Cuomo allowing pro sports to restart - Can NY college teams be far behind?

[sufandu]

The number may be higher than we might have predicted even a couple of months ago, due to politics--the "Liberators" have merged to some extent with the anti-vaxxers. In other words, a mandatory vaccine would be characterized by some as the same sort of impingement on freedom as the shelter-in-place orders are.

I don't think a vaccine would have to be made mandatory for it to be effective. I've been listening to Doctor Radio a lot on Sirius (shows are hosted by a bunch of NYU doctors). Some experts were saying with the characteristics of this virus we would need 60% of the population to be immune to reach herd immunity. I would think we would get at least that many people that would want a vaccine. The long term question is, whether you've contracted and recovered or been vaccinated, how long are you immune? Is it temporary or permanent? If it is an annual vaccine, you probably get fewer people that bother with it every year.

 

[Briancuse]

I don't think a vaccine would have to be made mandatory for it to be effective. I've been listening to Doctor Radio a lot on Sirius (shows are hosted by a bunch of NYU doctors). Some experts were saying with the characteristics of this virus we would need 60% of the population to be immune to reach herd immunity. I would think we would get at least that many people that would want a vaccine. The long term question is, whether you've contracted and recovered or been vaccinated, how long are you immune? Is it temporary or permanent? If it is an annual vaccine, you probably get fewer people that bother with it every year.

If we're waiting for a vaccine to resume life were in for a long unbearable time. At some point we are going to have to bite the bullet and just do the best that we can. Limit fans wash hands etc etc

 

[sufandu]

That makes sense but at some point you have to open up. We built enough ventilators, we have hospital ships temporary field hospitals, more PPE...vice ruining the economy and killing folks through delayed routine health care, etc...

Delaying routine healthcare is unnecessary now. Doctor's offices are setting things up so that social distancing can be maintained, some are checking temperatures, and most people are wearing masks. All of my patients are high risk (home health) and any that need in person doctor appointments are going. People not seeing their doctors at this point is out of uneducated fear, not the lack of opening up.

If people do things responsibly, we can open up successfully much quicker. The problem is, people are viewing the relaxation of restrictions as permission to refrain from doing what they're supposed to. Everytime I go somewhere, I see fewer people wearing masks and maintaining correct distancing. Then you have the videos on the news this weekend of huge gatherings.

A ventilator won't save everyone. People being irresponsible will kill people that could have otherwise lived quite a bit longer.

 

[Briancuse]

Delaying routine healthcare is unnecessary now. Doctor's offices are setting things up so that social distancing can be maintained, some are checking temperatures, and most people are wearing masks. All of my patients are high risk (home health) and any that need in person doctor appointments are going. People not seeing their doctors at this point is out of uneducated fear, not the lack of opening up.

If people do things responsibly, we can open up successfully much quicker. The problem is, people are viewing the relaxation of restrictions as permission to refrain from doing what they're supposed to. Everytime I go somewhere, I see fewer people wearing masks and maintaining correct distancing. Then you have the videos on the news this weekend of huge gatherings.

A ventilator won't save everyone. People being irresponsible will kill people that could have otherwise lived quite a bit longer.

Masks are very uncomfortable I have a tough time breathing in one for longer than a few minutes. I only wear it when I'm at the store.

 

[AAM62]

I think there's still a lot of guesswork out there.

And mortality rates are only part of the equation. If, for example, the mortality rate is only half that of a seasonal flu (say H1N1), but the infection rate is 4 times higher (which it could be, because of the long incubation period and the prevalence of asymptomatic carriers) then there would be twice as many deaths.

Not to mention the overall Mortality rate will go up do to overcapacity of the healthcare system

 

[sufandu]

If we're waiting for a vaccine to resume life were in for a long unbearable time. At some point we are going to have to bite the bullet and just do the best that we can. Limit fans wash hands etc etc

That wasn't the point of my post.

 

[sufandu]

Masks are very uncomfortable I have a tough time breathing in one for longer than a few minutes. I only wear it when I'm at the store.

I'm glad you wear one at the store. I wear one all day for work. Surgeons and nurses wear them for hours continuously in surgery and now in covid ICUs. They're annoying but not unbearable. If the discomfort of wearing a mask for anyone that does not have a serious respiratory issue (a small minority) keeps them from doing it, they're selflish and irresponsible, and it simply shows how wussy we've become as a society that we can't be slighlty uncomfortable for a few minutes at a time.

 

[RandomGuy]

Masks are very uncomfortable I have a tough time breathing in one for longer than a few minutes. I only wear it when I'm at the store.

