Holding on Wake but Dino Declines?!

[baggerbob]

is it actually an +EV call though. With it being 3rd and 23 and with the defense we were playing on that 3rd down id argue we made a -EV call there since the offense doesnt have to hit a first down to be a success, simply reach the 10 yards back that they lost on holding.

The situation of plays would dictate the call. We had another bad punt returned to the 31. The defense had stepped up and caused Wake Forest to loose 3 yards making it 4th and 13. Everyone was celebrating fans and team for a great stop. You don't keep the defense on the field after they save your punter.
Even if he makes the field goal, we get the ball back with plenty of time to score, and go up 28-13 at halftime. Plus we were getting the 2nd half kickoff.
You had Wake Forest in jeopardy, and Dino's bonehead decision gave them new life.

 

[Cusefan69]

This one was a tough one for me. You don’t ever like to give teams extra possessions. I understand his reasoning but I always like to get a team to fourth down, I would’ve declined the penalty and made them try a long field goal.

I don’t think we brought any pressure either we didn’t really help ourselves with the defensive call.

Yeah to me the choice of the defense after accepting the penalty was crazy. Completely counter to what you presume the thinking was in pushing them back in the first place. That decision made less sense than accepting the penalty.

 

[Cuseregular]

This was the worst decision in the game… 51 yd fg that IF he makes keeps the lead to 8 at the break getting ball. This flipped the mo and ultimately the trajectory of the whole game. It was just a poor call.

Eggxactly. Especially the Mo part. Colors and affects the whole rest of the game, and even beyond now that has resulted in a loss. IMO it is going to have a catastrophic affect on the rest of the season these last two weeks especially yesterday as I said elsewhere.

 

[Consigliere]

Who cares if their kicker happens to make a career long FG. You’d still be up 2 scores - 8 points. The alternative is what happened, they score a TD and are within a point.

One scenario is clearly better than the other. Force the kicker to make something he’s NEVER made and IF he does, you’re still ahead by 8 points and very much in control of the game.

It was all about probabilities. Four potential outcomes:

1. Decline and let the WF kicker try a 51 yard FG. Kid hasn't missed a kick all year, clearly has the leg strength and is kicking in perfect conditions. Worst case they get the 3, best case he misses and 0
2. Accept the penalty and force an incompletion or sack - Best/worst case - they get 0
3. Accept the penalty and give up a 10-15 yard completion - same as #1
4. Accept the penalty and give up a first down on 3rd and 23. Worst case they get 7, best we hold them to 3.

I'd argue the lowest probability was with option 4 and if we had shown even a token bit of pressure we would have stopped the play.
Highest probability was option 2 or 3.
Highest reward was with option #2 and that is obviously what drove the decision.

 

[samspann1]

It was all about probabilities. Four potential outcomes:

1. Decline and let the WF kicker try a 51 yard FG. Kid hasn't missed a kick all year, clearly has the leg strength and is kicking in perfect conditions. Worst case they get the 3, best case he misses and 0
2. Accept the penalty and force an incompletion or sack - Best/worst case - they get 0
3. Accept the penalty and give up a 10-15 yard completion - same as #1
4. Accept the penalty and give up a first down on 3rd and 23. Worst case they get 7, best we hold them to 3.

I'd argue the lowest probability was with option 4 and if we had shown even a token bit of pressure we would have stopped the play.
Highest probability was option 2 or 3.
Highest reward was with option #2 and that is obviously what drove the decision.

Hartman averaged more than 10 yards per attempt yesterday. It was a bad decision, compounded by the decision to rush 3, essentially conceding a completion.

 

[Consigliere]

Hartman averaged more than 10 yards per attempt yesterday. It was a bad decision, compounded by the decision to rush 3, essentially conceding a completion.

Conceding a completion would have been no harm, no foul IMHO as long as you hold it to less than 23 yards. Sciba was going to make that kick. The decision not to keep the pressure on Hartman, let him sit back there for SEVEN seconds and pick our soft secondary apart was the bad decision.

 

[Chris02M]

Hartman averaged more than 10 yards per attempt yesterday. It was a bad decision, compounded by the decision to rush 3, essentially conceding a completion.

slightly sslanted because of 3 or 4 big completions

 

[007]

Conceding a completion would have been no harm, no foul IMHO as long as you hold it to less than 23 yards. Sciba was going to make that kick. The decision not to keep the pressure on Hartman, let him sit back there for SEVEN seconds and pick our soft secondary apart was the bad decision.

