Can't see us getting in if we lose Wednesday | Page 5 | Syracusefan.com

Can't see us getting in if we lose Wednesday

DoctorBombay said:
Silly.
To paraphrase "William Munny" aka Clint Eastwood in "Unforgiven":
"Deserve's got nothing to do with it"!
If we get in, then we deserved it. No one's giving bids away, so somehow, someway, despite the reality-altering narratives, we must've done "something" to get in the dance, no?
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I meant that in a "normal" year, our record and performance would not be good enough to merit a place in the NCAA tournament. This year we deserve to make the tournament because our mediocrity was better than enough other mediocre teams.
 
sugrad68 said:
I meant that in a "normal" year, our record and performance would not be good enough to merit a place in the NCAA tournament. This year we deserve to make the tournament because our mediocrity was better than enough other mediocre teams.
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Is that really true though?
Just seems like every year you hear the bubble is bad. Maybe that's just how it is every year. When has the bubble been good?

It's an easy comp since I was just looking it up, everyone points to 2007 as a year we clearly should've been in and were left out, in a field with 3 fewer teams, and that year, our entire resume was based on beating 3 NCAA tournament teams, 1 on the road and 2 at home. We have better wins this year and similiar, though probably worse, (I think?) losses this year
 
I am bringing this up just to show that we can have some high level comfort (not total comfort) based on our bracket matrix seeding. Even if we lose Wednesday, the lowest I can see us falling to is around the 4th or 5th last team in on the matrix.


History of Teams "In on the Matrix" but left out by the committee;

2018 2nd Last In P12
2018 Last in WCC

2017 None

2016 5th Last in A-10
2016 3rd Last in WCC
2016 2nd Last in MWC

2015 5th Last in MWC
2015 4th Last in AAC

2014 Last in AAC

2013 None

2012 Last In Big East

2011 5th Last in ACC
2011 4th Last in Big 12
2011 Last In WCC

2010 Last in SEC

2009 Last in MWC

Some Facts
14 teams in 10 years

The last 8 above the line misses have been from non power conferences (I am including the 2018 P12 because it was basically a high mid major).

The distribution of seeds
6 - Last Team In
2 - 2nd Last team In
1 - 3rd Last team in
2 - 4th last team in
3 - 5th last team in

Our range with a loss in the ACC game is probably 3rd last in to 6th last in. 6 of those 40 teams have missed (about 15%). But the odds are much lower if you are on a P5 school in that position.
 
How bad is the bubble this year?

The following teams are all in on the Matrix despite .500 or worse conference records.

TCU 7-11 (12 seed)
Oklahoma 7-11 (8)
Texas 8-10 (10)
Iowa State 9-9 (6)
Clemson 9-9 (12)
N.C. State 9-9 (11)
St John’s 8-10 (10)
Seton Hall 9-9 (11)
Minnesota 9-11(10)
Ohio State 8-11(11)
Alabama 8-10 (12)
Florida 9-9 (11)

Indiana at 16-14, 7-12 in the B1G is one of the first teams out.

This is why we are currently in and why the bubble can be called the worst it’s ever been. Just a hodgepodge of bad teams.
 
Knicks411 said:
Is that really true though?
Just seems like every year you hear the bubble is bad. Maybe that's just how it is every year. When has the bubble been good?

It's an easy comp since I was just looking it up, everyone points to 2007 as a year we clearly should've been in and were left out, in a field with 3 fewer teams, and that year, our entire resume was based on beating 3 NCAA tournament teams, 1 on the road and 2 at home. We have better wins this year and similiar, though probably worse, (I think?) losses this year
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07 we went 10-6 in big east right? i think thats why everyone had us as a lock, regardless of the rest of our resume.

i feel like our resume this year is very blah. whats our best win after duke, home to louisville? theyre basically us. yea we have some road wins but theyre all to bad teams. just a very underwhelming season
 
i dont see how anyone that lived through 2007 can feel totally safe if we lose to bc/pitt. after we beat uconn in bet we were considered a lock. espn didnt even have us listed on the screen when theyd show teams on the bubble. ill be nervous if we lose wed.
 
Knicks411 said:
Is that really true though?
Just seems like every year you hear the bubble is bad. Maybe that's just how it is every year. When has the bubble been good?

