Grant and Ennis

[cuseatduke]

I hate this thread. It happens every year, multiple times. No one here voicing their opinion about TE's and JG's careers has their best interests in mind. They have their OWN best interests in mind, which is to have a better syracuse team to root for next year. I believe this significantly clouds their judgment.

The argument that staying longer in college means a potentially longer NBA career is complete hogwash. There is zero evidence that this is the case, just look at the top level NBA guys and tell me how long they spent in college. Where do you think you are going to get better development, in the league/NBDL with professional coaches and better players, or in college with weaker players, fewer games, weaker coaches, and practice time restrictions? If anything, in the recent past, staying longer in college means exposing your flaws to scouts and potentially never making it to the league in the first place.

Find me good examples of players that were projected top 15 picks, came back an extra year, and meaningfully improved that draft stock/career prospects. I can think of one example recently, it's blake griffin. He was projected top 7-10 and came back and then went #1. But you can't convince me that his extra time in college is what improved his game to this point. The guy is an athletic freak who was going to develop eventually if he put the effort in. What people forget/don't want to believe is that player development ultimately comes down to the player, in most cases. It is the effort the player puts in to improve himself that determines his fate. You can work hard in college or in the pro's but there are fewer distractions in the pro's and you are cutting a paycheck to learn. I can think of many more examples of guys that came back and their draft stock plummeted, and they lost a year of income. These guys have 10-15 years of income potential from athletics. Fans that suggest they should forgo one of them, and risk injury, for the prospect of improving a few positions in the draft, or to develop their games in a weaker enterprise, are not seeing the big picture clearly. Their eyes are clouded by their own self-interest.

And to be clear, this is in regards to players who are CERTAIN they want to pursue professional basketball and nothing else as a career. Of course there are academic arguments to staying for players who are so inclined. No question. My opinion above is for players who are certain they want to roll the dice in professional basketball. I believe TE and JG are in that camp, and if their goal is to maximize expected income from basketball, it is almost certainly in their best interest to grab a spot in the league as soon as they are able.

 

[chlywtr]

my gut is that they both return next season

 

[orangepassion]

my gut is that they both return next season

How big is your gut?

 

[strumpfasaurus]

I hate this thread. It happens every year, multiple times. No one here voicing their opinion about TE's and JG's careers has their best interests in mind. They have their OWN best interests in mind, which is to have a better syracuse team to root for next year. I believe this significantly clouds their judgment.

The argument that staying longer in college means a potentially longer NBA career is complete hogwash. There is zero evidence that this is the case, just look at the top level NBA guys and tell me how long they spent in college. Where do you think you are going to get better development, in the league/NBDL with professional coaches and better players, or in college with weaker players, fewer games, weaker coaches, and practice time restrictions? If anything, in the recent past, staying longer in college means exposing your flaws to scouts and potentially never making it to the league in the first place.

Find me good examples of players that were projected top 15 picks, came back an extra year, and meaningfully improved that draft stock/career prospects. I can think of one example recently, it's blake griffin. He was projected top 7-10 and came back and then went #1. But you can't convince me that his extra time in college is what improved his game to this point. The guy is an athletic freak who was going to develop eventually if he put the effort in. What people forget/don't want to believe is that player development ultimately comes down to the player, in most cases. It is the effort the player puts in to improve himself that determines his fate. You can work hard in college or in the pro's but there are fewer distractions in the pro's and you are cutting a paycheck to learn. I can think of many more examples of guys that came back and their draft stock plummeted, and they lost a year of income. These guys have 10-15 years of income potential from athletics. Fans that suggest they should forgo one of them, and risk injury, for the prospect of improving a few positions in the draft, or to develop their games in a weaker enterprise, are not seeing the big picture clearly. Their eyes are clouded by their own self-interest.

