Bubble Watch - Week of February 4 | Page 2 | Syracusefan.com
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Bubble Watch - Week of February 4

jdubs30 said:
If Iowa State was a 10 seed - this loss just cements them in - it's not a "new" team entering the field
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I think you are looking at this from the "as of now" perspective. Which you are correct this would not change the "as of now" line. Iowa St was in, and is clearly in as of today.

When I am providing viewpoints, I sort of see myself providing info in a few different ways. One if more big picture leading towards next month, rather than focusing on the as of now.

While Iowa St is in "as of now" as a 10 seed they may very well end up on the bubble in a month's time. This was a huge result for them. So it could be a difference maker on Selection Sunday. As a general rule, we want anybody that is a top 6 seed right now to win every game they play. Don't give a chance to other bubble teams to get big wins. This is also why I bring up games for Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington. Wichita St, because I see them as potential bid stealers at year end (unless they start losing)
 
orange79 said:
As of 12:30 this morning, bracketologist extraordinaire Jerry Palm has us as the last team in:

Then, if seeds hold and we make a run: Florida->Cinci->UNC->Nova
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I do tend to respect Palm more than others, and if I had to select just one I may go with him. But there are alot of people who know what they are doing on this, so I like the perspective the matrix provides (as long as I eliminate the old brackets). There are of course some duds that are preparing brackets, but I think those sort of balance out when you look as a group.

I would rather see what 60 people think rather than 1... but if there has to be 1, Palm is the guy.
 
upperdeck said:
Michigan is the team that is really on the bubble.. 1 good win. good shot at 6 more losses. I think that sweeping clem/gt/pitt isnt enough.. we need to win one of the UL/Duke games and go 2-2 in the other games. that would give us 3+ wins against top four seeds
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Agreed with Michigan... that is a weak resume. They are still helped by a few decent OOC wins that have larger weight when you are only half way through a conference season.

I still think 4 wins is enough any way we get them, but if I had to choose a mix I would prefer the one you presented. Just remember the road record is iffy. so 3 more road wins is not a bad thing.
 
20Plus said:
Bracketology 2017: Odds To Make The NCAA Tournament

This is interesting if you look at the S-curve
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There is some and good and bad with that website. They focus on projection rather than "as of now", which I totally agree makes sense. The "as of now" doesn't focus on the fact that different teams have very different opportunities to improve their resume moving forward.

It's basically 2 steps with:
1) Project the year end data (this is no different than rpiforecast.com which I heavily rely upon). The projection is based on a reliable system. So great so fat.

2) Take this data and use a formula to predict seeding. It's pretty clear looking at the output that their formula is pure garbage... which is not much different than the other sites that have tried to do the same.

#2 is the problem -- the reason is not because they are stupid. And I love the initiative that people take to extend #1 into #2, and wish I could find something reliable out there. But it's largely an impossible task to create a good formula. There are many moving factors in seeding that are hard to accurately weigh. If you can look at our resume at 18-13 and say we are an 8 seed you are kidding yourself. The formula they use is probably heavily geared to quality but we are horrible on the road, bad losses, and OOC SOS. This will drag our seeding down from #8.

I prefer to stop at #1 - give me the projected data (which is based on a sound system) and I will try to seed based on that.
 
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TexanMark said:
This link is only as good as the average day these guys update their brackets...

The best thing about it is you can click on the top of each column and see the source of each bracket input
The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2017
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When I do my bracket matrix totals in this thread (or other threads) I always adjust for current data. They tell you at the top when it was posted. So I will take brackets from that day and sometimes the day before.

I would also add that the matrix has a few "dud" contributors. I think they tend to even out, but my current view is that as a whole they tend to overrate current RPI to a certain degree.
 
One thing that I noted is that we were on 6% of brackets that were posted after our win against NC St.

It will be interesting to see how many brackets we were on before our next game. Those still are coming in, but you will see the swing caused on perception by one large win.
 
jncuse, I'm impressed with your ability to to understand and explain all of this "stuff." Thanks for sharing. With that being said, is it worth the money, even though it's not that much, to buy Ken Pom's subscription. How much more info do you get, vs the free info he gives when you first log in, and how reliable is it?
 
orange79 said:
Take a look at the Twitter handle. It's a trolling Twitter account. :D
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Not even a fake twitter account. I just used a fake tweet generator.

I post some from time to time on these boards (maybe did a half dozen). If mods think it is inappropriate just send me a private message.
 
NineOneSeven said:
And we wonder why no one knows the actual facts from alternative facts these days
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I willl stop posting them as i see it's causing more confusion rather than the intended mocking of them,
 
jncuse said:
I willl stop posting them as i see it's causing more confusion rather than the intended mocking of them,
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Oh I think it's funny... My post wasn't really serious but just taking a jab at all the fake news stuff
 
CBSsports's Jerry Palm has Syracuse as the last team in... . That, along with last week's victory over Florida State Seminoles , has the Orange in the last spot on the bracket, and perhaps in position to make another March run. Syracuse has a lot of negatives on its tournament resume though. They have been awful away from home. The Orange's win at North Carolina Tar Heels State last week was their first of the season outside the Carrier Dome. Four of their next six games are on the road, all against bubble teams or better. There really is almost no margin for error for Syracuse. The Orange are probably not going to make the tournament if they only win their home games, despite the fact that those would be against pretty good teams.
 
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We are last team in -- as of today.


26/46 (57%) brackets uploaded on the matrix since Sunday morning have us in the tournament.

As usual, I will tabulate the bubble based on those 46 submissions alone, to eliminate old data.



Clemson 34

LAST 4 IN
Indiana 33
Miami 33
Seton Hall 30
Syracuse 26

FIRST 4 OUT
Illinois St 23
Wake Forest 22
Tennessee 15
Georgia Tech 15

Next
Rhode Island 12
Michigan 7
Texas Tech 6
Utah 3
 
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jncuse said:
We are last team in -- as of today.


26/46 (57%) brackets uploaded on the matrix since Sunday morning have us in the tournament.

As usual, I will tabulate the bubble based on those 46 submissions alone, to eliminate old data.



Clemson 34

LAST 4 IN
Indiana 33
Miami 33
Seton Hall 30
Syracuse 26

FIRST 4 OUT
Illinois St 23
Wake Forest 22
Tennessee 15
Georgia Tech 15

Next
Rhode Island 12
Michigan 7
Texas Tech 6
Utah 3
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A question for the resident bracketologist:

Isn't Michigan State getting too much credit, based upon their resume? They are 14-9 (6-4 in the mediocre B1G). Their best win might be Wichita St. I am not impressed.
 
longtimefan said:
A question for the resident bracketologist:

Isn't Michigan State getting too much credit, based upon their resume? They are 14-9 (6-4 in the mediocre B1G). Their best win might be Wichita St. I am not impressed.
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I agree it's really nothing great. They even have a bad loss at home. But enough quality wins (although not high quality) and a few on the road. They get the benefit of the doubt because they play everybody.

At a 9/10 seed however, they are a 2 game losing streak from the bubble at all times.
 

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