Feb 24 & 25 - Weekend Bubble Schedule

[jncuse]

Do we get credit for being in a semi close game for a minute or two, since we only had a 9% chance lol. Jumps right out at you compared to the other %s.

No credit. But compared to other losers we should get the least punished. But you still lose ground to people that had Q1 and Q2 wins today.

 

[bpo57]

The one name that stands out to me in that chart is Boise State. That 10% seems to understate their chances by a considerable amount.

 

[bpo57]

Actually I'll add a second name. At 4% Nebraska's chances are understated as well. I know their resume is so-so but I'll believe a B1G member at 13-5 (if they beat PSU tomorrow) getting bounced when I see it.

 

[jncuse]

The one name that stands out to me in that chart is Boise State. That 10% seems to understate their chances by a considerable amount.

The 10% is the percentage of brackets they are in on the matrix as of today. Not a probability that they will get in.

They have no quad 1 wins, and that has worked against teams from these level of conferences in recent years. (Illinois St in 2017, San Diego St in 2016)

They also have decent, but not over the top power rankings, which I believe the committee does use for smaller schools to more fairly compare apples and oranges. Teams like Boise don't have the opportunity to get Quad 1 wins so power rankings see like a fairer equalizer. If the KenPom was closer to #40, rather than #53 I would feel stronger about their chances.

I won't have them in on my final picks, at the same time if I pick someone off the radar that gets in it could be the. But they are not helped by the fact that they can't really improve their resume much from here on out. Quad 3 wins are not going to move you.

 

[jncuse]

Actually I'll add a second name. At 4% Nebraska's chances are understated as well. I know their resume is so-so but I'll believe a B1G member at 13-5 (if they beat PSU tomorrow) getting bounced when I see it.

I believe that P12 and SEC teams, when they were viewed poorly as conferences, also had 13-5 teams that missed the tourney.

The Big-10 conference RPI this year is as bad as any P5 conference in recent memory. So the 13-5 record will likely be not held with much regard. Even by those on the committee who choose to look at those things, but shouldn't be.

 

[bpo57]

I believe that P12 and SEC teams, when they were viewed poorly as conferences, also had 13-5 teams that missed the tourney.

The Big-10 conference RPI this year is as bad as any P5 conference in recent memory. So the 13-5 record will likely be not held with much regard. Even by those on the committee who choose to look at those things, but shouldn't be.

I think this year alone the P-12 is worse than the B1G. Like I said, I'll believe it when I see it.

Boise State deserves more love than the BM is providing as well.

 

[bpo57]

I believe that P12 and SEC teams, when they were viewed poorly as conferences, also had 13-5 teams that missed the tourney.

The Big-10 conference RPI this year is as bad as any P5 conference in recent memory. So the 13-5 record will likely be not held with much regard. Even by those on the committee who choose to look at those things, but shouldn't be.

Btw I'm sure that same conference RPI metric told us that the ACC was the belle of the ball prior to last year's tourney. God I hope they're still not relying on that thoroughly discredited metric to pick and seed tournament teams.

 

[pearl31]

stupid vcu

 

[jncuse]

I think this year alone the P-12 is worse than the B1G. Like I said, I'll believe it when I see it.

Boise State deserves more love than the BM is providing as well.

Those margins look small, but in realty, a 0.02 difference between P5 conferences is really huge in terms of what it will do your quality win opportunities. The Big Ten/P12 are basically perceived at the same level as the American this year... not the other power conferences. So yes the Big 10 is that bad.

And I have found 2 historical teams that did not get in at 13-5 (or something resembling it)
In 2012, Oregon did not get in at 13-5. In 2011, Alabama did not get in at 12-4.

Conference RPI (which is largely determined by December 31) drives the entire selection process. The top 4 conferences get a ton of quad 1 win opportunities by simply beating up on each other -- this year the SEC and the B12 are really benefiting from it.

(I know you hate that, but don't shoot the messenger. It doesn't mean I fully agree with it either, but if I am going to explain what teams I think are getting in, it has to be on the current criteria and not what I think the criteria should be).

 

[jncuse]

Boise State deserves more love than the BM is providing as well.

Teams like LSU, Marquette, Washington, and even Temple, have been getting in above teams like Boise St in recent memory.

I can't blame anybody for putting one of them on their bracket instead of Boise St.

 

[jncuse]

Btw I'm sure that same conference RPI metric told us that the ACC was the belle of the ball prior to last year's tourney. God I hope they're still not relying on that thoroughly discredited metric to pick and seed tournament teams.

The ACC in 2017, the Pac 12 in 2016, the Big East in 2011, all got many teams in the tournament because they had great Conference RPI. The Conference RPI is the driver of who gets in -- it may not be a predictor of the tourney results, but it drives the quantity of top quality victories during the season available to P5 teams. And that always drives seeding and who gets in.

