Class of 2017 Fishes and loaves--hoops style

[RF2044]

With all of the discussion in the Randolph thread about our recruiting class for 2017, I thought it would be interesting to do a breakdown of what next year's squad looks like, factoring in a couple of different scenarios.

What we already know:

• Syracuse only has 10 players on the roster for the upcoming season
• 4 of those players are seniors
• We can have up to 11 scholarship players next year [17-18 season]

Scenario 1: Attrition comes from departing seniors only

Under scenario 1, the only departures from the team come from graduating seniors. In this case--Coleman, Roberson, Gillon, and White.

Returning # of players: 6
Roster: Howard, Battle, Lydon, Thompson, Moyer, Chukwu
# of open scholarships for class of 2017: 5
Logistics / Issues:

• Frontcourt heavy
• Limited returning backcourt depth
• Incoming recruiting class might not be counted upon to start immediately
• Frontcourt has lots of size / versatility
• Returning go-to scorers in Lydon / Battle

Scenario 2: +1

Under scenario 2, not only does Coach Boeheim have to replace the graduating seniors, but also one of Tyler Lydon and / or Tyus Battle opting to go pro.

Returning # of players: 5
Roster: Howard, Thompson, Moyer, Chukwu, Battle OR Lydon
# of open scholarships for class of 2017: 6
Logistics / Issues:

• Extremely limited returning backcourt depth, especially if Battle is the early entrant
• Larger incoming recruiting class to integrate
• Returning depth at the power positions
• Scoring could be an issue, as only one of Lydon / Battle return, and no other returnees are big scorers

Scenario 3: +2

Worst case scenario for next year's team: Coach Boeheim has to replace the 4 graduating seniors PLUS Tyler Lydon and Tyus Battle, both of whom elect to go pro next offseason.

Returning players: 4
Roster: Howard, Thompson, Moyer, Chukwu
# of open scholarships for class of 2017: 7
Logistics / Issues:

• Extremely limited returning backcourt depth [only Howard returns]
• No viable wings amongst returnees
• Unbelievably large incoming recruiting class
• Several members of recruiting class will have to step into contributing roles
• Returning depth at the power positions is good
• Scoring would be a major question mark heading into 17-18 season

Most likely scenarios: #2 or #3
Just a guess, but it seems likely that with a big season [and lots of positive attribution, if Syracuse has the big year many are predicting], at least one of Lydon / Battle will elect to declare hardship and enter the NBA draft. If we make the Final Four, I'd expect BOTH to make the jump.

The only thing that might prevent this from happening are:

• If Lydon / Battle really enjoy the collegiate experience, and want to come back / put off earning $$$
• If Battle underachieves, struggles, and / or shows some glaring limitation in his game that he'd have to work on
• Injury to either player

If one or both of those underclassmen leave, we're looking at having to add an exorbitantly large class just to get back to having 10 scholarship players on the roster next year. Several of those incoming players would have to contribute for the team to flourish and get back to the NCAA tournament.

Classes of 6 or 7 players are pretty rare; if this is what we're looking at for the class of 2017, I'd expect the coaching staff to bring in 4-5 high school players [including a prospect or two with upside, who projects as a good system fit but also a 4-year program guy], as well as another 5th-year transfer or two who could contribute immediately and plug a roster hole a la Andrew White / John Gillon.

No matter what rock the staff overturns to reel them in, expect the class of 2017 to be guard / wing heavy, but also to add a big [or two] to bolster returning depth.



What 's Uncertain Today:

• How NBA ready is Battle?
• How well will Battle shoot this year?
• Will Moyer eventually project as a 3 or a 4?
• Do we get "credit" with the NCAA for being down the 1 scholarship we could have used for 2016-2017 season?
• What happens if we lose out on Green and / or Lonnie Walker?
• Is Jordan Tucker going to reemerge as a priority now that Randolph is off the table?

 

[cliftonparksufan]

I really like the Moyer, TT, FH, Chukwu foursome as a base. I mean, I really like it. However we need at least four solid contributors to team with them. It's important for a smooth Hop transition.

 

[jordoo]

I really like the Moyer, TT, FH, Chukwu foursome as a base. I mean, I really like it. However we need at least four solid contributors to team with them. It's important for a smooth Hop transition.

Shooting is a weakness but yeah I agree that's a strong 4 to be bringing back.

 

[chugg21]

Its a strong 4 but is basically a non-shooter PG, 2 PFs & a non-shooter C. Incredible zone length and defense but going to need a serious injection of offense.

 

[iommi]

Haven't even read your post yet. Wow, I feel like I should be judging it like artwork. Very ornate. So let me read this opus and then comment...

 

[iommi]

Its a strong 4 but is basically a non-shooter PG, 2 PFs & a non-shooter C. Incredible zone length and defense but going to need a serious injection of offense.

This is spot on.

