Does it matter how we win?

[javadoc]

should i answer again?

why do you think NFL teams care about QBs hand size? cold and precipitation make it harder to throw the ball

I mentioned that it is easier to throw and catch the ball in controlled conditions, which I believe. I'm asking about the relative benefits of that versus the benefit to the defense of playing in a controlled environment.

 

[Millhouse]

I mentioned that it is easier to throw and catch the ball in controlled conditions, which I believe. I'm asking about the relative benefits of that versus the benefit to the defense of playing in a controlled environment.

qbs are better in domes in the NFL (yards per attempt). that means that defenses are worse against the pass in domes. that means that dome teams should throw more all else equal. unless you think that defenses really struggle against the run in domes. no reason to think that

your argument that defenses benefit as much is not true in the NFL where there are more data from domes

 

[Chip]

Their attendance declined but I don't think that's determinive. They were coming off a 1-11 year where they didn't score. A perfect storm of apathy. Attendance dipped -3.4%, from 49.3K to 47.7K. But in 2013 they had Ohio State visit which alone makes up for the difference with 2014 (drew 62K).

Will be interesting to see how their attendance goes this season. Their home schedule isn't great (Grambling, SD State, Wazzu, USC, Oregon State, AZ State). I also know ZERO about Cal so I have no idea if their big surge in points is sustainable or a SU-in-2012-like season that was just static electricty in a bottle.

They also had a new coach attendance bump in 2013, that's when they brought in Dykes (ha, I said dykes) from La Tech, the hot offensive name. In only 2 years, he has that offense moving. But in his case, he had to do a lot of fixing on both sides of the ball. No idea if he has a competent DC, but as we agree, the two aren't mutually exclusive.

 

[TheCusian]

you're not elite

Thanks.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I'm going to ask again. I've got to the point where it has been stated that the Dome favors a "fast passing" game because it is easier to throw/catch when it isn't wet or windy, but the ultimate question remains. A controlled environment gives a boost to the defense as well. You are contending that the benefit to the offense outweighs the benefit to the (opposing) defense, or that there is no boost to the defense. I do not see this as a trivially obvious result. Do you have data to back your position?

All of the things that benefit the defense (clear conditions, consistent footing, etc.) also benefit the offense so that's a wash. The offense is benefitted though by the things Millhouse mentioned. Plus, defense is inherently reactive. Offense always has an edge, so improving conditions for both actually just maintains the edge the offense has.

This seems pretty straightforward.

 

[TheCusian]

The strawman has been killed, boys.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

FWIW, Cal is an interesting case study here...

In 2012 they went 3-9, scored 23.0 PPG and gave up 33.1

In 2013 they went 1-11, scored 23.0 PPG and gave up 45.9. Oof.

In 2014 they went 5-7, scored 38.3 PPG and gave up 39.8.

So they dramatically improved their scoring offense, made small gains to their D (although not even as "good" 2 years prior), and picked up 4 more wins.

Worth noting that the vaunted 2012 SU offense that so many are enamored with scored 30.0 PPG and gave up 24.8. Even if you isolate just the last 7 games of that season when things were really clicking, we scored 36.1 PPG.

Man, we SUCK at scoring.

I can't even imagine what it would be like for the scoring to improve by an entire 2 TDs a game.

 

[Scooch]

They also had a new coach attendance bump in 2013, that's when they brought in Dykes (ha, I said dykes) from La Tech, the hot offensive name. In only 2 years, he has that offense moving. But in his case, he had to do a lot of fixing on both sides of the ball. No idea if he has a competent DC, but as we agree, the two aren't mutually exclusive.

Well, I'm sure Cal has probably landed a bunch of top 20 recruiting classes over the past half-dozen years which accounts entirely for their offensive resurgence.

:crazy:

 

[Millhouse]

I can't even imagine what it would be like for the scoring to improve by an entire 2 TDs a game.

they improved only 42 yards per game

they were 97th in scoring and 34th in offense in 2013. 2nd to last in turnover margin. that stuff doesn't persist

this stuff works itself out if you have enough games - in football it might take more than a season's worth of games.

it's like baseball. get on base and the runs come. move the ball and the points come. don't freak out about leaving guys on base or doing stupid stuff against maryland

 

[RMH44]

Thanks.

That's what you get for interrupting their 3-way circle jerk ;-)

 

[Millhouse]

That's what you get for interrupting their 3-way circle jerk ;-)

it's more like a triangle with three of us

 

[GoSU96]

it's also funny to look at teams in the middle or worse on offense trying to find a big winner last year. (spoiler alert: you won't find one)

What constitutes a "big winner"? And what's the middle?

FSU, 38th, 13 wins, Missouri 98th, 11 wins, Clemson 61st, 1o wins, Utah St, 85th, 10 wins, Air Force 55th, 10 wins, Memphis, 49th, 10 wins.

On the flip side Washington State, 7th, 3 wins, Texas Tech, 10th 4 wins, Cal, 13th, 5 wins, WVU, 12th 7 wins.

