Don't freakout and this isn't hate speech

[SWC75]

People who don't understand quantitative analysis should refrain from using data to sound the alarm.

Especially when they fail to account for contextual factors that put outlier data in context within a limited data subset.

Well, yeah. Sure. Anyone can see that.

 

[GoSU96]

i'm all in on dungey. i think some of ottogrobto comparisons to long against fsu are off base, long was ok against FSU but dungey's numbers are amazing

It's not even close between the two. He has a 204 rating, which would be 3rd in the country if he had enough attempts.

That just isn't likely to hold.

What is sustainable is running more plays, completing a higher percentage of passes, improving on 3rd down.

That's repeatable.

I love the misdirection, the use of formations and motions to get kids in space, the imagination in the offense. They are doing a great job in breaking big plays.

It's a great watch.

 

[RF2044]

It's not even close between the two. He has a 204 rating, which would be 3rd in the country if he had enough attempts.

That just isn't likely to hold.

What is sustainable is running more plays, completing a higher percentage of passes, improving on 3rd down.

That's repeatable.

I love the misdirection, the use of formations and motions to get kids in space, the imagination in the offense. They are doing a great job in breaking big plays.

It's a great watch.

Great post.

 

[SWC75]

Agreed. Now, we have to do it.

 

[SUFan44]

Not only is it noteworthy having the QB go out so often, but also how that effected play calling.

I think the first half vs. CMU was the first time you saw what the playcalling could be with someone who is competent at QB leading the charge, and with the handcuffs taken off. Outside of maybe Hunt vs. URI. The Wake game I thought the play calling was very conservative to ease Dungey into his first start (understandable, and debatable).

We had 17 points, drives of 78, 66 and 80 with 9:20 left in the 2nd quarter. 225 yards total offense to that point (1 yard in first series). Extrapolate that and you have 653 yards total offense - yes, highly unlikely, but that was the pace.

Michigan State (the #2 team in the country, mind you) had 324 yards total offense against the same team for four quarters. You have to figure we probably outdo that number with Dungey over the next 39+ minutes.

Additionally, in the second half vs. Wake when they took the reigns off a little bit again, we had 259 yards total offense (buoyed by the 89 yard pass, but it happened). Extrapolate that and you have over 500 yards.

Stats are stats but there are a lot of factors to consider. Again, not saying you are hitting the panic alarm, but just another angle to look at.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

i'm all in on dungey. i think some of ottogrobto comparisons to long against fsu are off base, long was ok against FSU but dungey's numbers are amazing

I was comparing Long vs FSU to Mahoney vs LSU, actually.

 

[Rocco]

Not worried about this stuff. We've played 4 qbs this year and not by choice. Shouldn't that carry some sort of weighting? How many other teams can say that? If Dungey plays every snap since Hunt went down, our numbers would certainly be way better and likely the D wouldn't have been so exposed and run down. Once Dungey, Erv and a healthy O Line are back, this offense will click. I'm very confident of that.

If anything, I'm most worried about our secondary. I feel like they will continue to be exposed all year. Really missing Blair and what his potential impact could've been. Hopefully Eric Burrell is also paying attention. There are glaring issues to be improved on and I know most of it is inexperience.

So far, Lester's system is really fun to watch and I'd argue we still haven't seen more than 70% of it. We know what the main concepts are, but he is a creative dude with personnel, misdirection, option and playaction. Will keep DC's guessing...

 

[bcubs9497]

A question; do we have the same set of players in 2009 that we do this year? Does any team?

 

[OrangeViking]

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Mark Twain

 

[cuse309]

Just stop. I said it's a concern, I didn't say the sky is falling.

I didn't say where they are now is fixed in stone. But it is where they are. I even acknowledged the factors that are driving it to an extent.

And if they are in the same place at the end of the year the outlier would be a winning season.

And if the political polls stay the same, Trump will be president.

 

[GoSU96]

I'd like to know what goes into calculating TOR, TDR, and TCR. What's being weighted, and by what factors, etc?

At the end of it all, it's not yards, pass completions, etc, but the final score.

All this shows is the ranking for total offensive yards, total defensive yards and combining them into single value.

 

[Millhouse]

I was comparing Long vs FSU to Mahoney vs LSU, actually.

I think long is better. Happy for Mahoney that he so many highlights

 

[Fjoinkay]

Against CMU the SU offense had 285 yards in the first half.

 

[Chip]

we've only played 4 games. you make do with what you have and recognize that there might be more errors. I think that's what go did

Yeah I get it. I just think it's a useless exercise. Having stats and saying it's usually predictive (as he did but then said he didn't) is a waste of time for the SU offense so far.

The next 2 games should be a much smaller, yet more useful sample set.

I love all the stats you guys post. I'm not trying to on them. It's just such unusual context.

 

[Fjoinkay]

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Mark Twain

The first time I read this quote was at SU while being taught critical thinking skills in a freshman writing class. Twain baby!

 

[TheCusian]

Don't freak out but our starting QB has 1 INT and NO TD's.

