FSU vs The ACC

[007]

In your hypothetical, FSU breaks even in 15 years, which is longer than running out the ACC deal and cashing in earlier.

Additionally, your numbers are generous. FSU readily admits the minimum buyout (withdrawal fee plus TV rights buyback) would be $572MM, nearly 50% more than your settlement in the hypo. FSU's real break even point is probably 2-3 decades instead of 15 years.

Finally, FSU has no bargaining power. The ACC is fighting their claims. If FSU wins, no GORs are valid. That means the B1G and SEC deals aren't solid. If the schools can break GOR, so can the broadcasters and streaming services. Contracts obligate all parties and are generally upheld in court.

There remains no basis to negotiate with FSU.

Hey HtownOrange I simply wanted to thank you for taking the time and effort to share your obviously educated opinion, reasoning, and legal expertise on this issue. Much appreciated

 

[WoadBlue]

FIFY.

The ideal situation for both Fox and ESPN is for the FL judge to say that the case has to be decided in NC and for the NC judge to throw the case out just on the pretrial documents, depositions, etc., saying that FSU hasn't proved its case and GoRs are perfectly legit.

Why do I say they want GoRs upheld? Because if GoRs are killed that affects their properties, the SEC and B1G, as well. "Nobody wants to leave the SEC and B1G because of all the money they get from the TV contract" until they're offered more to join a conference of just bluebloods. Saban is already on record as not wanting to subsidize Vanderbilt anymore. The votes aren't there to expel Vanderbilt, but if there's nothing keeping Bama in the SEC when this bluebloods-only conference is proposed, well ... ESPN and Fox don't want to get into a bidding war with themselves. As people have noted here, the revenue stream in the future may not be large enough to pay the same amount that is paid now. Much as this bluebloods-only conference intrigues them, neither wants to pay way more in the future for it than they pay now, especially when the revenue streams are a huge question mark.

Exactly. Anybody who thinks that about 10-12 SEC schools and 6 -10 BT schools would not have many major boosters preferring a Super CFB league of nothing but football giants is naive to the point of ed. If GORs are destroyed or even seriously weakened, then that could come to pass rather quickly.

 

[orlandoorange]

Ego

Maybe. I think it's fear of the payment differential that is coming more than anything. Nobody wants to be on the outside looking in.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Exactly. Anybody who thinks that about 10-12 SEC schools and 6 -10 BT schools would not have many major boosters preferring a Super CFB league of nothing but football giants is naive to the point of ed. If GORs are destroyed or even seriously weakened, then that could come to pass rather quickly.

Those schools will not accept 8-4 seasons now. How are they going to stomach 4-8 seasons?

 

[MSOrange]

Those schools will not accept 8-4 seasons now. How are they going to stomach 4-8 seasons?

That will be the big question. Egos will never let people think their school will be the one to drop off, but someone will have to lose in the mega-conferences.

 

[longtimefan]

That will be the big question. Egos will never let people think their school will be the one to drop off, but someone will have to lose in the mega-conferences.

Be careful what you wish for.

Just ask Nebraska fans.

 

[wfschrec]

I think UGA just scored again

 

[zjscuse]

( me being an acc homer) “ this alll bs I’m never watching the cfp again!”

( me after watching fsu’s temper tantrum and following absolute beat down) “ when is Michigan Alabama? Sorry getting my popcorn ready for the game!”

 

[WoadBlue]

Those schools will not accept 8-4 seasons now. How are they going to stomach 4-8 seasons?

Even more money will satisfy them at first. There are not thinking beyond that.

 

[richmondcuse03]

The problem with the race to a 32 team super league is that it ignores all the money still spent on and by the next 32-50 teams. Meaningless bowl games outdraw the best college bball games. The Pop Tart bowl drew 4.3M. Weekly ratings for the regular season back it up too. Do we think the leftover school ratings will be the same? There will be a lot of brands left out that are quite valuable in lots of different ways. Seems like a short sighted decision for a select group of schools to chase more money and in the process, destroy the sport for a lot of other folks. Not sure how that really helps in the long run.

Obviously some schools want more than others but as folks have pointed out, if you shrink the overall pool of money, then what happens? I don’t see how eliminating 30-50 schools from spending money and thinking their teams have a shot at a conference championship really helps the broader fan experience and the economics in the long run.

