For old time sakes - 2022 Bubble Watch and Pre-Tourney Selection Thread

[jncuse]

Current bracket matrix - suggests its a 5 team for 2 spot scenario - Rutgers, Notre Dame, Xavier, SMU, Oklahoma. If Davidson loses it comes down to 5 teams for 1 spot.

Note - there are 131 brackets, but only 35 updated today and given what happened.
Including both totals below. 35 is more relevant but small sampe

(% out of 35 today, % out of 131 today and yesterday)
Indiana - 94%, 98%
Michigan - 89%, 92%
Wyoming - 97%, 88%
Texas A&M - 91%, 57%
Rutgers 57%, 55%
Notre Dame - 48%, 60%
In / Out Line
Xavier - 43%, 53%
SMU - 40%, 60%
Oklahoma - 23%, 29%
Others with "ins" less than 10% - Wake Forest, Dayton, VCU, BYU, North Texa

Per the consensus anyway, which is not always the same as the committee:
-Looks like Texas A&M will probably get in
- Could come down to 5 teams for 2 spots - Rutgers, Notre Dame, Xavier, SMU, Oklahoma
- If Davidson loses today it would be 1 less spot for those 5.

 

[kirbivore]

Current bracket matrix - suggests its a 5 team for 2 spot scenario - Rutgers, Notre Dame, Xavier, SMU, Oklahoma. If Davidson loses it comes down to 5 teams for 1 spot.

Note - there are 131 brackets, but only 35 updated today and given what happened.
Including both totals below. 35 is more relevant but small sampe

(% out of 35 today, % out of 131 today and yesterday)
Indiana - 94%, 98%
Michigan - 89%, 92%
Wyoming - 97%, 88%
Texas A&M - 91%, 57%
Rutgers 57%, 55%
Notre Dame - 48%, 60%
In / Out Line
Xavier - 43%, 53%
SMU - 40%, 60%
Oklahoma - 23%, 29%
Others with "ins" less than 10% - Wake Forest, Dayton, VCU, BYU, North Texa

Per the consensus anyway, which is not always the same as the committee:
-Looks like Texas A&M will probably get in
- Could come down to 5 teams for 2 spots - Rutgers, Notre Dame, Xavier, SMU, Oklahoma
- If Davidson loses today it would be 1 less spot for those 5.

There's a word for those 96 bracketolgists not updating this morning.

 

[syrBossHogg]

Richmond about to steal a bid

 

[jncuse]

I am having a hard time choosing between Rutgers and Xavier for the final spot -- IF Richmond wins.

SMU, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma are out in my view.

 

[NineOneSeven]

ND sweating

 

[blust2i3d4]

ND sweating

I hope ND is the last one in and Rutgers the first one out. I would be perfect if Wake Forest were to take another B1G bid, either Michigan or Indiana.

 

[Briancuse]

ND sweating

Nd should be in. 15 conference wins and a win over UK. Rutgers played a god awful occ schedule and has awful losses.

 

[jncuse]

Here is my predicted 2022 tournament bracket with one contingency.
If Houston loses today, switch them up with Iowa, and Iowa becomes the #4 seed and Houston moves into that spot. If Iowa wins, I would also move Iowa up to #4. It was actually an easy contingency to build.

There are teams that are travelling long distances -- I tried to keep teams close to home, but did not move teams off seed lines to accomplish this. I am sure there are a few bracketing mistakes -- was checking a I was going down by line but did not do a scrub -- not worth my time.

In terms of the play in's the committee likes to put non P5+BE teams in those lines so I think 2 of San Francisco, Davidson or Wyoming will be in a play in. I ended up choosing Davidson + Wyoming.

One observation on Pod Seeds - it used to be the Eastern Pod Sites like Buffalo would be difficult to get into, and the dumping ground for 4 seeds was to go out West. This year it's the opposite... Buffalo was the leftover pod.

