For old time sakes - 2022 Bubble Watch and Pre-Tourney Selection Thread

[PoppyHart]

I don’t this San Fran’s profile is very impressive. I think they should sweat if Davidson loses.

 

[jncuse]

Catching up on a few relevant things from earlier today:

Rutgers lost a Q1 game to Iowa. Per the matrix they were the 5th last team in with an in% of 83%. It was a Q1 loss so it shouldn't sink their chances by any means, but they can't be 100% comfortable either on Selection Sunday especially if there are a few busters. I posted their resume earlier today, sort of like one of ours in recent years (I think 2016). Lots of quality mixed with some extremes.

Davidson beat Fordham - An expected result, Davidson is the biggest at risk bubble buster out there right now. They are on to the A-10 Semi's.

St Louis beat St Bonaventure - As discussed above Lunardi had them with a shot. They had a decent resume if you ignore the NET. I don't think they had any shot entering this week, and they clearly do not have a shot now.

Relevant games going on right now
2nd Last Team in SMU vs Q3 Tulsa (up 3 points early)
5th Team Out Dayton vs Q3 UMass (down 1 point early in the second half)

 

[jncuse]

I don’t this San Fran’s profile is very impressive. I think they should sweat if Davidson loses.

I think they are fine. Could they be a 10 or 11 seed instead of the 9 seed the matrix has them at. Sure, the committee tends to often be harder on the mid-major school vs the consensus expectation.

It would be very good resume for a bubble team.
- They do lack a marquee win which is their biggest hole. They did go 0-5 against Gonzaga (0-3) and St. Mary's (0-2) but those are a #1 and a #5 seed, which speaks to their lack of a marquee victory. But at the end of the day they have 4 Q1 wins (UAB, BYU, Davidson, @ Santa Clara) which is a fair number if they were a bubbe tem.

So the Q1 situation is not great but its not terrible either. But they really have no other holes.
- Very good NET (#24) and very good power rankings (KP#21)
- A very good OOC schedule (SOS #28) and a 12-2 record in it. It's not like St. Mary's in the past who have scheduled nobody OOC. While they did not play P5 schools they still scheduled with several top 100 OOC Games -- Davidson, Loyola, UAB, Towson, Grand Canyon, UNLV, Arizona St, Fresno St. Not many teams have 8 OOC games against top 100 schools.
- A good record in Q1+Q2 games of 9-8.
- Good road record
- Only 1 bad loss

Seem to be a step above to me compared to a team like SMU, Xavier, Wake, Notre Dame.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Man I wish we were in this game. I absolutely would have loved to FINALLY close a win against Miami.

Also I don’t like Williams. Lot of high elbows.

 

[PoppyHart]

I think they are fine. Could they be a 10 or 11 seed instead of the 9 seed the matrix has them at. Sure, the committee tends to often be harder on the mid-major school vs the consensus expectation.

It would be very good resume for a bubble team.
- They do lack a marquee win which is their biggest hole. They did go 0-5 against Gonzaga (0-3) and St. Mary's (0-2) but those are a #1 and a #5 seed, which speaks to their lack of a marquee victory. But at the end of the day they have 4 Q1 wins (UAB, BYU, Davidson, @ Santa Clara) which is a fair number if they were a bubbe tem.

So the Q1 situation is not great but its not terrible either. But they really have no other holes.
- Very good NET (#24) and very good power rankings (KP#21)
- A very good OOC schedule (SOS #28) and a 12-2 record in it. It's not like St. Mary's in the past who have scheduled nobody OOC. While they did not play P5 schools they still scheduled with several top 100 OOC Games -- Davidson, Loyola, UAB, Towson, Grand Canyon, UNLV, Arizona St, Fresno St. Not many teams have 8 OOC games against top 100 schools.
- A good record in Q1+Q2 games of 9-8.
- Good road record
- Only 1 bad loss

Seem to be a step above to me compared to a team like SMU, Xavier, Wake, Notre Dame.


View attachment 215528

I think that after the committee has narrowed down its field to, say 75 teams, they should add another metric for how the bubble teams did against other teams already in the field. It is so misleading to credit USF with wins against non-tourney teams like BYU or SCU when a team like Rutgers has about 6 wins against teams safely in the field.
I remember St. Mary's being considered a lock a few years ago, and they got left out b/c they played nobody OOC and couldn't beat Gonzaga. I wouldn't overly credit USF for an OOC schedule of ASU, Davidson, and UAB.

