Future of SU Football

[Bayside44]

Dino went from (a very competitive) 4-8 to 10-3 so yeah...

 

[bigmike]

how often does a a 1 win team go on the qualify for a bowl game the next season?

It sure doesn't happen very often, but it does happen.

Baylor went 1-11 in 2017 and 7-6 in 2018. and beat Vanderbilt in a Bowl game.

In 2018 Central Michigan went 1-11 and then went 8-6 in 2019. Then lost to San Diego state in a bowl game.


Although we were 1-10 last season, I think most would agree that record was not reflective of the talent on the team.

Would restate your last paragraph to say that the record was reflective of the players who actually made it to the field.

 

[Scooch]

I don't disagree that a number of players have been in the program for a few years despite what may appear to be a deceptive "class" listed next to their name.

But just as we have a player like G. Williams who is listed as a RS-Fr, but this will be his third season on the hill. Other teams also have those players; looking young in eligibility, but with multiple years "in the program". The difference is those guys make up the vast majority of the current SU roster while every single opponent in 2021 has more older guys (Jrs, Srs and Grad) also on their roster. The absence of these older players is what makes Syracuse young in comparison.

School; Seniors (inc Grads)/Juniors

Syracuse; 7/11
Ohio; 26/20
Rutgers; 31/22
Albany; 19/15 (it shouldn't matter here)
Liberty: 24/23
Fla St; 12/11
Wake; 10/19
Clemson; 22/25
Va Tech; 9/24
BC; 27*/27 *18 graduate students
Louisville; 21/21
NC St; 9/16
Pitt; 24/27

All of the "freshman" on the SU roster may not be fresh out of high school, but they have not been in the program for as long as many players on our opponents rosters either.

Advantage = opponent.

Being the younger team on the field is not an advantage and needs to be considered when looking ahead to the 2021 season.

how did we get here? honestly, I don't know. I haven't looked back at the recruiting classes and the related attrition.

Is Coach Babers responsible for this ? Sure he is. So do you condemn him now and let another coach benefit from the youthful talent on the roster? Or do you take a deep breath and give him the remainder of his contract to work thru this? IMO, we sit back and watch these players develop and play their hearts out.

I appreciate the analysis. And it’s a fair point that we may have a larger number of less experienced players than our opponents.

I’ll also add that you won’t find a post from me advocating for Dino’s firing if we don’t make a bowl this season. I’m merely saying that if we don’t then it’s a failure, and I’ll be thoroughly unconvinced that we’re “improving”. He’s had a LOT of time to improve, but it’s year 6, we’re either decent or not.

 

[orangepassion]

how often does a a 1 win team go on the qualify for a bowl game the next season?

It sure doesn't happen very often, but it does happen.

Baylor went 1-11 in 2017 and 7-6 in 2018. and beat Vanderbilt in a Bowl game.

In 2018 Central Michigan went 1-11 and then went 8-6 in 2019. Then lost to San Diego state in a bowl game.


Although we were 1-10 last season, I think most would agree that record was not reflective of the talent on the team.

Don't forget last season's 1-10 wasn't a regular 1-10 because we had no OOC games, hence no freebies. This year we have 4 very winnable OOC games. Is it too much to ask to win 3 of 4 games out of Albany (Home), Ohio, Rutgers (Home), and Liberty (Home) and finish 3-5 in the conference to be .500? It shouldn't be.

 

[Scooch]

I think everybody understands this. But from a "splash of cold water" perspective, how many teams improve by 5 or more wins in a season, especially when they won only 1 game?

I wonder how many teams in college football history went from 1 win to a bowl game the next year. I'll bet you can count them on 1 hand in over 100 years.

I think the likelihood is that we wind up in this gray area of around 4-5 wins. If it's any less than that, no question he has to go. But he's got a lot of money left on his buy out. If he wins 4-5 games after winning only 1 last year, I think they're going to find it hard to fire him.

I don’t think he’ll be fired, unless we have another 1 or 2 win season.

I’ll likely repeat this refrain for months, but one can be critical of Dino without screaming for his firing. I just don’t want people to pee on my leg and tell me it’s raining if we win 4 games. That sucks and it won’t be some kind of encouraging sign that we’re turning a corner.

 

[TheCusian]

I appreciate the analysis. And it’s a fair point that we may have a larger number of less experienced players than our opponents.

I’ll also add that you won’t find a post from me advocating for Dino’s firing if we don’t make a bowl this season. I’m merely saying that if we don’t then it’s a failure, and I’ll be thoroughly unconvinced that we’re “improving”. He’s had a LOT of time to improve, but it’s year 6, we’re either decent or not.

I think what’s weird is that he had 3 years of steady improvement, with year 3 being historically pretty great, followed by a really bad year and then a weird, hard to quantify what was talent, youth, coaching, covid, schedule, etc year.

