Future of SU Football

[the villager]

Coach Babers has the personality to be a great recruiter or at least his public persona appears that way. If he can’t get better recruits , it may not be the recruiters, it may be other reasons a good player would rather sit the bench in the SEC than play full time for us. I think 6 wins is a minimum this year.

 

[RandomGuy]

Sadly 2020 Offensively was closer to 2016/2017/2019 than 2018 was to 2016/2017/2019. So 2018 was the real outlier. The O hasn't been able to put points up on the board. We have some huge games but the typical game isn't enough to get a W.

Median points

2020
Overall 21
vs P5 17.5

2019
Overall 25.5
vs P5 20

2018
Overall 41
vs P5 38.5

2017
Overall 25.5
vs P5 25

2016
Overall 28
vs P5 28

Figured I'd compare the 18 and 20 defense. Points surrendered.

2018 median
Overall 25
vs p5 25

2018 Average
Overall 26.2
vs P5 26.8

2020 median
Overall. 36
vs p5 35

2020 average
Overall 32.72
vs P5 32.5.


Obviously they were put into a bad spot with lack of offense. I was a bit surprised that the average points surrendered vs p5 difference was only 5.7. No trill, iffy, Cisco for much of the year. Young guys not quite ready, forced into reps. No help from the offense. Still only good for less than 2 FG's a game. All things considered? I dont hate that #. Its actually kind of impressive, considering the offense (median) was putting up 21 less points a game.

 

[Cuseregular]

The spending issue to me has been neutralized. We are in line with our peer schools in that regard. Any kid looking at BC/Pitt/Rutgers is not going to be wowed or disappointed by Syracuse in that regard.

Our school is fine and can support a successful program. We need to figure out on the margins how to improve now and that's on Dino. He needs to bring energy to the program, the right recruits for his operation and to find wins.

He has the easiest schedule I can remember of any coach at Syracuse. Say what you want about GROB but he was harnessed with a gauntlet of games yearly that made things harder. He wasn't a good coach but the excuses that traditionally were the default of why we stink are removed.

We stink now because the coaching of 2019 was TERRIBLE. last year was a mulligan. Dino needs to find that 2018 magic again

he did and his name is Schrader...

 

[TheCusian]

You know things aren't going well when we are in need of 4 OOC games to see if Dino can right the ship...in year 6, this shouldn't be the case.

Also done with all those saying "well we were 1-10 because we had no OOC games". OK BUT we did play the teams IN OUR CONFERENCE. Those 11 games weren't against the SEC or the likes.

All in all, I don't think it's too much to ask for our program being AT LEAST in the middle of the pack of the ACC by now.

We were 2nd two years ago. There was a pretty clear progression in years 1-3. The troubling part was 2019. Keep reading “in year 6” - and it seems to erase the good stuff and be hostage to recent history

 

[SuFTW]

We were 2nd two years ago. There was a pretty clear progression in years 1-3. The troubling part was 2019. Keep reading “in year 6” - and it seems to erase the good stuff and be hostage to recent history

The recent history (years 4 and 5) also show clear progression but in the wrong direction. It is what it is and unfortunately it is the current trend. You can’t just wave it away. Only winning will change it.
Nobody has forgotten about 2018. The success of 2018 makes the last 2 years just a bit more painful.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

We were 2nd two years ago. There was a pretty clear progression in years 1-3. The troubling part was 2019. Keep reading “in year 6” - and it seems to erase the good stuff and be hostage to recent history

Year 2 you could argue was a step back. Same record as the year before and same amount of missed games for Dungey. We subbed a road loss vs 11-2 USF for a home loss to 7-6 (4-4 in conference) MTSU (they only made a Bowl because of us).

Record wise 2019 was the same as 2016/17 in conference. We had the one extra OOC W as we beat all of our cupcakes. 2018 is looking more and more like the outlier.

2016/2017/2019
6-18 in ACC (2-6 each year)
0-3 vs P5 OOC (0-1 each year)
3-0 vs FCS (1-0 each year)
4-2 vs G5

Including the 2 outliers (2018/2020) Dino is

14-33 vs the P5
13-29 vs the ACC
4-0 vs FCS
6-3 vs G5

 

[TheCusian]

Year 2 you could argue was a step back. Same record as the year before and same amount of missed games for Dungey. We subbed a road loss vs 11-2 USF for a home loss to 7-6 (4-4 in conference) MTSU (they only made a Bowl because of us).

Record wise 2019 was the same as 2016/17 in conference. We had the one extra OOC W as we beat all of our cupcakes. 2018 is looking more and more like the outlier.