 

[jncuse]

Buzz is top knotch and deserves respect

10 years ago (last month) and I still remember this troll job by Buzz on West Virginia.

He's a hard working coach. Would not have minded if he had ended up at Syracuse, although I know a fair amount do not like him.

 

[Vorony]

10 years ago (last month) and I still remember this troll job by Buzz on West Virginia.

He's a hard working coach. Would not have minded if he had ended up at Syracuse, although I know a fair amount do not like him.

I’d take him here in a heartbeat. But he’s a Texas guy - don’t see him leaving there or the southeast region any time soon. I’ve always liked him, and his teams are usually solid.

 

[jncuse]

Lots of updates - just finished watching the Raptors beating the Suns. I hate Cameron Payne.

Virginia Tech beats North Carolina. They are right on the bubble line now.

Oklahoma almost pulls it off against Texas Tech. Lose by one. Did refs hold their whistle on that last play. I think it was a good no call.

First Team Out per Matrix VCU also loses to Richmond. That probably does them in.

Wyoming looks like it will lose to Boise St. They are probably still OK, but as I have said a few times the MWC is not always treated well by the committee.

Earlier in the day, last team in SMU had an easy 25 point victory over Q3 Tulsa. But they have to feel the pressure from Indiana and Virginia Tech winning today. They could use a quality win tomorrow (I think they play Memphis)

 

[kirbivore]

View attachment 215505
I'm just looking for bubble line chaos this week, so this is another strong result in that regard.

Despite being in a strong conference Texas A&M only had 2 Q1 wins this year against Arkansas and Alabama. Getting a 3rd win especially against Auburn was big for them,

Texas A&M also had an 8 game losing streak this year. I'm not sure if any team ever got an at-large with an 8 game losing streak. I would say its likely no.


View attachment 215506

Didn’t Trae Young’s OU squad have an 8 game losing streak? They snuck in with his star power playing a factor

 

[JaySU22]

Didn’t Trae Young’s OU squad have an 8 game losing streak? They snuck in with his star power playing a factor

Pretty much, 6 game losing streak, finished 3-9 down the stretch. Got beat in Rd 1 vs Danny Hurley’s Rhode Island

Interesting resume for OU this year. 3-12 vs Q1, but those 3 are big wins.

 

[OrangeDW]

For old time’s sake:

 

[OrangeXtreme]

For those of us who fill in our own brackets as they're read off on Sunday (and admit it, we all do), here's a blank one:

https://graphics.advancemediany.com/2022/2022_NCAA_tournament_bracket_mens_basketball_blank.pdf

 

[jncuse]

Conference Tourney Bubble Buster Analysis

The first week of conference tourneys had no bubble busters - the two big risks of causing one , Loyola Chicago and Murray St won their conference tournaments.

This week my guess is there will only be 1. And that is Davidson losing in the A-10. There is a chance there could be 2, but I view that as less likely than not.


P5+Big East - Low Chance
Other then Syracuse, which has a probability of about 83.7% of winning the ACC tournament its not likely any of the p5+BE have a team on the outside win its conference tourney.

It generally happens once every 5-10 years -- and that is not in any individual conference but all conferences. That being said it happened twice last year -- Georgetown and Oregon St -- which was extremely improbable.

I suppose if I had to pick a conference to watch the most for this its the P12. With only 3 auto bids, its just a lower numbers game for them compared to other conferences. I still see it a very unlikely however that one of Arizona, USC, or UCLA does not win that tourney.

Could potentially be two bubble busters that win P5 + BE tournaments this year -- Texas A&M and Virginia Tech.

It's amazing how frequently this is happening the last few years. I don't think it happened at all in the 2010's.

And in the 2020's we had Georgetown and Oregon St. last year and potentially two more this year.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Could potentially be two bubble busters that win P5 + BE tournaments this year -- Texas A&M and Virginia Tech.

It's amazing how frequently this is happening the last few years. I don't think it happened at all in the 2010's.

And in the 2020's we had Georgetown and Oregon St. last year and potentially two more this year.

And look at Georgetown and Oregon state this year. A combined 9-53!!

 

[jncuse]

Today's afternoon results

Texas A&M beats Arkansas - Amazing run for them. They may or may not be in right now. Need to win tomorrow to be safe.