College Football Is So Popular Bad Bowl Games Are Beating Major College Basketball TV Ratings

College football continues to prove it's king. Low level bowl games are beating major college basketball matchups.

www.outkick.com

 

[GoSU96]

The problem with the race to a 32 team super league is that it ignores all the money still spent on and by the next 32-50 teams. Meaningless bowl games outdraw the best college bball games. The Pop Tart bowl drew 4.3M. Weekly ratings for the regular season back it up too. Do we think the leftover school ratings will be the same? There will be a lot of brands left out that are quite valuable in lots of different ways. Seems like a short sighted decision for a select group of schools to chase more money and in the process, destroy the sport for a lot of other folks. Not sure how that really helps in the long run.

Obviously some schools want more than others but as folks have pointed out, if you shrink the overall pool of money, then what happens? I don’t see how eliminating 30-50 schools from spending money and thinking their teams have a shot at a conference championship really helps the broader fan experience and the economics in the long run.

College Football Is So Popular Bad Bowl Games Are Beating Major College Basketball TV Ratings

College football continues to prove it's king. Low level bowl games are beating major college basketball matchups.

www.outkick.com

Two 32 team conferences

 

[baggerbob]

Two 32 team conferences

They need at least 64 to eliminate State and Federal government from getting involved. Otherwise they could end up in court for many years.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Even more money will satisfy them at first. There are not thinking beyond that.

Not the fans. They don’t give an effe about TV money.

You also ignore competition. FBS does not go away with a Super League. People will watch their alma mater over a 5-3 at 4-4 Super League matchup. NFL works because they have no competition. College has built in competition. Non Super League school games will still be played and on TV. It is a huge issue for a 30 team Super league. That and the fact that it would be very very regional and not national for TV partners.

 

[HtownOrange]

( me being an acc homer) “ this alll bs I’m never watching the cfp again!”

( me after watching fsu’s temper tantrum and following absolute beat down) “ when is Michigan Alabama? Sorry getting my popcorn ready for the game!”

I can neither confirm nor deny whether my behavior may have been similar.

 

[HtownOrange]

Hey HtownOrange I simply wanted to thank you for taking the time and effort to share your obviously educated opinion, reasoning, and legal expertise on this issue. Much appreciated

Thank you for the kind words.

There are several good lawyers on this site and many more experienced business leaders who comment. We are blessed to have so many good posters on this site with good, solid input. I merely try to put it together with my training and experience for the benefit of others.

 

[TheCusian]

Even more money will satisfy them at first. There are not thinking beyond that.

I wonder if the money hose gets turned down at the same time as normally elite programs finish with 3-4 wins and viewership takes a hit if we’ll see cooler heads reign.

“Let’s have 1 tv contract for 64 teams, regionally protected rivalries, and a governing body to ensure fair play”

How good does that sound?

 

[WoadBlue]

The problem with the race to a 32 team super league is that it ignores all the money still spent on and by the next 32-50 teams. Meaningless bowl games outdraw the best college bball games. The Pop Tart bowl drew 4.3M. Weekly ratings for the regular season back it up too. Do we think the leftover school ratings will be the same? There will be a lot of brands left out that are quite valuable in lots of different ways. Seems like a short sighted decision for a select group of schools to chase more money and in the process, destroy the sport for a lot of other folks. Not sure how that really helps in the long run.

Obviously some schools want more than others but as folks have pointed out, if you shrink the overall pool of money, then what happens? I don’t see how eliminating 30-50 schools from spending money and thinking their teams have a shot at a conference championship really helps the broader fan experience and the economics in the long run.

College Football Is So Popular Bad Bowl Games Are Beating Major College Basketball TV Ratings

College football continues to prove it's king. Low level bowl games are beating major college basketball matchups.

www.outkick.com

The super rich and powerful alas ays do very short sighted things. Why? Some do it for sport, for kicks. They love seeing how much they can play demigod. Some do stupid things that are short sighted because they are very well insulated by their wealth. It can never ruin them totally to execute wild plans. It is rick vs reward for them, and they do not care about what they destroy.

 

[Hoo's That]

Not the fans. They don’t give an effe about TV money.

You also ignore competition. FBS does not go away with a Super League. People will watch their alma mater over a 5-3 at 4-4 Super League matchup. NFL works because they have no competition. College has built in competition. Non Super League school games will still be played and on TV. It is a huge issue for a 30 team Super league. That and the fact that it would be very very regional and not national for TV partners.

Exactly. Which Week 10 game stands the better chance of getting more eyeballs, 2-7 Texas vs. 3-6 Alabama or 9-0 Georgia Tech vs. 8-1 Pitt?