Maybe he thought he’d be out of here after 2018 or that the players and coaches got full of themselves and stopped doing the things that got them there, or the system got figured out enough, or Eric was just that good … or a mix of all of that.

 

[OrangePA]

Let’s be realistic here. There is no way SU can compete financially or athletically with the top football schools in the US, let alone the ACC and it is quite evident in recruiting and wins. With the NIL now in place, it will be more difficult to right our ship for I feel the major college sports are now doomed to fail.
Would SU ever consider leaving the ACC for the Big East in all sports except football and become an independent like BYU, ND, UMass and UConn? Hoops would flourish again and SU wouldn’t have to worry about beating Clemson or FSU every 15 years. Time for a change is needed for I do not see the football program ever completing on a national level like hoops. There are plenty of teams that would play SU in football and it would be exciting for road game travel.
I am so tired of our losing and want something to be done in a positive manner for all signs are pointing that our losing seasons will continue. SU is now bunched with the lowest rated football teams in America which is sad considering we were 10 - 3 several years ago. It sounds crazy and as an ex Cuse player, I am open to what you have to say. Cheers!

Sorry, but are you nuts?

The University just spent millions renovating the Dome.

And will be spending more on infrastructure.

That spending supports football.

We are not giving up the revenue stream we receive through the ACC.

And, we are not going independent in football.

Next topic.

 

[IthacaMatt]

how often does a a 1 win team go on the qualify for a bowl game the next season?

It sure doesn't happen very often, but it does happen.

Baylor went 1-11 in 2017 and 7-6 in 2018. and beat Vanderbilt in a Bowl game.

In 2018 Central Michigan went 1-11 and then went 8-6 in 2019. Then lost to San Diego state in a bowl game.


Although we were 1-10 last season, I think most would agree that record was not reflective of the talent on the team.

Oh, I agree. There is some talent on the roster. The whole question is culture. We won 10 games, then 5, then 1. Will we have the culture to bounce back, or will there be finger pointing and arguing on the sidelines during games again? Will we have discipline, or will we play OK in spurts, and then give up the big plays that lose games? When big plays happen, will we lie down or will we fight back?

 

[elimunelson]

Sorry, but are you nuts?

The University just spent millions renovating the Dome.

And will be spending more on infrastructure.

That spending is supports football.

We are not giving up the revenue stream we receive through the ACC.

And, are not going independent in football.

Next topic.

The spending issue to me has been neutralized. We are in line with our peer schools in that regard. Any kid looking at BC/Pitt/Rutgers is not going to be wowed or disappointed by Syracuse in that regard.

Our school is fine and can support a successful program. We need to figure out on the margins how to improve now and that's on Dino. He needs to bring energy to the program, the right recruits for his operation and to find wins.

He has the easiest schedule I can remember of any coach at Syracuse. Say what you want about GROB but he was harnessed with a gauntlet of games yearly that made things harder. He wasn't a good coach but the excuses that traditionally were the default of why we stink are removed.

We stink now because the coaching of 2019 was TERRIBLE. last year was a mulligan. Dino needs to find that 2018 magic again

 

[javadoc]

Oh, I agree. There is some talent on the roster. The whole question is culture. We won 10 games, then 5, then 1. Will we have the culture to bounce back, or will there be finger pointing and arguing on the sidelines during games again? Will we have discipline, or will we play OK in spurts, and then give up the big plays that lose games? When big plays happen, will we lie down or will we fight back?

Didn't seem to be a lot of quit in the team last year, certainly not on the defense, which went hard until they had nothing left.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Didn't seem to be a lot of quit in the team last year, certainly not on the defense, which went hard until they had nothing left.

I agree. The defense usually played well through 3 quarters last year. Toward the end of the season, though, my recollection is that their fight-back began ending earlier.

 

[orangecuse]

I think everybody understands this. But from a "splash of cold water" perspective, how many teams improve by 5 or more wins in a season, especially when they won only 1 game?

I wonder how many teams in college football history went from 1 win to a bowl game the next year. I'll bet you can count them on 1 hand in over 100 years.

I think the likelihood is that we wind up in this gray area of around 4-5 wins. If it's any less than that, no question he has to go. But he's got a lot of money left on his buy out. If he wins 4-5 games after winning only 1 last year, I think they're going to find it hard to fire him.

In my opinion, if we do go on this season and win 6 or 7 games, it solidifies the COVID muligan argument relative to last year's single win against 10 losses. The opportunity is certainly there with the OOC schedule being as weak as I can recall.

If we do only manage to win 4 or 5 games, it also solidifies my view of Dino. That being, based on his track record here to date, (taking away the outlier 10 win and 10 loss seasons) that he is a 4 to 5 win type coach in a P5 conference regarding teams of/similar to SU status.

