Cuse Will Disappoint This Year?

[Cuse'91]

To me, it's like paying for home owners ins/auto ins... Sure, it costs me money at the end of the year, but do I not have it because I probably won't need it? Playing your 8th and 9th player for 5mins a game is like paying a premium just in case you need them to contribute at the end of the season. That equates to almost 3-4 full games in terms of playing time. Then maybe when our starting center goes down in the BE Tourney or gets disqualified because he can't read, we have a guy that is used to playing basketball in front of people and ESPN cameras...

 

[jordoo]

To me, it's like paying for home owners ins/auto ins... Sure, it costs me money at the end of the year, but do I not have it because I probably won't need it? Playing your 8th and 9th player for 5mins a game is like paying a premium just in case you need them to contribute at the end of the season. That equates to almost 3-4 full games in terms of playing time. Then maybe when our starting center goes down in the BE Tourney or gets disqualified because he can't read, we have a guy that is used to playing basketball in front of people and ESPN cameras...

If you lose a star player late in the season you probably aren't making the FF no matter how much time the deep bench has gotten over the course season. There is a reason that they were bench players after all. Certainly you are better off than having completely inexperienced replacements but you have to be realistic. It makes more sense to say it keeps your guys fresh than say it actually protects you in the case of losing key players. They were key players because they are better than the other guys.

 

[Henny & Coke]

For the life of me...I can't see this team winning more than 20-22 games. I see us as a borderline NCAA team. I don't see any go to guys on this team.

Short answer: You're most likely wrong.

Why? Well, mostly because of this - (from John Gasaway's SU 2013-14 Team Preview) "the program hasn't entered the NCAA tournament seeded lower than No. 4 since the (George W.) Bush administration."

In fact, I'm wondering if you even realize that the kind of season you're predicting (22 or less wins) last happened to SU 7 years ago, when the 07-08 team went 21-14. And that 07-08 team is the only SU team in the last 15 years that finished a season with less than 23 wins. So you're suggesting that the 2014-15 SU team will fail to reach 23 wins for just the second time in the past 16 seasons?

Do you realize this? Do you realize that the last 5 SU teams won an average of 29.8 games per season? So you're suggesting that the 2014-15 SU team will fail to come within 8 wins of their 5 year average?

You really see that much reason to go against multiple data points (SU's recent history of results) that all suggest that Syracuse Basketball, year in & year out, will be a top 25ish team and a top seed in the NCAA Tournament when all is said and done? What are these reasons? Major upheaval in the coaching staff? Have we already suffered major injuries to players who were planned to be integral to the season? Major suspensions?

Honestly, if you are at all aware of SU's recent history of results/success (aka, many of the statistics I lay out above) and you still truely believe that SU will win only 20-22 games this season (and, thus, deviate GREATLY from that recent history of success)...then either you are privy to some shocking information about this year's team that I just do not have...or I greatly question your ability to honestly & objectively evaluate a team's prospect for success in an upcoming season, given the information we know about that team.

 

[moqui]

To me, it's like paying for home owners ins/auto ins... Sure, it costs me money at the end of the year, but do I not have it because I probably won't need it? Playing your 8th and 9th player for 5mins a game is like paying a premium just in case you need them to contribute at the end of the season. That equates to almost 3-4 full games in terms of playing time. Then maybe when our starting center goes down in the BE Tourney or gets disqualified because he can't read, we have a guy that is used to playing basketball in front of people and ESPN cameras...

you seem to forget that when AO went down & when Fab was DQd, Syracuse already had two of the best backup centers in school history available. Playing Dash Riley 5 mpg would not have made him ready for prime time but would have hurt Ricky's development a little bit and likely could have cost SU the #1 seed with an extra loss or two along the way

Same for Fab - BMK & Roc already had a ton of court time that season; the only likely option for bench development that year would have been more time for MCW or Mookie Jones. Neither would have helped with the Fab situation, but either could have cost a couple of wins and the #1 seed.

I know it is tempting to think that there is a magic bullet hidden somewhere in the ammo box, but the good players are already playing Deep benchers are deep benchers for a reason.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Finally, some basketball talk!