2016/2017/2019
6-18 in ACC (2-6 each year)
0-3 vs P5 OOC (0-1 each year)
3-0 vs FCS (1-0 each year)
4-2 vs G5

Including the 2 outliers (2018/2020) Dino is

14-33 vs the P5
13-29 vs the ACC
4-0 vs FCS
6-3 vs G5

Not buying it. Year 2 featured a win over #2 Clemson. That's a progression from beating a top 20 team in VaTech the year before. We beat two top 25 teams in 2018. Even Points a game shows a steady progression the first three seasons and then a dip in 2019.

The schedule was a step up in 2017 and we were better:

Year	SRS (How good we were; 0 is CFB avg)	SoS (schedule strength rank)	Record	Best Win
2016	-4.51	#21	4-8	#17 VaTech
2017	1.96	#19	4-8	#2 Clemson
2018	12.14	#57	10-3	#15 WVU
2019	-2.79	#73	5-7	Wake Forest
2020	-12.92	#49	1-10	Lol, Georgia Tech

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Not buying it. Year 2 featured a win over #2 Clemson. That's a progression from beating a top 20 team in VaTech the year before. We beat two top 25 teams in 2018. Even Points a game shows a steady progression the first three seasons and then a dip in 2019.

The schedule was a step up in 2017 and we were better:

Year	SRS (How good we were; 0 is CFB avg)	SoS (schedule strength rank)	Record	Best Win
2016	-4.51	#21	4-8	#17 VaTech
2017	1.96	#19	4-8	#2 Clemson
2018	12.14	#57	10-3	#15 WVU
2019	-2.79	#73	5-7	Wake Forest
2020	-12.92	#49	1-10	Lol, Georgia Tech

Yes our best win was better. Yes our P5 OOC game was harder. But we also had arguably our worst home loss ever. The schedule was relatively the same and we had the same amount of wins.

Clemson 1 vs 5
FSU 8 vs 28
VA Tech 15 vs Miami 16
Louisville 22 vs 24
NC State 24 vs 22
USF 32 vs CMU 93
Pitt 39 vs 46
Wake 48 vs 29
ND 51 vs LSU 19
BC 62 vs 36
UConn 154 vs MTSU 100
Colgate 168 vs CCSU 185

2016 we beat the three worst teams on our schedule and beat the 3rd best team. Our worst loss was to the 4th worst team.

2017 we beat the worst, 3rd, and 4th worst teams, and also beat the best team. Our worst loss was to the 2nd worst team.

Akron in 2009 was ranked 108th. While that is worse than 100th MTSU in 2017 we were a lot better as a team. The 2008 SU team was ranked 104th so losing to 108 isn't a huge upset. The 2017 SU team was 72nd which is quite a bit higher than 100. So while Akron is the worst team barely, that loss IMO was much worse.

 

[tipphill]

The spending issue to me has been neutralized. We are in line with our peer schools in that regard. Any kid looking at BC/Pitt/Rutgers is not going to be wowed or disappointed by Syracuse in that regard.

Our school is fine and can support a successful program. We need to figure out on the margins how to improve now and that's on Dino. He needs to bring energy to the program, the right recruits for his operation and to find wins.

He has the easiest schedule I can remember of any coach at Syracuse. Say what you want about GROB but he was harnessed with a gauntlet of games yearly that made things harder. He wasn't a good coach but the excuses that traditionally were the default of why we stink are removed.

We stink now because the coaching of 2019 was TERRIBLE. last year was a mulligan. Dino needs to find that 2018 magic again

no mulligan---every team in the country had to deal with covid. my concern was also the injuries that occurred in relation to the s&c program,

 

[elimunelson]

We were 2nd two years ago. There was a pretty clear progression in years 1-3. The troubling part was 2019. Keep reading “in year 6” - and it seems to erase the good stuff and be hostage to recent history

2019 will be the season that ultimately gets Dino fired, not 2020. That was a massive step back and I attribute alot of it to coaching. To not capitalize on the season before is unacceptable. Even Pasqualoni post McNabb kept the Orange sniffing for bowl games with Troy Nunes.

2020 was a tough year for everyone. To even consider that a failing by the players, coaches, etc is something I can't do. By all means hold the coaches accountable but to me he gets a pass for it. Just like GROB would have if 2008 was COVID year. Syracuse operates with some degree of humanity that other schools may not bc the pressure isn't SEC level.

However, this year is a new year. If we don't see improvement and a bowl I want a new coach. it's a results oriented biz

 

[Scooch]

2019 will be the season that ultimately gets Dino fired, not 2020. That was a massive step back and I attribute alot of it to coaching. To not capitalize on the season before is unacceptable. Even Pasqualoni post McNabb kept the Orange sniffing for bowl games with Troy Nunes.

2020 was a tough year for everyone. To even consider that a failing by the players, coaches, etc is something I can't do. By all means hold the coaches accountable but to me he gets a pass for it. Just like GROB would have if 2008 was COVID year. Syracuse operates with some degree of humanity that other schools may not bc the pressure isn't SEC level.

