How do you gauge whether the bubble is good or bad in a particular year? Aren't there 18-19 win bubble teams every year?
Honestly it is very tough to see them getting there.
@Louisville - Please. My predict: chance of winning 1%.
I don't understand why people keep discounting the NSSU win. That team is loaded with talent, has under performed all season and had their best shooting game all season at home. They also SU down 16 late in the game.Honestly it is very tough to see them getting there.
UVA - Really there is little reason to expect a win here. That team has one of the best defenses in the country and we still have a very shaky offense in terms of functionality. We have great shooters but a terrible offense. We also have a terrible defense that rises to average at home. Per Kenpom, Cavs has #15 offense and #3 defense. Also UVA is going to come in looking for blood after that NCAA tourney game. I suspect this game will get badly out of hand. The trick will be to not let this beatdown trickle over into the next game(s). My predict: chance of winning 10%.
@Clem - Relatively evenly matched opponent but on the road. This will look a lot like NC State which took a miracle to win. If we have the mental toughness to bounce back after the UVA loss, then we have a reasonable chance to win, but it will not be easy. Kenpom rates them better both offensively and defensively than us. My predict: chance of winning 40%.
@Pitt - Look Pitt is terrible. I have scars from the past 15 years such that there is no possible way I will predict us to beat Pitt at Pitt out of hand. We are the better team, but we have been the better team in many losses to Pitt before. Stallings, of course, changes the equation. If this exact team was coached by Dixon, I would give us a 20% chance of winning. As is, my predict is: chance of winning 49%.
Louisville - This is vintage Pitt with actual good players in terms of our success rate against them. Putting Gillon and Howard up against the #2 rated UL defense? We could have more turnovers than field goals in this game. It is at home so I give us a bump for that. My predict: chance of winning 15%.
@GT - They have been very tough at home, racking up some very good wins. But their offense is horri-awful. Although they have a Top 10 defense, it will pale in comparison to UL and UVA and so I think we roll in this game. My predict: chance of winning 65%.
Duke - Coach K is back and they have some time to return injured players (or get already returned injured players back to form by then. It has become a rivalry game though, so add in that x-factor. My predict: chance of winning 55%.
@Louisville - Please. My predict: chance of winning 1%.
GT - Last regular season game in the dome for White, Battle, Gillon, DC, Lydon, Howard against a poor road team. My predict: chance of winning 70%.
So given all that. I see us realistically getting 3 more wins out of that group. Add in the miracle of sports and give us one more due to that factor and we go 4-4.
5-3 would require significant improvement over what we saw against NC State.
I don't understand why people keep discounting the NSSU win. That team is loaded with talent, has under performed all season and had their best shooting game all season at home. They also SU down 16 late in the game.
No, they were on fire from deep. If some of those hadn't gone down , Cuse would have housed them.they had their best shooting game of the season for a reason, our defense STINKS on the road.
it was a very impressive comeback though, and hopefully will give them some confidence on the road the rest of the way.
No, they were on fire from deep. If some of those hadn't gone down , Cuse would have housed them.
No, they were on fire from deep. If some of those hadn't gone down , Cuse would have housed them.
That team smoked Duke and UVA. When They're hot, they're hot. But Cuse overcame it, major mojo.But the way we won that game was not a "systematic" way of winning games. We shot 57% from 3 point range! And you claim they were on fire? We did not run an effective offense for big chunks of that game against their mediocre defense. Half of our remaining games are against teams with Kenpom top 10 defenses, three of them against teams in the top 3! We could be a 2 seed caliber team and go 4-4 against this schedule. Almost nothing that happened in that NC State game translates to future games other than our subpar defense on the road, poor rebounding, and very good shooting.
That team smoked Duke and UVA. When They're hot, they're hot. But Cuse overcame it, major mojo.
Honestly it is very tough to see them getting there.
UVA - Really there is little reason to expect a win here. That team has one of the best defenses in the country and we still have a very shaky offense in terms of functionality. We have great shooters but a terrible offense. We also have a terrible defense that rises to average at home. Per Kenpom, Cavs has #15 offense and #3 defense. Also UVA is going to come in looking for blood after that NCAA tourney game. I suspect this game will get badly out of hand. The trick will be to not let this beatdown trickle over into the next game(s). My predict: chance of winning 10%.
@Clem - Relatively evenly matched opponent but on the road. This will look a lot like NC State which took a miracle to win. If we have the mental toughness to bounce back after the UVA loss, then we have a reasonable chance to win, but it will not be easy. Kenpom rates them better both offensively and defensively than us. My predict: chance of winning 40%.
@Pitt - Look Pitt is terrible. I have scars from the past 15 years such that there is no possible way I will predict us to beat Pitt at Pitt out of hand. We are the better team, but we have been the better team in many losses to Pitt before. Stallings, of course, changes the equation. If this exact team was coached by Dixon, I would give us a 20% chance of winning. As is, my predict is: chance of winning 49%.
Louisville - This is vintage Pitt with actual good players in terms of our success rate against them. Putting Gillon and Howard up against the #2 rated UL defense? We could have more turnovers than field goals in this game. It is at home so I give us a bump for that. My predict: chance of winning 15%.
@GT - They have been very tough at home, racking up some very good wins. But their offense is horri-awful. Although they have a Top 10 defense, it will pale in comparison to UL and UVA and so I think we roll in this game. My predict: chance of winning 65%.
Duke - Coach K is back and they have some time to return injured players (or get already returned injured players back to form by then. It has become a rivalry game though, so add in that x-factor. My predict: chance of winning 55%.
@Louisville - Please. My predict: chance of winning 1%.
GT - Last regular season game in the dome for White, Battle, Gillon, DC, Lydon, Howard against a poor road team. My predict: chance of winning 70%.
So given all that. I see us realistically getting 3 more wins out of that group. Add in the miracle of sports and give us one more due to that factor and we go 4-4.
5-3 would require significant improvement over what we saw against NC State.
We better beat GT on senior night in front of a good crowd with all that is on the line. If we don't I will be really disappointed.Just to keep our eye on the ball, we are essentially on track from what we hoped to be as of the first week of February.
If we beat GT at home on senior day, we will be 4-4, but the wins came against different opponents than we thought. I think a home win against UVA is more beneficial for us than a road loss to GT is bad. Same with Duke/Pitt. I stick to my predict of 70% win chance against GT in the dome. They have a sneaky good defense, but Andrew White and Lydon are going to be more effective at home and we play much better defense.