Clemson Opens -7.5

[rrlbees]

I can't tell who's right or not since I can't see 'Cuse on my DK (NYS resident), but a 3 point swing in 10 minutes (from Kirbivore's at 9:17am to Bees at 9:27am) seems too high. But ironically, the OP's subject header of -7.5 is right smack in the middle of the two.

I’m in NY obviously but I can read kirbivores link.

 

[NKR1978]

Clemson outplayed FSU yesterday. 9 more first downs, 120 more total yards. They lost because FSU basically made a 14 point play on that fumble return and Clemson missed a dead on 29 yard field goal.

I know they’re 2-2 but they’re still a Top 10-15 level team IMO.

Clemson is starting to wrack up a lot of losses where they outplayed the winning team. Tennessee, South Carolina, Duke, and now FSU. At some point we have to stop giving them credit for their losses.

 

[690West]

I can't tell who's right or not since I can't see 'Cuse on my DK (NYS resident), but a 3 point swing in 10 minutes (from Kirbivore's at 9:17am to Bees at 9:27am) seems too high. But ironically, the OP's subject header of -7.5 is right smack in the middle of the two.

The +9 is from September 20th

Will be updated around 2:00pm

 

[NKR1978]

Syracuse ML is the play here. Back the truck up...

From Baby Billy’s mouth to God’s ears.

 

[MikeSU02]

I think this game will end up being close provided our special teams are good.

But Clemson has a ton of talent out there.

If we had our OL locked and OG, I would feel wayyyy better.

The one thing I’d say is that I’m wondering if Dabo is on the precipice of losing the thread of the season. All due respect because they have been on an historic run, but man it seems like the payment is due.

 

[McNabb2Brominski]

I dunno about that -- we are playing a 2-2 team at home that hasn't been ranked in weeks, that was also destroyed by Duke. And their only 2 wins were against Charleston Southern and Florida Atlantic. Meanwhile our Orange have won every game by a minimum of 13 points, with an average margin of victory of 34 over the first third of the season. The +7.5 actually seems disrespectful to me.

not really. We haven’t really played anyone good yet. Army is prob the best team we played so far. Colgate might be the worst team in FCS. West Mich might be the worst team in G5. Purdue was good win on the road, but they maybe they’re just bad.

Clem lost to a really good Duke team and was a chip shot FG away from beating FSU. They’re still a top 20ish team imo

 

[Orangezoo]

Clemson outplayed FSU yesterday. 9 more first downs, 120 more total yards. They lost because FSU basically made a 14 point play on that fumble return and Clemson missed a dead on 29 yard field goal.

I know they’re 2-2 but they’re still a Top 10-15 level team IMO.

They are stout on D (but did lose a key starter at DB). That said I think FSU was a bit inflated after the LSU win. LSU was definitely overrated and might still be. That clear separation in the ACC is gone ( and honestly it looks that way across the country). Win the matchups we have the advantage, execute and don't give up turnovers and a short field and this is just another league game not trying to slay a giant.

 

[MikeSU02]

They are stout on D. That said I think FSU was a bit inflated after the LSU win. LSU was definitely overrated and might still be. That clear separation in the ACC is gone ( and honestly it looks that way across the country). Win the matchups we have the advantage, execute and don't give up turnovers and a short field and this is just another league game not trying to slay a giant.

When Travis is healthy, I think FSU is above everyone else in the ACC, easily. Issue is he’s dinged up.

That’s the only note on your post I would say. Everything else I agree with.

 

[NKR1978]

I think this game will end up being close provided our special teams are good.

But Clemson has a ton of talent out there.

If we had our OL locked and OG, I would feel wayyyy better.

The one thing I’d say is that I’m wondering if Dabo is on the precipice of losing the thread of the season. All due respect because they have been on an historic run, but man it seems like the payment is due.

If Dabo realizes he needs to adapt and really hold his assistants accountable, they’ll be fine. For a not very old man he has some very old man views on college football. He needs to bury those views if Clemson is going to get back to where they want to be.

 

[Orangezoo]

When Travis is healthy, I think FSU is above everyone else in the ACC, easily. Issue is he’s dinged up.

That’s the only note on your post I would say. Everything else I agree with.

No doubt offensively (which is more than enough). I will say their defense has been far less as impressive. Wondering if Verse is maybe dinged up too? He has been barely visible to date this year.