However, this year is a new year. If we don't see improvement and a bowl I want a new coach. it's a results oriented biz

I'm with you up until your last paragraph. I won't be happy, at all, if we don't make a bowl this year. But unless the program completely collapses, I don't think I'll be advocating that Dino gets fired. I won't be against it either. I'm just pretty agnostic these days when it comes to coaching changes. That's JW's call, and he'll have to own the consequences obviously. But I'd also understand why he'd be hesitant to start over, again, if we end up with 4 or 5 wins.

 

[TheCusian]

Yes our best win was better. Yes our P5 OOC game was harder. But we also had arguably our worst home loss ever. The schedule was relatively the same and we had the same amount of wins.

Clemson 1 vs 5
FSU 8 vs 28
VA Tech 15 vs Miami 16
Louisville 22 vs 24
NC State 24 vs 22
USF 32 vs CMU 93
Pitt 39 vs 46
Wake 48 vs 29
ND 51 vs LSU 19
BC 62 vs 36
UConn 154 vs MTSU 100
Colgate 168 vs CCSU 185

2016 we beat the three worst teams on our schedule and beat the 3rd best team. Our worst loss was to the 4th worst team.

2017 we beat the worst, 3rd, and 4th worst teams, and also beat the best team. Our worst loss was to the 2nd worst team.

Akron in 2009 was ranked 108th. While that is worse than 100th MTSU in 2017 we were a lot better as a team. The 2008 SU team was ranked 104th so losing to 108 isn't a huge upset. The 2017 SU team was 72nd which is quite a bit higher than 100. So while Akron is the worst team barely, that loss IMO was much worse.

I don't know how you can look at the data and come to the conclusion we didn't get better from 2016-2018 in a linear fashion. You can't claim 2018 as an outlier and then use the MTSU loss as anything other than an outlier. Just bending data.

And the Clemson win was one of the biggest in program history as far as upsets go.

If you want to make the case the 2017 team was inconsistent, I think that's obvious. But teams on the way up look that way.

 

[elimunelson]

I'm with you up until your last paragraph. I won't be happy, at all, if we don't make a bowl this year. But unless the program completely collapses, I don't think I'll be advocating that Dino gets fired. I won't be against it either. I'm just pretty agnostic these days when it comes to coaching changes. That's JW's call, and he'll have to own the consequences obviously. But I'd also understand why he'd be hesitant to start over, again, if we end up with 4 or 5 wins.

It's a bit hyperbolic b/c certainly things can happen to change the calculus. I just think the way this schedule sets up we are in position to make a bowl game if we make the 5 foot putt this year. Usually we have some schedule gauntlet to use as the de facto excuse. I think 3-1 out of the shoots has to be in play and if we can't find 3 wins in conference play, then unfortunately we need to consider options.

Starting over doesn't scare me like it used to because it's not like we are trying to hold a coach who recruits like a madman but can't coach. We kinda don't do anything really good. So unless Dino performs (and my gut says he will in a big way), then Wildhack will probably want to make HIS selection on this job.

 

[TheCusian]

2019 will be the season that ultimately gets Dino fired, not 2020. That was a massive step back and I attribute alot of it to coaching. To not capitalize on the season before is unacceptable. Even Pasqualoni post McNabb kept the Orange sniffing for bowl games with Troy Nunes.

2020 was a tough year for everyone. To even consider that a failing by the players, coaches, etc is something I can't do. By all means hold the coaches accountable but to me he gets a pass for it. Just like GROB would have if 2008 was COVID year. Syracuse operates with some degree of humanity that other schools may not bc the pressure isn't SEC level.

However, this year is a new year. If we don't see improvement and a bowl I want a new coach. it's a results oriented biz

I agree with this - with the caveat of "close losses, playing lights out vs the best teams on our schedule" and 5 wins. Similar to 2017.

 

[Scooch]

It's a bit hyperbolic b/c certainly things can happen to change the calculus. I just think the way this schedule sets up we are in position to make a bowl game if we make the 5 foot putt this year. Usually we have some schedule gauntlet to use as the de facto excuse. I think 3-1 out of the shoots has to be in play and if we can't find 3 wins in conference play, then unfortunately we need to consider options.

Starting over doesn't scare me like it used to because it's not like we are trying to hold a coach who recruits like a madman but can't coach. We kinda don't do anything really good. So unless Dino performs (and my gut says he will in a big way), then Wildhack will probably want to make HIS selection on this job.

That's fair. I completely agree that 6 wins is there for the taking. If we don't get that then Dino deserves all the heat that will come his way. This schedule is as far from a gauntlet as I can remember as an SU fan.

