Bubble Watch - Week of February 4

[jncuse]

Tonight is one of those nights where you it may be OK to cheer for Kansas.

My general rule is always cheer for the "locks" or near locks, but it's tough when it involves Duke, Kansas, and Kentucky.

 

[jncuse]

This is the tally for only the 46 brackets updated today on the matrix (before tonight's game)

After tonight, we will move past the last 4 in line as Clemson lost... and Arkansas also had another very bad loss at home tonight after losing to Missouri on Saturday.

Arkansas was a 7/8 seed last week. 2 bad losses and it will be on the outside looking in. After the 6 seed it is very bunched.

 

[jncuse]

Still a month to go but some interesting results tonight.

While I now this helps Michigan as much as it hurts Michigan St, the Spartans have to be getting close to the bubble line after this line. They were a 9 seed before this.

Wake was in the lead for quite a bit of this game. By itself this road loss is not bad.. But at some point Wake has to win a big game.

Northwestern was a 7 seed before this game. This doesn't put them close the bubble, but follow this up with another bad loss and they start to get close. It's not quite a gimme for the Wildcats to finally break the streak. Lots of time left.

 

[Halfmooncuse]

Rpi had clemsonat 48 SU 72 before tonite game

 

[jncuse]

Losing home games to other bubble teams is not good. Clemson is on the outside as of now.

Arkansas is quickly imploding after a good start had them around a 7/8 seed. The last 2 games are a bad loss to Missouri, and now a loss to a non tourney team at home. In 2 games they move from a good position to out of the tournament for now,

Marquette is a 10 seed. When you get a top 25 team at home that is not elite like Butler you have to take advantage. Let's see what happens in the last 10 minutes.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Michigan State sucking the gas pipe at Michigan.

 

[MSOrange]

Still a month to go but some interesting results tonight.

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While I now this helps Michigan as much as it hurts Michigan St, the Spartans have to be getting close to the bubble line after this line. They were a 9 seed before this.

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Wake was in the lead for quite a bit of this game. By itself this road loss is not bad.. But at some point Wake has to win a big game.

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Northwestern was a 7 seed before this game. This doesn't put them close the bubble, but follow this up with another bad loss and they start to get close. It's not quite a gimme for the Wildcats to finally break the streak. Lots of time left.

Northwestern's leading scorer is out with mono for the second game in a row. Be interesting to see how long that he is out.

 

[jncuse]

Just realize the matrix had another update -- there are 69 recent brackets, so might as well use a larger sample size. It is amazing how grouped the ACC teams are. It seems people have no clue how to rank these teams. I think Syracuse made it a little easier for them next time.

 

[jdubs30]

Being 3-0 against the bubble ACC teams certainly helps - we gotta win at least 1 vs. GaTech because we can't let them get that edge over us.

 

[jncuse]

Odd stretch for Iowa St (currently a 9 seed before tonight). They beat Kansas on the road, and 2 night's later lose to a bad Texas team.

Working their way back to the bubble.

Marquette a 10 seed, blows an opportunity. I expect them to be a team that will be one of the last 4 / first 4 at year end.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

Looks like a good night of results for Cuse.

 

[pearl31]

yep, glad to see Marquette lose - that's gonna be a tough team for the committee to decide on

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[orangenirvana]

Syracuse's rankings through 25 games...

Sagarin: #36
KenPom: #48
BPI: #31
RPI: #64

Average Rank: 44.8

By comparison, these were SU's rankings heading into Selection Sunday last season...

Sagarin: #40
KenPom: #41
BPI: #39
RPI: #71

Average Rank: 47.8

I'd like to see SU go 4-2 in these last six games and win at least one ACCT game so my blood pressure isn't quite so high on the morning of Sunday, March 12, 2017.

 

[Cuse House]

Syracuse's rankings through 25 games...

Sagarin: #36
KenPom: #48
BPI: #31
RPI: #64

Average Rank: 44.8

By comparison, these were SU's rankings heading into Selection Sunday last season...

Sagarin: #40
KenPom: #41
BPI: #39
RPI: #71

Average Rank: 47.8

I'd like to see SU go 4-2 in these last six games and win at least one ACCT game so my blood pressure isn't quite so high on the morning of Sunday, March 12, 2017.

Those numbers look favorable. I think the teams on the bubble this year lack the quality wins, which helps us. Plus after our run as a 10 seed last year, you would think the committee would look on our squad favorably. I think if we get to 20 wins regardless of how it is done, we are pretty much guaranteed to get in. That could mean we finish 3-3 and win one in the tournament or finish 4-2 but lose our first tournament game. I really don't think the details are important at this point. Get to 20 and we are a lock.

I think we could even get in with 19 wins if we beat either Duke or Louisville. That would give us 3 better wins than any other bubble team.