And to be clear, this is in regards to players who are CERTAIN they want to pursue professional basketball and nothing else as a career. Of course there are academic arguments to staying for players who are so inclined. No question. My opinion above is for players who are certain they want to roll the dice in professional basketball. I believe TE and JG are in that camp, and if their goal is to maximize expected income from basketball, it is almost certainly in their best interest to grab a spot in the league as soon as they are able.

Agreed a lot of of people use the argument if he only stayed one more year he would not have busted in the NBA when in fact most lottery picks bust in the NBA and people just look for a reason why.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Cuseatduke, you have several good points, but also several poor or contradictory points:

1. Agree judgment is hugely clouded in this crowd. Both by our fandom and the insistence that we consider how the player will do in the NBA. How we think the player will perform in the NBA is irrelevant, the scouts and GMs worry about that. And if they fail in the NBA it really has no effect since they are long gone by the time that is known.

2. I am torn on this argument you make about development in an NBA structure vs. a college structure. You say they will get professional coaching in the NBA, what are they getting at Syracuse? I would also suspect that the type of coaching they get in college is more geared toward player development. NBA coaches are managers not teachers. In college, practice time is very limited by NCAA rules, but in the pros it is limited by the actual game and travel schedule. Any developmental coaching a player gets in the NBA is by hiring personal coaches in the off season, Syracuse places it's players in the very best camps every summer.

3. You say the better coaching is the main advantage of leaving and then say player development is up to the player themselves primarily, meaning development will be equal in both places.

Going back to #1, none of this matters. If a player gets advice or just thinks he will go in a Top 15 range, they will leave about 90% of the time, if they are projected lower, but still first round, they will leave 60% of the time.

 

[cuseatduke]

Cuseatduke, you have several good points, but also several poor or contradictory points:

1. Agree judgment is hugely clouded in this crowd. Both by our fandom and the insistence that we consider how the player will do in the NBA. How we think the player will perform in the NBA is irrelevant, the scouts and GMs worry about that. And if they fail in the NBA it really has no effect since they are long gone by the time that is known.

2. I am torn on this argument you make about development in an NBA structure vs. a college structure. You say they will get professional coaching in the NBA, what are they getting at Syracuse? I would also suspect that the type of coaching they get in college is more geared toward player development. NBA coaches are managers not teachers. In college, practice time is very limited by NCAA rules, but in the pros it is limited by the actual game and travel schedule. Any developmental coaching a player gets in the NBA is by hiring personal coaches in the off season, Syracuse places it's players in the very best camps every summer.

3. You say the better coaching is the main advantage of leaving and then say player development is up to the player themselves primarily, meaning development will be equal in both places.

Going back to #1, none of this matters. If a player gets advice or just thinks he will go in a Top 15 range, they will leave about 90% of the time, if they are projected lower, but still first round, they will leave 60% of the time.

I am by no means an expert. I believe that there is more mandated player skill development in college basketball practices than in NBA practices (I am not sure of this at all though). However, based on my random inside glances at NBA stuff from shows/docs I've seen, it seems like players can get one-on-one coaching/assistance from a member of the staff, whenever they want it and for as long as they want it. Which brings me back to my point, ultimately a player largely determines his own developmental curve and how much of his potential he realizes. In the NBA, if you want it, I believe you can get better coaching and for longer periods of time. In college, you will get it whether you want it or not, but the quality is probably a bit lower on average and the amount of practice time is capped. I also believe NBA teams are focusing more on proper nutrition/supplementation these days and colleges do not as much, which makes a big difference in realizing full athletic potential.

 

[cuse522]

I hate this thread. It happens every year, multiple times. No one here voicing their opinion about TE's and JG's careers has their best interests in mind. They have their OWN best interests in mind, which is to have a better syracuse team to root for next year. I believe this significantly clouds their judgment.

I agree with this in general, though I think we should all care how guys do after they leave here - it's in our long-term best interest. That said, this year's discussion is very different given how top heavy this draft class is. I could see Ennis going top 5 next year, but there's no way he goes that high this year. Grant can be a lottery pick next year, but probably won't this year. I wouldn't fault either for leaving, though.