Once again, please don't shoot the messenger. You can't just select teams based on whatever basis you think makes sense. I am framing my arguments in terms of what they

For example this year since they said they now recognize power rankings, it would have been a perfect year to change the metric they use to rank the teams to determine what is / and what is not a high quality victory. Use a real group of power rankings rather than RPI. But I have heard no indication that they are doing that.
But even with power rankings they are ultimately heavily influenced by what happened prior to December 31.

 

[nycfan]

stupid vcu

Yeah, that makes 10 in a row for the Bonnies. With an RPI around 25, and twice as many Quadrant 1 wins as us, including a win in our house, it's time to admit they are Dancing. If we make it in, it will be with them, not in place of them.

 

[bpo57]

View attachment 123507

Those margins look small, but in realty, a 0.02 difference between P5 conferences is really huge in terms of what it will do your quality win opportunities. The Big Ten/P12 are basically perceived at the same level as the American this year... not the other power conferences. So yes the Big 10 is that bad.

And I have found 2 historical teams that did not get in at 13-5 (or something resembling it)
In 2012, Oregon did not get in at 13-5. In 2011, Alabama did not get in at 12-4.

Conference RPI (which is largely determined by December 31) drives the entire selection process. The top 4 conferences get a ton of quad 1 win opportunities by simply beating up on each other -- this year the SEC and the B12 are really benefiting from it.

(I know you hate that, but don't shoot the messenger. It doesn't mean I fully agree with it either, but if I am going to explain what teams I think are getting in, it has to be on the current criteria and not what I think the criteria should be).

I hear you on the criteria argument. I just don't like the RPI so not all that willing to concede analysis to that metric.

So Oregon is probably the only team in history to be denied from a power conference when they won 13 games. That is not much precedence. Nebraska does not have a lot of bad losses. Close losses to KU and Ohio State, a loss at Creighton. They win tomorrow and then win a B1G tournament game then I like their chances. But they badly need to win tomorrow.

Btw do you have a way of rounding up what the conference RPIs were prior to last year's tournament?

 

[bpo57]

Yeah, that makes 10 in a row for the Bonnies. With an RPI around 25, and twice as many Quadrant 1 wins as us, including a win in our house, it's time to admit they are Dancing. If we make it in, it will be with them, not in place of them.

That ship has sailed. We need help elsewhere.

 

[jncuse]

Btw do you have a way of rounding up what the conference RPIs were prior to last year's tournament?

Warren Nolan maintains the RPI for several years. The one slight problem is that the conference RPI is measured post NCAA / NIT tourney, so it is not the same as where it was entering the tournament. But I would think they are generally comparable.

NCAA College Sports Schedules, Rankings, RPI, Polls, Scores, Stats - WarrenNolan.com

 

[jncuse]

So Oregon is probably the only team in history to be denied from a power conference when they won 13 games. That is not much precedence. Nebraska does not have a lot of bad losses. Close losses to KU and Ohio State, a loss at Creighton. They win tomorrow and then win a B1G tournament game then I like their chances. But they badly need to win tomorrow.

The thing is the majority of 12-6 and 13-5 teams had a handful of quality wins. So they are not really comparables either.

Nebraska is in a very unique situation. Going 13-5 or 12-4 with no quality wins, or just one, in a P5 conference is largely unheard of. That group is probably small as well and I suspect includes those Oregon and Alabama teams.

If they go 13-5, they will be the most discussed team entering selection week, as their resume will already be complete.

 

[bpo57]

Teams like LSU, Marquette, Washington, and even Temple, have been getting in above teams like Boise St in recent memory.

I can't blame anybody for putting one of them on their bracket instead of Boise St.

Have to respectfully disagree on just about all of those. Temple has played a good schedule but you have to beat somebody, it's not enough to just play good teams. They've lost a ton of games. Same for Marquette. Bad loss to DePaul today. They've got no shot unless they do big damage in the BET. Washington just hasn't done much to stand out.

 

[bpo57]

The ACC in 2017, the Pac 12 in 2016, the Big East in 2011, all got many teams in the tournament because they had great Conference RPI. The Conference RPI is the driver of who gets in -- it may not be a predictor of the tourney results, but it drives the quantity of top quality victories during the season available to P5 teams. And that always drives seeding and who gets in.

Once again, please don't shoot the messenger. You can't just select teams based on whatever basis you think makes sense. I am framing my arguments in terms of what they

For example this year since they said they now recognize power rankings, it would have been a perfect year to change the metric they use to rank the teams to determine what is / and what is not a high quality victory. Use a real group of power rankings rather than RPI. But I have heard no indication that they are doing that.
But even with power rankings they are ultimately heavily influenced by what happened prior to December 31.