 

[KaiserUEO]

In my opinion, if we do go on this season and win 6 or 7 games, it solidifies the COVID muligan argument relative to last year's single win against 10 losses. The opportunity is certainly there with the OOC schedule being as weak as I can recall.

If we do only manage to win 4 or 5 games, it also solidifies my view of Dino. That being, based on his track record here to date, (taking away the outlier 10 win and 10 loss seasons) that he is a 4 to 5 win type coach in a P5 conference regarding teams of/similar to SU status.

the problem is...we ARE ready to hand out a covid mulligan to babers.

and its not like theres an abundance of optimism.

on a simple level...teams torched us through the air, and we just sent 3/4s of that secondary to the NFL.

babers gets no mulligan from me.

last year was inexcusable in year 5.

he shouldve had a ton of backups just chomping at the bit to get PT, that was basically no where to be found.

the only mulligan i will give is to Tommy & the WRs. i know its vogue to shlit on Tommy, and ive done some myself, but if i just look back at the stats and see 213-337 (63%) 2360 19-5 as a painfully overmatched sophomore, then i can find optimism and a potential mulligan. sadly, he wont have much time to earn it, which is a good thing IMO. i hope Shrader is pressing him hard.

mulligans can go to offensive skill position players who need an OL to work effectively. none will be given at RB because Tucker took advantage of the situation and should press for time this year. and at WR, damn if we are giving Taj a mulligan then he should have a Devonte Smith type year with improved OL and QB play.

so like others have said, its all on the OL and Tommy.

and starting 4-0 while putting up close to 30 every game is what i want to see. hell, i think they need 35+ just to beat Ohio.

im not interested in seeing Shrader develop either. if he comes in, its the same bar...30 every game.

otherwise its just more of the same babers blabbering bullshit of 'Orange is the new Cant Score'.

 

[TheCusian]

the problem is...we ARE ready to hand out a covid mulligan to babers.

and its not like theres an abundance of optimism.

on a simple level...teams torched us through the air, and we just sent 3/4s of that secondary to the NFL.

babers gets no mulligan from me.

last year was inexcusable in year 5.

he shouldve had a ton of backups just chomping at the bit to get PT, that was basically no where to be found.

the only mulligan i will give is to Tommy & the WRs. i know its vogue to shlit on Tommy, and ive done some myself, but if i just look back at the stats and see 213-337 (63%) 2360 19-5 as a painfully overmatched sophomore, then i can find optimism and a potential mulligan. sadly, he wont have much time to earn it, which is a good thing IMO. i hope Shrader is pressing him hard.

mulligans can go to offensive skill position players who need an OL to work effectively. none will be given at RB because Tucker took advantage of the situation and should press for time this year. and at WR, damn if we are giving Taj a mulligan then he should have a Devonte Smith type year with improved OL and QB play.

so like others have said, its all on the OL and Tommy.

and starting 4-0 while putting up close to 30 every game is what i want to see. hell, i think they need 35+ just to beat Ohio.

im not interested in seeing Shrader develop either. if he comes in, its the same bar...30 every game.

otherwise its just more of the same babers blabbering bullshit of 'Orange is the new Cant Score'.

A mulligan implies that last year didn’t count at all. I’ve been saying it was bad but it needs an asterisk or footnote. Some accountability, some grace.

 

[EuclidBred]

In my opinion, if we do go on this season and win 6 or 7 games, it solidifies the COVID muligan argument relative to last year's single win against 10 losses. The opportunity is certainly there with the OOC schedule being as weak as I can recall.

If we do only manage to win 4 or 5 games, it also solidifies my view of Dino. That being, based on his track record here to date, (taking away the outlier 10 win and 10 loss seasons) that he is a 4 to 5 win type coach in a P5 conference regarding teams of/similar to SU status.

You know things aren't going well when we are in need of 4 OOC games to see if Dino can right the ship...in year 6, this shouldn't be the case.

Also done with all those saying "well we were 1-10 because we had no OOC games". OK BUT we did play the teams IN OUR CONFERENCE. Those 11 games weren't against the SEC or the likes.

All in all, I don't think it's too much to ask for our program being AT LEAST in the middle of the pack of the ACC by now.

 

[KaiserUEO]

A mulligan implies that last year didn’t count at all. I’ve been saying it was bad but it needs an asterisk or footnote. Some accountability, some grace.

to hell with that.

Alabama, Clemson, Ohio St and ND all played in the NC.

none of their fans are handing mulligans out, IMO football was played out the way it wouldve, sans covid.

there mightve been some jockeying around the in the bowls and maybe nd or osu doesnt get in, but the year was legit.

 

[Scooch]

A mulligan implies that last year didn’t count at all. I’ve been saying it was bad but it needs an asterisk or footnote. Some accountability, some grace.