 

[721Comstock]

Clemson is starting to wrack up a lot of losses where they outplayed the winning team. Tennessee, South Carolina, Duke, and now FSU. At some point we have to stop giving them credit for their losses.

Clemson lost to a team that beat Clemson @ Death Valley, so that’s a quality loss.



Doesn’t work quite as well as the Bama version.

 

[tep624]

We were down to Army at home at halftime and they took a top 5 team to OT. I get it.

 

[storange]

We were down to Army at home at halftime and they took a top 5 team to OT. I get it.

Ha , so your basing it on our worst half of football in 4 games. By Far… that’s a bit of negative spin.

 

[tep624]

Ha , so your basing it on our worst half of football in 4 games. By Far… that’s a bit of negative spin.

I’m basing it on what the lines makers are basing it on. It’s not what have you done it’s what have you done lately.

 

[storange]

I’m basing it on what the lines makers are basing it on. It’s not what have you done it’s what have you done lately.

I would argue the opposite. Some of it is based on who you have been. Clemson was Highly ranked to start season and SU was out of sight. Flip the resumes for this year only and Clemson would be 20 pt favorites … because of their name. I’ll would bet the Orange “money line “ and feel pretty good about it.

 

[syrBossHogg]

ESPN giving us a 55.1% chance to win

Need to have a better start than yesterday to have a chance

 

[djorange1989]

If Dabo realizes he needs to adapt and really hold his assistants accountable, they’ll be fine. For a not very old man he has some very old man views on college football. He needs to bury those views if Clemson is going to get back to where they want to be.

I think I have the solution for Clemson if they want to bring in a fresh young mind:

Lou. Holtz.

 

[Cusefan95]

I’m basing it on what the lines makers are basing it on. It’s not what have you done it’s what have you done lately.

One thing I’m certain of is that what you’ve done lately is a very, very small part of what linemakers look at to set a line (in their effort to get even money on both teams). A big percentage of bettors now look at analytics, which is why they are generally a good proxy for where the line will land. That this line is deviating so far from what analytics indicate it should be is pretty unusual, and it probably means they think a HUGE percentage of bettors overestimate how good Clemson is AND underestimate how good Syracuse is. What will be even more shocking is if the line doesn’t move significantly the way the Purdue line did, because smart money should be hammering Cuse right now. I can see a bad line getting set; staying there would mean I’m missing something in assessing the wisdom of the masses here.

 

[djorange1989]

ESPN giving us a 55.1% chance to win

Need to have a better start than yesterday to have a chance

Agree. We usually give them fits, and usually have done that by starting off well, just haven’t been able to finish the game. Need the ole 4 quarters of good football to win

 

[HOFCeluck]

FREE MONEY BI&$&ES

 

[tep624]

I would argue the opposite. Some of it is based on who you have been. Clemson was Highly ranked to start season and SU was out of sight. Flip the resumes for this year only and Clemson would be 20 pt favorites … because of their name. I’ll would bet the Orange “money line “ and feel pretty good about it.

I really doubt the lines makers are taking into account historical reputations. Clemson looks like a team that finally woke up against FSU and we look like a team that was down at halftime against a team we had no business being down at halftime against. It is what it is.

 

[sufandu]

This.

Clemson doesn’t suck. They aren’t coming like Petrino’s last Louisville team.

We need to have four quarters of good football in us on Saturday.

Yeah. This Clemson team feels like our McNabb era teams that would have a what-the-heck loss or stumble early then run off a bunch of games to have a good year.

 

[OrangeDW]

This feels a lot like the ND game last year, at least as far as the opponent’s season is concerned. Regardless of their disappointing start, they’re still one of the two toughest teams on our schedule this season.

At least Shrader is healthy for this one though. Seems we’ll need a monster and mistake free game from him, and we’ll need to force multiple turnovers.

 

[0.2 YNdeeR]

This feels a lot like the ND game last year, at least as far as the opponent’s season is concerned. Regardless of their disappointing start, they’re still one of the two toughest teams on our schedule this season.

At least Shrader is healthy for this one though. Seems we’ll need a monster and mistake free game from him, and we’ll need to force multiple turnovers.

No OG. But it's a Dome game. Our DL is much improved over last year's version (that Shipley torched). Shrader is also healthy - he's a difference maker if he can hit some completions early and back off their safeties.

 

[upperdeck]

FSU ran for 22 yds yesterday. That is not good for us.