I think this year we have a low floor, and high ceiling, relative to past teams. Might sound obvious, but that essentially means anything is possible, and we will NEED to have solid player development over the course of the year, something that we seemingly lacked last year.

 

[TexanMark]

Short answer: You're most likely wrong.

Why? Well, mostly because of this - (from John Gasaway's SU 2013-14 Team Preview) "the program hasn't entered the NCAA tournament seeded lower than No. 4 since the (George W.) Bush administration."

In fact, I'm wondering if you even realize that the kind of season you're predicting (22 or less wins) last happened to SU 7 years ago, when the 07-08 team went 21-14. And that 07-08 team is the only SU team in the last 15 years that finished a season with less than 23 wins. So you're suggesting that the 2014-15 SU team will fail to reach 23 wins for just the second time in the past 16 seasons?

Do you realize this? Do you realize that the last 5 SU teams won an average of 29.8 games per season? So you're suggesting that the 2014-15 SU team will fail to come within 8 wins of their 5 year average?

You really see that much reason to go against multiple data points (SU's recent history of results) that all suggest that Syracuse Basketball, year in & year out, will be a top 25ish team and a top seed in the NCAA Tournament when all is said and done? What are these reasons? Major upheaval in the coaching staff? Have we already suffered major injuries to players who were planned to be integral to the season? Major suspensions?

Honestly, if you are at all aware of SU's recent history of results/success (aka, many of the statistics I lay out above) and you still truely believe that SU will win only 20-22 games this season (and, thus, deviate GREATLY from that recent history of success)...then either you are privy to some shocking information about this year's team that I just do not have...or I greatly question your ability to honestly & objectively evaluate a team's prospect for success in an upcoming season, given the information we know about that team.

We'll see...I hope I'm wrong but I think we'll be at best a 7-10 seed but more likely an 11 or a 12 seed.

BTW, I have no inside info...just my eyeballz watching. We have an unproven Freshman PG and a bunch of complimentary players. I've been watching SU play since the days of Bill Smith, Tom Stundis and Mike Lee.

 

[Cuse'91]

I know it is tempting to think that there is a magic bullet hidden somewhere in the ammo box, but the good players are already playing Deep benchers are deep benchers for a reason.

I'm not talking about our 11th and 12th players on the bench, or walk-ons. We are Syracuse basketball, I realize we don't have the recruiting prowess of teams like Wichita St. and Butler that seem to be able to play 9 without any problems... Our bench players are high school all americans for crying out loud. Do you really think they could not contribute given the game time and their coaches' confidence to leave them in for a few minutes?

 

[bozophobe]

Short answer: You're most likely wrong.

Why? Well, mostly because of this - (from John Gasaway's SU 2013-14 Team Preview) "the program hasn't entered the NCAA tournament seeded lower than No. 4 since the (George W.) Bush administration."

In fact, I'm wondering if you even realize that the kind of season you're predicting (22 or less wins) last happened to SU 7 years ago, when the 07-08 team went 21-14. And that 07-08 team is the only SU team in the last 15 years that finished a season with less than 23 wins. So you're suggesting that the 2014-15 SU team will fail to reach 23 wins for just the second time in the past 16 seasons?

Do you realize this? Do you realize that the last 5 SU teams won an average of 29.8 games per season? So you're suggesting that the 2014-15 SU team will fail to come within 8 wins of their 5 year average?

You really see that much reason to go against multiple data points (SU's recent history of results) that all suggest that Syracuse Basketball, year in & year out, will be a top 25ish team and a top seed in the NCAA Tournament when all is said and done? What are these reasons? Major upheaval in the coaching staff? Have we already suffered major injuries to players who were planned to be integral to the season? Major suspensions?

Honestly, if you are at all aware of SU's recent history of results/success (aka, many of the statistics I lay out above) and you still truely believe that SU will win only 20-22 games this season (and, thus, deviate GREATLY from that recent history of success)...then either you are privy to some shocking information about this year's team that I just do not have...or I greatly question your ability to honestly & objectively evaluate a team's prospect for success in an upcoming season, given the information we know about that team.