I don't see any chance that Lydon comes back. It's possible that Battle returns but still something I would never bet on. That being said, even if Battle were to come back, shooting would be in short supply.

I think Moyer projects as a 4 this season (assuming he doesn't take a very possible redshirt) and maybe even next, and a bit of a 3/4 tweener down the line once he becomes more confident from deep. Moyer's stroke is okay but his form needs some refinement.

Staff has some serious work to do. You always get the best you can and never worry about the players being likely one-and-dones. That said, for the long term fitnesse of the program, it wouldn't be the end of the world to get a few more guys who need some development. Considering where we are heading right now, we might not have any choice. Silver lining.

In the meantime, let's stay healthy this year. Should be so much fun to watch.

Great work, RF.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

I don't think scenario 3 should be called the worst case scenario. It is pretty much the expected scenario. Worst case could include 7'2" showing tremendous growth and declaring, and/or F Howard transferring.

No need to panic yet. Q Greene and a stud wing will hopefully materialize soon.

 

[RF2044]

I don't think scenario 3 should be called the worst case scenario. It is pretty much the expected scenario. Worst case could include 7'2" showing tremendous growth and declaring, and/or F Howard transferring

No need to panic yet. Q Greene and a stud wing will hopefully materialize soon.

From the standpoint of continuity between this year and next, it is worst case scenario. Chukwu blowing up and turning pro isn't especially realistic, therefore that option wasn't considered. Nor is Howard transferring anything likely, except to an infinitesimally small degree.

Might that happen? I mean, I suppose. Chukwu could also get a knee infection like the Alton giant and never play again, other players could get hit by a bus, etc.

But some outcomes are too far fetched to worry about.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

From the standpoint of continuity between this year and next, it is worst case scenario. Chukwu blowing up and turning pro isn't especially realistic, therefore that option wasn't considered. Nor is Howard transferring anything likely, except to an infinitesimally small degree.

Might that happen? I mean, I suppose. Chukwu could also get a knee infection like the Alton giant and never play again, other players could get hit by a bus, etc.

But some outcomes are too far fetched to worry about.

So you're only going to be worried about the expected? I hope the staff has a broader view. We need guards.

There is the expectation that the guard position will be extremely thin. And borderline disastrous if FH leaves. You may see this factor into the staff's decisions on PT or starting. Gillon may start for several months (until after QG commits) and then FH takes the job. Keeping FH happy is that important.

And while I agree the odds will be low that FH leaves, IMO, it is at least the equal to the odds that only the seniors leave. Lydon especially is gone.

 

[Cusefan0307]

So you're only going to be worried about the expected? I hope the staff has a broader view. We need guards.

There is the expectation that the guard position will be extremely thin. And borderline disastrous if FH leaves. You may see this factor into the staff's decisions on PT or starting. Gillon may start for several months (until after QG commits) and then FH takes the job. Keeping FH happy is that important.

And while I agree the odds will be low that FH leaves, IMO, it is at least the equal to the odds that only the seniors leave. Lydon especially is gone.

Why would Frank transfer? Many people who are close to the program think he's the starting PG this year. We aren't talking about a Kaleb Joseph here.

 

[RF2044]

So you're only going to be worried about the expected? I hope the staff has a broader view. We need guards.

There is the expectation that the guard position will be extremely thin. And borderline disastrous if FH leaves. You may see this factor into the staff's decisions on PT or starting. Gillon may start for several months (until after QG commits) and then FH takes the job. Keeping FH happy is that important.

And while I agree the odds will be low that FH leaves, IMO, it is at least the equal to the odds that only the seniors leave. Lydon especially is gone.

I doubt the coaches agree with your assessment of those odds. Howard will be a major contributor this season and could start the next two years subsequent to this one--why would he leave?

Should we also be preparing for one of the players to get struck by a bolt of lightning, because it could happen?

I think I covered sufficiently the backcourt depth issues in the OP.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

Why would Frank transfer? Many people who are close to the program think he's the starting PG this year. We aren't talking about a Kaleb Joseph here.

I'm saying a possible poor scenario could have either FH or 7'2" leave (and FH would be the worse of the two). It's certainly not expected but it's not infinitesimal either.

As for FH, while many think he might be the starting pg, there are also many who see him as the 4th guard. And if FH ends up as the 4th guard, PT could be a problem. Add in a possible QG pickup and SU doing another venture into the grad pool and you can see how a scenario exists where FH could ponder transferring. I hope it doesn't happen.

My point was I just don't think that having Lydon and Battle leave is the worst possible case scenario for SU. Seems like it should be more the expected scenario.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I'm saying a possible poor scenario could have either FH or 7'2" leave (and FH would be the worse of the two). It's certainly not expected but it's not infinitesimal either.

