Bubble Watch - March 10

[jncuse]

Not too much action tomorrow - we can't really drop our spot tomorrow. Friday will be the big day.

List of teams that I believe are not locks and the teams that could get an at-large by not winning the conference title. Some teams like USC and Pitt became locks yesterday. Teams like Stanford and Florida St who were longshots, are now eliminated. Valparaiso has also been removed as an large possibility as only 1 person who submitted a bracket had them in.

(Note - I will adjust the rankings as necessary tomorrow -- this is a guess)

Rankings based on the 55 submissions from today on the Matrix
Bold plays Thursday, Underlined Italics are Done


In, but not locked in my view (brackets out of 55)
Oregon St (54) - vs Cal
Vanderbilt (54) - vs Tennessee
Cincinnati (53)
St. Joes (52)
St. Bonaventure (51)
UConn (47)
VCU (44)
Wichita St (41)
St. Mary's (30)
Tulsa (25)

OUT
Syracuse (22)
Monmouth (20)
Temple (Need at Least 2 Wins)
Georgia Tech (5) (Likely need 2 wins, maybe 1 but unlikely) vs Virginia
Valparaiso (4)
Michigan (3) (Need at least 2 wins) - vs Northwestern
Florida (3) (Need at Least 2 Wins) vs Arkansas
George Washington (3) (Need to Reach A-10 final)



Longer Shot Teams Playing Tomorrow
Ohio St (Need at least 2 wins) - vs Penn St
Alabama (Need at least 3 wins) - vs Ole Miss
Virginia Tech (Need at least 2 more wins) - vs Miami

 

[pearl31]

will be really, really interesting to see what they do with middling p5 teams (SU, et al) vs the mid-major bubble busters Monmouth/Valpo/St.Marys/WichSt.

 

[Briancuse]

How is Sbu ahead of us?

 

[jncuse]

How is Sbu ahead of us?

Yep. I think it's hard to distinguish one over the other.

Lunardi or others may have us as last team out tonight -- but is that really the case when St. Bonaventure is one of the last in? Who knows.

 

[CaptainJ]

After looking at that list, I find it hard to to see how some folks on here can be so certain we're out, unless those samples you based list on are guessing the committee will give too much weight to JB's absence. A couple of teams currently edging us out are ones we have the head to head against, so it would seem like we have a decent shot unless some of those at least 2 wins teams get on a roll.

Either way, I appreciate your effort keeping these lists updated for us.

 

[jdubs30]

jncuse what does the Oregon State game do today? Obviously a win vs. Cal would lock them in -- but would a loss drop them below us?

Vandy will probably win, but that's not a great win so it won't do much damage

 

[orangenirvana]

jncuse what does the Oregon State game do today? Obviously a win vs. Cal would lock them in -- but would a loss drop them below us?

Vandy will probably win, but that's not a great win so it won't do much damage

Oregon State is a lock. They won't be dropping below SU. Currently a 9 seed on bracketmatrix, and a loss to Cal won't effect that.

A Vanderbilt loss today would be swell.

Virginia Tech is beginning to worry me. They're on fire right now.

 

[jncuse]

Oregon State is a lock. They won't be dropping below SU. Currently a 9 seed on bracketmatrix, and a loss to Cal won't effect that.

A Vanderbilt loss today would be swell.

Virginia Tech is beginning to worry me. They're on fire right now.

Theoretically it really depends on what you think of Oregon St and Syracuse before this week. If you thought Oregon St was ahead, then they going to stay ahead. Certainly on the matrix they stay ahead no matter what at this point.

But it is the one P5 team that I think may not be ahead of us in reality (as of today), and I personally would move them ahead after today. There entire resume is based on beating a handful of Pac12 teams at home. They need something good away from home.

 

[jncuse]

jncuse what does the Oregon State game do today? Obviously a win vs. Cal would lock them in -- but would a loss drop them below us?