 

[orangenirvana]

Those numbers look favorable. I think the teams on the bubble this year lack the quality wins, which helps us. Plus after our run as a 10 seed last year, you would think the committee would look on our squad favorably. I think if we get to 20 wins regardless of how it is done, we are pretty much guaranteed to get in. That could mean we finish 3-3 and win one in the tournament or finish 4-2 but lose our first tournament game. I really don't think the details are important at this point. Get to 20 and we are a lock.

I think we could even get in with 19 wins if we beat either Duke or Louisville. That would give us 3 better wins than any other bubble team.

Road wins are important, though. I'd almost rather sweep the two remaining winnable road games (Pitt, GTech) and win at least one at the ACCT than lose those games and beat both Duke and UL at home.

 

[Cuse House]

Road wins are important, though. I'd almost rather sweep the two remaining winnable road games (Pitt, GTech) and win at least one at the ACCT than lose those games and beat both Duke and UL at home.

We now have 2 road wins, a week ago we had 0. I would prefer winning another game against a top 10 team. What's the better argument, we won 4 away games? Or we beat 3 top 10 teams? Kind of hard to leave a team out who finishes in the top half of the best conference in the country with three top 10 wins.

I am not saying the road games aren't important, they are. We still need to find a way to win a minimum of 3 more games.

 

[Jasoncuse]

I love the Bracket Matrix and it's a daily stop for me, but man, I wish they had a sort function to exclude any bracket more than a day or two old. There's a good 20-25 that were last updated before our UVa win.

 

[Oráiste]

it's sobering to think of how close the margin is . . . Gillon & Battle miss their buzzer beaters and we are 14-11 and hoping to host an NIT game. Instead, we are one of the hottest teams in the nation!

 

[Knicks411]

it's sobering to think of how close the margin is . . . Gillon & Battle miss their buzzer beaters and we are 14-11 and hoping to host an NIT game. Instead, we are one of the hottest teams in the nation!

Yes, the margin has been razor thin. The good news is, those wins are banked, no matter how easily they could have gone the other way.

For whatever this is worth (nothing), after the win last night, it was the first time since probably the St Johns loss that I think we're more likely than not to make the tournament. Still a long way to go, and we can trip up, but I think we're more than 50% at this point. Maybe I'm an idiot.

 

[jncuse]

Yes, the margin has been razor thin. The good news is, those wins are banked, no matter how easily they could have gone the other way.

For whatever this is worth (nothing), after the win last night, it was the first time since probably the St Johns loss that I think we're more likely than not to make the tournament. Still a long way to go, and we can trip up, but I think we're more than 50% at this point. Maybe I'm an idiot.

I would say we are more likely than not to get in now. Our projected record is 19-12 based on Sagarin, and this is where RPIforecast is really helpful. You can see our resume if we end up at 19-12, and if you look at the projected resumes of other teams on the bubble we should get in (but of course can't statae with certainty)

Yes the projected RPI is still only 63, but our good is way better than most on the resume. One ACC win puts us over the top if we are not already in at 19.

RPI Forecast

 

[CorduroyG]

if we go 3-3 i think its more important to beat duke or lousiville and bank another top 10 win than beat pitt and ga 2x. i think either scenario would get us in but i want 1 more big time win. boeheim said the other day the committee looks at who you beat. how many bubble teams would have 3 wins as good as fsu, virginia, duke/lville?

 

[Dave85]

it's sobering to think of how close the margin is . . . Gillon & Battle miss their buzzer beaters and we are 14-11 and hoping to host an NIT game. Instead, we are one of the hottest teams in the nation!

JB, "Good teams win."

 

[Knicks411]

if we go 3-3 i think its more important to beat duke or lousiville and bank another top 10 win than beat pitt and ga 2x. i think either scenario would get us in but i want 1 more big time win. boeheim said the other day the committee looks at who you beat. how many bubble teams would have 3 wins as good as fsu, virginia, duke/lville?

I think this is right. We've somewhat answered the road win thing; we have 2 now, neither team is great but Clemson is a bubble team at least. Those 3 front-line wins would be tough for someone else to beat.

 

[jncuse]

Syracuse vs Wake

A comparison of two projected resumes from RPI Forecast. Remember the fact that Syracuse has an 11-7 record in the ACC vs Wake's 8-10 record in the ACC is irrelevant. It's the entire body of work.

W-L: 19-12 vs 17-13
RPI: 63 vs 32
Top 25: 3-5 vs 0-8
Top 50: 5-7 vs 1-10
Top 100: 9-9 vs 5-13
Bad Losses: 3 vs 0
Road and Neutral Wins: 3 vs 7

This is two extremes. Wake has a great RPI, no bad losses, and a fair amount of road wins.
Syracuse has the quality wins.

So what is worth more - 4 extra top 50 wins or 3 bad losses.

To me this is a no brainer. But I wouldn't 100% count on the committee making the right call either. And of course Joe Lunardi would have Wake but that is irrelevant.