Bubble Watch - Last Weekend of Regular Season

[jncuse]

Saturday's biggest winners (so far): Seton Hall, Syracuse, Vandy, Wake Forest. Biggest losers: Georgia Tech, Cal, Georgia. Status quo: Xavier, Rhode Island, K-State.

I am surprised he has us in the group of biggest winners. Those other 3 had big wins. But we maintained our spot which I guess makes us a winner.

Agree with his loser list except he leaves out Illinois. How can losing to Rutgers not make you a big loser? He probably just omitted them accidentally. Georgia Tech I agree as a loser because they needed something big (like a quality road win) and missed.

 

[jdubs30]

We were in a good spot coming into today.

We won by 30 against a fellow bubble team/top 100 RPI team.


Hall, Marquette, PC, Vandy (IMO) were already in.

No one below us jumped over us. And at that - there were about 7 teams that had to pass us to challenege our spot in the field.

A lot of crazy stuff has to happen for us to be knocked out now. Its certainly possible - but we're in the drivers seat.

 

[orangenirvana]

OK OrangeNirvana. You said "no way" would the MVC get two bids. I'll bet you $50, $75, $100 whatever you want to bet (straight up) that the MVC gets two bids, regardless of the outcome of the MVC title game tomorrow. What do you say?

As an aside, watched Palm and Seth Davis on CBSSN about a half hour ago and both said Wichita State was not a sure thing yet to get an invite. Couple of stunods.

I think Wichita State gets an at-large if Illinois State wins. I don't think Illinois State gets an at-large if WSU wins.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

If they beat St. Mary's on a neutral court, they would be 6-6 vs the top 100, including 3 top 50 wins (although one is Vermont), and 2 top 25 wins on road or neutral courts.

Before you say it's just Gonzaga or St. Mary's they are legit top 25 teams under the numerical systems they have decided to trust.

That is definetely a resume that will be considered against some crappy P5 teams or an Illinois St for example.

They have 2 things going against them
1. They do have 3 really bad losses which will work against them... but let's forget there are teams that are in as of now that have 3 bad losses as well.
2. They lost close games on neutral courts to Illinois and USC, so there performance against the rest of the bubble will hurt them.

So if they beat St Mary's I would expect them to still come short, but not by much... and it would have nothing to do with the eye test.

Gotta love a soft bubble, I guess.

They're not very good.

 

[jncuse]

We were in a good spot coming into today.

We won by 30 against a fellow bubble team/top 100 RPI team.


Hall, Marquette, PC, Vandy (IMO) were already in.

No one below us jumped over us. And at that - there were about 7 teams that had to pass us to challenege our spot in the field.

A lot of crazy stuff has to happen for us to be knocked out now. Its certainly possible - but we're in the drivers seat.

I see where you are going but above 7 teams seems high. (i.e. 8th last team in).seems high.

Then the other concern is not if 7 teams can catch us, but if the committee has us at that point to start next week.

 

[bpo57]

I think Wichita State gets an at-large if Illinois State wins. I don't think Illinois State gets an at-large if WSU wins.

I guess that's an adjustment from "no way the MVC gets two bids." And I'll take your response as a decline of the bet offer. Let me know if you reconsider.

 

[jncuse]

Just taking the most conservative position as to how the "committee" sees us in terms of listing. Remember we have some massive warts.

Last 10 Teams on Committee Listing Entering Next Week
Marquette
Michigan St
Providence
Seton Hall
Wake Forest
Xavier
USC
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
Rhode Island
------- In/Out-----


If you are start off with the assumption that we are anywhere above 5th on that list we are in good shape with a loss to Miami. We likely can't get caught.

Anywhere 2 or below on that list we are very exposed with a loss to Miami. We are also exposed at the 3 spot, and a tad exposed at the 4 spot. Bubble busters (Wichita St, MTSU, AAC, A-10) , any of 1 of the following making a major move next week (Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Cal, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Kansas St, Georgia)

We can certainly make a good argument that we are above 3 teams on that list. But I don't think it's a given that we start at #4 in the committee's view. That is the issue in my mind.

In my view this is the bottom five.
Xavier
USC
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
Rhode Island

Are we sure we are #1 or #2 on that list -- per the committee?

 

[Chris02M]

Just taking the most conservative position as to how the "committee" sees us in terms of listing. Remember we have some massive warts.

