Don't freakout and this isn't hate speech

[GoSU96]

Without looking up stats one thing I think we have been better at than the past is RZ efficiency, specifically scoring TD's. Wonder if that's a factor that favors this team?


And wow that 2012 team was good. We should have had 10 wins. Can almost say we underachieved. And Pugh didn't even play the whole year.

Agree, should have had ten wins, at least.

 

[RF2044]

I get what you're saying. Football is a game of small sample sizes though. Hard to draw any real conclusions, but you've got to start somewhere.

I'm content to leave it at there's still a lot of work to do. We might be lucky that the teams on our schedule aren't inclined to attack the weakness of our defense. We do need to run more plays though I think. I get why we've been conservative, and the big plays on offense are a welcome change. If we're looking to play ball control though we could benefit from having more TOP, and it's hard to get that without more plays. I don't think the big plays are accounting for all of the imbalance in TOP.

Here's a lens to view that data through: Eric Dungey has only started 4 of the 8 halves of football we've played. LSU outcome aside, that has clearly had an impact on our yardage, scores, and TOP.

More Dungey = more offensive production. That's why the predictive validity of the data is low in this case.

 

[Chip]

Bunch of ears in the fingers, na, na, na, na, here. I didn't say it wouldn't improve. But if it stays where it is it doesn't bode well. That's all this is about. It's important because Millhouse is right, it's predictive. Since 2009 157 have a combined rank value of between 150 and 199. The win totals for those 157 teams are: 1 - 10 win team, 1 - 9 win team, 7 - 8 win teams, 12 - 7 win teams, 18 - 6 win teams, and 118 - with 5 wins or less. That's why it's a concern.

I just don't get how you could use the first 4 games of this season for any type of predictive analysis for the remaining 8. Isn't losing your QB less than 20 minutes into a game 50% of the time some kind of outrageous outlier?

I have a lot of concerns about this team going forward, both on offense (although I'm encouraged) and defense (although I think our style works more often than not).

I don't think you're trying to be negative, I just think it's a fairly useless indicator. Next 2 games should give much better data.

 

[RF2044]

Just stop. I said it's a concern, I didn't say the sky is falling.

I didn't say where they are now is fixed in stone. But it is where they are. I even acknowledged the factors that are driving it to an extent.

And if they are in the same place at the end of the year the outlier would be a winning season.

Don't get your panties in a bunch. You're the one ringing the alarm bell, while simultaneously failing to take into account the context of why the data is where it is, and then calling others out for not sharing your chicken little interpretive viewpoint.

By the end of the year, this thread is going to look as off-target as the PS "journo's" preseason predictions. Book it. The offense is fine, and the numbers will continue to improve provided Dungey stays healthy.

 

[OrangeTarheel]

Data reflects the players and coaching we had at the time. I think there is excitement this year because we are finally seeing the benefit of good players and strong coaching in tandem. If so, the data will follow.

After working a bit with multi variate analysis I like to think of it as predicting the past. Only useful if you think you will be reliving it.

 

[TheCusian]

Bunch of ears in the fingers, na, na, na, na, here. I didn't say it wouldn't improve. But if it stays where it is it doesn't bode well. That's all this is about. It's important because Millhouse is right, it's predictive. Since 2009 157 have a combined rank value of between 150 and 199. The win totals for those 157 teams are: 1 - 10 win team, 1 - 9 win team, 7 - 8 win teams, 12 - 7 win teams, 18 - 6 win teams, and 118 - with 5 wins or less. That's why it's a concern.

It's really not. You're the one dismissing the context.

The reason people are excited is because our stats look this way and we haven't seen our offense running near optimally. And you can see glimpses of what that looks like in a few quarters or halves with Dungey.

I'm all for stats, but they help tell the story - they are never the whole story.

 

[TheCusian]

Just stop. I said it's a concern, I didn't say the sky is falling. I didn't say where they are now is fixed in stone. But it is where they are. I even acknowledged the factors that are driving it to an extent. And if they are in the same place at the end of the year the outlier would be a winning season.

You should be encouraged by those numbers. Compare them to the back half of last season when Hunt went down - that's where you'll find the proper context.

 

[AZOrange]

I think this is where data can sometimes fail compared to what we see. I've been as pessimistic as anyone over the last few years and for the first time in a long time i see playmakers again, a qb with loads of potential, a pretty stout front seven. Honestly the back 4 on the d is probably my biggest worry right now.

 

[Millhouse]

Just stop. I said it's a concern, I didn't say the sky is falling.

I didn't say where they are now is fixed in stone. But it is where they are. I even acknowledged the factors that are driving it to an extent.

