Can't see us getting in if we lose Wednesday | Page 7 | Syracusefan.com

Can't see us getting in if we lose Wednesday

I don’t see it as much of a flaw because it’s more based on how you play and less about gaming your schedule cupcakes. Us and nc st having a similar ranking in NET feels righ, not a 60 place gap like RPI
 
JaySU22 said:
I don’t see it as much of a flaw because it’s more based on how you play and less about gaming your schedule cupcakes. Us and nc st having a similar ranking in NET feels righ, not a 60 place gap like RPI
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Yeah I think "difference" is a better word than "flaw"
 
JaySU22 said:
I don’t see it as much of a flaw because it’s more based on how you play and less about gaming your schedule cupcakes. Us and nc st having a similar ranking in NET feels righ, not a 60 place gap like RPI
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I guess I disagree. It seems you can game the NET just like you could game the RPI. Load up with cupcakes, win them all, and you get ranked highly. That's something the RPI tried to incorporate, which shows in NC St's low RPI.

As I said above, this appears to be a fundamental change in philosophy for the committee. You used to be punished for playing an awful schedule. That no longer appears to be the case.
 
orange79 said:
I guess I disagree. It seems you can game the NET just like you could game the RPI. Load up with cupcakes, win them all, and you get ranked highly. That's something the RPI tried to incorporate, which shows in NC St's low RPI.

As I said above, this appears to be a fundamental change in philosophy for the committee. You used to be punished for playing an awful schedule. That no longer appears to be the case.
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Not necessarily. You need to beat them by more than the system would project you to.
 
If we lose this next game to either BC or PITT I will be nervous come selection sunday. Sometimes watching this team I just can't wait for next season with the new talent and hope things can go somewhat back to normal around here when it comes to Syracuse basketball
 
The notion of this thread is absurd. Please watch more than Syracuse basketball. Please. This is arguably the worst year of college basketball in about a decade. Syracuse is safely in. I will voluntarily ask the admins to ban me from the forum if SU gets left out.
 
Knicks411 said:
Not necessarily. You need to beat them by more than the system would project you to.
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Not sure what you are going for here. The NET does not project spreads. And margin of victory input is capped at 10, I believe.

Unless I am misunderstanding your post.
 
orange79 said:
Not sure what you are going for here. The NET does not project spreads. And margin of victory input is capped at 10, I believe.

Unless I am misunderstanding your post.
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They do cap, but what I mean is, MOV, within the cap, does matter. So it's not enough just to beat lots of bad teams, if you beat them by 1 or 2 points, that's not the same as beating them by 10 or more.

Of course, it would be nice if the NCAA was a little more transparent with how things are calculated. But it does generally reconcile pretty well with Ken Pom, which doesn't cap MOV. Like, NC State is 32 in the NET, 31 in KP, and over 100 in RPI. What do you think is a more accurate representation of how good they are? 30 or 100?

Also, the fact that they say they cap MOV at 10 but have many similar outputs to KP, makes me question that just a little. It could be a moving target, like if you're playing a really bad team they may cap the # a little higher.
 
orange79 said:
As much as you don't want to believe it, they are a Q1 win for us. And even if they lose out, they will be a Q1 win for us. A road win, too.
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They are sinking like a stone. If they lose in the big ten tourney will they?
 
orange79 said:
I guess I disagree. It seems you can game the NET just like you could game the RPI. Load up with cupcakes, win them all, and you get ranked highly. That's something the RPI tried to incorporate, which shows in NC St's low RPI.

As I said above, this appears to be a fundamental change in philosophy for the committee. You used to be punished for playing an awful schedule. That no longer appears to be the case.
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Not sure about that.

It's not only about winning against cupcakes, but beating them by a sufficient amount. So they try to equalize it. If the average NET "50" team beats those teams by 25, you have to beat them by 25 to maintain pace.

It's the same as KP -- you don't have to play the hardest schedule, but if not you need to have a higher scoring margin to make up for it.

One thing it does do however, is create no incentive to test yourself in OOC. It will not change the P5 schools scheduling tactics, and it won't help the better mid-majors get chances against those schools.
 
orange79 said:
As much as you don't want to believe it, they are a Q1 win for us. And even if they lose out, they will be a Q1 win for us. A road win, too.
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Exactly and you have to consider the Kaleb Wesson factor also. Will he really be back if they make the tourney?
 
Briancuse said:
They are sinking like a stone. If they lose in the big ten tourney will they?
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Yes. They are currently 49. If they lose today to #15 WI, they fall to maybe 55 at worst. They will play #50 Indiana in their conference tournament. If they lose, that's a Q2 loss, at worst. If they win they play MSU, currently #8.

It would be virtually impossible for them to fall to a NET of 76 or worse. Hence, they will be a Q1 win for us.
 
jncuse said:
Not sure about that.

It's not only about winning against cupcakes, but beating them by a sufficient amount. So they try to equalize it. If the average NET "50" team beats those teams by 25, you have to beat them by 25 to maintain pace.

It's the same as KP -- you don't have to play the hardest schedule, but if not you need to have a higher scoring margin to make up for it.

One thing it does do however, is create no incentive to test yourself in OOC. It will not change the P5 schools scheduling tactics, and it won't help the better mid-majors get chances against those schools.
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It would certainly help if there was more transparency by the NCAA as to how it is actually calculated.
 
heresjohnny88 said:
.

OSU is brutal but Syracuse might miss the tournament. Not sure you realize how absurd that sounds. OSU is the bubble this year.
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Osu just tied it. I said osu was brutal nothing about our chances.
 
kcsu said:
Lets win a game and stop backing into the tournament. Geez have we fallen so far we cant expect a win against Pitt or BC.
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Lol. Even some of our best teams struggled with pitt.
 
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