For those that do struggle with a mask, but still wear them... Thanks.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

I was speaking with 2 Admins of Oswego State yesterday. A plan be floated is that only freshman are on campus, in singles. Maybe M,W,F & TU,TH,S class schedule.
Huge issues with contracts, especially TAs, having lapsed.
Also, they are worried that down state issues will impact upstate campuses.
Its a mess. Numbers are down, in a big way.
One has a close relative at OCC. They expect numbers to be up this year..
Most of the adults there agreed that kids should just take a gap year.

 

[HtownOrange]

New Jersey is now open for pro teams to practice and play. Restrictions apply.

Having issues attempting to copy link from ESPN via my phone, any assistance is appreciated.

 

[TexanMark]

Covid-19 mortality rate down to under 1/3rd of a percent per CDC. Approaching bad flu year rates.

The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current "best estimate" for the fatality rate among Americans...

reason.com

 

[JRHEETER]

Covid-19 mortality rate down to under 1/3rd of a percent per CDC. Approaching bad flu year rates.

The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current "best estimate" for the fatality rate among Americans...

reason.com

Yup looking at .24% mortality rate...meaning it has a 99.8% survival rate....

the flu overall has a .1% mortality rate...

Cuomo has now admitted that they were very wrong on this.

once again, I stand by my position that we did the right thing to shut down until we found out more information and could study it...now that we know it...I think cancelling things for this fall and even late this summer are not good ideas.

 

[Orangezoo]

So how do concessions and tailgating work into this? You can certainly distance groups and individuals but then I would think you have to closely monitor concession lines, people in the walkways and then the massive undertaking of tailgating. Is tailgating banned ? When you look at PSU for example they might have another 5-10k outside who never enter the stadium on gamedays. Personally I think these are as big of a challenge as the seating.

 

[JRHEETER]

So how do concessions and tailgating work into this? You can certainly distance groups and individuals but then I would think you have to closely monitor concession lines, people in the walkways and then the massive undertaking of tailgating. Is tailgating banned ? When you look at PSU for example they might have another 5-10k outside who never enter the stadium on gamedays. Personally I think these are as big of a challenge as the seating.

If you can’t have concessions they won’t have fans...the only reason schools want fans is so they can make money. The only reason schools have concessions is so they can make money off of the fans

As far as tailgating, not much you can control but you’re allowed to gather in groups of under 10 now...so I mean...that’s in the open air, I would be less concerned about tailgates

 

[NineOneSeven]

If you can’t have concessions they won’t have fans...the only reason schools want fans is so they can make money. The only reason schools have concessions is so they can make money off of the fans

As far as tailgating, not much you can control but you’re allowed to gather in groups of under 10 now...so I mean...that’s in the open air, I would be less concerned about tailgates

People spend so much money on concessions, blows my mind. If you have little ones, sure I get it. Food can keep them busy. But I will never understand buying full on meals at games, sometimes multiple times. Same at movie theatres. To each their own, I guess.

That said... love me some Dome nachos.

 

[Bayside44]

So how do concessions and tailgating work into this? You can certainly distance groups and individuals but then I would think you have to closely monitor concession lines, people in the walkways and then the massive undertaking of tailgating. Is tailgating banned ? When you look at PSU for example they might have another 5-10k outside who never enter the stadium on gamedays. Personally I think these are as big of a challenge as the seating.

The move that many teams have already made to cashless will continue for sure. Buying off apps and bar codes with pre-loaded funds it will be. Exchanging money at least will be a thing of the past.

 

[Orangezoo]

People spend so much money on concessions, blows my mind. If you have little ones, sure I get it. Food can keep them busy. But I will never understand buying full on meals at games, sometimes multiple times. Same at movie theatres. To each their own, I guess.

That said... love me some Dome nachos.

We usually always have that one thing or two for that matter. That said I agree as it ends up being more of a pain than not. Feast and shop pre or post game.

 

[Orangezoo]

If you can’t have concessions they won’t have fans...the only reason schools want fans is so they can make money. The only reason schools have concessions is so they can make money off of the fans

As far as tailgating, not much you can control but you’re allowed to gather in groups of under 10 now...so I mean...that’s in the open air, I would be less concerned about tailgates

Yeah I'm not as worried about the risk as I am how it impacts the ability for college sports to have fans. It obviously depends on the school a lot. Penn St is a pretty extreme example. As for tailgating the outdoors aspect helps. To that extend I wonder how much a dome vs outdoor stadium plays into this too.

 

[sufandu]

Covid-19 mortality rate down to under 1/3rd of a percent per CDC. Approaching bad flu year rates.