 

[Millhouse]

we are 2-1 against FBS with 326 ypg on offense and 455 ypg on defense. that is very unusual.

since 2000, teams that give up between 450 and 460 and gain between 320 and 330 in individual games have 4 wins and 13 losses. (not a great comparison because I'm comparing SU averages to individual games, best i can do quick)

what kind of ypg on offense and defense gets us to 3 and 5 the rest of the way? 4-4 is pretty easy to figure out, you need to be about equal in the long run to be .500 (8 games isn't the long run I know). I think for 3-5 you need to get to a 20 or 30 yard difference. not a 130 yard difference. they might get there.

everyone expects the YPG to up on offense. i'm not so sure about defense. might go down a little but i think there will be some big yardage games against our defense that keeps that pretty high

looking at the yards might help us back into what kind of improvement we need. no one expects these first 3 games to be representative. we all expect the offense to do better with dungey, of course.

it's a lot of ground to make up with this secondary. we need dungey to be really good and we need opposing coaches to be really stupid by not throwing a lot more than normal. both are quite possible

 

[Millhouse]

Yeah I get it. I just think it's a useless exercise. Having stats and saying it's usually predictive (as he did but then said he didn't) is a waste of time for the SU offense so far.

The next 2 games should be a much smaller, yet more useful sample set.

I love all the stats you guys post. I'm not trying to on them. It's just such unusual context.

don't want to speak for him but if their yardage numbers stay where they are, it predicts a bad record

there are lots of reasons to think it won't stay the same (he brought these up from the start). the point is that it has to improve to end up with a good record. not that the first 4 games predict that they won't improve

 

[TheCusian]

don't want to speak for him but if their yardage numbers stay where they are, it predicts a bad record there are lots of reasons to think it won't stay the same (he brought these up from the start). the point is that it has to improve to end up with a good record. not that the first 4 games predict that they won't improve

Stats with no context: dooooom
Stats with proper context: things are looking up

 

[Millhouse]

Stats with no context: dooooom
Stats with proper context: things are looking up

on offense maybe. i think this idea of "hey we try to kill the qb and sometimes that means young DBs get beat" shows a level headed lack of panic. i just happen to think that panic is actually the right response here.

 

[TheCusian]

on offense maybe. i think this idea of "hey we try to kill the qb and sometimes that means young DBs get beat" shows a level headed lack of panic. i just happen to think that panic is actually the right response here.

Yeah - agree. I was thinking offense mostly.

I think it's far more likely that our offense takes off than our pass defense improving by a ton.

Though I do think it will be better:

- young players get better with more reps
- almost half the teams we have left have passing deficiencies (i.e. Crappy or low end QB play or line play or both)

 

[Millhouse]

Yeah - agree. I was thinking offense mostly.

I think it's far more likely that our offense takes off than our pass defense improving by a ton.

Though I do think it will be better:

- young players get better with more reps
- almost half the teams we have left have passing deficiencies (i.e. Crappy or low end QB play or line play or both)

if i had to bet, i think they get to 3-5. but i don't feel great about it.

 

[CIL]

I'm going to toss this analysis out the window, to be honest. Quarterback roulette has really impeded this offense's full capability, IMO. Dungey has played roughly 8 quarters of football. That's roughly half of our games thus far. In those drives he has quarterbacked, Syracuse has roughly 950 yards of total offense, which translates to 475 yards a game. That would put us roughly 30th in the country. It's really hard to put up yards when you are rolling out a 5th string QB who has limited reps at best. The playbook gets significantly scaled down because of it.

I think this year is unlike any we have had in a long time because we have so many young and first time starters on both sides of the ball. I know all teams in theory should improve as the year goes on due to more repetitions in both practice and games, however, younger players significantly benefit from them as they acclimate to both the complexity and speed of the college game. Barring significant injuries, I think we see improvement statistically on both sides of the ball.

BTW -- we have improved to 5.7 yards per play this season, up from 4.8 in 2014. I don't have time to do the Dungey per play, but I have a feeling it is closer to 6.5, which is top 25.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I think long is better. Happy for Mahoney that he so many highlights

I agree.

 

[Millhouse]

I'm going to toss this analysis out the window, to be honest. Quarterback roulette has really impeded this offense's full capability, IMO. Dungey has played roughly 8 quarters of football. That's roughly half of our games thus far. In those drives he has quarterbacked, Syracuse has roughly 950 yards of total offense, which translates to 475 yards a game. That would put us roughly 30th in the country. It's really hard to put up yards when you are rolling out a 5th string QB who has limited reps at best. The playbook gets significantly scaled down because of it.

I think this year is unlike any we have had in a long time because we have so many young and first time starters on both sides of the ball. I know all teams in theory should improve as the year goes on due to more repetitions in both practice and games, however, younger players significantly benefit from them as they acclimate to both the complexity and speed of the college game. Barring significant injuries, I think we see improvement statistically on both sides of the ball.

BTW -- we have improved to 5.7 yards per play this season, up from 4.8 in 2014. I don't have time to do the Dungey per play, but I have a feeling it is closer to 6.5, which is top 25.

84th in defensive yards per play vs fbs. if they create enough havoc to have penalties (edit i meant to say turnovers), fine, but that can be get out of jail free wishful thinking