I mean, people here argued that MCW wasn't NBA-ready and needed to improve his shot. He's averaging almost 17 a game and in the mix for Rookie of the Year. I also think you can improve faster in the NBA structure than in college.

Where do you think you are going to get better development, in the league/NBDL with professional coaches and better players, or in college with weaker players, fewer games, weaker coaches, and practice time restrictions?

I think the improvement of the NBADL the last few years is key in this area. A draft pick who isn't getting NBA minutes can go down to the D-League and get minutes. The ability to be all about basketball 24/7/365 as opposed to having to go to at least some classes and do some work is important, too. Now, the travel and schedule can limit practice time, but I've got to think there is still more practice time available (official and on your own) in the NBA/NBADL than in college.

As for the quality of coaching, there are probably a lot of better coaches in the NCAA than in the D-League, but what are they working on? If Ennis comes back and spends 50% of his time working on defense in the 2-3 zone, that does nothing for his NBA career.

I believe TE and JG are in that camp, and if their goal is to maximize expected income from basketball, it is almost certainly in their best interest to grab a spot in the league as soon as they are able.

This is what I disagree with. Let's take Ennis for example. Barring injury (which he can insure against if he wants to), he's not dropping out of the top 20 next year. That means he'll have over a million a year waiting for him. But if he can get into the top 5, you're talking like 3 million a year on that first contract. IMO he has no shot at that this year, but a very real shot next year. So while he would develop more in the NBA structure, he could boost his paycheck more by staying a year and taking advantage of a draft that isn't as deep.

 

[anomander]

Both are gone.

Funny people saying how Ennis game doesn't transfer over to the NBA...Wasn't MCW supposed to be in the D-League by now?

 

[cuseatduke]

This is what I disagree with. Let's take Ennis for example. Barring injury (which he can insure against if he wants to), he's not dropping out of the top 20 next year. That means he'll have over a million a year waiting for him. But if he can get into the top 5, you're talking like 3 million a year on that first contract. IMO he has no shot at that this year, but a very real shot next year. So while he would develop more in the NBA structure, he could boost his paycheck more by staying a year and taking advantage of a draft that isn't as deep.

Fair enough. It is possible TE could go higher in the 2015 draft. But I think people sometimes get too caught up with the word "could". Just because you could improve your draft position, doesn't mean you will. Injury is a possibility (yes you can insure against it but insurance by definition is expensive as hell, you overpay for it or else the insurer wouldnt write it). TE would only improve his draft stock if he showed meaningful improvement year over year. In my estimation, TE is close to a finished product as a basketball player. I love the guy. But he is not some freak athlete with developing skills that can improve a lot more. He is already pretty polished. What exactly can he hope to improve that will meaningfully boost his stock next year?

You have to look at it as an expected value outcome. Coming back could go in his favor, but it could also go against him. He could also go in the same spot, in which case he lost a year of income. Based on what I've seen in previous years with other players, I would expect coming back to not help his draft stock tremendously (it won't be a popular opinion, but I think he could even be a bit overrated by NBA scouts at the moment, in which case he should strike while the iron is hot). Another year could help his stock, but I think the likelihood is that he will flatline or fall if he merely replicates his awesome year.

 

[cuse522]

Fair enough. It is possible TE could go higher in the 2015 draft. But I think people sometimes get too caught up with the word "could". Just because you could improve your draft position, doesn't mean you will. Injury is a possibility (yes you can insure against it but insurance by definition is expensive as hell, you overpay for it or else the insurer wouldnt write it). TE would only improve his draft stock if he showed meaningful improvement year over year. In my estimation, TE is close to a finished product as a basketball player. I love the guy. But he is not some freak athlete with developing skills that can improve a lot more. He is already pretty polished. What exactly can he hope to improve that will meaningfully boost his stock next year?