Davidson beats St Louis - Davidson advances to the A-10 final. Good news if you are a bubble team.

Indiana Loses to Iowa - Indiana can't sleep 100% comfortably... especially if Virginia Tech &Texas A&M win, ad Davidson loses tomorrow. But there odds are good right now.

Dayton leading Richmond by 4 - Dayton was a team not far from the bubble line, but with all the P5 schools making moves this week (Indiana, VTech, Oklahoma, Texas A&M), I think a win today will not be enough. They need to win the A-10.

 

[Alsacs]

Is the ACC a 3 bid league if VPI loses?

I can see only Duke, UNC and Miami as locks.
Wake should be out.
Notre Dame easily could be out.

 

[jncuse]

And look at Georgetown and Oregon state this year. A combined 9-53!!

I only noted the other day that the Hoyas went 0-19 in the Big East this year... 0-20 if you include the tournament.

Given that not many conferences have played 20 game schedules they may be the first school to ever go 0-20 against conference schools in a season. Amazing accomplishment!

 

[jncuse]

Is the ACC a 3 bid league if VPI loses?

I can see only Duke, UNC and Miami as locks.
Wake should be out.
Notre Dame easily could be out.

They could.
I think they get 4 - just a numbers game hard to see all of them missing and who would move in.
But 3 is not an impossibility.

Will post the matrix standings in a few minutes, will be able to see more clearly who would have to jump up to have this scenario.

 

[jncuse]

Bracket Matrix Standing entering play on March 12th

Just a reminder that the Bracket Matrix is not the committee but its a good proxy. There will typically be one or two deviations. Also a reminder that in 2018, Syracuse got in while being on only 12% of the predicted bracket.

There were 104 brackets submitted this morning which I am using below. If you are wondering why the %'s are different than what is in the matrix, it is because I am excluding the 39 brackets from March 11.

Indiana - 97%
Michigan - 93%
Wyoming - 89%
SMU - 74% - Playing in CUSA Semi-Final at 5:30 vs Memphis
Notre Dame - 68%
Xavier - 61%
Rutgers - 60%
In/Out Line
Virginia Tech - 55% Playing in ACC Final at 8:30 vs Duke
Oklahoma - 31%
Texas A&M - 26% Won SEC Semi-Final vs Q1 Arkansas
Wake Forest - 18%
VCU - 9%
Dayton - 7% Losing in A-10 Semi-Final by 3, with 1 minute to go
BYU - 6%

 

[jncuse]

Could the ACC get only 3?

Indiana - 97%
Michigan - 93%
Wyoming - 89%
SMU - 74% - Playing in CUSA Semi-Final at 5:30 vs Memphis
Notre Dame - 68%
Xavier - 61%
Rutgers - 60%
In/Out Line
Virginia Tech - 55% Playing in ACC Final at 8:30 vs Duke
Oklahoma - 31%
Texas A&M - 26% Won SEC Semi-Final vs Q1 Arkansas
Wake Forest - 18%
VCU - 9%
Dayton - 7% Lost in A-10 Semi-Final to Richmond
BYU - 6%

The nightmare scenario for the ACC would be the following:
- Richmond beating Davidson to win A-10 tomorrow
- Texas A*M beating Tennessee to win SEC tomorrow
- Virginia Tech losing to Duke (well that is always cool at ACC Headquarters)

Could this result in 3 ACC Teams?
It would mean 2 of the above the line teams would be out. And Notre Dame could certainly be that school.

That being said if Virginia Tech wins tonight against Duke, the ACC could well get 5 schools as Notre Dame would be a Pick'em.

 

[Jake]

In most years I’m very happy when we are not part of the bubble discussion….

 

[jncuse]

A little more chaos - the 4th last team in per the matrix SMU loses to Memphis.
They could still certainly get in, but getting close to coin toss territory for them.

They only have 2 Q1 wins (2-2 in those games) although one is against Houston at home.

Personally I would put a Rutgers or a Texas A&M over them.

 

[orangecuse]

I think win or lose tomorrow, Texas A&M should definitely be in IMO. They took care of a probable tourney 1 seed in Auburn, and a likely 3 or 4 seed in Arkansas. In my opinion, they would crush ND and also have no problem with VPI. VPI was literally a last second three from losing to Clemson in their first game. I’d also easily put them in before Rutgers and Xavier as well.

