Cuomo allowing pro sports to restart - Can NY college teams be far behind?

[NJCuse97]

I posted an article the other day that a study was done for the horseshoe and they only got to about 18 percent with distancing.

 

[NineOneSeven]

The downside. If your argument is "That was 100 years ago--we've learned a lot since", think again. The primary public health response to a pandemic is the same now as it was in the Middle Ages vs. the plague-- shelter in place, maintain social distancing, cover your face. A vaccine would change things, but the development of same is no sure thing. (Plus, what percentage of the population will refuse any vaccine, period?)

The Cost of Rushing Back to Sports: A Star’s Life (Published 2020)

The 1919 Stanley Cup finals were more than a century ago, but they are bound to current reality by the struggle against a deadly virus and the push for sports to return.

www.nytimes.com

The ones not following basic guidelines.

 

[longtimefan]

I posted an article the other day that a study was done for the horseshoe and they only got to about 18 percent with distancing.

Which would be ~20.000.

 

[sutomcat]

I posted an article the other day that a study was done for the horseshoe and they only got to about 18 percent with distancing.

From what I have seen, the big stadiums, Ohio State. Michigan Tennessee, Penn State etc. are unbelievably tightly packed in the quest to fit as many people into a limited space as possible.

If they ty and do social distancing seating, they are surely going to be the stadia that will have the lowest percentages of fans allowed to attend games. They are also without question the worst places to watch games in the country. It is unbelievable how far the seats in the highest row of Beaver Stadium are from the field. The other old, giant stadia are also awfut. Yuck,

 

[longtimefan]

The ones not following basic guidelines.

The number may be higher than we might have predicted even a couple of months ago, due to politics--the "Liberators" have merged to some extent with the anti-vaxxers. In other words, a mandatory vaccine would be characterized by some as the same sort of impingement on freedom as the shelter-in-place orders are.

 

[RandomGuy]

Back to the OP.

With living arrangements, food, and an educational component... How far behind are college sports?

A clear economic factor with Cuse, but others, less so. The same would have to hold through divisions. UB, Colgate, Cornell... and who decides if ARMY can resume? (Please dont make the last one political. Simply a question of local/fed control as they could rightfully be under either mandate)

 

[NJCuse97]

Which would be ~20.000.

More like 10,000

 

[NJCuse97]

More like 10,000

Unless you meant OSU, then yes. Sorry.

 

[rrlbees]

I posted an article the other day that a study was done for the horseshoe and they only got to about 18 percent with distancing.

i did my own model of the dome and I get about 6,000 with social distancing. A couple of caveats are that it only included the seating area. Did not include boxes nor the possibility of some standing room with social distancing. I also don’t know how to account for same household fans. Do a husband and wife still have to be seated 6 ft apart? I’d guess with some creativity we could get to 8,000 fans.

 

[NJCuse97]

i did my own model of the dome and I get about 6,000 with social distancing. A couple of caveats are that it only included the seating area. Did not include boxes nor the possibility of some standing room with social distancing. I also don’t know how to account for same household fans. Do a husband and wife still have to be seated 6 ft apart? I’d guess with some creativity we could get to 8,000 fans.

OSU study said no more than 6 to a group

 

[rrlbees]

OSU study said no more than 6 to a group

6 in an immediate family or 6 buddies?

 

[NJCuse97]

6 in an immediate family or 6 buddies?

Don’t think they took that into account

 

[CuseLegacy]

i did my own model of the dome and I get about 6,000 with social distancing. A couple of caveats are that it only included the seating area. Did not include boxes nor the possibility of some standing room with social distancing. I also don’t know how to account for same household fans. Do a husband and wife still have to be seated 6 ft apart? I’d guess with some creativity we could get to 8,000 fans.

I'd say family members, who live together, can sit together. Churches reopening allow for family to sit together.

 

[rrlbees]

I'd say family members, who live together, can sit together. Churches reopening allow for family to sit together.

that would be my guess too. For any college it’ll be a logistical nightmare.

 

[CuseLegacy]

that would be my guess too. For any college it’ll be a logistical nightmare.

They'll probably be masked. My thought is would they open the concessions...can't eat or drink with a mask on.

 

[UpstateSM]

I'd say family members, who live together, can sit together. Churches reopening allow for family to sit together.

Seems impossible to police in a sporting event setting

 

[TexanMark]

Back to the OP.

With living arrangements, food, and an educational component... How far behind are college sports?

