Bubble Watch - Week of February 25th to March 3rd

[orangenirvana]

OK, thanks. Didn't realize that was happening this year.

Actually been happening for a while now. This from two years ago...

"We look at RPI really as an organizer in terms of top 50 and 100, but we spent a lot of time, more time than I remember, in comparing (RPI) in the swings to metrics such as the Sagarin, Ken Pom, BPI," Barnes said. "Those are used in the room as well and talked about quite extensively. We review those metrics each week, and that carried over to this week."

RPI no longer important, NCAA tournament makes example of CSU

 

[jdubs30]

Actually been happening for a while now. This from two years ago...

"We look at RPI really as an organizer in terms of top 50 and 100, but we spent a lot of time, more time than I remember, in comparing (RPI) in the swings to metrics such as the Sagarin, Ken Pom, BPI," Barnes said. "Those are used in the room as well and talked about quite extensively. We review those metrics each week, and that carried over to this week."

RPI no longer important, NCAA tournament makes example of CSU

Also
NCAA Checks Its Bracket Math

 

[orange79]

Actually been happening for a while now. This from two years ago...

"We look at RPI really as an organizer in terms of top 50 and 100, but we spent a lot of time, more time than I remember, in comparing (RPI) in the swings to metrics such as the Sagarin, Ken Pom, BPI," Barnes said. "Those are used in the room as well and talked about quite extensively. We review those metrics each week, and that carried over to this week."

RPI no longer important, NCAA tournament makes example of CSU

So, when they look at Top25/Top50/etc. wins, are they using one or all three of the metrics?

 

[jdubs30]

So, when they look at Top25/Top50/etc. wins, are they using one or all three of the metrics?

I think he's saying to rough a measurement of how a team was against the top 100 - they use RPI to organize the teams. But when evaluating an individual team more in depth - they don't use RPI as a big fator.

For the most part, most teams ratings are similar across the board - we are an extreme outlier when you look at our RPI vs. Ken Pom, Sagrin and BPI. But most teams are similar across all metrics.

 

[orangenirvana]

So, when they look at Top25/Top50/etc. wins, are they using one or all three of the metrics?

Good question. My understanding is that they're using RPI when assessing a team's record against the Top 50 but they use the other ratings (Sagarin, KenPom, BPI) to evaluate each individual team. Which doesn't make much sense to me (either RPI is an accurate evaluation tool or not) but *shrug*

 

[MCC]

(I'm dreaming of spring)

GRRM... are you hearing this?

 

[jncuse]

Good question. My understanding is that they're using RPI when assessing a team's record against the Top 50 but they use the other ratings (Sagarin, KenPom, BPI) to evaluate each individual team. Which doesn't make much sense to me (either RPI is an accurate evaluation tool or not) but *shrug*

Yes, it's all very inconsistent and has been for a while. They diminished the individiaul RPI some years ago, yet it was always the basis for top 50. Not quite logical.

 

[Cuse House]

GRRM... are you hearing this?

He has to finish Winds of Winter before we can worry about A dream of Spring!

 

[jncuse]

A couple of points on analytics.

#1. Since they are foundations for betting system, KP and Sagarin have some "how have you played lately" element to them. Which makes them inconsistent with the "overall body of work" concept.

#2. Just some logic based on my experiences in the business world or any environment.

If you are looking to get rid of something (the RPI), you don't have much faith in it.
If you are replacing it with something new, it means you have faith in it.

I think the individual team ranking (KP/SAG/BPI) will have much more importance moving forward than in the past. Now that it is being embraced I can't see a team that is top 15 in those metrics like Wichita St missing the tourney. Yes they lack top wins but they will ignore that #. My thought anyway.

We may get a hint of that based on where Wichita St is seeded.

The big difference between me and Palm would be the treatment of Wichita St. Based on what we have been publicly told, it is nuts not to include Wichita St as an at large.

 

[jncuse]

OK, thanks. Didn't realize that was happening this year.

They have not cared about the RPI for several years in my view. Mid majors have had RPI's from the mid 30's to 40's and have been totally ignored for some time. It's about who you have beat -- the RPI serves as a starting point to who you should look at and who not to bother looking at. It saves a bit of time at the beginning. That's about it.

My view anyway.

 

[orangenirvana]

We may get a hint of that based on where Wichita St is seeded.

The big difference between me and Palm would be the treatment of Wichita St. Based on what we have been publicly told, it is nuts not to include Wichita St as an at large.

The Shockers have just one Top 50 win less than USC. Apparently to Palm that's the difference between a 6 seed and a popped bubble.

 

[jncuse]

All criticisms aside, outside of the matrix, Palm will be the one bracket I will look at before Selection Sunday as a point of concern,

I will also look at Lunardi for mocking reasons.

 

[jncuse]

Can someone provide info on Xavier's current situation. I know they had injury/suspension issues. Is it still the case?

 

[MSOrange]

Can someone provide info on Xavier's current situation. I know they had injury/suspension issues. Is it still the case?