Last 10 Teams on Committee Listing Entering Next Week
Marquette
Michigan St
Providence
Seton Hall
Wake Forest
Xavier
USC
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
Rhode Island
------- In/Out-----


If you are start off with the assumption that we are anywhere above 5th on that list we are in good shape with a loss to Miami. We likely can't get caught.

Anywhere 2 or below on that list we are very exposed with a loss to Miami. We are also exposed at the 3 spot, and a tad exposed at the 4 spot. Bubble busters (Wichita St, MTSU, AAC, A-10) , any of 1 of the following making a major move next week (Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Cal, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Kansas St, Georgia)

We can certainly make a good argument that we are above 3 teams on that list. But I don't think it's a given that we start at #4 in the committee's view. That is the issue in my mind.

In my view this is the bottom five.
Xavier
USC
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
Rhode Island

Are we sure we are #1 or #2 on that list -- per the committee?

wake should be in the group with us i have us and vandy above the rest of the group just on top end wins then a decent gap then wake then another gap with xavier,usc,rhode island, kansas State and the Iowa/Illinois winner in their tourney in another group then group where they will have to make semis of their tourney to have a chance which includes Cal,Georgia Tech,Indiana,Ge3orgia,Clemson,Byu

 

[Chris02M]

i also have a hold spot in my bracket in case wichita loses to illinois state

 

[sabach]

I am surprised he has us in the group of biggest winners. Those other 3 had big wins. But we maintained our spot which I guess makes us a winner.

Agree with his loser list except he leaves out Illinois. How can losing to Rutgers not make you a big loser? He probably just omitted them accidentally. Georgia Tech I agree as a loser because they needed something big (like a quality road win) and missed.

We played a fellow bubble team and beat them by 29 to give us 10 wins in the best conference in the country. Has a 10 win ACC team ever been left out?

 

[HakAttack]

Is there a scenario people see where Wake could get in, but we wouldn't?

 

[Chris02M]

Is there a scenario people see where Wake could get in, but we wouldn't?

we lose to miami, wake makes a run to friday night beating va tech and fsu and there are 2-3 bid thiefs and/or runs by teams on the wrong side of bubble that we miss

 

[Briancuse]

Is there a scenario people see where Wake could get in, but we wouldn't?

Probably not, Wake winning makes our win over them look even better, I think it pushes someone else out.

 

[OrangeDW]

I drank some bubble tea while watching the game today. Amazingly it just dawned on me. Maybe that's the ticket going forward.

 

[jncuse]

Is there a scenario people see where Wake could get in, but we wouldn't?

My current view is that the committee has Wake above us (but that may not be the case either). Since I believe they are ahead on the committee s-curve, I think they are better positioned to absorb a loss to Tech, than we are to absorb a loss to Miami. It really comes down to how low either Wake or Syracuse are on the list as of now. If both teams are high enough both can survive a loss in the first real ACC game (BC doesn't count0. But if the committee views either as last 3 in entering next week, then they need to win that game.

Say these are the final 10 teams
Seton Hall
Providence
Marquette
Michigan St
Wake Forest
Syracuse
Xavier
USC
Vanderbilt
Rhode Island

We need to be ahead of at least 3 in the committee's eyes to feel good about next week. I feel comfortable putting us ahead of at least 4 teams, but I don't feel comfortable that the committee sees it like that.

 

[jncuse]

Probably not, Wake winning makes our win over them look even better, I think it pushes someone else out.

I think you will find many people that currently have Wake above Syracuse. (Check the matrix tomorrow) You will see some both ways I suspect, as they are not far apart.

 

[Chris02M]

I think you will find many people that currently have Wake above Syracuse. (Check the matrix tomorrow)

Even though are top 50 wins are better

 

[jncuse]

Even though are top 50 wins are better

That can be diminished however.

- 6 vs 3
- Monmouth... meh, should that be a difference maker. 5 vs 3
- Syracuse has played 2 more top 50 ACC teams at home due to unbalanced ACC schedule. That is a fairly big advantage. At the same time if Wake had the opportunity vs Florida St and Virginia can you expect 2 wins. Nope.
- Wake is the only one with a road win in the top 50.
- 2-1 vs Common Top 50 opponents at home. (Wake's only other opportunity was vs UNC)

So yes Syracuse stays ahead in the factor, but it has been minimized a tad. Road Wins, OOC SOS, Team Rankings are all a nice lead for Wake Forest. Ir depends if they diminish Wake's road wins for playing lesser teams on the road, but that is something they have always said they like.