The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current "best estimate" for the fatality rate among Americans...

reason.com

Yup looking at .24% mortality rate...meaning it has a 99.8% survival rate...

the flu overall has a .1% mortality rate...

Cuomo has now admitted that they were very wrong on this.

once again, I stand by my position that we did the right thing to shut down until we found out more information and could study it...now that we know it...I think cancelling things for this fall and even late this summer are not good ideas.

So that's still 2.5 times as deadly as flu. As mentioned earlier, mortality rate is only one piece of the puzzle. Covid is much more contagious. How else would we have 100,000 deaths in 3 months despite taking all the precautions we have?

 

[rrlbees]

Covid-19 mortality rate down to under 1/3rd of a percent per CDC. Approaching bad flu year rates.

The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current "best estimate" for the fatality rate among Americans...

reason.com

I’m not sure I’d place much confidence in those numbers right now. The data is from April which is before the CDC found and admitted they were commingling the test numbers of viral testing and antibody tests. Several states were doing the same. Many scientists have questioned that kind of number right now. We have about 1.7m documented positive cases. If the fatality rate was that low, we’d have about 50,000 deaths right now. We have 100,000.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

Yup looking at .24% mortality rate...meaning it has a 99.8% survival rate...

the flu overall has a .1% mortality rate...

Cuomo has now admitted that they were very wrong on this.

once again, I stand by my position that we did the right thing to shut down until we found out more information and could study it...now that we know it...I think cancelling things for this fall and even late this summer are not good ideas.

No one, Rep or Dem, Pres., Sen. Rep., Gov., Mayor, etc., was ever going to 100% right on this. I really wish the President had call Nancy and Mitch to a press conference early on and said "no politics. Do what's right. Mistakes will be made. Hindsight is 20/20. Let the voters decide in Nov who did a good job, but lets move forward helping America. "

I will believe that everyone acted in this with best intentions (boondoggles on spending aside, of which both sides of the aisle have blame).

I think that going at people for mistakes made with this is, in general, not right. Even the NH issue in NY was to make sure the hospitals had capacity. Now it looks like a tremendous blunder, but what if the predictions had been right?

Social Media has sped up the reaction timeline, and not always for the better.

 

[RandomGuy]

Covid-19 mortality rate down to under 1/3rd of a percent per CDC. Approaching bad flu year rates.

The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current "best estimate" for the fatality rate among Americans...

reason.com

This would be positive news, in a sea of bad news. The best antibody studies were showing 0.75% mortality. Of course, if you are one, it doesn't matter.

I'd love to see the study. For now, I went for a left leaning publication(because everything is politicized). While they refused to use the 0.25% figure, the math checks out. 60% infection rate. (* I used the Columbia Profs # to find the rate, as they didnt state it) 0.25% mortality equate to the #'s they use for how they wanted to frame the argument.

I'll take 0.25% over all the other estimates, especially the known case, 5.9% number.

Scientists Say New, Lower CDC Estimates For Severity Of COVID-19 Are Optimistic

A new model released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention forecasts millions fewer hospitalizations and roughly 100,000 fewer deaths than it predicted a month ago.

www.npr.org

 

[kcsu]

I’m not sure I’d place much confidence in those numbers right now. The data is from April which is before the CDC found and admitted they were commingling the test numbers of viral testing and antibody tests. Several states were doing the same. Many scientists have questioned that kind of number right now. We have about 1.7m documented positive cases. If the fatality rate was that low, we’d have about 50,000 deaths right now. We have 100,000.

Dr Friends at the Mayo said overall CO 19 is about 1.5× Flu

 

[DMDMD]

This would be positive news, in a sea of bad news. The best antibody studies were showing 0.75% mortality. Of course, if you are one, it doesn't matter.

I'd love to see the study. For now, I went for a left leaning publication(because everything is politicized). While they refused to use the 0.25% figure, the math checks out. 60% infection rate. (* I used the Columbia Profs # to find the rate, as they didnt state it) 0.25% mortality equate to the #'s they use for how they wanted to frame the argument.

I'll take 0.25% over all the other estimates, especially the known case, 5.9% number.

Scientists Say New, Lower CDC Estimates For Severity Of COVID-19 Are Optimistic

A new model released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention forecasts millions fewer hospitalizations and roughly 100,000 fewer deaths than it predicted a month ago.

www.npr.org

The 0.25% is very optimistic. The CDC records 17,442 deaths in NYC with a population of 8.4 million people. Thats 0.2% of the entire NYC population right there.

 

[UpstateSM]