Not sure if there are other issues but this is one. PG and second leading scorer.

Edmond Sumner Suffered Season-Ending Knee Injury Vs. St. John's

 

[jncuse]

If we had won it would have been massive but we were not in a must win situation and it was not expected, Next Sunday is must win, but I think we knew that was the case last week.

Updated Matrix after yesterday's game (31 brackets)
Seton Hall 30
Providence 29
Marquette 28
Syracuse 27
Cal 24
Illinois St 24
Vanderbilt 17
---- In/Out Line ----
Rhode Island 10
Wake Forest 8
Kansas St 5
TCU 4
Illinois 3
Houston 3
Georgia Tech 2
Georgia 2

Looks like the old Big East at the top. If we win our next gane we should be in entering the tournament per the matrix. Then it will come down to whether we get caught,

Kansas St and TCU really hurt themselves with their loss yestreday.

 

[orangenirvana]

Michigan State just scored their fifth Top 50 win. Approaching lock territory if not there already.

 

[jdubs30]

GaTech picks up another loss @ND.

USC bad loss @AZ State.

MSU might hurt us - but the other 2 results are favorable for us. Would be nice to have Nebraska win as well.

 

[Briancuse]

GaTech picks up another loss @ND.

USC bad loss @AZ State.

MSU might hurt us - but the other 2 results are favorable for us. Would be nice to have Nebraska win as well.

Msu is a lock, I don't think they hurt us at all.

 

[Chris02M]

i just completed my look at the teams in discussion for a bid and this was my last 8 in:
Seton Hall
Syracuse
Marquette
Wichita St
Vanderbilt
Usc(after the loss tonight which dropped them about 4 spots)
Georgia Tech(even counting the loss tonight)
California

with the just missed group of 7:
Kansas State
Rhode Island
Illinois
Clemson(despite their record their numbers are good)
Wake
Tcu
Illinois State

 

[djorange1989]

Msu is a lock, I don't think they hurt us at all.

Agree and we want MSU to beat Illinois this week. All of a sudden Illinois is back in the picture. If they beat MSU and then beat Buttgers(that should be easy) they will be 19-12 and 9-9 in conference. Wins over VCU and BYU plus a sweep of Northwestern, a win over Michigan and the hypothetical win over MSU. Pretty decent resume out of nowhere

 

[jdubs30]

i just completed my look at the teams in discussion for a bid and this was my last 8 in:
Seton Hall
Syracuse
Marquette
Wichita St
Vanderbilt
Usc(after the loss tonight which dropped them about 4 spots)
Georgia Tech(even counting the loss tonight)
California

with the just missed group of 7:
Kansas State
Rhode Island
Illinois
Clemson(despite their record their numbers are good)
Wake
Tcu
Illinois State

Looks like you view us as pretty safely in - I assume a play-in game on Saturday at the Dome? Could we survive a 1-1 rest of the way in your opinon? I still think even if we go 0-2 we have like a 5% shot if a bunch of other teams falter as well

 

[jncuse]

i just completed my look at the teams in discussion for a bid and this was my last 8 in:
Seton Hall
Syracuse
Marquette
Wichita St
Vanderbilt
Usc(after the loss tonight which dropped them about 4 spots)
Georgia Tech(even counting the loss tonight)
California

with the just missed group of 7:
Kansas State
Rhode Island
Illinois
Clemson(despite their record their numbers are good)
Wake
Tcu
Illinois State

Hadn't even checked the scores tonight. Did not realize that USC had loss.

Thanks for the input Chris. For those that are new to this thread, I can vouch that Chris knows his stuff based on prior postings in other years.

Hope this next question makes sense. "While you are predicting where Syracuse is, how many teams are close enough that you think it is conceivable that the committee may have them currently above us".

 

[Chris02M]

Looks like you view us as pretty safely in - I assume a play-in game on Saturday at the Dome? Could we survive a 1-1 rest of the way in your opinon? I still think even if we go 0-2 we have like a 5% shot if a bunch of other teams falter as well

a win on saturday for me would lock us in while a loss followed by another loss would make us sweat

 

[jncuse]

Michigan State just scored their fifth Top 50 win. Approaching lock territory if not there already.

I think they are a lock at this point, The committee always like to reward bubble teams that test themselves in OOC so that is always the measure that puts them over the top.

In fact they put Non Conference SOS as one of the primary factors to separate the bubble. It really is just a tool to punish or reward teams... in theory it tells you nothing by itself as to whether a team is worthy or not,

 

[jncuse]

This is one I would have liked earlier today. There are only three mid major teams that I could see getting at large (excluding multi bid leagues like A-10, American, WCC). They are Wichita St which i have as a lock based on analytics, And then Middle Tennessee St and Illinois St -- I would predict neither in but they definetely create uncertainty.

And just because they were harsh to these types last year, doesn't mean they will continue. The feedbsck could go the other way.