Syracuse does have the head to head which some can see as the tiebreaker... that could come to our advantage if we are the absolute last 2.

At the same time I think someone that sees Syracuse above is making a reasonable judgment as well.

 

[jncuse]

We played a fellow bubble team and beat them by 29 to give us 10 wins in the best conference in the country. Has a 10 win ACC team ever been left out?

1. We played a weak bubble team and beat then at home. It wasn't a mover in my view in terms of resume. If someone had us low on the in line it would not likely move us out of a danger position. At the same time we maintained our position which is all we could ask.. We are just not sure if the committee has us as last 3 in right now (which would be a posiiton of real exposure) or above that which is certainly possible.

2. In terms of my optimism heading into the ACC tourney I feel much better . I feel we are well positioned to have a good chance against anybody on Wednesday..

3. And 10-8 teams have missed the tourney from the ACC. Several teams. And for the same reason we would miss (if we did). Because they sucked OOC. (The good thing for us is the ACC was a step above this year compared to recent years) so 10 wins this years means more than the past 4 years.

It has happened 5 times in the 4 years there has been an 18 game schedule.

2016 Viriginia Tech
2016 Clemson
2915 Miami
2014 Clemson
2013 Virginia (11 wins)

 

[jncuse]

It was funner (yes funner is not a word) last year when I was trying to create optimism . But I feel I bring a little caution at this point. Namely Committee Judgment and their application of the primary factors.

I will also take the same stand by end of tomorrow as I did last year. I will not talk about any "if we lose next game" scenarios on Monday or Tuesday. Don't want to being any negativity a few days ahead of the game.

There will not be many important games before ours on Wednesday anyway, so there will be nothing new to discuss on Monday or Tuesday.

 

[pearl31]

Is there a scenario people see where Wake could get in, but we wouldn't?

Yes.

 

[pearl31]

It was funner (yes funner is not a word) last year when I was trying to create optimism . But I feel I bring a little caution at this point. Namely Committee Judgment and their application of the primary factors.

was just going to post something similar. Last year you, I, and a few others were feverishly trying to demonstrate that there was a legitimate chance for SU to make the field... it's pretty much the opposite this year - it seems the prevailing narrative that has emerged here (and with alot of the national talking heads, etc) is that SU "has to" be in now with the Duke win and today's GT win... I had maintained for a while that if our record ended up 10-8 we would probably need one more in Brooklyn - that may or not end up being the case, it's very close, and as you have done a good job of pointing out over the past week, our chances truly could hinge upon committee judgement or lack thereof -
I still feel like leaving Brooklyn without a win essentially leaves us with a 50/50 proposition - and sitting on the edge of our collective seat as the Indianas and Georgias of the world play their conference tourney games

 

[jncuse]

Since all my posts have been overly cautious, here is the positive version.

It is very plausible that if the committee met today it has it like this for the last 6 teams in

1.Syracuse
2-6. Vanderbilt, Wake, Xavier, USC, Rhode Island.

If we are #1 on that list I find it very hard to think we will get caught with a loss vs Miami,
- Lack of Bubble Busters
- Lack of Quality P5 resumes that are within 1 quality win (or even 2) of overtaking us,

So there are definetely some scenarios out there that we are in already in before we start the week.

 

[CaptainJ]

Since all my posts have been overly cautious, here is the positive version.

I feel a kinship with other cautious posters, and will make an attempt to like your posts, as long as I can remember. I like this post particularly though, because I agree with the logic.

I'm not sure if anyone has mentioned it yet, but I think there could be scenarios where a close loss to Miami could play out differently than if they did to us what the Bolsheviks did to Eastern Europe at the end of WW2. Hopefully though, we dont have to test that theory out!

 

[jncuse]

Based on yesterday's matrix 26 or 45 had Illinois St as a 12 seed or missing the tourney. On the other hand 5 of 45 had Wichita St as a 12 seed or missing the tourney. It's quite possible that many of those 12 seeds saw them as a conference champ (and not at large), as a common tiebreaker for some is RPI and Illinois had a higher RPI than Wichita St.

Either way if we trust the matrix, Illinois St is maybe a tad below 50% as at an large and Wichita St is over 90% as an at large. So it's possible they still get 2, but Illinois St is a clear unknown. Go SHOCKERS!

Other then that it's a pretty laid back day. You have Iowa at home as a 6 point favourite against Penn St., to maintain their position.

Long shot bubble buster UNC Wilmington and unlikely at large team Houston play fairly routine games at home.