Cusefan0307
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There’s history on this. We were projected as a worse seed than we are now and we weren’t in every bracket.
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Can't see us getting in if we lose Wednesday
- Thread starter Tony DeFranco
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There’s history on this. We were projected as a worse seed than we are now and we weren’t in every bracket.
kcsu
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Lots of upsets. We need to take care of business. Lets hope the team shows some passion and hustle. Sick of the lack of effort and fire.
NineOneSeven
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Comparing to 2007 is so moronic I can’t even believe I’m typing this
kingtidge
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Granted, some midmajor tournament hijinks will have to go down for us to be in trouble... But it's March madness, so never say never.
What worries me is the NET rating, and particularly the TVI...
There's plenty of diatribes about how the committee is going to use the new rating this year... But that's just it, it's new and we have no history on what to expect.
If we lose our first game in the acct, I sure as hell hope we aren't listening to the committee chair on Sunday after brackets talking about their weighting of the TVI and bad home losses being a higher weight factor than the pundits may have thought. "...and the reason why a team like syracuse didn't make the cut."
Anyways, let's just take care of business in the acct on Weds and make sure we aren't some "bubble teachable moment" for the new NET and TVI from the committee.
What worries me is the NET rating, and particularly the TVI...
There's plenty of diatribes about how the committee is going to use the new rating this year... But that's just it, it's new and we have no history on what to expect.
If we lose our first game in the acct, I sure as hell hope we aren't listening to the committee chair on Sunday after brackets talking about their weighting of the TVI and bad home losses being a higher weight factor than the pundits may have thought. "...and the reason why a team like syracuse didn't make the cut."
Anyways, let's just take care of business in the acct on Weds and make sure we aren't some "bubble teachable moment" for the new NET and TVI from the committee.
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Knicks411
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(Assuming the source I'm using is correct) We rank slightly better (41) in the RPI than the NET (46)
If they use the RPI at all, NC State may as well pack (didnt even mean it like that, but nice turn of phrase by me there) things up. They're over 100
jncuse
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I wouldn't worry much about us being made an example of the TVI. Given that they are bringing in margin and efficiency into the equation, those with impacted TVI's should be those with the bad NCSOS per something like KP.
We are #169 in non-conference SOS which is middle of the pack amongst at larges candidates. Here are teams that have bad NCSOS in KP:
NC St #353 (out of 353)
Iowa #333
Baylor #291
NC St should be particularly worried.
kingtidge
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Knicks411
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Iowa headed into OT with Nebraska as well
Saw an interesting twitter thread about NC State, in OOC they went to Wisconsin, had Auburn at home, and Penn State on a neutral. Doesn't seem like that should rank dead last, but the rest of the schedule was so bad. Realistically, playing teams ranked 320 or 200 doesnt probably matter, but it can impact your SOS a lot
Knicks411
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Sorry, I thought you meant RPI instead of TVI. Is TVI some new metric I missed?
Sounds like the TVI is just part of the NET? I dunno. Def am confused
jncuse
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Most people had us in. That does not mean they had us as a lock. I had us as last team in that year, so I wasn't totally stunned to see us not make it.
kingtidge
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Yeah, I know. It's all academic.
But the I'm still worried since its new and you never know with the committee...
jncuse
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That's the old gaming of the system that existed more in the RPI days.
A poor non conference SOS really hurt your RPI. It doesn't seem to hurt the NET much as you long as you beat those teams by a score you are supposed to beat them by.
kingtidge
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Get to know the NET rankings — and what they mean for the NCAA tournament | NCAA.com
The primary component of the NET is the TVI, a results-based factor that considers the strength of the opponent and the location of the game. If you beat a team that you’re expected to beat, then it doesn’t do as much for your ranking. Losing to teams that you were expected to beat will hurt your ranking.
jncuse
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With the NET I am more worried that teams in the top 50 in NET (like Lipscomb, New MExicos St) who would have not got in the past as at-large, will get the respect now because they obviously trust the NET more than the RPI.
But with respect to us specifically, when I look at the 5 components that make up NET, we are not really outliers in any. The 5 factors are known, its just the weighting that isn't.
That being said since NCSt is so high in the NET, the NCSOS must not be that important a factor.
jncuse
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You would think, but if any team would get killed in the NET it would be NC St, and they are not seemingly hurt at all.
Knicks411
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Yeah so I don't know how its any different than the NET. Right?
kingtidge
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I know.
Hence why I'm worried the committee is going to be explaining snubs on Sunday based on NET and TVI weighting that will not exactly match what the pundits expected.
I hope that's not the case but I don't think it's unreasonable to think we don't yet fully understand how they are going to use NET and TVI exactly.
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kingtidge
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TVI is a component rating as part of NET.
Knicks411
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That's fair, we do have no idea how they're really going to use it. Not sure there's any reason to think we're any more/less likely to have it go against us is all
JaySU22
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Wow, didn’t realize that about N.C. St - it almost seems impossible that they would have the worst non conf SOS with 3 quality opponents on it.
Knicks411
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They played 6 games against teams 315 or worse!
jncuse
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Here is a bit better link from Jerry Palm.
Release of first NET rankings creates more questions than answers when NCAA keeps formula a secret
He mentions the 5 components in the middle of the article.
If there was any particular factor that was really killing us, such as the TVI, our NET would not be where it is at either. By its definition there are certain teams that need to be more worried than us.
People who used to look at RPI and SOS as 2 separate metrics would often misanalyze things, and I think the same thing may be getting done here.
For example, in the past.
Team A - RPI 28 (SOS 11)
Team B - RPI 26 (SOS 78)
Misinformed TV analysts would say -- they have the same RPI, but team A is better because they had a harder schedule -- in fact the SOS is already driving down the RPI, so its wrong to view the SOS like they were doing.
Knicks411
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Yeah, I loved that. SOS was what, 50% of the RPI?? (and 25% was your opponents SOS)
The thing is, I bet the committee itself would double count it a lot as well
orange79
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I think we've discovered the main flaw in the NET - SOS is obviously not as high a factor (see: NC St). They can have an abysmal SOS and still be rated highly (34) while having fewer Q1 wins than SU has. We have played 4 Q4 games - NC St has played 10. This is a fundamental change in philosophy.
In contrast, they have an RPI of 103 (!) while SU's is 41. If they were still using RPI, NC St wouldn't even be close to the bubble.
In contrast, they have an RPI of 103 (!) while SU's is 41. If they were still using RPI, NC St wouldn't even be close to the bubble.