For old time sakes - 2022 Bubble Watch and Pre-Tourney Selection Thread

[jncuse]

These St. Mary's / Gonzaga games are often pretty good (more so around 8-10 years ago).

The WCC Title game is within 3 with 11 minutes to go so should be entertaining finish.
St. Mary's also beat Gonzaga earlier in the year.

 

[jncuse]

First relevant match of bubble week is tomorrow between Wake and BC.
Wake is currently in on 135 of 141 brackets.. fighting to avoid the play in game.

This is a pure nuisance game for them. It will not help them in any way, it could only hurt them if they lose.
A bad loss here would make them a bit uncomfortable on Selection Sunday especially if there are some bubble busters.

 

[jncuse]

Xavier is currently in on 137 of 141 brackets.
Also currently in a play in game situation.
They are in a solid situation, but a Q3 loss here would certainly give them some concern heading into Selection Sunday. Similar to Wake above. I would like one of Wake or Xavier to lose tomorrow just to provide a little chaos.

Xavier has benefitted from the metrics really liking the big East.
They had 14 Q1 win opportunities which makes it much easier to build up a nice resume

 

[NineOneSeven]

Can't wait to steal a bid after we win our next 4.

 

[jncuse]

Not that this game has any relevance.
But did not realize that Georgetown went 0-19 in the Big East, and only won 6 games all year. That is really bad.

Sadly one of those 6 wins was against US.

 

[jncuse]

Looking at teams playing who can make a run to their tourney finals (and then lose) and might get into the at large discussion. Noted two possible teams - Virginia and Washington St.

Don't think it would be enough in either case. And since its unlikely they make a run to the final can look at it closer if they actually get that far.

 

[Arangeman]

I mean St Mary’s wasn’t going to win but the officiating has been disgusting against them.

 

[jncuse]

Conference Tourney Bubble Buster Analysis

The first week of conference tourneys had no bubble busters - the two big risks of causing one , Loyola Chicago and Murray St won their conference tournaments.

This week my guess is there will only be 1. And that is Davidson losing in the A-10. There is a chance there could be 2, but I view that as less likely than not.


P5+Big East - Low Chance
Other then Syracuse, which has a probability of about 83.7% of winning the ACC tournament its not likely any of the p5+BE have a team on the outside win its conference tourney.

It generally happens once every 5-10 years -- and that is not in any individual conference but all conferences. That being said it happened twice last year -- Georgetown and Oregon St -- which was extremely improbable.

I suppose if I had to pick a conference to watch the most for this its the P12. With only 3 auto bids, its just a lower numbers game for them compared to other conferences. I still see it a very unlikely however that one of Arizona, USC, or UCLA does not win that tourney.

Atlantic 10 - High Chance - Field vs Davidson

This is a conference that very regularly has a bubble buster. And it will more likely than not have one this year. Davidson probably gets an at-large especially if they avoid a bad loss in the A-10.

But it's basically the Field vs Davidson if you are team on the bubble. And you have to like the field.

American - Modest Chance - Field vs Houston & Memphis & SMU (sort of)
SMU is sort of an either way as they are the last in per the bracket matrix. If you are a bubble team you want them to lose in the AAC, as long as Houston or Memphis win.

I think the chance of a team outside those 3 winning the AAC is quite low -- the best contenders are Temple and Tulane.

Mountain West - Low Chance - Field vs Colorado St/Wyoming/San Diego St/Boise St

Typically a conference that is more likely to have a bubble buster, with 4 teams protecting the field the odds are quite a bit lower this year.

 

[jncuse]

Seth Greenberg just said Virginia Tech would get in with wins over Clemson and Notre Dame.
Apparently he hit the bottle early today.

 

[RF2044]

THAT WAS AWESOME!!!!

Even if just for one day, it felt great to be a Syracuse fan! Performance for the ages.

 

[jncuse]

Only looking at the 85 brackets submitted yesterday. Above the Bubble Line is heavy ACC and some Big East with some big names like Michigan and Memphis.

Largely the same as above. Results for the weekend will be updated in this thread.