Last year Duke won 10 game ranked 47th, OU 11 ranked 52rd, Stanford 11 ranked 69th, Rice 10 ranked 70th, USC 10 ranked 74th, Mich St. 13 ranked 81st.

Is there a correlation, of course but the same can be said for top defenses.

Top 20 offenses averaged 9.5 wins, top 20 defenses 8.8.

 

[TheCusian]

That's what you get for interrupting their 3-way circle jerk ;-)

And here I thought it was just ego stroking...

 

[GoSU96]

They also had a new coach attendance bump in 2013, that's when they brought in Dykes (ha, I said dykes) from La Tech, the hot offensive name. In only 2 years, he has that offense moving. But in his case, he had to do a lot of fixing on both sides of the ball. No idea if he has a competent DC, but as we agree, the two aren't mutually exclusive.

The four years prior to him coming in Cal won 8, 5,7, and 3 games, had the 49th, 90th, 44th, 68th ranked offense, and 72nd, 18th, 25th, and 95th ranked defense.

His two years, 1 and 5 wins. 34th and 13th offense, 124th ranked defense both years.

Sure he has the offense moving, but now has one of the worst defenses and has 6 wins in two years.

It isn't like he took over a total dumpster fire.

Point of reference Washington St had the 7th offense and 3 wins in Leach's third year.

 

[GoSU96]

Since 2003 there have been 260 seasons of 10 wins or more.

The average offensive ranking is 32.3, defense 33.8.

5 teams finished with 14 wins, 14.8 ave on offense, 19.6 on defense
21 finished with 13 wins, 21.5 on offense, 21.3 on defense.
47 finished with 12 wins 17.4 on offense, 32.7 on defense
84 finished with 11 wins 36.4 on offense, 27 on defense
103 finished with 10 wins 38.7 on offense, 42.9 on defense.

65 of those teams finished 50th or lower on offense.

 

[Crusty]

DOME DOME DOME

When he figure this out sports historians are going to look back on us and wonder what we were doing.

*** it, that's what.

Actually, I believe it is Dome duh Dome Dome - Dome.

 

[Millhouse]

What constitutes a "big winner"? And what's the middle?

FSU, 38th, 13 wins, Missouri 98th, 11 wins, Clemson 61st, 1o wins, Utah St, 85th, 10 wins, Air Force 55th, 10 wins, Memphis, 49th, 10 wins.

On the flip side Washington State, 7th, 3 wins, Texas Tech, 10th 4 wins, Cal, 13th, 5 wins, WVU, 12th 7 wins.

Last year Duke won 10 game ranked 47th, OU 11 ranked 52rd, Stanford 11 ranked 69th, Rice 10 ranked 70th, USC 10 ranked 74th, Mich St. 13 ranked 81st.

Is there a correlation, of course but the same can be said for top defenses.

Top 20 offenses averaged 9.5 wins, top 20 defenses 8.8.

utah st, air force, and memphis?

average offensive and defensive YPG rankings of the top 25 in college football reference simple rating system (SRS) last year

O = 32, D = 41

top 10 average O = 18, D = 41

generally, it's better to be good at offense than defense.

14 of the top 25 teams were better on offense than defense. 1 team in the top 25 SRS ranked in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive YPG (michigan State)

 

[Millhouse]

Since 2003 there have been 260 seasons of 10 wins or more.

The average offensive ranking is 32.3, defense 33.8.

5 teams finished with 14 wins, 14.8 ave on offense, 19.6 on defense
21 finished with 13 wins, 21.5 on offense, 21.3 on defense.
47 finished with 12 wins 17.4 on offense, 32.7 on defense
84 finished with 11 wins 36.4 on offense, 27 on defense
103 finished with 10 wins 38.7 on offense, 42.9 on defense.

65 of those teams finished 50th or lower on offense.

i wonder i there is a trend over time. my guess is that teams like oregon and ohio state wouldn't have been in a title game back in 2003 - those defenses were pretty stout back then

 

[javadoc]

All of the things that benefit the defense (clear conditions, consistent footing, etc.) also benefit the offense so that's a wash. The offense is benefitted though by the things Millhouse mentioned. Plus, defense is inherently reactive. Offense always has an edge, so improving conditions for both actually just maintains the edge the offense has.

This seems pretty straightforward.

Therein lies the problem - it's not. A lot of coaches think that punting in certain situations is straightforward. We see data cited here to analyze punting decisions, where it cuts against the "gut feeling" that most coaches seem to have. Absent that data, what do you really know about the total analysis?

You said, "All of the things that benefit the defense ... also benefit the offense so that's a wash." That is not straightforward. It may very well benefit one more than the other. It may benefit one style of offense, or defense, more than others.

Imagine a DB covering a receiver. The receiver knows which way he is going to run and when he will cut or fake. The DB needs to be ready to react, regardless of which way his body is moving, so footing seems more important to him than to the WR, IMO. The WR might slip, but it's easier for him to prepare his body for the cut he wants to make, because he knows when he will do it. Thus, it seems to me that DB's benefit more from controlled conditions than WR's do. I don't have numbers to back that up, but it seems plausible.