 

[Briancuse]

Here is my predicted 2022 tournament bracket with one contingency.
If Houston loses today, switch them up with Iowa, and Iowa becomes the #4 seed and Houston moves into that spot. It was actually an easy contingency to build.

There are teams that are travelling long distances -- I tried to keep teams close to home, but did not move teams off seed lines to accomplish this. I am sure there are a few bracketing mistakes -- was checking a I was going down by line but did not do a scrub -- not worth my time.

In terms of the play in's the committee likes to put non P5+BE teams in those lines so I think 2 of San Francisco, Davidson or Wyoming will be in a play in. I ended up choosing Davidson + Wyoming.

One observation on Pod Seeds - it used to be the Eastern Pod Sites like Buffalo would be difficult to get into, and the dumping ground for 4 seeds was to go out West. This year it's the opposite... Buffalo was the leftover pod.


View attachment 215597

Why Rutgers?

 

[jncuse]

The way it worked out for me any contingency between Iowa and Houston was easy... they can just be switched between the 4 and 5 lines with no other changes.

But sometimes it doesn't always work out that way. One change results in cascading other changes. But I think it's quite possible that the committee has a 4/5 spot open for Iowa and Houston right now and will flop depending on the results.
For me if Iowa wins or Houston Loses, then Iowa is the #4 seed.
If only Houston wins, Houston gets the #4.

 

[Jake]

The committee re entry tends to lean towards the team with the better wins…because of that I think Rutgers gets in….if they don’t it’s because the committee wants to send. Message about their non conference scheduling practicez

 

[Chris02M]

im guessing with the big ten finishing at 545 ish there not going to take the result into the equation for seeding purposes

 

[jncuse]

The committee re entry tends to lean towards the team with the better wins…because of that I think Rutgers gets in….if they don’t it’s because the committee wants to send. Message about their non conference scheduling practicez

And actually losing on off those really bad gams on their schedule does not help either.

Losing to #319 Lafayette has to be one of the worst losses ever suffered by an at-large. I don't remember anything that bad.

 

[jncuse]

im guessing with the big ten finishing at 545 ish there not going to take the result into the equation for seeding purposes

My thought when I was building my bracket just earlier was lock in all the BIG and AAC teams no matter what they did..

When I was done I realized moving around Houston and Iowa between the 4/5 seed lines was actually done with little pain, so I could see they have a few blanks right now for those games.

Purdue would be a mess to move lines at this point because so many other things fall apart on the bracket. So whether they are a 2 or 3, I have to believe they were locked in before the game.

 

[jncuse]

Here are my current pod seeds. If Iowa wins or Houston loses, replace Houston with Iowa.

 

[Chris02M]

sorry for not being my normal involvedself on the bubble talk this year, between the syracuse team being super disappointing this year and me changing jobs with more responsibilities and work time, i couldnt put the effort in this year. Hoping to return next year

 

[NineOneSeven]

sorry for not being my normal involvedself on the bubble talk this year, between the syracuse team being super disappointing this year and me changing jobs with more responsibilities and work time, i couldnt put the effort in this year. Hoping to return next year

Between you and jn, always fun stuff!

 

[Orangezoo]

Great work as always. Weird to not even be thinking SU in this conversation. He'll, even in 2020 winning the ACCT was a hope before cancelation.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Iowa has played 12 guys. Didn’t know they went that deep. They could make a run to the FF if they run into some good draws. Offense is elite.

 

[MSOrange]

Iowa has played 12 guys. Didn’t know they went that deep. They could make a run to the FF if they run into some good draws. Offense is elite.

They typically play 10 but 2 big guys who are there 11th and 12th guys have played today to combat Purdue's height. Held up pretty well too.

 

[jncuse]

Looks like Iowa is going to win as is Houston.
Moving Iowa up to the 4 seed, although I probably shouldn't because I strongly suspect the committee ha them locked at 5.
Moved Houston down to 5.

I probably should keep as is, but who cares!!