 

[IthacaMatt]

GORs are not new documents, having been used in the entertainment industry long before conference TV deals. They have been upheld time and again. Further, UT, OU, USC, and UCLA all attempted to break the GOR and assessed it to not be worth the trouble, within the last few years. ...

Anyway, much has been written on this issue in this thread by several attorneys. You may wish to read through their opinions.

Maybe I missed something here, but if breaking the GOR "wasn't worth the trouble" for these 4 schools, how did they all move conferences so quickly and easily?

 

[oldpinepoint]

Maybe I missed something here, but if breaking the GOR "wasn't worth the trouble" for these 4 schools, how did they all move conferences so quickly and easily?

Tv deals were closer to expiration

 

[IthacaMatt]

Exactly. Anybody who thinks that about 10-12 SEC schools and 6 -10 BT schools would not have many major boosters preferring a Super CFB league of nothing but football giants is naive to the point of ed. If GORs are destroyed or even seriously weakened, then that could come to pass rather quickly.

Yeah, I feel like a college football "super league" is going to be like the proverbial dog who caught the car.

 

[Cusefan69]

Maybe I missed something here, but if breaking the GOR "wasn't worth the trouble" for these 4 schools, how did they all move conferences so quickly and easily?

I believe that USC and UCLA timed their departures with a contract renewal (so no major penalty?) and UT and OK played one more year and then Big12 and UT/OK agreed to 1 year buyout. Big12 agreement also was going into new negotiation cycle.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Maybe I missed something here, but if breaking the GOR "wasn't worth the trouble" for these 4 schools, how did they all move conferences so quickly and easily?

USC and UCLA waited for their GOR to expire. Texas and Oklahoma are not breaking the GOR to leave early. They will receive no TV $ from the SEC next year. If FSU wants to receive no TV money the next 12 years, they are free to leave for just the exit fee. But that would mean making less money than they currently do. It also means their new conference makes no new money, so why add FSU if they add no value?

 

[HtownOrange]

The super rich and powerful alas ays do very short sighted things. Why? Some do it for sport, for kicks. They love seeing how much they can play demigod. Some do stupid things that are short sighted because they are very well insulated by their wealth. It can never ruin them totally to execute wild plans. It is rick vs reward for them, and they do not care about what they destroy.

I agree in part, many of the rich like to flaunt their power ,along with wealth. However, the wise always look to the future in near, midrange, and long terms.

I think this is why most SEC teams are not clamoring to oust Vandy, in spite of Saban's idiocy. To claim dominance a team must beat all comers. The top teams must beat top level and mid level team, we can assume they will beat the low level teams. But the mid level teams are not mid level if there are no low level teams. Thus, a need for Vandy. Also, a need for lesser conferences to supply additional victories to put up the middle level teams.

Without this supply, the SEC truly would beat each other up and likely never have an undefeated champion. As it stands, there are eleven teams who have competed at the championship level over the last few decades. The SEC will need a source for more wins, probably internal and external.

That is why I believe a minimum number of teams is closer to 100 than 64. I think long term, everyone knows they will need one contract to include all bowl series teams, like the professional leagues have. The goal in the near term is to make what you can, get as far ahead and then make the one-contract deal when necessary. Also, at that point, regionalism can prevail and we can get back to local rivalries. Just another take on CFB...

 

[HtownOrange]

Maybe I missed something here, but if breaking the GOR "wasn't worth the trouble" for these 4 schools, how did they all move conferences so quickly and easily?

The GORs were at or near the end of the deal.

The Pac 12 agreement was being negotiated and they were offered $30MM/team (roughly). USC and UCLA didn't like the number. They and the B£1G agreed upon having them move into the B1G when the deal was done. USC and UCLA looked into breaking the GOR a year early and decided otherwise.

UT and OU were several years out and made the agreement with the SEC to join once the deal was done. Then UT and OU looked into bolting early and decided against it. UT and OU were able to bolt a year early because of developing circumstances which made it convenient for the Big 12 to let them leave, both agreed to pay 2.1X the annual TV revenue.

NOTE: HRE has an article alleging someone else will pay the money UT and OU owe, but no actual sources from the parties have documented such. It probably won't be available until after everything is said and done.

NOTE: this why I believe Any team wishing to break the GOR has a starting point of 2.1X the annual TV payout. This, FSU should bargain at $1,056,200,000.00. or $130MM withdrawal fee and $926MM TV rights buy back , using FSU's number, which may be low.