I don't know if your perspective is more realistic than his - just at the other extreme of the confidence scale. 22 wins is indeed realistic (and that could include 2 NIT wins before bowing out) at the pessimistic end of the scale. Most folks here are open to a broad range of possibilities because of all the questions. I'm expecting a few more wins than 22, because it seems probable that someone will step up. We have more alpha males now, or at least offensive-minded people. B.J. and Tyler just want to put the damn ball in the hole. One just needs starter's minutes and some time, and the other needs more confidence. Last year's Ennis-led team was borderline perverse, to be honest. Wondering whether either team will get out of the forties.

When you point out the 29.8 5 year average, you have to consider that some years in there were higher, and some lower (you know that, obviously). But you also have to consider unlikely positive events, like the Ennis 40 footer versus Pitt. That shouldn't have gone in. Take out a few other great performances by players who stepped up, as well as just all those downright close games in each of the last 5 years, and you can see that there really isn't much margin for error. And there will be errors. Lots of 'em. But points, too.

The choice of a 5 year span seems arbitrary; even cherry-picked, as well. It implies that the SU program definitively took a step forward somehow at the beginning of that stretch. Maybe they did, and I hope so. But what was it? What will ruin the game for me, though, is if I develop unrealistically high standards instead of rolling around in the glory when it comes.

 

[SoBristol]

...
Why? Well, mostly because of this - (from John Gasaway's SU 2013-14 Team Preview) "the program hasn't entered the NCAA tournament seeded lower than No. 4 since the (George W.) Bush administration."
...

Do you realize this? Do you realize that the last 5 SU teams won an average of 29.8 games per season? So you're suggesting that the 2014-15 SU team will fail to come within 8 wins of their 5 year average?

You really see that much reason to go against multiple data points (SU's recent history of results) that all suggest that Syracuse Basketball, year in & year out, will be a top 25ish team and a top seed in the NCAA Tournament when all is said and done? ...

Pretty orange-colored to believe JB just needs to roll out the ball, do his usual, put SU on the uniforms, and the past 5 years will replicate.
But that 5 years was quite a streak with solid guard play, very high draft choices in the mix every year, a transfer (Wes Johnson) who had already played at a high level and was an immediate revelation, a frosh PG who was known to be a top 15 player but exceeded those expectations. Last season we had 3 players on pre-season all-ACC lists -- this year, not so much.
There is a lot of speculation (positive or not-so) about what this team can do but surprisingly little observation to back it up. I won't set expectations until I see a couple of exhibitions.

 

[realorange]

I'm not talking about our 11th and 12th players on the bench, or walk-ons. We are Syracuse basketball, I realize we don't have the recruiting prowess of teams like Wichita St. and Butler that seem to be able to play 9 without any problems... Our bench players are high school all americans for crying out loud. Do you really think they could not contribute given the game time and their coaches' confidence to leave them in for a few minutes?

Our high school all Americans are competing everyday in practice to get a chance to get into games. JB has said in many ways that if you don't show you are good enough in practice, you aren't going to get to show it in a game. That does not just mean can you put the ball in the basket. It means even more to him whether you can keep the opponent from putting the ball in the basket.

 

[Garbs]

I think we see BJ at the 2 more than the 3, and we see him at 2 before we see Buss at 2.

I read on this board that the staff was/is grooming him for time at the 2 - he just doesn't "feel" like a 3 in our system.

his dad has posted on here numerous times that he practices at both guard and forward

 

[moqui]

I'm not talking about our 11th and 12th players on the bench, or walk-ons. We are Syracuse basketball, I realize we don't have the recruiting prowess of teams like Wichita St. and Butler that seem to be able to play 9 without any problems... Our bench players are high school all americans for crying out loud. Do you really think they could not contribute given the game time and their coaches' confidence to leave them in for a few minutes?

but answer the real world question - who were these mystery players who you believe could have been developed in 2010 or 2012 to prepare for the unforeseen AO & Fab problems? look at the actual rosters and tell us what JB should have done differently in those years.

