Everyone who thinks or thought Jerami Grant should have stayed>>>>>

[HOFCeluck]

Yeah...All the PUB CJ Fair got in that game vs Duke last year. Top story on ESPN.

He's playing where now?

NBA scouts can't find you unless you're plastered ask over ESPN.com or playing on Big Monday every week. Everyone knows this.

 

[DoctorBombay]

This is at the very least equally amusing as the posts from the 'he should have stayed' crowd.

First of all, just so we're clear, Jeremi Grant and any other SU athlete, for that matter, is never going to an 8:30 a.m. class. Whether or not they are going to class at all is debatable but, they are definitely not going to 8:30 a.m. classes.

Secondly, no one is 'walking away' from anything. What you are trying to do is make a smart decision about your career. So the simple analogy is this -- if you're starting a career after college and you have a chance at an unpaid or low-paid internship at a big, well-established company and you have an offer from a smaller company doing essentially the same thing but as a full-time employee, albeit for far less starting salary than you might potentially get after the internship, what do you do?

That's a very real example. Do you take an unpaid internship with the Washington Post and hope those connections serve you well or do you start working at the Annapolis Capital and hope someone notices your writing while you're also getting paid and gaining experience? It's a really tough answer.

For a kid like Grant, the question isn't walking away from 'millions' of dollars, it's making the right decision between devloping and getting paid. I hope very much that it works out well for him and I wish him no ill will, but it's still hard for me to believe that he couldn't have been drafted much higher and probably gotten a phenomenal second contract (where the real money is) by working hard over the summer and coming back to college for a year.

And, lastly, athletes 'walk away' from tens of millions of dollars ALL THE TIME. Granted, they are already being paid, but Max Scherzer 'walked away' from 6/$144M. Why? Because there's a pretty good chance he ends up with more (which he did ... a lot more). Furthermore, the worst things athletes do for themselves, at times, is sign extensions and contracts for 'long-term insurance' -- essentially what you are suggesting Grant do (forgo any potential future value for the first 7-figure deal that potentially comes up). Longoria and Moore on the Rays, for example, are on absolutely atrocious deals for each of them. Are they going to be fine? Sure, but they passed up probably close to $100M each with the deals they signed. Longoria will never make $20M during the length of his contract (which, it should be pointed out, is also in Tampa which just got even sadder with the departures of Maddon, Zobrist, Friedman, Myers, etc.). That is insane.

Anyway, point is, if you want to argue Grant made the right decision, there are points to be made. But suggesting that returning to school is absurd simply b/c there is $850K/year on the table for two years is asinine.

I won't add to other posters replies to this other than to say that I had PLENTY of 8:30 classes at SU & they were filled w/ athletes from every varsity sport. It's a bit cynical to suggest that they are exempt from all normal scholastic obligations in their entirety, with no proof other than conjecture.
Also, I am ABSOLUTELY suggesting that it's absurd to turn down $850k, in your chosen profession, risking injury, and playing for free- as opposed to getting on-the-job training & fulfilling a life-long dream. Since when is $850k over 2 years considered chump change? That's VERY good money and theres not an SU grad alive who'd turn that down if some company offered it...so why should Jerami? He felt it was worth the risk, and made the jump. Again, a no-brainer. JMHO

 

[moqui]

By that logic every player should leave after his freshman year no matter what.

I happen to believe that anyone who can make a living playing basketball - anywhere in the world - should leave at the earliest possible opportunity, even after their freshman year. Hell, some select ones shouldn't even go to college - take the Brandon Jennings/Emmanuel Mudiay route and get paid.

it is selfish of us to think otherwise.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

I happen to believe that anyone who can make a living playing basketball - anywhere in the world - should leave at the earliest possible opportunity, even after their freshman year. Hell, some select ones shouldn't even go to college - take the Brandon Jennings/Emmanuel Mudiay route and get paid.

it is selfish of us to think otherwise.

Of course it's selfish of us. That's really what this 3 page thread all comes down to. We want them to do what is best for us, and that's stay on our team. Watching the SU highlight reel for the incoming class Rak was part of showed Rak, Cooney and MCW. God, how awesome would we be if MCW had stayed all 4? I don't care that he's a good pro, or that Grant abso-fabbing-lutely hit the lottery going to play for the tanking Sixers, I want to see SU dominate all who choose to stand in our way. And I'll rationalize whatever reasons you need to hear to make that happen.

 

[HOFCeluck]

Of course it's selfish of us. That's really what this 3 page thread all comes down to. We want them to do what is best for us, and that's stay on our team. Watching the SU highlight reel for the incoming class Rak was part of showed Rak, Cooney and MCW. God, how awesome would we be if MCW had stayed all 4? I don't care that he's a good pro, or that Grant abso-fabbing-lutely hit the lottery going to play for the tanking Sixers, I want to see SU dominate all who choose to stand in our way. And I'll rationalize whatever reasons you need to hear to make that happen.