I think people are using "mulligan" in the way you're defining it. The circumstances of the year were extraordinary, and while no one is happy with 1-10, we're not suggesting that the awful record was solely the result of failures in coaching, recruiting and program management.

I'll keep banging this drum however, by acknowledging that there were extenuating circumstances, that also means one should not be basing 2021 expectations solely on having been 1-10 last year.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I think people are using "mulligan" in the way you're defining it. The circumstances of the year were extraordinary, and while no one is happy with 1-10, we're not suggesting that the awful record was solely the result of failures in coaching, recruiting and program management.

I'll keep banging this drum however, by acknowledging that there were extenuating circumstances, that also means one should not be basing 2021 expectations solely on having been 1-10 last year.

Here's what I think about the "mulligan" talk.

Every other team in America had to deal with COVID. Every single team.

Every other team had to deal with injuries. Again, every other team.

Did we get more? Maybe.
Were they concentrated in one position group? Apparently so.
Does it have to do with our S&C? Because this has happened several years now.

You could write that off in the first couple years to linemen not having a proper cardio foundation for how Dino wanted to play. But why are so many linemen getting injured every single preseason? Last year may have been a fluke, but not so much, if you know what I mean.

 

[KaiserUEO]

I think people are using "mulligan" in the way you're defining it. The circumstances of the year were extraordinary, and while no one is happy with 1-10, we're not suggesting that the awful record was solely the result of failures in coaching, recruiting and program management.

I'll keep banging this drum however, by acknowledging that there were extenuating circumstances, that also means one should not be basing 2021 expectations solely on having been 1-10 last year.

im willing to forget the whole year happened for the players.

i am not willing to forget the whole year happened for the coaches.

know what i mean??...

im not sure if that makes sense and i know its above many peoples paygrade, but im rolling with it.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I think people are using "mulligan" in the way you're defining it. The circumstances of the year were extraordinary, and while no one is happy with 1-10, we're not suggesting that the awful record was solely the result of failures in coaching, recruiting and program management.

I'll keep banging this drum however, by acknowledging that there were extenuating circumstances, that also means one should not be basing 2021 expectations solely on having been 1-10 last year.

Sadly 2020 Offensively was closer to 2016/2017/2019 than 2018 was to 2016/2017/2019. So 2018 was the real outlier. The O hasn't been able to put points up on the board. We have some huge games but the typical game isn't enough to get a W.

Median points

2020
Overall 21
vs P5 17.5

2019
Overall 25.5
vs P5 20

2018
Overall 41
vs P5 38.5

2017
Overall 25.5
vs P5 25

2016
Overall 28
vs P5 28

 

[RandomGuy]

Sadly 2020 Offensively was closer to 2016/2017/2019 than 2018 was to 2016/2017/2019. So 2018 was the real outlier. The O hasn't been able to put points up on the board. We have some huge games but the typical game isn't enough to get a W.

Median points

2020
Overall 21
vs P5 17.5

2019
Overall 25.5
vs P5 20

2018
Overall 41
vs P5 38.5

2017
Overall 25.5
vs P5 25

2016
Overall 28
vs P5 28

Dang. The last 2 years are the worst against P5 in Dinos tenure. Last year, a full 10.5 points below his 1st year, and 21 behind 2018. A 3TD difference. Wow.

 

[BANYC]

The TNAM site had a profile of Lee Kpogba.

Does anyone definitively know his status?

There was a recent picture of a group of LBs at Buster & Dave.

Was Kpogba in the picture?

 

[KaiserUEO]

Sadly 2020 Offensively was closer to 2016/2017/2019 than 2018 was to 2016/2017/2019. So 2018 was the real outlier. The O hasn't been able to put points up on the board. We have some huge games but the typical game isn't enough to get a W.

Median points

2020
Overall 21
vs P5 17.5

2019
Overall 25.5
vs P5 20

2018
Overall 41
vs P5 38.5

2017
Overall 25.5
vs P5 25

2016
Overall 28
vs P5 28

yep.

Orange is the New Cant Score.

i said 30 a game, that might not be enough...

 

[007]

yep.

Orange is the New Cant Score.

i said 30 a game, that might not be enough...

We're gonna need a bigger boat...

 

[Scooch]

im willing to forget the whole year happened for the players.

i am not willing to forget the whole year happened for the coaches.

know what i mean??...

im not sure if that makes sense and i know its above many peoples paygrade, but im rolling with it.

I get it.

I think between COVID, the aftermath of George Floyd, rampant injuries, roster defections, and more, the program wasn't committed to winning last year, they were just trying to survive. I understand the perspective of those who feel that it was a real season and we should have been better, but I'm of the mind to just flush it and try again.

If we flop in the OOC portion of the schedule though, the heat should rightfully be turned up. It's year 6, 'nuff said.