And if they are in the same place at the end of the year the outlier would be a winning season.

all of RF's gibberish was a fancy way of saying our best QB missed time and we've only played 4 games. it's quite a newsflash.

it actually is news how few yards they've actually gotten. even the LSU game was Gergian in yards. it's easy to forget because they capitalized on their few opportunities (except the doinked FG) it's the opposite of last year where they had so many yards and so few points. i'm thrilled to be middle of the pack in yards per play though.

 

[RoatanCuse]

back when Floyd Little was at his best for us, I recall a number of games where our point production was up and so was rushing yardage. But we sucked at TOP and 1st downs. Not saying that was bad, just that a quick strike offense can skew stats. Looks like Fournette may be doing the same thing for LSU.

 

[Millhouse]

I just don't get how you could use the first 4 games of this season for any type of predictive analysis for the remaining 8. Isn't losing your QB less than 20 minutes into a game 50% of the time some kind of outrageous outlier?

I have a lot of concerns about this team going forward, both on offense (although I'm encouraged) and defense (although I think our style works more often than not).

I don't think you're trying to be negative, I just think it's a fairly useless indicator. Next 2 games should give much better data.

we've only played 4 games. you make do with what you have and recognize that there might be more errors. I think that's what go did

 

[Millhouse]

Don't get your panties in a bunch. You're the one ringing the alarm bell, while simultaneously failing to take into account the context of why the data is where it is, and then calling others out for not sharing your chicken little interpretive viewpoint.

By the end of the year, this thread is going to look as off-target as the PS "journo's" preseason predictions. Book it. The offense is fine, and the numbers will continue to improve provided Dungey stays healthy.

the first post was hardly alarmed. it's right there in the title. your responses are exactly what he tried to defuse right from the get go

 

[GoSU96]

The break point is about 125 for the combined rank value of total offensive yards and total defensive yards.

There have been 728 cumulative seasons played from 2009 through 2014 in D1.

322 teams have ended the year with a combined rank of 125 and above.

The distribution is

10 or more wins - 4 teams,
9 wins - 1o teams,
8 wins - 27 teams,
7 wins - 34 teams,
6 wins - 31 teams,
5 or less - 226 teams.

For 396 teams with a combined rank of 125 and below,

10 or more wins - 143 teams,
9 wins - 56 teams,
8 wins - 76 teams,
7 wins - 54 teams,
6 wins - 26 teams,
5 or less - 41 teams

 

[RF2044]

all of RF's gibberish was a fancy way of saying our best QB missed time and we've only played 4 games. it's quite a newsflash.

it actually is news how few yards they've actually gotten. even the LSU game was Gergian in yards. it's easy to forget because they capitalized on their few opportunities (except the doinked FG) it's the opposite of last year where they had so many yards and so few points. i'm thrilled to be middle of the pack in yards per play though.

Focusing on the lack of yards / scoring misses the forest through the trees about how good our offense can / will be this year.

The relatively conservative yardage we racked up against RI [with a true frosh manning the helm for 3/4 of the game] contributes to the data.

Dungey missing the second half of a game we were wracking up a ton of yardage in the first half / scoring at a high paced clip is another factor.

So is Mahoney having a generally awful first half against LSU.

Anyone who doesn't think this won't get turned around with a healthy Dungey and a return of key playmakers like Philips is barking up the wrong tree. I'm willing to bet that the data bears that out after the next 1/3 of the season. :noidea:

 

[RF2044]

the first post was hardly alarmed. it's right there in the title. your responses are exactly what he tried to defuse right from the get go

By saying there are a lot of posters with a "...Bunch of ears in the fingers, na, na, na, na, here?" Okay, moneyball.

And sadly, you are one of the few posters on this forum who can construct a reasonable statistical analysis.

Chip was right.

 

[GoSU96]

I just don't get how you could use the first 4 games of this season for any type of predictive analysis for the remaining 8. Isn't losing your QB less than 20 minutes into a game 50% of the time some kind of outrageous outlier?

I have a lot of concerns about this team going forward, both on offense (although I'm encouraged) and defense (although I think our style works more often than not).

I don't think you're trying to be negative, I just think it's a fairly useless indicator. Next 2 games should give much better data.

Where did I say I was predicting the end state?

All I said is if they want to have a winning season it's going to be really difficult if they stay where they are statistically based on history.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Here's a lens to view that data through: Eric Dungey has only started 4 of the 8 halves of football we've played. LSU outcome aside, that has clearly had an impact on our yardage, scores, and TOP.

More Dungey = more offensive production. That's why the predictive validity of the data is low in this case.

I'm not disagreeing with that. There isn't much in the way of predictive validity that more Dungey = more offensive production. The small sample size argument cuts both ways. The eye test says with Dungey the offense is a lot better.

The program is in great position to seize the moment and really solidify its standing in college football. Just about everything they needed to do to be in this position was accomplished, even if the path there was unexpected. They have to do it though. There are reasons to believe they will. There are a couple of pot holes to avoid, we just have to trust they will.