It's an easy comp since I was just looking it up, everyone points to 2007 as a year we clearly should've been in and were left out, in a field with 3 fewer teams, and that year, our entire resume was based on beating 3 NCAA tournament teams, 1 on the road and 2 at home. We have better wins this year and similiar, though probably worse, (I think?) losses this year
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Exactly. The bubble has always been bad, and got worse when the field expanded to 68. These comments about “deserving” to be in the tourney are pointless. Every year is graded on a curve, and they need to get to 68. Everyone saying we are out should have to name the teams getting in over us.
 
Day2 said:
I meant to compliment you earlier for the “what happens after you die” analogy, as it perfectly encapsulates the two trains of thought regarding where we stand.

The 2016 election analogy doesn’t work as well. In the days leading up to Election Day, Nate Silver kept saying there wasn’t enough polling in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and how Trump could win if those states went his way. Silver still had Clinton winning, but he could easily explain how she might not.

The arguments for why we might not get in are based more on bad vibes and/or past transgressions by the committee. Nothing you can objectively point to this season. It’s not as simple as saying these three teams steal a bid, these three bubble teams go deep into their conference tournaments, or a combination thereof. It would take so much more than that. A perfect storm of events even more unlikely than Trump winning.
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There is nothing in the world that would make me happier than to come back here 5 minutes after Selection Sunday if we are picked with plenty of room to spare and say "whoops my bad, you guys were right."
 
CorduroyG said:
07 we went 10-6 in big east right? i think thats why everyone had us as a lock, regardless of the rest of our resume.

i feel like our resume this year is very blah. whats our best win after duke, home to louisville? theyre basically us. yea we have some road wins but theyre all to bad teams. just a very underwhelming season
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Yes, and considering the committee doesn't really look at conf record, maybe we should've been more worried. I think our 07 resume was a lot more blah than the one we have right now. (Plus, as I've said, smaller at large field in 07)

Ohio State is not a bad team. Not saying they're great, but they're a top 40-45 team. That road win is worth something. Louisville is a 7 seed on the matrix, so if theyre basically us, we should have nothing to worry about.
 
Knicks411 said:
Is that really true though?
Just seems like every year you hear the bubble is bad. Maybe that's just how it is every year. When has the bubble been good?

It's an easy comp since I was just looking it up, everyone points to 2007 as a year we clearly should've been in and were left out, in a field with 3 fewer teams, and that year, our entire resume was based on beating 3 NCAA tournament teams, 1 on the road and 2 at home. We have better wins this year and similiar, though probably worse, (I think?) losses this year
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It seems as though this year many conferences, including the ACC, are top-heavy. The AAC. Atlantic 10. Big 12. Big East. PAC 12. In most years these conferences would get more bids than they will get this year. That leaves more openings for ACC teams in particular. Last year SU was 20-13, which will probably be the same record as this year. Last year we were the last team chosen. This year we are supposedly safely in.
 
CorduroyG said:
i dont see how anyone that lived through 2007 can feel totally safe if we lose to bc/pitt. after we beat uconn in bet we were considered a lock. espn didnt even have us listed on the screen when theyd show teams on the bubble. ill be nervous if we lose wed.
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2007 was 2007. This is 2019.
 
Briancuse said:
1

Lunardi had us out last year and palm had us in 2 years ago. Now your relying on lunatic he's always wrong.
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Briancuse said:
Ohio st has fallen apart that win loses value by the day.
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It’s a Q1 win against a tourney team!! You really know nothing about the tournament selection process, do you?
 
Eric15 said:
There is nothing in the world that would make me happier than to come back here 5 minutes after Selection Sunday if we are picked with plenty of room to spare and say "whoops my bad, you guys were right."
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No need. I’m just trying to reassure you.
 
We were definitely on the bubble in 2007. We weren’t even in every bracket on the matrix.
 
Sherman20 said:
It’s a Q1 win against a tourney team!! You really know nothing about the tournament selection process, do you?
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If osu loses today and in the big ten tourn are they still a tourney team?
 
OrangeDW said:
Lol. Have yet to see anybody actually answer.

This whole thread is kindve amazing.
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Its a question that can't be answered now. As of now we are in. If bids start to get stolen and other bubble teams win games it can be.
 
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