Stop saying that, I'm not shooting you. I'm explaining why it's a bad metric that should not be so heavily relied upon, not blaming it on you. Last year the metric said the ACC was the biggest and baddest. They shat the bed. Same deal with the Pac-12 in 2016. Crazy to rely so heavily on a metric when it's been such a mixed (at best) predictor of tournament results.

 

[jncuse]

Have to respectfully disagree on just about all of those. Temple has played a good schedule but you have to beat somebody, it's not enough to just play good teams. They've lost a ton of games. Same for Marquette. Bad loss to DePaul today. They've got no shot unless they do big damage in the BET. Washington just hasn't done much to stand out.

Temple is the Arizona St of the bubble. They have played like crap in the regular season, but they beat Clemson and Auburn in the preseason before we know those were going to be really good win. They have 3 top 15 RPI wins. So the one thing they are not lacking is quality wins. What will actually hurt them is 4 bad losses which is a couple more than everybody else. A 4-4 quad 3 record is really bad.

To be fair to those on the matrix, they had Marquette in before they lost to Depaul. That is a bad loss that changes the view on them significantly.

Washington just keeps getting weaker. If I had to pick Boise St over anybody before today, I could certainly see the case against them. And if the committee is looking at power rankings that really does hurt Washington more than other teams. Their KenPom ranking is 96. I know this is not a standard metric, but I don't remember any at large having a KP near #96.

 

[bpo57]

Is Loyola somebody that could get a bid if they don't win the MVC tourney?

 

[jncuse]

Stop saying that, I'm not shooting you. I'm explaining why it's a bad metric that should not be so heavily relied upon, not blaming it on you. Last year the metric said the ACC was the biggest and baddest. They shat the bed. Same deal with the Pac-12 in 2016. Crazy to rely so heavily on a metric when it's been such a mixed (at best) predictor of tournament results.

Fair enough.

I'm not sure if the power rankings would have been any better in 2017. Like the RPI, they loved the ACC.

In 2016, the power rankings indicated that the RPI significantly overrated the Pac12 however.

There will never be a perfect metrics because it is influenced by how the conference you are in does before Decembe 31st , but there are better ones. I have never been a fan of the eye test. I would support people voting on some sort of formula (that has noting to do with the RPI) that spits out the the 36 at-larges.

Is Loyola somebody that could get a bid if they don't win the MVC tourney?

You can group Loyola with Louisiana-Lafayette. They are about the same resumes. Loyola has the win at Florida, which is not helping them as much anymore.

But I do think this is where the reliance on the power rankings come in (just a hunch). It is not fair to compare that school's resume to a P5 school, when they can't get Quad 1 wins.

Loyola is 47 (OK, but enough to get benefit of the doubt?), Louisiana is 58 (not so much)

 

[bpo57]

Fair enough.

I'm not sure if the power rankings would have been any better in 2017. Like the RPI, they loved the ACC.

In 2016, the power rankings indicated that the RPI significantly overrated the Pac12 however.

There will never be a perfect metrics because it is influenced by how the conference you are in does before Decembe 31st , but there are better ones. I have never been a fan of the eye test. I would support people voting on some sort of formula (that has noting to do with the RPI) that spits out the the 36 at-larges.




You can group Loyola with Louisiana-Lafayette. They are about the same resumes. Loyola has the win at Florida, which is not helping them as much anymore.

But I do think this is where the reliance on the power rankings come in (just a hunch). It is not fair to compare that school's resume to a P5 school, when they can't get Quad 1 wins.

Loyola is 47 (OK, but enough to get benefit of the doubt?), Louisiana is 58 (not so much)

Reason I asked on Loyola is that I noticed they're 34 in the RPI. I've watched them play and they're a fun team to watch. Balanced attack, well coached and play solid defense. I get your points about the lack of opportunity to get quad 1 wins. It's stacked against the little guy. I think we need more little guys - as long as it's not at the expense of SU. I could see them getting in if they make it to their conference final unscathed.

 

[bpo57]

One other thing about Loyola. They have two guards - Custer and Richardson - that played in HS together (went 94-6) but were both injured in the middle of the season for a short stretch and missed their two worst losses. The Committee might take that into account.

 

[jncuse]

One other thing about Loyola. They have two guards - Custer and Richardson - that played in HS together (went 94-6) but were both injured in the middle of the season for a short stretch and missed their two worst losses. The Committee might take that into account.

They would be the type of team I would invite above a 9-9 or 8-10 P5 team. But that is not what they do.

They do scare me enough that as a Syracuse fan, I do want them to win their conference tourney next week.

 

[nycfan]

Ugh -- Oregon with the huge comeback against Zona, now up 4 after 13-0 run (7 min left). A win gives them a 2nd Quad 1 win (matching us) but a better Q1 record (2-5 vs 2-7). Their overall and league records would be better as well (19-10, 9-7), but RPI not as good. You can still make the argument we have a better resume, but close enough for them to be in the hunt down the stretch (too close if they run off a bunch of late season wins).