The "harm" is that if you give that QB and those WRs an extra chance to improve the probability of making that FG (or worse, the 1st down and TD). Consequently, you HAVE to hold them to under 10 yards on the extra play to justify giving them the extra chance in the first place. The probability of converting on 3rd-23 is not the relevant stat in that circumstance and should not have factored into the decision making. Playing at the sticks and rushing only 3 compounded the poor decision.

 

[Consigliere]

The "harm" is that if you give that QB and those WRs an extra chance to improve the probability of making that FG (or worse, the 1st down and TD). Consequently, you HAVE to hold them to under 10 yards on the extra play to justify giving them the extra chance in the first place. The probability of converting on 3rd-23 is not the relevant stat in that circumstance and should not have factored into the decision making. Playing at the sticks and rushing only 3 compounded the poor decision.

Sorry, but if you sccept the premise that Sciba has a relatively high probability of making the 51 yaed field goal, then the probability of converting on a 3rd and 23 is the ONLY relevant stat. Declining the penalty likely gives them three. A 20 yard completion likely gives them three. An incompletion / sack / short gain saves us three.
The poor decision was in not pressuring Hartman and relying on a young secondary to maintain coverage for seven seconds.

 

[newmexicuse]

It was all about probabilities. Four potential outcomes:

1. Decline and let the WF kicker try a 51 yard FG. Kid hasn't missed a kick all year, clearly has the leg strength and is kicking in perfect conditions. Worst case they get the 3, best case he misses and 0
2. Accept the penalty and force an incompletion or sack - Best/worst case - they get 0
3. Accept the penalty and give up a 10-15 yard completion - same as #1
4. Accept the penalty and give up a first down on 3rd and 23. Worst case they get 7, best we hold them to 3.

I'd argue the lowest probability was with option 4 and if we had shown even a token bit of pressure we would have stopped the play.
Highest probability was option 2 or 3.
Highest reward was with option #2 and that is obviously what drove the decision.

You are forgetting the game situation. We had a 21 to 10 lead. Even if they make the FG it is at worst 21 - 13 at the half. Plus there were two minutes plus on the clock. The way our o was rolling at that point in the game, excellent chance we would get 3 or even 7 back. dinos penalty accept was one of the all time dumbest coaching decisions I have ever seen. I was cursing the tv as I watched, this is not a hindsight post.

also factor in risk of some sort of a penalty that would give them an auto first down.

it was atrocious and it was a no upside inexcusable game changing blunder.

 

[TheHaze315]

I really wanted him to say it was a bad decision after the game but he doubled down saying the Kicker was booming them in pre-game. He failed to mention it would have been a career long.

It was a a ridiculous decision and its indefensible. Really irked me when he justified it post-game. Amateur hour.

Our punter was booming punts pre game, and then shanked his first one 10 yards. pre game and in game are 2 different things, you’d think a D1 P5 HC would know this.

 

[Cuseregular]

You are forgetting the game situation. We had a 21 to 10 lead. Even if they make the FG it is at worst 21 - 13 at the half. Plus there were two minutes plus on the clock. The way our o was rolling at that point in the game, excellent chance we would get 3 or even 7 back. dinos penalty accept was one of the all time dumbest coaching decisions I have ever seen. I was cursing the tv as I watched, this is not a hindsight post.

also factor in risk of some sort of a penalty that would give them an auto first down.

it was atrocious and it was a no upside inexcusable game changing blunder.

You weren’t the only one cursing. As Texanmark can vouch I was apoplectic after the inevitable third and 23 conversion, based on the shocked looking faces staring at me in our section 320 going on 30+ years now at the dome, saw me act very out of character (don’t normally ever swear or yell beyond cheering).

I had to walk around the dang dome to cool off. As my in game texts to the fine mess crew suggested I knew it would it would likely be a game losing (and season effecting) crap decision. So if it’s any consolation you had a lot of company!

 

[Consigliere]

You are forgetting the game situation. We had a 21 to 10 lead. Even if they make the FG it is at worst 21 - 13 at the half. Plus there were two minutes plus on the clock. The way our o was rolling at that point in the game, excellent chance we would get 3 or even 7 back. dinos penalty accept was one of the all time dumbest coaching decisions I have ever seen. I was cursing the tv as I watched, this is not a hindsight post.n

also factor in risk of some sort of a penalty that would give them an auto first down.

it was atrocious and it was a no upside inexcusable game changing blunder.

Not forgetting anything. I was in the Dome and actually calling for us to accept the penalty. Pushing an opponent out of field goal range in an effort to keep points off the board is the decision most coaches at any level will make more often than not IMHO. Failed execution on 3rd and 23 along with the truly atrocious decision not to pressure Hartman is the aspect that is not defensible at all.

