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Bubble Watch - Conf Tourney Saturday (Still Alive)
- Thread starter jncuse
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they have 3 neutral site wins as well
Cuse House
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Seth Davis seems to think there is a possibility of Duke and UNC on the 1 line.
obliterata
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I hope Duke gets a one seed, that might help our chances a bit.
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If that happens, I guess Kansas becomes a 2 seed.
Cuse House
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I would say Gonzaga. Let's be honest, they play the weakest schedule out of any potential one or two seeds. I know they played a few good OOC games, but for the majority of the year their toughest competition is St. Mary's.
Cusefan0307
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The same guy who says we shouldn't get in because we didn't win road games thinks Duke deserves a 1 with 3 road wins.
Cuse House
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Well if the committee is consistent, then our road wins shouldn't keep us out.
djorange1989
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Duke isn't getting a 1. Could be Kentucky if they win tomorrow to go with Nova, KU and Gonzaga.
djorange1989
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The same guy who said we would lose to Western Michigan in the 2014 first round
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I'm not a computer numbers guy all that much, I just look at what happens on the court. I'm not saying computer numbers aren't important, they are, I'm just saying I'm not a lover of them.
OOC SU had the worst loss and the most bad losses, WF didn't have any bad losses.
OOC SU had the best win but WF had more quality wins.
In the ACC SU had the worst loss and the best win.
SU was 3-4 versus the top 6 in the ACC, WF was 1-6. The top 6 were virtual locks a month ago and separated themselves from the rest.
SU was 4-2 versus the bottom 4 in the ACC , WF was 6-2.
SU was 2-7 on the road in the ACC, WF was 3-6.
In the ACC SU finished tied for 7th, WF finished 10th.
SU beat WF.
SU beat the ACC Champions, WF didn't.
SU may have beaten a one seed, that's to be determined after 5:30PM.
All in all I think Syracuse has done better than Wake Forest but the computers love them. I wouldn't put them in front of us but the committee might.
Cuse House
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jdubs30
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Wow he has us in ? That legit makes me nervous
Cuse House
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Well he said he wouldn't have us in, but he thinks the committee will put us in.
jncuse
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Good enough for me.
East-MSG
1. Villanova
2. Duke
3. West Virginia
4: Florida
South
1. North Carolina
2. Kentucky
3. UCLA
4. SMU/Cincy winner
Midwest
1. Kansas
2. Oregon
3. Louisville
4. Purdue or Notre Dame
West
1. Gonzaga
2. Arizona
3. Baylor
4. Florida State
The 4 seed line this year is incredibly weak.
1. Villanova
2. Duke
3. West Virginia
4: Florida
South
1. North Carolina
2. Kentucky
3. UCLA
4. SMU/Cincy winner
Midwest
1. Kansas
2. Oregon
3. Louisville
4. Purdue or Notre Dame
West
1. Gonzaga
2. Arizona
3. Baylor
4. Florida State
The 4 seed line this year is incredibly weak.
cliftonparksufan
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Maybe you can fix your VCR clock from flashing 00:00.
wallacecuse
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Not sure if it has been mentioned, but Duke's AD is on the committee. Hopefully, that win over them burns in his mind...
Knicks411
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Well they also have 7 neutral site wins.
Cusefan0307
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I get that, but I also think there's different criteria for different schools. Jncuse could rob ably explain better than me.
I think Duke has a better case for a 1 seed than North Carolina.
Duke played the top 9 ACC teams on the road.
UNC played 5 of the top 9 ACC teams on the road.
That probably tacked one or two extra loses on Duke and saved UNC an extra loss.
Both way played tough nonconference schedules.
UNC beat Wisconsin, Tennessee, Davidson, Monmouth, Oklahoma State.
Duke beat Michigan State, Rhode Island, Florida, Penn State,
UNC went 15-5 in ACC play.
Duke went 15-7 in ACC play.
I can reasonably say the difference is the road schedules.
North Carolina won an unbalanced regular season title
Duke won the conference title. Beating Clemson-Louisville-North Carolina-Notre Dame on consecutive days.
Duke beat North Carolina 2 of 3 times. Including tiebreaker on neutral court.
All of this to me adds up to reasonably concluding Duke could or maybe should be above North Carolina on the S-Curve.
Duke played the top 9 ACC teams on the road.
UNC played 5 of the top 9 ACC teams on the road.
That probably tacked one or two extra loses on Duke and saved UNC an extra loss.
Both way played tough nonconference schedules.
UNC beat Wisconsin, Tennessee, Davidson, Monmouth, Oklahoma State.
Duke beat Michigan State, Rhode Island, Florida, Penn State,
UNC went 15-5 in ACC play.
Duke went 15-7 in ACC play.
I can reasonably say the difference is the road schedules.
North Carolina won an unbalanced regular season title
Duke won the conference title. Beating Clemson-Louisville-North Carolina-Notre Dame on consecutive days.
Duke beat North Carolina 2 of 3 times. Including tiebreaker on neutral court.
All of this to me adds up to reasonably concluding Duke could or maybe should be above North Carolina on the S-Curve.
I have a hard time giving a 1 seed to a team that finished 5th in the regular season.
Knicks411
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There could be something to that, but Duke also battled injury issues over the course of the season and they look whole right now. One seed good? I dunno, i get what youre saying
my top 4 by region:
East:
1- Villanova
2-Duke
3-UCLA
4-Florida
Midwest:
1-Kansas
2-Oregon
3-Louisvill
4-Notre Dame
South:
1-North Carolina
2-Kentucky
3-Baylor
4-Butler
West:
1- Gonzaga
2-Arizona
3-Florida State
4-West Virginia
last 4 in :
Providence vs Rhode Island (if lose today) or Wake Forest into west region 12 seed in buffalo playing Virginia
Syracuse Vs USC in south region playing in tulsa vs acc loser
East:
1- Villanova
2-Duke
3-UCLA
4-Florida
Midwest:
1-Kansas
2-Oregon
3-Louisvill
4-Notre Dame
South:
1-North Carolina
2-Kentucky
3-Baylor
4-Butler
West:
1- Gonzaga
2-Arizona
3-Florida State
4-West Virginia
last 4 in :
Providence vs Rhode Island (if lose today) or Wake Forest into west region 12 seed in buffalo playing Virginia
Syracuse Vs USC in south region playing in tulsa vs acc loser
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Dukes rpi is right there in the range of teams that could snag a #1.
Also, they have an easy out for some of those losses earlier in the season with their injuries and K being out for a few games.
The committee always loves Conf tourney winners. Especially one who took down the murderers row that Duke just went through.
It seems crazy to think they could be a 5 in the ACC and a 1 in the NCAAs, but there is a strong case to be made. Wouldn't surprise me at all.
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