jdubs30
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Exactly. Our wins are our wins at this point -- we want every bubble team - VTech, SBU, UConn -- all to lose.
Bubble Watch - March 10
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Their non conference schedule is pretty weak though, and their good wins came at home.
jdubs30
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We don't want anyone muddying the waters. VaTech has a big hill to climb, but a win tonignt and if somehow they beat UVA -- they're probably in.
jncuse
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RPI sometimesdoes silly things with top teams from leagues that are not near the best but (say ranked #12 to #20) not near the worst. And unless the record is really gaudy or the team has a couple top 50 wins it just gets ignored -- teams like Akron, Yale, Wilmington..
But I didn't realize there RPI was around 30 -- that's one of the lowerst not to get in. In the end that 11-6 record vs teams #100-#200 will do them in.
jdubs30
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I imagine a big part of that is how many road wins they get...
jncuse
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Individually, it doesn't really mean much. If's pretty much impossible to have a really good resume and a poor RPI.
But it matters because that is how they assess your wins over other teams. So it is a bit counter-intuitive. But in this case they are bucketing you wins, and not ranking individual teams. RPI is not good for picking say the 35th best team in the country... but when you use it to bucket teams from 25-50 the margin for error goes down.
jncuse
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They are probably very close with a win tomorrow (I would say just out, but that is open to perspective). I just want one less team to worry about.
jncuse
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It's a good question. Nobody is particularly great in the Pac12. But what happened is that all the teams were fairly good in the OOC - I think one team struggled. I don't remember the exact numbers, but I think it was around 9 of the P12 were in or around the RPI top 50 when they started the regular season.
RPI builds on itselff - -if you have no stinkers in your league, everybody starts to look better then they really are. P12 teams had the opportunity to get top 25 and top 50 home wins in conference that no one else had. And they also were protected from bad losses.
I think it was last week that Stanford had the most ridiculous reume I had ever seen. They were 13-12, but I think they had 11 losses in the top 50. They did have a few nice wins, and nothing really bad. But they were protected from doing anything bad as well.
id agree with you winning tommorrow puts them in the conversation for the last 2-3 spots with 7 or 8 teams
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jncuse
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My theory is that there is a lack of really bad basketball leagues out West. There is a lot of crappy leagues on the East Coast and in the South. While the West Coast lacks great leagues. the only leagues that are western are the MwC, WCC, Big West, Big Sky -- some of the more central teams probably play the Summit. In the realm of 32 Division 1 leagues only the Big Sky is bad.
Here are the rankings of the 32 leagues
Look at all the crappy leagues on the East Coast. On the West Coast, you can't really load up on really bad teams (In the realm of 351 teams). The leagues closer to you have better teams than that.
So it may not be gaming, but your teams are getting an inherent advantage from playing nearby teams.
It probably helped the MwC as well in recent years as well.
Just a theoru.
jncuse
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Yep, they have a big hole, but if they beat Miami and Virginia back to back. it really helps a resume/
pearl31
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Fairly confident they'll sneak in. If they'd lost to UCLA last night I would have had them right there on the cut line. I don't think I've done a side-by-side with them and SU, though, so lemme take a looksee...
edit:
just did a quick comparison: Very similar SOS, USC has RPI in the 40s, they have 1 more top-50 win than us (though none on road) with no sub-100 losses.
I say USC gets in as a 9-10 seed.
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Tom W.
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In my opinion USC would get the nod over us. 9 Top 100 wins and 5 top 50 with no horrible losses.
iommi
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I haven't been following this stuff like you guys (jn and pearl) but I just don't get it. No one is even talking about us as having any sort of chance to get in. You guys seem to think otherwise, or are you just amusing yourselves with all this bubble stuff?
I haven't heard one possible scenario outside of this board where we get in.
I haven't heard one possible scenario outside of this board where we get in.
pearl31
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yep, we were definitely left for dead by talking heads after yesterday... you should take a look at jn's great post in the "fwiw Lunardi" thread, really breaks it down about espn/Lunardi's narrative with us...
so yeah, we obviously would need things to break the right way for us still (as jn say, AAC and A10 games tomorrow are huge) and count on the committee to see things a certain way but I'll just say: We are definitely part of a pool of teams that the committee is accumulating right now until Sunday that will be compared ad nauseam in terms of inclusion/exclusion. We are, at the very least, a major part of the discussion.
iommi
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pearl31 I'll take your word for it that we will be in the conversation by the committee but I guess I'm wondering what you are basing that on? Gut feeling? I mean, I know you guys are looking at resumes, but what makes you thnk we will be in the conversation, while the narrative is that we are clearly out?
We aren't clearly out according to the talking heads, most of them have us in the last four out.
jncuse
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It's far from a certainty, but we are the last team out / in right now for quite a few. Even on ESPN we are just the last team out, and they probably want to avoid bringing us back.
It's a lot more interesting for the meda to say teams are playing their way in from the outside, rather than teams are moving up because they lost a few days before another team lost. But that is what may have happened today. Can't guarantee the same tomorrow.
I am ready to throw in the towel tomorrow if things really go the wrong way, but I suspect they will not.
The thing for me is I enjoy doing this -- very relaxing for me, as I wait for golf season to start.
jncuse
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One other thing -- the key talking heads have Temple in the tournament only as the AAC champion (it's a placeholder for the league leader). It's basically an open spot if they lose in the first 2 games this week -- the opposite of a bubble buster.
Thats why I am thinking it might be better if Uconn won it, it would get them into the top 50,and give us another top 50 win and because someone has to win that tournament anyway, it would just take a spot away from a Cincy or a Temple.
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