Bill Connelly SP+

[upperdeck]

Really trying to understand how we could be worse on Offense and much worse on Defense in his measurements from last year to this year.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Really trying to understand how we could be worse on Offense and much worse on Defense in his measurements from last year to this year.

Well, you see, a person like Connelly has to make certain types of assumptions when developing their model, and those assumptions result in a range of possibilities which tend to skew toward the mean given enough trials. Since we weren't great, his model likely overweights the bowl performance, suggesting a very negative trend, thus, these results.

That said, fools like Connelly often overlook certain statistical certainties, including one key, primary certainty - I'll see Bill Connelly in Hell.

 

[orange_in_VA]

He was very wrong about this team in 2018 and it doesn't help having a HC with no historic metrics to measure. I mean, to be fair we don't even have an experienced OC or DC to measure. However, I think the basement for this team is 7-5 and the ceiling is undefeated based on the talent. None of us knows what to expect with the coaching but obviously we feel good about that aspect. Excited to prove everyone wrong

 

[tep624]

Really trying to understand how we could be worse on Offense and much worse on Defense in his measurements from last year to this year.

I’m going with laziness.

 

[kcsu]

Garbage in Garbage out.

 

[All4SU]

All things being equal, assume incompetence.

 

[upperdeck]

At least Phil Steel has us improving on offense by close to a TD a game.

 

[AngryOtto]

None of these talking heads really pay attention to Syracuse. To be fair outside of 10 programs it doesn’t appear they have a handle on most programs.
After the last 20 years the only way Syracuse is going to get respect is showing it on the field. I feel Fran realizes that and is doing what is necessary to get the program back to where it belongs. Syracuse fans see things are changing which is making the diehard fans so excited.

 

[TheCusian]

Really trying to understand how we could be worse on Offense and much worse on Defense in his measurements from last year to this year.

Not hard. New coach + historically mid to poor results + historically lower end recruiting.

by week 4 we’ll be up 50 spots in both but behind historically better programs - guy used to some interesting things - but weighs things too heavily on past seasons

 

[Whitey23]

Bill will be the first to tell you that it takes time for the rankings to get in line in a new season.

The primary factors are returning production, recruiting and recent history. All things that are not in Cuse's favor (or in many teams in the new environment.)

No point in getting bent out of shape over them at this point of the season. Check back after week 4 maybe.

 

[cusefan88]

Bill will be the first to tell you that it takes time for the rankings to get in line in a new season.

The primary factors are returning production, recruiting and recent history. All things that are not in Cuse's favor (or in many teams in the new environment.)

No point in getting bent out of shape over them at this point of the season. Check back after week 4 maybe.

Agree. The inputs for Cuse to start are poor from last year with unknown coaching staff. We'll know more probably after the Stanford game.

 

[javadoc]

Bill will be the first to tell you that it takes time for the rankings to get in line in a new season.

The primary factors are returning production, recruiting and recent history. All things that are not in Cuse's favor (or in many teams in the new environment.)

No point in getting bent out of shape over them at this point of the season. Check back after week 4 maybe.

All true, yet I find it hard to believe that including McCord's production from last year, and OG's from two years ago, doesn't increase the predictions significantly.

 

[djorange1989]

Putting the likes of Illinois, Cincy and Mississippi State ahead of us is laughable

 

[tep624]

Bill will be the first to tell you that it takes time for the rankings to get in line in a new season.

The primary factors are returning production, recruiting and recent history. All things that are not in Cuse's favor (or in many teams in the new environment.)

No point in getting bent out of shape over them at this point of the season. Check back after week 4 maybe.

I get that he has a system, but the point of putting something like this out now is to attempt to accurately predict the season. You don't do that by just swallowing the past and regurgitating it.

 

[rocklloyd]

Which game do we lose that we all think we are winning right now? There’s always one head scratcher.

 

[Sdot]

Which game do we lose that we all think we are winning right now? There’s always one head scratcher.

Virginia tech or cal

 

[syrBossHogg]

Bill will be the first to tell you that it takes time for the rankings to get in line in a new season.

The primary factors are returning production, recruiting and recent history. All things that are not in Cuse's favor (or in many teams in the new environment.)

No point in getting bent out of shape over them at this point of the season. Check back after week 4 maybe.

Exactly. This is a tough team for his model to project

 

[Whitey23]

I get that he has a system, but the point of putting something like this out now is to attempt to accurately predict the season. You don't do that by just swallowing the past and regurgitating it.

I think that his system has shown that more often than not those 3 factors are the leading indicators for how a season turns out. There are always circumstances where a team (like 2018) breaks out, but his system is consistent and repeatable and doesn't take into account one person's eyeballs.

 

[upperdeck]

Its just interesting because Steele thinks the offense will be vastly better and this system has it worse.

really we could be better offense and not be a better team. But he had an offense last year we win 8 games and not even a good offense, just one with a QB.

 

[bnoro]

Its just interesting because Steele thinks the offense will be vastly better and this system has it worse.

really we could be better offense and not be a better team. But he had an offense last year we win 8 games and not even a good offense, just one with a QB.

SP+ is a statistical prediction system. It doesn't care what people think and judges based on explosiveness in the previous season until about week 6.

Connolly himself always laughs at the people that think he's biased against their school. Instead of attacking it, why not just read about his methodology?

 

[orangefog]

SP+ is a statistical prediction system. It doesn't care what people think and judges based on explosiveness in the previous season until about week 6.

Connolly himself always laughs at the people that think he's biased against their school. Instead of attacking it, why not just read about his methodology?

Because...you know, reading?

 

[upperdeck]

I am not attacking his system at all. Just surprised that the system would thing we would regress when you factor in Adding one of the top WR/TEs in the country back into the offense and adding a QB that threw for 3000 yds. I'm Not even caring if the oline has improved off all the injuries there which it could.

The issue I see is that its hugely based in recruiting and returning production and it has us very high in offense returning production and top 1/3 in defense and yet both metrics have us being worse when his statements about the metrics say we should be better

I do wonder how OG figures in since he barely played

 

[bnoro]

I am not attacking his system at all. Just surprised that the system would thing we would regress when you factor in Adding one of the top WR/TEs in the country back into the offense and adding a QB that threw for 3000 yds. I'm Not even caring if the oline has improved off all the injuries there which it could.

The issue I see is that its hugely based in recruiting and returning production and it has us very high in offense returning production and top 1/3 in defense and yet both metrics have us being worse when his statements about the metrics say we should be better

I do wonder how OG figures in since he barely played

Which of our WRs put up explosive receiving numbers last year? Which of our current TEs put up explosive receiving numbers last year? LeQuint also didn't put up very explosive rushing numbers.

It's based on numbers. We don't have a lot of guys with numbers.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

SP+ is a statistical prediction system. It doesn't care what people think and judges based on explosiveness in the previous season until about week 6.

Connolly himself always laughs at the people that think he's biased against their school. Instead of attacking it, why not just read about his methodology?

Because I get a lot of likes when I post that I'll see people in Hell.

 

[AngryOtto]

Which of our WRs put up explosive receiving numbers last year? Which of our current TEs put up explosive receiving numbers last year? LeQuint also didn't put up very explosive rushing numbers.

It's based on numbers. We don't have a lot of guys with numbers.

LeQuint rushed for over a 1,000 yards. Agree the receivers numbers were poor.