 

[Garbs]

Pretty orange-colored to believe JB just needs to roll out the ball, do his usual, put SU on the uniforms, and the past 5 years will replicate.
But that 5 years was quite a streak with solid guard play, very high draft choices in the mix every year, a transfer (Wes Johnson) who had already played at a high level and was an immediate revelation, a frosh PG who was known to be a top 15 player but exceeded those expectations. Last season we had 3 players on pre-season all-ACC lists -- this year, not so much.
There is a lot of speculation (positive or not-so) about what this team can do but surprisingly little observation to back it up. I won't set expectations until I see a couple of exhibitions.

who?

 

[Cuse'91]

but answer the real world question - who were these mystery players who you believe could have been developed in 2010 or 2012 to prepare for the unforeseen AO & Fab problems? look at the actual rosters and tell us what JB should have done differently in those years.

I'm 45 years old now, I have trouble remembering what I had for dinner last night...
Last year's team I do remember; no way in hell should G have failed to play significant minutes in so many games, TR didn't get any traction even when Grant was hurt and CJ's drop in confidence made it hard for him to hit the broad side of a barn, all TC was doing was a cardio workout in a lot of games and he was not subbed for...
Point is that if a bench had been developed from day one, we might have had other options toward the end of the season...

 

[SoBristol]

who?

How soon they forget.
CJ Fair was pre-season first team all-ACC; Ennis was pre-season all ACC frosh; Grant was -- I believe -- 3rd team all-ACC pre-season after making a U19 team. And, by this point, we had seen outstanding performances from Ennis in international play for Canada in China plus the four Canadian exhibitions.

I have hopes we will see surprises (positives) in the exhibitions; but we don't know nearly as much about this season's team.

 

[MikeSU02]

but answer the real world question - who were these mystery players who you believe could have been developed in 2010 or 2012 to prepare for the unforeseen AO & Fab problems? look at the actual rosters and tell us what JB should have done differently in those years.

Point of contention - AO may have been unforeseen, but Fab was trouble from the start. Every game he did play should have been considered playing with house money.

 

[CForth51]

I don't think you can plan for injuries or for player suspensions. I think in almost all years JB plays the rotation he has to and can't really and shouldn't go deeper than 7-8. I would argue that last year was the exception. Cooney ran out of gas by the end of the season and our offense was hard to watch at times. Our style of play allowed much weaker teams to stay in games with us (BC, St. Francis, GT, Miami). I really wanted us to force tempo, increase the number of possessions and see increased minutes for bench players - not necessarily extend the rotation to 10 guys. Not sure that would have changed the end result for us (I think it would have) but last years three freshman that didn't get much burn would be more prepared for the load they will carry this year.

 

[RF2044]

I don't think you can plan for injuries or for player suspensions. I think in almost all years JB plays the rotation he has to and can't really and shouldn't go deeper than 7-8. I would argue that last year was the exception. Cooney ran out of gas by the end of the season and our offense was hard to watch at times. Our style of play allowed much weaker teams to stay in games with us (BC, St. Francis, GT, Miami). I really wanted us to force tempo, increase the number of possessions and see increased minutes for bench players - not necessarily extend the rotation to 10 guys. Not sure that would have changed the end result for us (I think it would have) but last years three freshman that didn't get much burn would be more prepared for the load they will carry this year.

On paper, I think we go 8--minimum.


Joseph
Cooney
Roberson
McCullough
Rak

Gbinije's playing--he's 6.
BJ is playing--he's 7.
Obokoh has to play by default--that's 8.

And I wouldn't be surprised to see Ron Patterson get some run this year. I could see his season going either way--he either is out of the rotation / a transfer candidate, or he ends up coming in and providing an offensive spark, and plays every game as a complimentary shooter / scorer.

I know JB doesn't often employ and expanded rotation, but I don't see how we play fewer than 8. Maybe even 9, depending on what Patterson can do.

 

[SoBristol]

I agree with that: 7 for sure, Obokoh by default, and let's see about Patterson.

Good thing exhibitions are around the corner -- because players still have a chance to earn roles and playing time on the court. I expect Gbinije believes he should start ahead of Joseph; BJ believes he should start at SF. Whatever posters believe, let's see who is better.