 

[elimunelson]

That's fair. I completely agree that 6 wins is there for the taking. If we don't get that then Dino deserves all the heat that will come his way. This schedule is as far from a gauntlet as I can remember as an SU fan.

I think ultimately sub bowl game we'll be having very bespoke threads on the buyout for Dino and how much the AD can afford to do it vs retaining and firing in 2022 if the definition of insanity takes hold. I hate hate hate that place as well. So if you are on the fence of dismissal b/c it's financially slightly worse, then just do it. 2022 will really suck if Dino is staring at a massive 5 star hot seat analysis.

 

[OttoMets]

I'm with you up until your last paragraph. I won't be happy, at all, if we don't make a bowl this year. But unless the program completely collapses, I don't think I'll be advocating that Dino gets fired. I won't be against it either. I'm just pretty agnostic these days when it comes to coaching changes. That's JW's call, and he'll have to own the consequences obviously. But I'd also understand why he'd be hesitant to start over, again, if we end up with 4 or 5 wins.

I don't think SU's going to be good again. More or less a .500 program. And I believe it's looking more and more absurd that the athletic department tore up the earlier deal and gave Dino whatever crazy compensation package he's got now.

But I hope they retain him as the coach until he retires. What's the difference? He seems like a good man, there's a ridiculous sunk cost in him, and the next hire probably won't improve much on his on-field results.

 

[721Comstock]

That's fair. I completely agree that 6 wins is there for the taking. If we don't get that then Dino deserves all the heat that will come his way. This schedule is as far from a gauntlet as I can remember as an SU fan.

THIS. 144%.

For better or worse, it's make or break for Dino's Cuse career this season.

Need to go AT LEAST 3-1 in the OOC, and 4-0 isn't a pipe dream.
IF we go 2-2, (or worse, ugh) then Dino's seat becomes red hot molten magma.

As for the ACC portion - we may need to steal a road W someplace,
since it's very unlikely we win more than 3 of the 4 home games.
(Wake, BC, Pitt &... Clemson)

Speaking of Clemson - we will really know what this team is by the time we head into that game.
With 6 games played, if we don't have a bare minimum of 3 W's (and really, we need it to be 4), then it could get ugly after that.

While it's theoretically possible to win 3 of the last 5, 3 are on the road, and the home games are BC & Pitt, neither of which we're likely to be favored in, in spite of being in the Dome.

On the positive upside - there's also a path to 6++ wins here.
And honestly, IF the O-line gels, QB play is solid, and we play up to our potential, then 7 or 8 W's isn't out of the realm of reality.

 

[RandomGuy]

There was a fantastic post, with stats, by GoSU96 . While I hope the oline is acceptable this year? What is acceptable in the system? In 2018, they still ranked #109 in sacks allowed.

Whatever your conclusions, these stats are very interesting for the offense as a whole:

Offense - Past, Present and Future

To provide some context that we can relate to here is SU's relative performance to the rest of D1 in the following offensive categories. (This isn't to advocate for the merit of this set of measurements, let's keep the geek storm out of this discussion) The grouping is based on stats...

syracusefan.com

 

[baggerbob]

I think ultimately sub bowl game we'll be having very bespoke threads on the buyout for Dino and how much the AD can afford to do it vs retaining and firing in 2022 if the definition of insanity takes hold. I hate hate hate that place as well. So if you are on the fence of dismissal b/c it's financially slightly worse, then just do it. 2022 will really suck if Dino is staring at a massive 5 star hot seat analysis.

If we don't go to a bowl game this year, there has to be a change. You lose all the goodwill the 10 win season gave you. Many of the new season ticket holders after 2018 will cancel and never come back. Dino has to win this year.

 

[longislandcuse]

My initial reaction to this post was to think "I'm sure the staff is doing their due diligence on this." But then I remember that Desko's staff didn't. And he was under pressure to win, just as Babers is.

I also remember that Tom Osbourne didn't win national championships until he started to recruit players with great ability but questionable character and that Penn State became State Penn when JoPa realized that he couldn't dominate in the Big Ten as he did in the east. Would we want to win with bad dudes? Would it blow up in our faces?

“Bad dudes” is also subjective. I seem to remember not everyone was thrilled bringing in Alton Robinson.

 

[orangencpolice]

Two quick opinions here:

1. People thinking NIL could be the death of Cuse Football are making rash, uneducated statements.

2. Biggest mistake Dino has made, in my opinion, is not hammering the transfer portal. We should be bringing in 5-10 of these transfers per year. That’s where we are at as a program and what we need to win sooner. I’d also add that this is even more important because high school recruiting is not Dino’s forte.

Even before Covid and the transfer portal being wide open, I always believed that we should have tried to bring in more Junior College guys along with transfers. A gamble, yes, but sometimes worth the risk.

 

[MSOrange]

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