How much would an option-based run offense benefit from controlled conditions, versus running on a rainy or icy field?

I would agree with the generic statement that "everyone plays better" in a controlled environment. Who gets the most marginal increase in performance? That is not a question with a simple and obvious answer, IMO.

 

[GoSU96]

utah st, air force, and memphis?

average offensive and defensive YPG rankings of the top 25 in college football reference simple rating system (SRS) last year

O = 32, D = 41

top 10 average O = 18, D = 41

generally, it's better to be good at offense than defense.

14 of the top 25 teams were better on offense than defense. 1 team in the top 25 SRS ranked in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive YPG (michigan State)

You said you couldn't find one, I found a couple.

Unless you are extraordinary at one or the other, you have to be good at both. You can win a lot with a top 5 offense, you can win a lot with a top 5 defense.

If you can be between 30 and 40 on both sides you will much more often than not win 9, 10, 11 games.

That is not an unrealistic goal here. The defense has done that consistently the last six years, and the offense managed to break through once, so it's far from unachievable.

 

[CuseOnly]

Style doesn't matter if you win A LOT. Take, JB's hoops teams for example, there are lots of people who would prefer we not play a 2-3 zone, but when you're winning 25+ games and going to conference tournament finals and Sweet 16s, it's hard to argue about aesthetics.

So if our football team played a low-scoring, boring offensive style, but had a great D/ST and won 9+ every year with the occassional trip to the ACC CG and top 15 national finishes, I think that'd be fine.

The problem is that playing that style and going 7-5 doesn't excite anyone. If our ceiling is 8 wins we might as well do it by playing exciting, high-scoring football.

Every time we try to install exciting football, we fail. Unless we are hiring Chip Kelly, Helfrich, Briles, Malzahn or some such offensive guru we should just table this "exciting" offensive football talk.

Furthermore, without a big name HC or OC like the above, we have also not shown the ability to recruit the athletes it takes to execute "exciting" offensive football. Even the Crack Recruiter McF*** It that got Minnesota to a ranked class in the past couldn't do it here.

Talking about "sizzle" is fine, executing is a completely, totally different animal altogether.

I would prefer just to win and our Defensive style of play is always exciting. There's your "sizzle".

To answer Crusty's question, it makes no difference whatsoever what scheme we play to me as long as that play is mean, nasty and more importantly winning football.

 

[Millhouse]

You said you couldn't find one, I found a couple.

Unless you are extraordinary at one or the other, you have to be good at both. You can win a lot with a top 5 offense, you can win a lot with a top 5 defense.

If you can be between 30 and 40 on both sides you will much more often than not win 9, 10, 11 games.

That is not an unrealistic goal here. The defense has done that consistently the last six years, and the offense managed to break through once, so it's far from unachievable.

i missed missouri, you're right about them

i have a tough time imagining shafer getting to 440 yards of offense per game

the one year we had the offense up there, the defense was 47th. close enough but worth noting

Here's the list of teams where were 40 or better on both sides of the ball last year. That's a tall task

Marshall
TCU
East Carolina
Ohio State
Michigan State
Alabama
Wisconsin
Appalachian State
Georgia

of teams in real conferences TCU is the only non factory . How did they do it? aiiiiiiiiiiir raaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaid

i think it's really hard to be good at both. ohio state, spread to run, wisconsin giant farmers, bama factory, georgia factory. lester and shafer probably want to be michigan state though with more TE

 

[javadoc]

i missed missouri, you're right about them

i have a tough time imagining shafer getting to 440 yards of offense per game

the one year we had the offense up there, the defense was 47th. close enough but worth noting

Here's the list of teams where were 40 or better on both sides of the ball last year. That's a tall task

Marshall
TCU
East Carolina
Ohio State
Michigan State
Alabama
Wisconsin
Appalachian State
Georgia

TCU is the only non factory in a big conference. How did they do it? aiiiiiiiiiiir raaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaid

TCU is probably the datum that most intrigues me, and they are the team I would most like to see our staff visit this offseason. Please, no NFL teams.

 

[Millhouse]

TCU is probably the datum that most intrigues me, and they are the team I would most like to see our staff visit this offseason. Please, no NFL teams.

do we need to visit them? we know what they did. hire air raid coordinators and leave them alone

 

[GoSU96]

i missed missouri, you're right about them

i have a tough time imagining shafer getting to 440 yards of offense per game

the one year we had the offense up there, the defense was 47th. close enough but worth noting

Here's the list of teams where were 40 or better on both sides of the ball last year. That's a tall task

Marshall
TCU
East Carolina
Ohio State
Michigan State
Alabama
Wisconsin
Appalachian State
Georgia

of teams in real conferences TCU is the only non factory . How did they do it? aiiiiiiiiiiir raaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaid

i think it's really hard to be good at both. ohio state, spread to run, wisconsin giant farmers, bama factory, georgia factory. lester and shafer probably want to be michigan state though with more TE

Between 2003 and 2011 TCU managed to be top 40 in both 7 out of 9 seasons.

How did they do it then?