You have to look at it as an expected value outcome. Coming back could go in his favor, but it could also go against him. He could also go in the same spot, in which case he lost a year of income. Based on what I've seen in previous years with other players, I would expect coming back to not help his draft stock tremendously (it won't be a popular opinion, but I think he could even be a bit overrated by NBA scouts at the moment, in which case he should strike while the iron is hot). Another year could help his stock, but I think the likelihood is that he will flatline or fall if he merely replicates his awesome year.

The key is that I don't think he has to get significantly better to significantly improve his draft stock - he just has to be in a draft that doesn't have Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, Randle and Smart.

I don't look at going in the same place as 100% losing a year of income. From an EV perspective, all those times he doesn't have a long career in the NBA, he's getting the same number of years on the first contract. So the lost year is losing a year of NBADL/overseas income. The D-League income is negligible in this discussion, while the overseas income is not.

 

[cuseatduke]

The key is that I don't think he has to get significantly better to significantly improve his draft stock - he just has to be in a draft that doesn't have Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, Randle and Smart.

I don't look at going in the same place as 100% losing a year of income. From an EV perspective, all those times he doesn't have a long career in the NBA, he's getting the same number of years on the first contract. So the lost year is losing a year of NBADL/overseas income. The D-League income is negligible in this discussion, while the overseas income is not.

Agreed not 100%, but still probably significant lost expected wages.

 

[cuseguy]

Both are gone. Funny people saying how Ennis game doesn't transfer over to the NBA...Wasn't MCW supposed to be in the D-League by now?

I say whatever at this point.

Guys leaving early is killing the game for me.

 

[two3zone]

Both are gone. Funny people saying how Ennis game doesn't transfer over to the NBA...Wasn't MCW supposed to be in the D-League by now?

Two completely different players and two different bodies. Not to mention MCW always had an NBA style of play. Ennis does not.

 

[conradical]

based on the hype fair had coming into this season, what he produced was rather lackluster. and i think that'll be one of the reasons ennis and grant will leave: they saw firsthand that returning doesn't automatically mean an improved draft stock.

 

[cuseguy]

based on the hype fair had coming into this season, what he produced was rather lackluster. and i think that'll be one of the reasons ennis and grant will leave: they saw firsthand that returning doesn't mean an improved draft stock.

I was shocked when Fair was named preseason ACC player of the year. Nice college player.

 

[EnnisEnvy]

Both are gone.

Funny people saying how Ennis game doesn't transfer over to the NBA...Wasn't MCW supposed to be in the D-League by now?

MCW is 6 inches taller than Ennis, exponentially faster and with a better handle and can finish at the rim.

 

[anomander]

MCW is 6 inches taller than Ennis, exponentially faster and with a better handle and can finish at the rim.

ok and people still had him pegged for the D-League by January, so what's your point?

And since when is MCW 6'8?

 

[EnnisEnvy]

My point is they are two different players, one's game (MCW) is more suited to the NBA while one (Ennis) is not and if Ennis is 6'2" I'll eat my hat. FWIW I was not one of those people.

 

[anomander]

My point is they are two different players, one's game (MCW) is more suited to the NBA while one (Ennis) is not and if Ennis is 6'2" I'll eat my hat. FWIW I was not one of those people.

If Ennis isn't 6'2 he is very close to it.

But like you said 2 different players. MCW is more dynamic, but NBA teams will covet Ennis for his ability to run a team. He is an under rated shooter, and will only get better. NBA pg's don't really need to be big time scorers, and very few have the ability to makes plays at the rim on a consistent basis.

 

[Orange2389]

Ennis and Grant aren't ready. While I appreciate the level of coaching in the NBA (see MCW), Ennis simply does not have the body at this moment. Grant could probably stick it our for a few years and get paid. However, next years draft class seems to be weaker. Returning next year would actually be a smarter choice financially for our guys IMO. No one is staying in school for the experience anymore, unless they can't cut it in the NBA. If Grant thinks he is ready to go pro, he's going regardless of his family situation. These are young guys, where money is everything. With that said, I hope and pray these two come back for one more year and realize the business side of sports can be a vicious thing. We'll have the best shot at a title since the 2010 team. Honestly we will be loaded, and should be ranked pre-season top 3. JB could be looking at an 8-9 man rotation with maybe one or two redshirts. I am already pumped for next year. Just once, I would like to enter the season with no injuries/drama and a couple big returnees. Can't say I've experienced that as a SU fan yet. I firmly believe next year is Jimmy's last season regardless. The Marquette situation with Hopkins will tell a lot. But if Ennis and/or Grant come back, Hopkins is the next coach in 2015.