 

[RF2044]

Where did I say I was predicting the end state?

All I said is if they want to have a winning season it's going to be really difficult if they stay where they are statistically based history.

That's fair / reasonable. I'm curious to hear your prediction about how the rest of the season will go, given what you've seen offensively so far?

 

[Millhouse]

Where did I say I was predicting the end state?

All I said is if they want to have a winning season it's going to be really difficult if they stay where they are statistically based history.

it's unlikely that they stay so great at finishing drives inside the 40. they're going to need a lot more of them to get to 6. i think they might have that big improvement but they need to get better. (i think being smarter on 4th downs can make a big difference in having more longer drives)

 

[RF2044]

I'm not disagreeing with that. There isn't much in the way of predictive validity that more Dungey = more offensive production. The small sample size argument cuts both ways. The eye test says with Dungey the offense is a lot better.

The program is in great position to seize the moment and really solidify its standing in college football. Just about everything they needed to do to be in this position was accomplished, even if the path there was unexpected. They have to do it though. There are reasons to believe they will. There are a couple of pot holes to avoid, we just have to trust they will.

Agreed. Now, we have to do it.

 

[LAOrange]

None of those teams were as young as this years teams in key spots. Most of our key guys seem to be sophomore and freshmen. Their ceiling is high, and will improve throughout the year. The biggest of those is Eric "Spongey" Dungey. (you know, cause his brain is a sponge...). I feel like his ceiling is insanely high, and we are just scratching the surface with his potential.

I hope nobody absorbs that nickname.

 

[RF2044]

it's unlikely that they stay so great at finishing drives inside the 40. they're going to need a lot more of them to get to 6. i think they might have that big improvement but they need to get better. (i think being smarter on 4th downs can make a big difference in having more longer drives)

I fully expect Dungey to have some ups and downs [see: the WF game, which was a tale of two halves]. But his throwing is different than what we've seen in a LONG time. Kid throws frozen ropes, even when he's on the move. This offense has a different upper threshold than what we've been subjected to for the last 16 years, and I love the playmakers that are emerging on offense [also different than what we've grown accustomed to the last 16 years].

 

[Millhouse]

I fully expect Dungey to have some ups and downs [see: the WF game, which was a tale of two halves]. But his throwing is different than what we've seen in a LONG time. Kid throws frozen ropes, even when he's on the move. This offense has a different upper threshold than what we've been subjected to for the last 16 years, and I love the playmakers that are emerging on offense [also different than what we've grown accustomed to the last 16 years].

i'm all in on dungey. i think some of ottogrobto comparisons to long against fsu are off base, long was ok against FSU but dungey's numbers are amazing

 

[RF2044]

i'm all in on dungey. i think some of ottogrobto comparisons to long against fsu are off base, long was ok against FSU but dungey's numbers are amazing

My dad was in Minneapolis the week of the CMU game. Like everybody, we white knuckled that game outcame, and were thankful as hell that we found a way to pull it out [thanks, Mahoney!].

But when we watched the replay [and the WF second half], some of the plays Dungey made were truly impressive. I'm not just talking about the long TDs. Kid made great decisions, he led receivers on long throws perfectly, and consistently shows that he has tremendous touch. Every throw is a tight spiral--no exaggeration. Whatever "it" is, this kid has "it."

If you want to call that gibberish, fine. But I honestly believe that even with the growing pains we should reasonably expect from a true frosh that our offensive potential this year is higher than any team other than 2012. And that before long, Dungey will be perceived as a more effective college QB than Nassib 2012 [no knock against Nassib, who statistically was "average" in many respects that year].

That we can struggle in games, and still score 30+ -- or damn close to it in some games where long stretches have not gone our way due to injuries -- says a lot. After all of the offensive futility of the last 16 years, it is a welcome change.

We really, really, really, really need this kid to say healthy this year. If he does, we're going to score a lot of points in the 50/50 games on the back end of the schedule.

 

[LAOrange]

And sadly, you are one of the few posters on this forum who can construct a reasonable statistical analysis.

The only statistic I care about is 3-1. There are just too many factors that can skew results. BC ran up the score on some hapless FCS team 76-0. I'm sure that will reflect well in their stats but won't mean jack when they play without their starting backfield next week. It's often said whoever has the most turnovers loses. Not always. It depends on when they happen. We have two guys, Estime and Ishmael, in the top 20 in yards in the ACC. Almost all of the guys ahead of them have twice as many receptions and are from teams other than Clemson and FSU. Even time of possession can mean that one team scores easily while the other team struggles. We're 3-1 and I believe we'll be 6 - 1 when we play FSU because USF is USF; UVA's coach has been pooping the bed, and Pitt will be played at home and Pitt has significant injuries. None of those have anything to do with stats.