Last Teams In
Wake Forest - 82 - no game this weekend
Creighton - 81 - Q2 loss vs Seton Hall
Xavier - 81 - Q4 win over Georgetown
North Carolina - 80 - Q1 win over Duke
Miami - 80 - Q2 win over Syracuse
Wyoming - 78 - Q3 win over Fresno St in OT
Notre Dame - 77 - Q4 win over Pitt
Michigan - 76 - Q1 win over Ohio St
Memphis - 71 - Q1 Win over Houston
Loyola - 65 - (MVC Conference Tourney - Q2 Win Friday, Q2 Win Saturday,
VCU - 47 - Q1 Loss vs St Louis

First Teams Out
Rutgers - 46 - Q3 win over Penn St
BYU - 32 - (WCC Conference tourney - Q4 Win Friday, Q1 Loss vs San Francisco)
Indiana - 26 - Q1 Loss at Purdue
SMU - 24
Florida - 10 - Q1 Loss vs Kentucky
Virginia Tech - 6 - Q2 Loss at Clemson
UAB - 6 - Q3 Win vs Louisiana Tech
Oklahoma - 4 - Q1 Win at Kansas St
Dayton - 2 - Q2 Home Win vs Davidson
St Bonaventure - 2 - Q3 home win

Wake Forest loses to BC. What a disastrous period for Wake between Saturday and Wednesday.

Entering Saturday they were at the top of the cluster of teams on the bubble. Then on the weekend most everybody just below them won, and many including 3 teams getting Q1 wins.

I suspect they will be on the right side of the bubble line on the matrix anyway before Selection Sunday. Not in a comfortable spot either.

 

[jncuse]

Bracket Matrix entering Wednesday games

Last Teams In (# of Bracket in, Avg Seed)
Creighton 96% in, 10.15 seed
Memphis 99% in, 10.29 seed
Michigan 99% in, 10.49 seed
Wake Forest 96%, 10.61 seed
Notre Dame 96%, 10.92 seed
Play in - Xavier 97%, 11.05 seed
Play in - Wyoming 96%, 11.08 seed
Play in - Rutgers 76%, 11.67 seed
Play in - SMU 84%, 11.86 seed

First Teams Out
VCU - 41%
Indiana - 14%
BYU - 10%
Dayton - 7%
Oklahoma - 6%
UAB - 6%
Florida - 4%
Virginia Tech - 4%

 

[jncuse]

Xavier is currently in on 137 of 141 brackets.
Also currently in a play in game situation.
They are in a solid situation, but a Q3 loss here would certainly give them some concern heading into Selection Sunday. Similar to Wake above. I would like one of Wake or Xavier to lose tomorrow just to provide a little chaos.

Xavier has benefitted from the metrics really liking the big East.
They had 14 Q1 win opportunities which makes it much easier to build up a nice resume


View attachment 215338



View attachment 215337

So both Wake and Xavier lose Q3 games today.
At least they are adding some potential chaos to the bubble that was relatively tight heading into the week.

Certainly helps a team like SMU/VCU and opens the door to schools like Indiana, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma if they win a few games in their conference tourneys to at least be in the debate.

 

[jncuse]

Wednesday was a more interesting day then anticipated.
Note the % in were as of yesterday, before the games

Last Teams In (# of Bracket in, Avg Seed)
Creighton 96% in, 10.15 seed
Memphis 99% in, 10.29 seed
Michigan 99% in, 10.49 seed
Wake Forest 96%, 10.61 seed - Q3 Loss to Boston College
Notre Dame 96%, 10.92 seed
Play in - Xavier 97%, 11.05 seed - Q3 Loss to Butler
Play in - Wyoming 96%, 11.08 seed
Play in - Rutgers 76%, 11.67 seed
Play in - SMU 84%, 11.86 seed

First Teams Out
VCU - 41%
Indiana - 14%
BYU - 10%
Dayton - 7%
Oklahoma - 6%
UAB - 6%
Florida - 4%
Virginia Tech - 4% - Q2 win over Clemson

 

[SWC75]

I've always said that I prefer to be curious rather than nervous on selection Sunday. This team has achieved that, if not in the way I had hoped for.