In these fantasy scenarios where we talk about how DOMINANT we'd be if player x stayed for four years, I always find it funny that It's only OUR players who stay.

 

[Wallo]

i've seen a lot of jth "CUSEerian on ESPN top ten plays. jerami not so much this year.

Jerian Grant is fantastic. With him ,the "Cuse" would be very competive.More so than the return of Jeremi G. ! Wish both were with The Cuse this year ! Such is life !

 

[orangenirvana]

I happen to believe that anyone who can make a living playing basketball - anywhere in the world - should leave at the earliest possible opportunity, even after their freshman year. Hell, some select ones shouldn't even go to college - take the Brandon Jennings/Emmanuel Mudiay route and get paid.

it is selfish of us to think otherwise.

You're so noble!

I don't agree with your line of thinking from a logical (not emotional) standpoint. That doesn't mean I'm being selfish. It means I think Grant could have (would have) made more money in the long run by staying in school one more year.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

In these fantasy scenarios where we talk about how DOMINANT we'd be if player x stayed for four years, I always find it funny that It's only OUR players who stay.

Well, duh...

 

[moqui]

You're so noble!

I don't agree with your line of thinking from a logical (not emotional) standpoint. That doesn't mean I'm being selfish. It means I think Grant could have (would have) made more money in the long run by staying in school one more year.

that's not logic, that's belief.

you can believe that JG would have made more had he returned, but there is no way to prove it, and it is just as easy to create the counter scenario

 

[RF2044]

I won't add to other posters replies to this other than to say that I had PLENTY of 8:30 classes at SU & they were filled w/ athletes from every varsity sport. It's a bit cynical to suggest that they are exempt from all normal scholastic obligations in their entirety, with no proof other than conjecture.
Also, I am ABSOLUTELY suggesting that it's absurd to turn down $850k, in your chosen profession, risking injury, and playing for free- as opposed to getting on-the-job training & fulfilling a life-long dream. Since when is $850k over 2 years considered chump change? That's VERY good money and theres not an SU grad alive who'd turn that down if some company offered it...so why should Jerami? He felt it was worth the risk, and made the jump. Again, a no-brainer. JMHO

Its not absurd or a no brainer at all when one actually considers the facts. Jerami's choice wasn't between $850K versus $50K entry level job out of college. It was $850K versus whatever he might have garnered by spending an additional year improving his draft position.

No, $850K isn't chump change. And there is value to getting said $850K this year instead of waiting until next season to start cashing a paycheck. But there is opportunity cost as well--namely, if he improved his draft stock to where he got more than $1.7M in salary, then he's left money on the table by leaving last year. And while those numbers might balance out after two years, he'd blow away the equivalency in year 3.

Do the math.

Year 1 salary 850K + year 2 salary 850K + Year 3 salary 850K = 2.55M
Year 2 salary 1.7M + Year 3 salary 1.7M =3.4M

In other words, an opportunity cost of one million dollars. How's that "no brainer" work out now?

And that's just if he "only" earns $1.7M per his draft position pre-slotted salary [http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale]. Now, that would be the equivalent of the #13 draft spot, but also keep in mind that many media projections had him slotted in the lottery [including ESPN], until he started working out for teams and demonstrating that he couldn't shoot in private workouts. He might actually be drafted higher [earning an even higher amount of $$$] or lower, depending on how good of a year he has and how much of an expanded skill set his play would have demonstrated. But even if he dropped all the way to the end of the first round, he'd still eclipse what he'd earn under his current contract by year 3.

And that assumes that he gets a year 3, as his current contract is only for two years. Far from a no-brainer. He got bad intel, but fortunately for him the outcome ended up being best case scenario vis a vis him landing with the Sixers. That point can't be emphasized enough. Grant got very, very lucky.

 

[tbonezone]

ok but let's just suppose he's done at 25 (after all he's had these risky injury issues).
someone please tell me the average wage difference accumulated for a person with a college degree (syracuse no less) vs a typical hs degree between the peak earning years of say ages 25 -65. now there's some interesting long view math. basketball $ don't last long.

 

[Knicks411]

Yeah I def wouldn't say it was a no brainer, especially where he was drafted. He for sure got some bad intel.

Grant's contract is really interesting too; 2 years guaranteed at $850,000, whichg is really good for a second rounder, but then team options for 3 and 4 at the minimum.

 

[shandeezy7]

Its not absurd or a no brainer at all when one actually considers the facts. Jerami's choice wasn't between $850K versus $50K entry level job out of college. It was $850K versus whatever he might have garnered by spending an additional year improving his draft position.