As for FH, while many think he might be the starting pg, there are also many who see him as the 4th guard. And if FH ends up as the 4th guard, PT could be a problem. Add in a possible QG pickup and SU doing another venture into the grad pool and you can see how a scenario exists where FH could ponder transferring. I hope it doesn't happen.

My point was I just don't think that having Lydon and Battle leave is the worst possible case scenario for SU. Seems like it should be more the expected scenario.

Have you seen the starting lineup thread? Jake has him starting at the point. Nobody sees FH as the 4th guard, and if Battle doesn't prove he can shoot he's not going anywhere either.

I expect Lydon to leave. That is it. If Battle shoots it well, he's probably gone too, but we are a long way from armageddon.

Quade and Howard can play together too. We did that with MCW and Triche, and Scoop and Triche, so it's not like we haven't started multiple "lead" guards before.

 

[Knicks411]

I think if Lydon doesn't go pro this year that's probably a bad thing (for the upcoming season).

I haven't seen Chukwu play; there's a part of me that just sees a 7-2 guy or whatever he is and think there's a slight chance he has a decent year and leaves. But that's total speculation.

One other thing I'll throw out; the NBA may have a new CBA in a few months. Possible they get rid of the one and done and make it 2 years. (I've heard nothing on this, just wanted to mention it)

 

[44doubledees]

Question for next year's team who would you rather have come back if you could lydon or battle. I think I would take battle.

 

[creatorsgam]

Question for next year's team who would you rather have come back if you could lydon or battle. I think I would take battle.

Based on...

Edit: this peculiar question really should be in it's own thread so this doesn't go in a different direction than the OP's intent.

 

[Zcuse]

Question for next year's team who would you rather have come back if you could lydon or battle. I think I would take battle.

I'll bite. Since the question is between these two:
1. A 6'9"+ forward who was a major contributor on a college team that went to the final 4, who can shoot with the best of them, play both forward positions and add minutes as a scoring Center coming back for a junior year (which is nearly unprecedented lately for a Syracuse draftable prospect).
or
2. A shooting guard with size, who tore it up in AAU, who the scouting reports say is the real deal in pre-season practice.

It would be option 1,Lydon, hands down as the MUCH surer thing.

If you are saying that iff you KNOW that Battle is going to be as good as expected/hoped, and would fill the position that we "need more" in 2017, since we have more seasoned forwards who are expected to be on the roster, than the case could be made that Battle makes our 2017/2018 team more rounded.
I'd still take a 3rd year Lydon, and bring in a transfer shooting guard who wants to join the train to the final 4 in 2017/18.
I hope Battle is so good, that this would be up for debate at the end of the year. Me thinks we will be swaying to "one Shining Moment" in 7 months if that's the case...

 

[jordoo]

Question for next year's team who would you rather have come back if you could lydon or battle. I think I would take battle.

Easy Lydon.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Easy Lydon.

Best forward we've had since Hak/Melo.

 

[jordoo]

Best forward we've had since Hak/Melo.

Can play all 3 front court spots and be a mismatch at each!

 

[Warrenn28]

Best case scenario for us is Lydon & Battle go in the first round. White Frank, Chuckwu, who ever else go in the second round. The more kids we get into the league the more recruits want to go to SU. Plain and simple. Yes the holes in line ups every year is scary but we have to trust the process that success brings in recruits. We cannot ever bash kids for leaving early. My motto you are good enough to get guaranteed money go to pros. If not stay!!

 

[kcsu]

I bet chubaka battle and frank return. Lydon is top 15

 

[iommi]

Best case scenario for us is Lydon & Battle go in the first round. White Frank, Chuckwu, who ever else go in the second round. The more kids we get into the league the more recruits want to go to SU. Plain and simple. Yes the holes in line ups every year is scary but we have to trust the process that success brings in recruits. We cannot ever bash kids for leaving early. My motto you are good enough to get guaranteed money go to pros. If not stay!!

I believe SU is tied for 4th with players being drafted since 2010. Not too shabby.

 

[jordoo]

I believe SU is tied for 4th with players being drafted since 2010. Not too shabby.

It's funny because we do a great job getting guys picked that didn't enter the season on the draft boards or very highly on the draft boards. I'm convinced our staff does a great job making their kids better yet the top 15 flick to UK n Duke every season.:noidea:

 

[HoustonCuse]

It's funny because we do a great job getting guys picked that didn't enter the season on the draft boards or very highly on the draft boards. I'm convinced our staff does a great job making their kids better yet the top 15 flick to UK n Duke every season.:noidea:

Exactly. This should be our biggest recruiting pitch. UK doesn't get kids into the league, they simply turn sure thing picks into sure thing picks (most of the time, sometimes they don't even do that). Syracuse is the place that absolutely "gets people into the NBA." Ennis, MCW, Grant, Mike G, Dion, etc. None of these guys was even close to being considered a stud NBA prospect when they set foot on campus the year they were drafted.