 

[jncuse]

Thursday Schedule

Today is when most teams on the bubble start playing
Note the % in were as of Wednesday morning, before the games

Last Teams In (# of Bracket in, Avg Seed)
Creighton 96% in, 10.15 seed - 2:30 vs Q1 Marquette
Memphis 99% in, 10.29 seed - Start Friday
Michigan 99% in, 10.49 seed - 11:30 vs Q1 Indiana
Wake Forest 96%, 10.61 seed - Q3 Loss to Boston College
Notre Dame 96%, 10.92 seed - 7:00 vs Q1 Virginia Tech
Play in - Xavier 97%, 11.05 seed - Q3 Loss to Butler
Play in - Wyoming 96%, 11.08 seed - 5:30 vs Q2 UNLV
Play in - Rutgers 76%, 11.67 seed - Start Friday
Play in - SMU 84%, 11.86 seed - Start Friday

First Teams Out
VCU - 41% - Start Friday vs Dayton
Indiana - 14% - 11:30 vs Q1 Michigan
BYU - 10% - Done for Season
Dayton - 7% - Start Friday vs VCU
Oklahoma - 6% 7:00 vs Q1 Baylor
UAB - 6% 9:30 vs Q3 Florida Atlantic
Florida - 4% - 12:00 vs Q2 Texas A&M**
Virginia Tech - 4% - Q2 win over Clemson, 7:00 vs Q1 Notre Dame


I'll just add there are three teams starting that could possibly get into at-large position if they make their tournament finals, but do not win - Virginia, Washington St, Texas A&M. These teams are certainly longshots
Virginia vs North Carolina
Washington St vs UCLA
Texas A&M vs Florida

 

[jncuse]

The biggest games today are the following:

Indiana vs Michigan
Oklahoma vs Baylor

Two Q1 win opportunities for Indiana and Oklahoma which would immediately put them back in the discussion, especially a win over a "super" Q1 in Baylor for Oklahoma.

 

[jncuse]

Indiana with a big Q1 win over Michigan.
I had checked the score during halftime of the Syracuse game and it was 60-50 for Michigan, so Indiana made a significant late comeback.

I suspect Michigan is still fine even with this loss -- in part due to Wake and Xavier losing yesterday.

Wake Forest and Xavier are even a little more uncomfortable now.

Also **** Duke

 

[jncuse]

Florida apparently is a bit ahead of Texas A&M resume wise.
This loss knocks them out of tournament consideration.

But I think with this win and a potential win vs Auburn tomorrow and Texas A&M is knocking on the door.

Also **** Duke

 

[jncuse]

Q1 win for Creighton should lock them in the tournament. They were in pretty good shape even if they loss.

Big win for Wyoming. Hesitate to call them a lock because the committee is not always that respectful to the MWC. But their chances are good, especially due to Wake Forest and Xavier slipping yesterday.

 

[MSOrange]

View attachment 215412

Q1 win for Creighton should lock them in the tournament. They were in pretty good shape even if they loss.


View attachment 215411

Big win for Wyoming. Hesitate to call them a lock because the committee is not always that respectful to the MWC. But their chances are good, especially due to Wake Forest and Xavier slipping yesterday.

I would be disappointed if Wyoming didn't make it at this point. My mom went there, so that's why I am following them closely. But a win vs Boise State would clinch it for sure.

 

[jncuse]

I would be disappointed if Wyoming didn't make it at this point. My mom went there, so that's why I am following them closely. But a win vs Boise State would clinch it for sure.

They were apparently down late by 6 and came back to win. Huge comeback for them.

 

[jncuse]

Now things are getting interesting.
Entering this game Oklahoma was fifth tem out in the matrix, and in on about 8% of the brackets. I thought someone who had them in was generous.

Now getting a "Super" Q1 win against Baylor will certainly help them.

They are still on the outside IMO, but others may see it differently. They are 3-11 against Q1 teams, but those Q1 wins are against Baylor, Texas Tech, and Arkansas who are all AP top 15 teams.

They will get another shot against a Q1 team tomorrow, either Iowa St or Texas Tech. Win that one, and they may be above the line.

 

[jncuse]

Another good result for a team below the line --

Virginia Tech started the week at in on 4% of the brackets.
A Q2 win yesterday over Clemson, and now a "borderline" Q1 win over #50 Notre Dame.
I still think that leaves them on the outside but they are now in the discussion.

If they play UNC next and win, I think that would put them over the top.
If its Virginia, a win would help but not sure if enough.

 

[PoppyHart]

The ACC is so horrid. Anything more than 3 bids is a gift.