No, $850K isn't chump change. And there is value to getting said $850K this year instead of waiting until next season to start cashing a paycheck. But there is opportunity cost as well--namely, if he improved his draft stock to where he got more than $1.7M in salary, then he's left money on the table by leaving last year. And while those numbers might balance out after two years, he'd blow away the equivalency in year 3.

Do the math.

Year 1 salary 850K + year 2 salary 850K + Year 3 salary 850K = 2.55M
Year 2 salary 1.7M + Year 3 salary 1.7M =3.4M

In other words, an opportunity cost of one million dollars. How's that "no brainer" work out now?

And that's just if he "only" earns $1.7M per his draft position pre-slotted salary [http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale]. Now, that would be the equivalent of the #13 draft spot, but also keep in mind that many media projections had him slotted in the lottery [including ESPN], until he started working out for teams and demonstrating that he couldn't shoot in private workouts. He might actually be drafted higher [earning an even higher amount of $$$] or lower, depending on how good of a year he has and how much of an expanded skill set his play would have demonstrated. But even if he dropped all the way to the end of the first round, he'd still eclipse what he'd earn under his current contract by year 3.

And that assumes that he gets a year 3, as his current contract is only for two years. Far from a no-brainer. He got bad intel, but fortunately for him the outcome ended up being best case scenario vis a vis him landing with the Sixers. That point can't be emphasized enough. Grant got very, very lucky.

What about the opportunity cost of coming back and blowing his knee out and never playing in the NBA. Did you forget about that calculation?

 

[RF2044]

What about the opportunity cost of coming back and blowing his knee out and never playing in the NBA. Did you forget about that calculation?

That's not a calculation. Its a subjective assumption / hypothetical.

What if he slips and breaks his neck getting out of bed in the morning?

What if he gets hit by a bolt of lightning in the bathtub?

High major draft prospects are allowed by the NCAA to procure insurance to help mitigate such risks to their eventual earning potential.

Generally speaking, though, a blown out knee wouldn't necessarily prevent him from eventually playing in the NBA, given how aggressively doctors / physical therapists get athletles back from those type of injuries. But I'll grant you that it would delay him getting there.

 

[Garbs]

Its not absurd or a no brainer at all when one actually considers the facts. Jerami's choice wasn't between $850K versus $50K entry level job out of college. It was $850K versus whatever he might have garnered by spending an additional year improving his draft position.

No, $850K isn't chump change. And there is value to getting said $850K this year instead of waiting until next season to start cashing a paycheck. But there is opportunity cost as well--namely, if he improved his draft stock to where he got more than $1.7M in salary, then he's left money on the table by leaving last year. And while those numbers might balance out after two years, he'd blow away the equivalency in year 3.

Do the math.

Year 1 salary 850K + year 2 salary 850K + Year 3 salary 850K = 2.55M
Year 2 salary 1.7M + Year 3 salary 1.7M =3.4M

In other words, an opportunity cost of one million dollars. How's that "no brainer" work out now?

And that's just if he "only" earns $1.7M per his draft position pre-slotted salary [http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale]. Now, that would be the equivalent of the #13 draft spot, but also keep in mind that many media projections had him slotted in the lottery [including ESPN], until he started working out for teams and demonstrating that he couldn't shoot in private workouts. He might actually be drafted higher [earning an even higher amount of $$$] or lower, depending on how good of a year he has and how much of an expanded skill set his play would have demonstrated. But even if he dropped all the way to the end of the first round, he'd still eclipse what he'd earn under his current contract by year 3.

And that assumes that he gets a year 3, as his current contract is only for two years. Far from a no-brainer. He got bad intel, but fortunately for him the outcome ended up being best case scenario vis a vis him landing with the Sixers. That point can't be emphasized enough. Grant got very, very lucky.

I don't think it is that simple, there are endorsements/investments etc, not to mention an extra year towards a pension

 

[RF2044]

I don't think it is that simple, there are endorsements/investments etc

Sure it is that simple, when it comes to reporting salaries.

Re: endorsements--do you not think that any endoresements Grant would get as a 2nd round pick would be opportunities that would present themselves at minimum comparably if he was a higher draft selection?

 

[Garbs]

Sure it is that simple, when it comes to reporting salaries.

Re: endorsements--do you not think that any endoresements Grant would get as a 2nd round pick would be opportunities that would present themselves at minimum comparably if he was a higher draft selection?

yea a year later

 

[RF2044]

yea a year later

Understood. However, I think you are overstating the magnitude of such endorsements for an end of the bench guy like Grant. Whatever money he lost year 1 in endorsements wouldn't appreciably change the point, in the main, about the financials working out better for a higher draft pick. And ceteris paribus, a first round draft pick's endorsements logically would be >>>>> than a second rounders's endorsements.