Vandy will probably win, but that's not a great win so it won't do much damage

I think Vandy has done enough good to get in (and some may reasonably disagree), so today is just about avoiding a bad loss. This is a pure nuisance game for them today -- it will not help them, but it can certainly hurt them.

 

[jncuse]

Sample of 30 latest submissions has been updated.

 

[jncuse]

A simple thought but one that doesn't seem to get considered much this week. We are all focused on the teams that can catch us, many of which have a lot of work to do. The notion that we can't catch teams because we are no longer playing is incorrect. Many teams just above us on the matrix have yet to even play a game until tomorrow. They have done nothing, but somehow passed us after we lost to a tourney team. What happens when they lose their first game against a quality school this week or better yet if they lose to a non tourney team.

THERE ARE MANY TEAMS THAT STILL HAVE TO LOSE THIS WEEK. We have been punished for our loss to a tourney team already.

Of course the sample is 30 Lunardi's, making moves on the line just to make moves. And i have been one of them in years. It's the nature of the biz -- overreact to the current.

Teams have climbed by watching us lose. Now it's our turn to climb back over a few teams when they lose..

 

[pearl31]

Good stuff as always jncuse !

 

[orangenirvana]

Theoretically it really depends on what you think of Oregon St and Syracuse before this week. If you thought Oregon St was ahead, then they going to stay ahead. Certainly on the matrix they stay ahead no matter what at this point.

But it is the one P5 team that I think may not be ahead of us in reality (as of today), and I personally would move them ahead after today. There entire resume is based on beating a handful of Pac12 teams at home. They need something good away from home.

I hope you're right!

 

[jncuse]

Big game for Michigan would be tomorrow against Indiana

Not an easy game for Florida. They need tow in today and tomorrow to be considered.

I think GW gas to at least readh the A-10 Finals (win 3 games)

San Diego St -- want them to win the MWC. This is their first of hopefully 3 wins.

.

 

[jncuse]

A bad loss would hurt Vandy.

The big obstacle for Ohio St is tomorrow against Michigan St

I think Bama needs to make the SEC final (3 more wins). They are already the dog in ths one. Ole Miss has a nice record, but zero top wins and a #89 RPI. No need to worru about them

This would be huge for Georgia Tech. It may not be enough, but I think they would be very close.

 

[jncuse]

Others are more sold on Oregon St than me. I think they need this one to solidify things.

 

[pearl31]

View attachment 57324

Others are more sold on Oregon St than me. I think they need this one to solidify things.

but RPI!

 

[MGP]

Holy crap. Northwestern is 20-11? How have they not even been at least in the discussion?

 

[orangenirvana]

Holy crap. Northwestern is 20-11? How have they not even been at least in the discussion?

Their #106 RPI

 

[MGP]

Their #106 RPI

Right, must've really been cupcake city! They were 12-1 non-conference and 8-10 in the B1G. Those #s from a P5 should not produce that RPI...

 

[orangenirvana]

Northwestern has tied it up!

 

[orangenirvana]

Does Akron have a shot at an at-large bid? I know they're the only MAC team with an RPI in the Top 50.

Down to Rob Murphy's Eastern Michigan right now.

 

[Moontan]

View attachment 57323

This would be huge for Georgia Tech. It may not be enough, but I think they would be very close.

The team is also playing for the coach's job. Yesterday's nail biter may have been enough, but one more win certainly should be.

 

[MSOrange]

Holy crap. Northwestern is 20-11? How have they not even been at least in the discussion?

I follow the Big 10 fairly closely and I even had no idea they were 20-11. The non-conference schedule was not exactly a murderer's row but still a step in the right direction for the program.

 

[pearl31]

I follow the Big 10 fairly closely and I even had no idea they were 20-11. The non-conference schedule was not exactly a murderer's row but still a step in the right direction for the program.

yeah they were looking like a legit tourney team early in the conf schedule but really have only beat the worst b1g teams with no notable neutral/away wins at all - and like you say a really poor OOC schedule