 

[jncuse]

I think that after the committee has narrowed down its field to, say 75 teams, they should add another metric for how the bubble teams did against other teams already in the field. It is so misleading to credit USF with wins against non-tourney teams like BYU or SCU when a team like Rutgers has about 6 wins against teams safely in the field.
I remember St. Mary's being considered a lock a few years ago, and they got left out b/c they played nobody OOC and couldn't beat Gonzaga. I wouldn't overly credit USF for an OOC schedule of ASU, Davidson, and UAB.

It was St. Mary's in 2018. And their situation is not like San Francisco in 2022. It would be like comparing a 13-7 ACC team in 2022 to a 13-7 ACC team in 2015. The WCC is much better metric wise this year.

St. Mary's was not close to a lock in 2018. They were in on 87 of 187 brackets (46%) and were the last team in on the bracket matrix. San Francisco is currently in on 99.5% of the brackets and is the 10th last team in the tournament per the matrix. They are on not on the same plane entering Selection Sunday. I probably would have said that St. Mary's deserved to get in at the time because I tend to give the benefit of the doubt to mid-majors, but I would have also said there is a very good chance they will not get in based on how the committee selects teams.

http://bracketmatrix.com/matrix_2018.html

As noted above the WCC in 2022 is way better than the WCC in 2018 because of how the conference performed OOC.
- St. Mary's played 3 "Group 1" games back in 2018. San Francisco played 10 this year in large part because of the way the conference has improved. But also due to their playing a much tougher OOC schedule
- St. Mary's played 9 overall Q1+Q2 games vs 17 by San Francisco.
- Those figures of 10 and 17 by San Francisco are right up there with the lower tier P5 conferences.

In terms of pointing out that St. Mary's played nobody OOC. That is true. And they were dinged for it. But that is not at all the case of San Francisco.
- San Francisco had the #28 Non-Conference SOS. St. Mary's was around 300. St. Mary's played 2 top 100 teams OOC -- San Francisco has played 8. St. Mary's was rightfully punished for it - why would San Francisco be punished for it when its NCSOS is better than most teams on the bubble line.

You can say that Santa Clara is not a very good win , but the Q1 road win line extends out to many moderate teams like St. John's, Kansas St, Vandebilt, Fresno St, Colorado, Washington St, Saint Louis, Mississippi St.

In terms of comparing San Francisco's Q1 performance to Rutgers. For sure Rutgers is better in Q1 quality win. Rutgers is far better than anybody else on the bubble in Q1 wins. But games outside of Q1 matter and that is why Rutgers is on the bubble in the first place. I would find a spot for Rutgers if I was on the committee but its certainly not coming at the expense of San Francisco. It would be at the expense of one of the teams mentioned below.

If you are going to compare the quantity/quality of Q1 wins of San Francisco compare them to teams like Notre Dame, VCU, SMU, Wyoming. The field that ha to get to 68 teams. Not everyone will have monster wins.

San Francisco is also very strong on the NET and KP (22 and 21 respectively). St Mary's was around 30 on both. That's not a nominal difference optic wise.

 

[jncuse]

Bracket Matrix entering Wednesday games

Last Teams In (# of Bracket in, Avg Seed)
Creighton 96% in, 10.15 seed
Memphis 99% in, 10.29 seed
Michigan 99% in, 10.49 seed
Wake Forest 96%, 10.61 seed
Notre Dame 96%, 10.92 seed
Play in - Xavier 97%, 11.05 seed
Play in - Wyoming 96%, 11.08 seed
Play in - Rutgers 76%, 11.67 seed
Play in - SMU 84%, 11.86 seed

First Teams Out
VCU - 41%
Indiana - 14%
BYU - 10%
Dayton - 7%
Oklahoma - 6%
UAB - 6%
Florida - 4%
Virginia Tech - 4%

Fairly crazy to see how things have changed since the beginning of the day on Wednesday.

The Below the Line Movers
Virginia Tech and Indiana have played there way into the tournament
Texas A&M was not really on the radar, but now could get in as an at large
Oklahoma went from not really a contender to at least having a shot

But that also means there were some victims:
- According to the matrix it would be Wake and Xavier who seemed to be in pretty good shape entering play on Wednesday and then had stupid losses.
- Teams like Notre Dame, SMU are much less comfortable right now as well.