 

[Garbs]

Understood. However, I think you are overstating the magnitude of such endorsements for an end of the bench guy like Grant. Whatever money he lost year 1 in endorsements wouldn't appreciably change the point, in the main, about the financials working out better for a higher draft pick. And ceteris paribus, a first round draft pick's endorsements logically would be >>>>> than a second rounders's endorsements.

ok well you could argue a 2nd year players endorsements are >>>> than a first rounders

 

[shandeezy7]

That's not a calculation. Its a subjective assumption / hypothetical.

What if he slips and breaks his neck getting out of bed in the morning?

What if he gets hit by a bolt of lightning in the bathtub?

High major draft prospects are allowed by the NCAA to procure insurance to help mitigate such risks to their eventual earning potential.

Generally speaking, though, a blown out knee wouldn't necessarily prevent him from eventually playing in the NBA, given how aggressively doctors / physical therapists get athletles back from those type of injuries. But I'll grant you that it would delay him getting there.

So what you did in your "formula" had no assumptions, but what I said is an assumption? Alright then.

 

[TinyManInside]

This entire argument is completely hypothetic with no real way to test it out. It's a fruitless discussion in my opinion. You can point to examples on both sides of the argument (guys whose draft stock dropped by coming back to school vs. guys who came out early and couldn't make a roster) - but it doesn't prove anything either way. AFAIK, there is no such things as a time machine, so you just have no way of knowing how a kid would develop or what his perceived value would be if he had come back.

I also think that people really, really downplay development in the NBA vs. development in college. In the NBA, playing is your job, so you have more time to train, practice, and play... plus you get the benefit of top level facilities and teachers. In college you are capped with practice time, and you also have scholastic commitments. The single best way to get better AT ANYTHING is to put as much time as possible into learning and practicing that thing.

 

[obliterata]

Its not absurd or a no brainer at all when one actually considers the facts. Jerami's choice wasn't between $850K versus $50K entry level job out of college. It was $850K versus whatever he might have garnered by spending an additional year improving his draft position.

You're assuming he would improve his draft position by returning, that is not a given, if it was Jerami may very well have stayed. Indeed, if draft position improvement was a 100% fact you'd see a lot of players returning instead of leaving early and you guys who think they're making a mistake would have a very good argument.

 

[DoctorBombay]

Its not absurd or a no brainer at all when one actually considers the facts. Jerami's choice wasn't between $850K versus $50K entry level job out of college. It was $850K versus whatever he might have garnered by spending an additional year improving his draft position.

No, $850K isn't chump change. And there is value to getting said $850K this year instead of waiting until next season to start cashing a paycheck. But there is opportunity cost as well--namely, if he improved his draft stock to where he got more than $1.7M in salary, then he's left money on the table by leaving last year. And while those numbers might balance out after two years, he'd blow away the equivalency in year 3.

Do the math.

Year 1 salary 850K + year 2 salary 850K + Year 3 salary 850K = 2.55M
Year 2 salary 1.7M + Year 3 salary 1.7M =3.4M

In other words, an opportunity cost of one million dollars. How's that "no brainer" work out now?

And that's just if he "only" earns $1.7M per his draft position pre-slotted salary [http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale]. Now, that would be the equivalent of the #13 draft spot, but also keep in mind that many media projections had him slotted in the lottery [including ESPN], until he started working out for teams and demonstrating that he couldn't shoot in private workouts. He might actually be drafted higher [earning an even higher amount of $$$] or lower, depending on how good of a year he has and how much of an expanded skill set his play would have demonstrated. But even if he dropped all the way to the end of the first round, he'd still eclipse what he'd earn under his current contract by year 3.

And that assumes that he gets a year 3, as his current contract is only for two years. Far from a no-brainer. He got bad intel, but fortunately for him the outcome ended up being best case scenario vis a vis him landing with the Sixers. That point can't be emphasized enough. Grant got very, very lucky.

Fair enough.
But your entire premise is based on the subjective assumptions that:
(a) He improves his draft stock by having a big year.
(b) He doesnt get injured, and/or become academically ineligible, or something else prevents him from playing (NCAA suspension, etc.).
(c) He'd get better by staying at SU, versus having access to superior training and coaching at the professional level (NBA/D-League/Euro-League).
(d) He doesn't want/need and is willing to wait for the $850k right now, as opposed to a year from now.

As TMInside points out, theres no real way to get a definitive answer- every case is different. Which is why, for better or worse, the player making the decision has the final say...its their choice and their decision.
Whatever "outcome" we'd consider a failure, may not be so for most of these guys. And, I submit that getting paid to play professionally versus staying and "hoping" for a bigger jackpot, is the better decision. JMHO

 

[Garbs]

the only facts are that he is making more money right now than if he was at Syracuse this year

 

[moqui]

[hijack] in at least one alternate universe, Syracuse is storming through an undefeated season featuring 4 players currently on the Sixers roster: MCW, Grant, NN & Tony Wroten [/hijack]