With all the other highly questionable coaching decisions and inefficient clock management I'm frankly surprised this one gets so much debate. Understand a difference of opinion here, particularly with 20-20 hindsight, but people that understand football strategy see this as at least debatable.

 

[newmexicuse]

Not forgetting anything. I was in the Dome and actually calling for us to decline the penalty. Pushing an opponent out of field goal range in an effort to keep points off the board is the decision most coaches at any level will make more often than not IMHO. Failed execution on 3rd and 23 along with the truly atrocious decision not to pressure Hartman is the aspect that is not defensible at all.

With all the other highly questionable coaching decisions and inefficient clock management I'm frankly surprised this one gets so much debate. Understand a difference of opinion here, particularly with 20-20 hindsight, but people that understand football strategy see this as at least debatable.

my post was not a hindsight post, as said, I was cursing the tv once dino accepted the penalty and before the actual play happened.

one more consideration, aside from the risk that they make the first down or there is a killer penalty, is that when you defend the 3 & 23 play, on any d call you will not be defending underneath, so in effect you will giving the penalty yards back even if you defend well long and you taking time off the clock from your o.

 

[upperdeck]

also when he was booming them, the kicker didn't
have pressure coming from all around to block them either. This 2 weeks in a roll that he has made costly calls.

he is like the top kicker in NCAA history.

 

[upperdeck]

I took the penalty because I also was thinking Wake was gonna go for it anyway

 

[690West]

I don’t think comparing to the NFL coaches is the same in this one. The kickers are better,

He is the best kicker in the COUNTRY. This thread is making me sad. I would’ve been pissed if we declined that penalty. People are basing their feelings on the result that happened and not the EV of the decision at the time. Dino FINALLY makes a +EV decision and people are up in arms. I’m at a loss

 

[Chip]

He is the best kicker in the COUNTRY. This thread is making me sad. I would’ve been pissed if we declined that penalty. People are basing their feelings on the result that happened and not the EV of the decision at the time. Dino FINALLY makes a +EV decision and people are up in arms. I’m at a loss

Would the field goal be worth more than 3 points?

Getting 10 yards in 3rd and 23 usually isn’t too hard. Even 12 yards. They could have improved their position to a FG in a range he had actually made in his career.

 

[Bayside44]

Our punter was booming punts pre game, and then shanked his first one 10 yards. pre game and in game are 2 different things, you’d think a D1 P5 HC would know this.

This is their kicker next to ours. (I wanted him to accept the penalty and give the 3)

Nick Sciba - Football - Wake Forest University Athletics

Nick Sciba (4) K - Career Accolades NCAA, ACC and Wake Forest record holder with 34 consecutive made field goals Most accurate kicker in NCAA, ACC and Wake ...

godeacs.com

 

[TheHaze315]

This is their kicker next to ours. (I wanted him to accept the penalty and give the 3)

Nick Sciba - Football - Wake Forest University Athletics

Nick Sciba (4) K - Career Accolades NCAA, ACC and Wake Forest record holder with 34 consecutive made field goals Most accurate kicker in NCAA, ACC and Wake ...

godeacs.com

He’s a good kicker, but that doesn’t change my stance. Make him set a new career long by 5 yards.

 

[Bayside44]

He’s a good kicker, but that doesn’t change my stance. Make him set a new career long by 5 yards.

Agreed I thought he should kick it (and likely get it) and get the ball back with time on the clock for a 2 for 1.

I get what Dino said but found it overthought.

 

[dollarbill44]

I'd think that accepting a penalty that takes a team out of FG range is better than letting them kick the FG. 31 out of 32 NFL coaches would have made the same call.

What do I know?

I always thought that if you had a man on 2nd base, you bunted him over to 3rd. But all the analytics people tell me that I'm wrong. You have a better chance of scoring from 2nd with 0 outs than you do of scoring from 3rd with 1 out.

You can't predict baseball. Or football.

Enough with the baseball analogies. They don't fit.

 

[samspann1]

he is like the top kicker in NCAA history.

Who'd never made a FG longer than 50 yards in a college game.

 

[samspann1]

He is the best kicker in the COUNTRY. This thread is making me sad. I would’ve been pissed if we declined that penalty. People are basing their feelings on the result that happened and not the EV of the decision at the time. Dino FINALLY makes a +EV decision and people are up in arms. I’m at a loss

what's his career long?

 

[690West]

what's his career long?

In my opinion his career long would’ve been the FG he would’ve split the uprights with if Dino declined.