For old time sakes - 2022 Bubble Watch and Pre-Tourney Selection Thread

[jncuse]

The ACC is so horrid. Anything more than 3 bids is a gift.

It was clearly a bad year for the ACC but they will probably end up with 4 or 5. And if they get 5 it was more then I was expecting before conference play started.

They have 5 teams wrapped fairly closely around the bubble line. But 2 of those are basically locks right now in Miami+UNC. Add Duke and that is 3 teams that are solid

And its hard to imagine any scenario where all of Notre Dame, Wake Forest, and Virginia Tech get left out. Just not enough teams pushing from below to knock all 3 of them out Have to think at least one of them barely gets in, or if they are lucky two.

But it was clear about 5-6 games into November that the conference was in trouble when they were all losing and doing much worse than other P5 schools and the BE, and were on par with MWC and WCC. Middle of the pack teams in the ACC were not going to fare well this year because of the conferences poor OOC play which would limit Q1 victories in conference.

 

[jncuse]

Look at how teams stood on Wednesday morning, and what they have done
Overall some teams out have done some significant things - Indiana, Oklahoma and Virginia Tech
And 4 teams above the line lost their first game -- most concerning was Wake Forest and Xavier with Q3 losses.

Overall the bubble line has tightened. Will show how the trend has changed later today when the matrix is updated.

Completed games are in bold
Italicized and underlined games are today's schedule

Last Teams In (# of Bracket in, Avg Seed)
Creighton 96% in, 10.15 seed - Q1 win over Marquette (now locked), 6:30 vs Q1 Providence
Memphis 99% in, 10.29 seed - 9:00 vs Q2 UCF
Michigan 99% in, 10.49 seed - Q1 loss vs Indiana
Wake Forest 96%, 10.61 seed - Q3 Loss to Boston College
Notre Dame 96%, 10.92 seed - Q1 Loss to Virginia Tech
Play in - Xavier 97%, 11.05 seed - Q3 Loss to Butler
Play in - Wyoming 96%, 11.08 seed - Q2 Win over UNLV, 9:30 vs Q1 Boise St
Play in - Rutgers 76%, 11.67 seed - 2:00 vs Q1 Iowa
Play in - SMU 84%, 11.86 seed - 7:00 vs Q3 Tulsa

First Teams Out
VCU - 41% - 8:30 vs Q2 Richmond
Indiana - 14% - Q1 Win over Michigan, 11:30am vs Q1 Illinois
BYU - 10% - Done before Wednesday
Dayton - 7% - 6:00 vs Q3 UMass
Oklahoma - 6% - Q1 Win over Baylor, 9:30 vs Q1 Texas Tech
UAB - 6% - Q3 win over Florida Atlantic, 3:00 vs Q3 Middle Tennessee
Florida - 4% - Q2 loss to Texas A&M
Virginia Tech - 4% - Q2 win over Clemson, Q2 win over Notre Dame, 9:30 vs Q1 UNC

 

[jncuse]

Other games to watch today

12:00 Texas A&M vs Auburn: Texas A&M entered the week off the radar but a win over Auburn today, after a win over Florida would bring them back in the discussion.

12:00 Fordham vs Davidson - Davidson losing is the largest potential bubble buster this year

 

[djcon57]

If anything was a positive this year, I hope our win over them knocks Indiana out

 

[jncuse]

If anything was a positive this year, I hope our win over them knocks Indiana out

If Indiana keeps on winning we might get our first Q1 win!

 

[jncuse]

Updated Bubble Line per Matrix - based on 71 Friday AM Submissions
Wake Forest & Xavier have taken huge hits.
Notre Dame & SMU have dropped into more uncertain territory.
Indiana, Oklahoma have taken huge jumps.

Last Teams In
Wyoming - 97% (up from 96% on Wednesday)
Michigan 91% (down from 99%)
Rutgers - 83% (up from 76%)
Notre Dame - 76% (down from 96%)
Indiana - 69% (up from 14%)
SMU - 66% (down from 84%)
Xavier - 63% (down from 97%)

First Teams Out
Wake Forest - 48% (down from 96%)
VCU - 37% (down from 41%
Oklahoma - 34% (up from 6%)
Virginia Tech - 15% (up from 4%)
Dayton - 8% (up from 7%)
BYU - 7% (down from 10%)
Texas A&M - 3% (up from 0%)

Graduated off the bubble Line since Wednesday - Creighton, Memphis?
Demoted off the bubble Line - Florida

 

[Orangezoo]

This isn't bubble talk but it's pretty clear this year will be wide open for someone unexpected to win it all. Auburn getting hammered by TAM in SEC tourney right now..

 

[MSOrange]

Updated Bubble Line per Matrix - based on 71 Friday AM Submissions
Wake Forest & Xavier have taken huge hits.
Notre Dame & SMU have dropped into more uncertain territory.
Indiana, Oklahoma have taken huge jumps.

Last Teams In
Wyoming - 97% (up from 96% on Wednesday)
Michigan 91% (down from 99%)
Rutgers - 83% (up from 76%)
Notre Dame - 76% (down from 96%)
Indiana - 69% (up from 14%)
SMU - 66% (down from 84%)
Xavier - 63% (down from 97%)

First Teams Out
Wake Forest - 48% (down from 96%)
VCU - 37% (down from 41%
Oklahoma - 34% (up from 6%)
Virginia Tech - 15% (up from 4%)
Dayton - 8% (up from 7%)
BYU - 7% (down from 10%)
Texas A&M - 3% (up from 0%)

Graduated off the bubble Line since Wednesday - Creighton, Memphis?
Demoted off the bubble Line - Florida

Indiana just beat Illinois. Huge win for them.

