Holding on Wake but Dino Declines?!

[CousCuse]

This one was a tough one for me. You don’t ever like to give teams extra possessions. I understand his reasoning but I always like to get a team to fourth down, I would’ve declined the penalty and made them try a long field goal.

I don’t think we brought any pressure either we didn’t really help ourselves with the defensive call.

If past unlikely field goals made in the Dome against Syracuse were taken into consideration, I would have given him a 90%+ chance of making his career long.

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

We’ll agree to disagree. it was a huge sequence.

I thought we’d lose once they got the first down.

It also clearly screwed up the halftime sequence. No last drive and 3 and out first drive 2H.

Sure they could have gotten 3 but we would have scored twice. And our offense needs time. Ball with 4 mins is fine ball with 2 mins inside our own 10 isn’t enough we can’t throw every down.

 

[SU94]

is it actually an +EV call though. With it being 3rd and 23 and with the defense we were playing on that 3rd down id argue we made a -EV call there since the offense doesnt have to hit a first down to be a success, simply reach the 10 yards back that they lost on holding.

But, there is the quite realistic chance that they gain less than 10, or get sacked, or throw an incomplete pass, even a fumble, etc. Nothing is certain.

And what if they gain 13 or 15 yards? Not much lost anyhow. Odds of a made kick are essentially the same.

Dino rolled the dice aggressively (which is what many here have asked for) with solid point probability metrics on his side and it came up snake eyes.

I can live with this decision and I can be bummed, non-punitively, about the result because nothing is certain.

 

[Crusty]

So is converting on 3rd and 23 but it happened.

Only needed to gain enough to offset the penalty and they would be right back where they would have been had he declined the penalty. Playing prevent almost guaranteed that. Not a good risk reward at all. Just stupid.

 

[Chip]

I'd think that accepting a penalty that takes a team out of FG range is better than letting them kick the FG. 31 out of 32 NFL coaches would have made the same call.

What do I know either, but I don’t think comparing to the NFL coaches is the same in this one. The kickers are better, the defenses are better. An NFL coach facing 3rd and 23 is more likely to just run for a couple of yards, and try to pin the other team deep.

 

[upperdeck]

I really wanted him to say it was a bad decision after the game but he doubled down saying the Kicker was booming them in pre-game. He failed to mention it would have been a career long.

It was a a ridiculous decision and its indefensible. Really irked me when he justified it post-game. Amateur hour.

he was kicking them from 55-60 in warmups and never missed.

 

[sufandu]

he was kicking them from 55-60 in warmups and never missed.

Yeah. Saying he's never made one from 51 doesn't mean much unless I know how many he's attempted. Maybe he just hasn't made one because he hasn't had the opportunity.

 

[Arangeman]

But, there is the quite realistic chance that they gain less than 10, or get sacked, or throw an incomplete pass, even a fumble, etc. Nothing is certain.

And what if they gain 13 or 15 yards? Not much lost anyhow. Odds of a made kick are essentially the same.

Dino rolled the dice aggressively (which is what many here have asked for) with solid point probability metrics on his side and it came up snake eyes.

I can live with this decision and I can be bummed, non-punitively, about the result because nothing is certain.

Do your probability numbers take into account that we were going to play a soft prevent and rush 3? That scheme has a high probability of a 10 yd+ completion. It’s designed to permit it if necessary.

 

[orangecuse]

Yep. Dino defended his decision.

Of course he did. And, it makes complete sense based upon his precarious position as a coach on the "Hot Seat." Had he admitted publicly that if he had the chance to do it over again, he would've declined the penalty, oh boy, that only makes his seat even hotter. He is completely aware of the current extremely wobbly ground he walks on, and he isn't in any position (having very little wiggle room) to question his own decision making. He may be a piss poor P5 coach, but he certainly isn't that stupid. He already has the shovel, you can't expect him to dig his 6 foot hole with it too.

 

[CousCuse]

Of course he did. And, it makes complete sense based upon his precarious position as a coach on the "Hot Seat." If he were to admit publicly that if he had the chance to do it over again, he would've declined the penalty, boy that only makes his seat even hotter. He is completely aware of the current very wobbly ground he walks on, and he is in no position with very little wiggle room to question his own decision making. He may be a piss poor P5 coach, but he certainly isn't that stupid. He already has the shovel, you can't expect him to dig his 6 foot hole with it too.

Why would he coach out of fear? If he were to get fired, he would collect the rest of his contract and buy a placial estate in Hawai'i and become their coach when that job opens up. Where he would do quite well I think. Sounds like he is in a no lose position to me.

 

[Arangeman]

Of course he did. And, it makes complete sense based upon his precarious position as a coach on the "Hot Seat." Had he admitted publicly that if he had the chance to do it over again, he would've declined the penalty, oh boy, that only makes his seat even hotter. He is completely aware of the current extremely wobbly ground he walks on, and he isn't in any position (having very little wiggle room) to question his own decision making. He may be a piss poor P5 coach, but he certainly isn't that stupid. He already has the shovel, you can't expect him to dig his 6 foot hole with it too.