A clear economic factor with Cuse, but others, less so. The same would have to hold through divisions. UB, Colgate, Cornell... and who decides if ARMY can resume? (Please dont make the last one political. Simply a question of local/fed control as they could rightfully be under either mandate)

Army is a military reservation

Under Federal jurisdiction... however, they will generally follow state guidance. (Good neighbor policy). However, if a state gets too dogmatic than can tell a state to pound sand and they will do what they think is common sense.

However, they could easily limit games to Active Duty, DoD employees and cadets. The cadets are basically quarantined anyways lol

 

[Ozzie0075]

that would be my guess too. For any college it’ll be a logistical nightmare.

That's why if with social distancing you can only get 6-12K in the Dome it likely wouldn't be worth it play with fans.

 

[TexanMark]

The downside. If your argument is "That was 100 years ago--we've learned a lot since", think again. The primary public health response to a pandemic is the same now as it was in the Middle Ages vs. the plague-- shelter in place, maintain social distancing, cover your face. A vaccine would change things, but the development of same is no sure thing. (Plus, what percentage of the population will refuse any vaccine, period?)

The Cost of Rushing Back to Sports: A Star’s Life (Published 2020)

The 1919 Stanley Cup finals were more than a century ago, but they are bound to current reality by the struggle against a deadly virus and the push for sports to return.

www.nytimes.com

It is now thought this virus has a much, much lower mortality rate. The virus may be mutating to a less lethal virus. I just don't see the need to keep kids out school this Fall. Play football, practice social distancing and mask wear...the unintended consequences very likely will be worse than the virus.

 

[TexanMark]

That's why if with social distancing you can only get 6-12K in the Dome it likely wouldn't be worth it play with fans.

If you can play with 6-12K fans you play. It would be idiotic to not capture some revenue if you are allowed.

 

[longtimefan]

It is now thought this virus has a much, much lower mortality rate. The virus may be mutating to a less lethal virus. I just don't see the need to keep kids out school this Fall. Play football, practice social distancing and mask wear...the unintended consequences very likely will be worse than the virus.

I think there's still a lot of guesswork out there.

And mortality rates are only part of the equation. If, for example, the mortality rate is only half that of a seasonal flu (say H1N1), but the infection rate is 4 times higher (which it could be, because of the long incubation period and the prevalence of asymptomatic carriers) then there would be twice as many deaths.

 

[TexanMark]

I think there's still a lot of guesswork out there.

And mortality rates are only part of the equation. If, for example, the mortality rate is only half that of a seasonal flu (say H1N1), but the infection rate is 4 times higher (which it could be, because of the long incubation period and the prevalence of asymptomatic carriers) then there would be twice as many deaths.

That makes sense but at some point you have to open up. We built enough ventilators, we have hospital ships temporary field hospitals, more PPE...vice ruining the economy and killing folks through delayed routine health care, etc...

 

[longtimefan]

That makes sense but at some point you have to open up. We built enough ventilators, we have hospital ships temporary field hospitals, more PPE...vice ruining the economy and killing folks through delayed routine health care, etc...

"at some point"--there's the rub, as Hamlet said.

 

[RandomGuy]

Army is a military reservation

Under Federal jurisdiction... however, they will generally follow state guidance. (Good neighbor policy). However, if a state gets too dogmatic than can tell a state to pound sand and they will do what they think is common sense.

However, they could easily limit games to Active Duty, DoD employees and cadets. The cadets are basically quarantined anyways lol

Thanks.

So basically, if Cuomo holds off on college ball 'til July 1... If the feds want to make it political, they can use Army. I DONT think that will happen. (As you say, Cadets are basically quarantined, with the discipline to be truly quarantined). Nor does it seem a worthwhile political gamble, when other returning colleges can take that risk.

The NY return policy will be interesting on a few levels.

 

[RandomGuy]

I think there's still a lot of guesswork out there.

And mortality rates are only part of the equation. If, for example, the mortality rate is only half that of a seasonal flu (say H1N1), but the infection rate is 4 times higher (which it could be, because of the long incubation period and the prevalence of asymptomatic carriers) then there would be twice as many deaths.

There is. The Boston antibody study from last week - using tests with 99.8 accuracy indicated possible 0.78% mortality. Nearly mirroring the NY study, that had legitimate concerns., including test specificity. ..(.74% mortality) (that's 7.5 times the seasonal flu, but far better than the 50+ times official known #)

While there is a need for an economy, balancing it is going to be very difficult. With regards to football, some of these attendance guesses may be the new norm. I think Michigans pres, said no fans? No football, yesterday... I think the only certainty is that this is going to be weird, and a little messed up.