 

[jncuse]

Indiana has very likely played themselves into the field with wins over Michigan and Illinois this week.
Based on the matrix, as of now, they stole a bid from Wake Forest.

 

[Brian Orange]

On a random positive note ... we've totally flipped the narrative of Syracuse being a team that often underachieved during March. It started way before but as recent as 2013 Seth Davis picked against us versus Montana. Totally different now. If we somehow had gotten in we'd be a dark horse sweet 16/final four pick.

 

[jncuse]

This isn't bubble talk but it's pretty clear this year will be wide open for someone unexpected to win it all. Auburn getting hammered by TAM in SEC tourney right now..

I don't disagree with you. It seems reasonable.

But in recent years we have felt the same at times entering the tournament, and the tournament has largely been at the same "chalkiness" level as it was in the 2000s.

 

[longislandcuse]

This PG for Auburn is literally on an old school NBA Jam heater

 

[Orangezoo]

View attachment 215502

Indiana has very likely played themselves into the field with wins over Michigan and Illinois this week.
Based on the matrix, as of now, they stole a bid from Wake Forest.

ACC deserves 3 bids maybe 4 in my opinion. They will get 4 minimum I think but this has always looked like a barely a 4 bid league to me.

 

[djcon57]

Those ballhog guards will cause Auburn to not make the Final 4. Insane that Kessler and Smith dont get more looks.

 

[jncuse]

ACC deserves 3 bids maybe 4 in my opinion. They will get 4 minimum I think but this has always looked like a barely a 4 bid league to me.

3 is a small possibility - but so is 5 I suppose. 4 is likely.
Notre Dame, Wake, and Virginia Tech (especially if they win tonight) are all all on that line. At least one will get in,

 

[Vorony]

If they end up getting in, I wouldn’t want to be the first team to play Texas A&M. Buzz has his team rolling right now.

 

[jncuse]

I'm just looking for bubble line chaos this week, so this is another strong result in that regard.

Despite being in a strong conference Texas A&M only had 2 Q1 wins this year against Arkansas and Alabama. Getting a 3rd win especially against Auburn was big for them,

Texas A&M also had an 8 game losing streak this year. I'm not sure if any team ever got an at-large with an 8 game losing streak. I would say its likely no.

 

[Trueblue25]

Buzz is top knotch and deserves respect

 

[jncuse]

Rutgers playing right now. Probably has the most up and down resume with extremes of any team this year. Reminds me of some of the years recently where Syracuse got in with a so/so RPI.

6-5 in Q1 is very, very good for a bubble team
But 77 NET might be the highest NET/RPI to ever get an at-large.
So-so road record
3 bad losses, especially a Q4 loss to NET #320 Lafayette! Losing to a sub 300 team -- not sure when was the last time that ever happened. Could be one of / if not the worse loss ever for an at-large team.

I would put them in as 83% of the people on the matrix do. The Q1 record is to go. But they will feel a squeeze if they don't win today.

 

[jncuse]

Is North Texas a Bubble Buster - Probably not, but can't be totally dismissed

North Texas just lost what must of been a brutal to watch game 42-36 in the Conference USA semi-finals. They were the top #12 seed entering today on the Matrix.
Are they a legit bubble buster?

They only have 1 Q1 win, but a 6-3 record vs Q1+Q2 teams is very solid.
They will also likely only have 2 Q3 losses after today (Buffalo + UTEP_, since Louisiana Tech will jump into the top 100. That being said those 2 losses to Buffalo + UTEP will likely be what does them in.
They have a NET of 39, and a KP of #43.

If it was up to me, a team like this would get the benefit of the doubt over a middle of the pack power 5 school. But I know the committee never sees it the same way as I do.

 

[jncuse]

St Bonaventure and the NET

About an hour ago Lunardi mentioned St. Bonaventure as a candidate to play into an at-large which seemed off the radar.

But they actually have a very "clean" resume. Some Q1 wins, decent Q1+Q2, not too much bad.

But I noticed the huge difference between NET and RPI of #82 and #43. (Their KP is also #88). They could be the one of the first (if not the first) casualties of the move from the RPI to the NET. Don't think the NET has caused the field to be too much different than the RPI in the past few years, but it is really hurting St. Bonaventure. They would be viewed much more strongly under the RPI.

 

[orangecuse]

If they end up getting in, I wouldn’t want to be the first team to play Texas A&M. Buzz has his team rolling right now.

That team oozes with incredible athleticism, especially that #3 Jackson dude. Dang, he has more athleticism in his toes than our entire roster combined.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Great work here as usual!

 

[bpo57]

This PG for Auburn is literally on an old school NBA Jam heater

At one point with about five min to go he (Green) and the other guard (Johnson) were 2-23 from the floor. Both guys are 30% three point shooters yet they have launched over 300 threes combined for the season. Insane how Pearl let's those two run wild. Two of the dumbest and most selfish players I've ever seen.

 

[syrBossHogg]

Indiana upset Illinois