 

[cuse522]

I firmly believe next year is Jimmy's last season regardless. The Marquette situation with Hopkins will tell a lot. But if Ennis and/or Grant come back, Hopkins is the next coach in 2015.

It's hard to imagine he'd hang it up with 970-980 wins, which is where he'll likely be after next year. He should be at 1,000 after two more years, but definitely after three. I agree, the Hopkins situation will tell a lot, though.

 

[HoustonCuse]

based on the hype fair had coming into this season, what he produced was rather lackluster. and i think that'll be one of the reasons ennis and grant will leave: they saw firsthand that returning doesn't automatically mean an improved draft stock.

Awful statement. Fair was named a First Team All ACC player and a 2nd team All-American by at least two publications (out of three that have so far revealed their lists).

USBWA named CJ a second team All-American. Here is the ENTIRE list of Syracuse players who have achieved that honor:

CJ Fair, 2nd team 2014
Hakim Warrick, 2nd team 2005
Carmelo Anthony, 2nd team 2003
John Wallace, 2nd team 1996
Rony Seikaly, 2nd team 1988
Pearl Washington, 2nd team 1985
Roosevelt Bouie, 2nd team 1980

To be complete I should note that Bing, Coleman, Owens, and Wes Johnson made 1st team

In light of the above, your statement is just sickening.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Ennis and Grant aren't ready. While I appreciate the level of coaching in the NBA (see MCW), Ennis simply does not have the body at this moment. Grant could probably stick it our for a few years and get paid.

I think the biggest part that gets overlooked about the college experience is the opportunity to become a winner; to learn how to win games and make plays at important times during a game. You don't get that as the development project at the end of an NBA bench, or on a D League team with 500 people in the stands on a rainy cold Tuesday night.

Part of what's valuable about the NCAA is the dog-eat-dog nature of the tournament. What do players do against the very best players, when everything is on the line? Just like college coaches put more emphasis on the AAU circuit, where they can see all the best players against the best players, although it's in a less structured setting. But you throw the best in a ring and let them fight it out. Every NCAA tournament produces a few "stories" who shoot up the rankings. Happens every year.

That's why players should consider coming back. To become better basketball players; not for specialized work-outs, but for learning how to win under a microscope of media attention. That's a survival skill for NBA players.

 

[EnnisEnvy]

If Ennis isn't 6'2 he is very close to it.

But like you said 2 different players. MCW is more dynamic, but NBA teams will covet Ennis for his ability to run a team. He is an under rated shooter, and will only get better. NBA pg's don't really need to be big time scorers, and very few have the ability to makes plays at the rim on a consistent basis.

Have to disagree. Paul, D. Williams, Parker, Irving, Teague, Curry, Rose, Wall, Westbrook, Rose, Rondo, MCW, Lawson, Rubio, Lillard, and Bledsoe all finish well in the paint. I'm not saying you have to be a big time scorer as a PG but you need to be able to penetrate and convert. I think TE will eventually be better at this but I don't think he is consistent right now.

Maybe he hasn't shot enough to convince me he is underrated. I would be interested in seeing his percentage outside the paint. Rondo and Rubio were not good shooters and haven't gotten very much better in the NBA.

I'm not saying I don't think Ennis isn't a good player or will not be good in the NBA, I just think he will be a much better player with another year of physical maturity, working on his game, and experience.

 

[pearl31]

So basically we're going to have to wait until 4/27 for their decisions - and then possibly until 6/16 for their decisions to withdraw if either/both does declare.