 

[jordoo]

On paper, I think we go 8--minimum.


Joseph
Cooney
Roberson
McCullough
Rak

Gbinije's playing--he's 6.
BJ is playing--he's 7.
Obokoh has to play by default--that's 8.

And I wouldn't be surprised to see Ron Patterson get some run this year. I could see his season going either way--he either is out of the rotation / a transfer candidate, or he ends up coming in and providing an offensive spark, and plays every game as a complimentary shooter / scorer.

I know JB doesn't often employ and expanded rotation, but I don't see how we play fewer than 8. Maybe even 9, depending on what Patterson can do.

I have basically the same general outlook. The big thing about JB using an expanded rotation is really two fold. He loves to have 1 or 2 guys on the team that can play multiple positions, when we have that and they are in the top 5/6 players its naturally going to make for a shorter bench. The other thing is the drop off in quality of play the deeper you go. If JB can cover all his bases in 7 players (think 09-10) and the 8th player is a considerable drop off in quality of play then that guy isn't going to play meaningful minutes. If the 8th and even 9th guy are providing the same quality of play as the 7th guy then when things aren't working they will get there chance and JB will be more open to using player combinations that work better in specific situations. Its all about the 8th and 9th guys being able to hold up their end of the deal on the court. Sometimes the 6th players is as good as the starters and simple way better than the 7-10 guys. In that case if you have 1 guard who can play both spots, and 1 forward who can play the 2 and 1 forward who can slide to the middle you might see mostly just those 6 guys and it would work if they stayed out of foul trouble. 6 guys playing 33min a game.

 

[jordoo]

I agree with that: 7 for sure, Obokoh by default, and let's see about Patterson.

Good thing exhibitions are around the corner -- because players still have a chance to earn roles and playing time on the court. I expect Gbinije believes he should start ahead of Joseph; BJ believes he should start at SF. Whatever posters believe, let's see who is better.

If Gbinije believes he should start as the PG spot than that bodes very well for us IMO. I think one of his biggest issues last season was being uncomfortable in that role which made him think more than play. If he is confident and comfortable whether he starts at the PG spot or backs it up it will be good to have two PG's.

 

[Garbs]

How soon they forget.
CJ Fair was pre-season first team all-ACC; Ennis was pre-season all ACC frosh; Grant was -- I believe -- 3rd team all-ACC pre-season after making a U19 team. And, by this point, we had seen outstanding performances from Ennis in international play for Canada in China plus the four Canadian exhibitions.

I have hopes we will see surprises (positives) in the exhibitions; but we don't know nearly as much about this season's team.

CJ was the only one that made one of the 4 ACC preseason teams, and making the preseason freshmen team doesn't mean a whole lot when you don't make the other teams

 

[AlaskaSU]

I agree with that: 7 for sure, Obokoh by default, and let's see about Patterson.

Good thing exhibitions are around the corner -- because players still have a chance to earn roles and playing time on the court. I expect Gbinije believes he should start ahead of Joseph; BJ believes he should start at SF. Whatever posters believe, let's see who is better.

Our greater need for BJ is at the 3 but at 6'7" and 185 lbs, how can he match up against bigger stronger players at the 3? He is young for a soph and naturally thin. I like his talent and he showed it in Estonia. Does anyone know what position he played and whether his defender was a good compaarison for what he will see this season? If MG is played at the reserve 1 and 3, BJ could have the back-up 2. In a couple of years I could see BJ at the 3.

 

[OGBJ20]

Our greater need for BJ is at the 3 but at 6'7" and 185 lbs, how can he match up against bigger stronger players at the 3? He is young for a soph and naturally thin. I like his talent and he showed it in Estonia. Does anyone know what position he played and whether his defender was a good compaarison for what he will see this season? If MG is played at the reserve 1 and 3, BJ could have the back-up 2. In a couple of years I could see BJ at the 3.

The team will be fine!SUball

 

[cusetown1]

The team will be fine!SUball
View attachment 27794

We are going to be looooooooong this year.