I don’t think it’s that at all. I think he genuinely believes it was the correct decision.

 

[SU94]

Do your probability numbers take into account that we were going to play a soft prevent and rush 3? That scheme has a high probability of a 10 yd+ completion. It’s designed to permit it if necessary.

That was a poor call IMHO and very likely came from White (who is terrific).

 

[orangecuse]

Why would he coach out of fear? If he were to get fired, he would collect the rest of his contract and buy a placial estate in Hawai'i and become their coach when that job opens up. Where he would do quite well I think. Sounds like he is in a no lose position to me.

I don't think he's coaching out of fear, however, he's not a fool, and that's the crux of my overall view/point.

Additionally, he's 60 years old. If he gets fired, he would've attained plenty enough coin from his impersonation act during his stint here at SU to retire quite comfortably in Hawaii. Perhaps, he'll continue coaching, but it'll never be at another school where football is really that important or reputable IMO.

 

[CousCuse]

I don't think he's coaching out of fear, however, he's not a fool, and that's the crux of my overall view/point.

Additionally, he's 60 years old. If he gets fired, he would've attained plenty enough coin from his impersonation act during his stint here at SU to retire quite comfortably in Hawaii. Perhaps, he'll continue coaching, but it'll never be at another school where football is really that important or reputable IMO.

He would be just the guy to put Rainbow football into the spotlight.

 

[Chris02M]

What do I know either, but I don’t think comparing to the NFL coaches is the same in this one. The kickers are better, the defenses are better. An NFL coach facing 3rd and 23 is more likely to just run for a couple of yards, and try to pin the other team deep.

its also different kicking in a dome if outside we probably have him try the kick

 

[Chip]

its also different kicking in a dome if outside we probably have him try the kick

The fear on this board of giving up 3 points to the point of risking more seems irrational to me.

We have people who always want to go for it 4th down instead of settling for 3, but don’t want the other team to settle for 3. We need that math nerd to do a cross sectional analysis for us.

 

[samspann1]

I thought we’d lose once they got the first down.

It also clearly screwed up the halftime sequence. No last drive and 3 and out first drive 2H.

Sure they could have gotten 3 but we would have scored twice. And our offense needs time. Ball with 4 mins is fine ball with 2 mins inside our own 10 isn’t enough we can’t throw every down.

Babers screwed up the halftime sequence by not taking timeouts when WF was inside the 10-yard line, and then taking time out BEFORE the first play of the subsequent offensive possession

 

[OttoinGrotto]

he was kicking them from 55-60 in warmups and never missed.

With all due respect, who gives a crap how the guy was doing in warmups? Making a long field goal is still only 3 points.

Olinda Mare used to pop kickoffs through the uprights now and again. We weren't lining him up for 70 yard field goals.

I know coaches say things, but Dino factoring in a data point like this is bizarre.

 

[samspann1]

he was kicking them from 55-60 in warmups and never missed.

Holding on Wake but Dino Declines?!

This is exactly right. Absurd of Dino to double down. And also, who cares if a kicker is booming in pregame? That's insane. Edited to add: And then to make the defensive play call to sit back? It bottles the mind. I bet Smyzt was booming them in pregame too.

syracusefan.com

 

[CousCuse]

Babers screwed up the halftime sequence by not taking timeouts when WF was inside the 10-yard line, and then taking time out BEFORE the first play of the subsequent offensive possession

He screwed up when he went conservative and shut the offense down in the previous possession instead of going on the attack and putting WF down more points before the half.

 

[samspann1]

He screwed up when he went conservative and shut the offense down in the previous possession instead of going on the attack and putting WF down more points before the half.

I've lost track of how many things Babers screwed up yesterday

 

[CousCuse]

I've lost track of how many things Babers screwed up yesterday

He needs to remember who he is: An offensive first coach who wants to run a fast tempo and score a lot of points with a defense that plays just well enough to keep the other team from doing the same.

 

[rackman18]

I really wanted him to say it was a bad decision after the game but he doubled down saying the Kicker was booming them in pre-game. He failed to mention it would have been a career long.

It was a a ridiculous decision and its indefensible. Really irked me when he justified it post-game. Amateur hour.

also when he was booming them, the kicker didn't
have pressure coming from all around to block them either. This 2 weeks in a roll that he has made costly calls.

 

[richmondcuse03]

I was annoyed with the decision but I at least got the math.

I hated the decision to try the 45 yarder vs going for it on fourth and short in second half. With the way Andre is kicking and our run game we had a better shot at getting two than that field goal. It was a huge momentum shift.

 

[texascpa]

Doesn't matter if he made it or not, we win the game if we decline that penalty and WF tries the FG. Plain and simple.