run first teams these guys should do well in the new scheme. But I can see focusing on losing the entire DL.

This makes sense but I’m optimistic. Start 2-0 and a 10 win season is very very likely.

Hopefully Szymyt is back to his 2018 form. We won’t have the best punter next year unfortunately but it would be great to have the best kicker again.

Overrated secondary?