The only way certain people will be happy is if these guys are in the top 50. Nothing else matters and it doesn’t matter how good they end up.
I mean ... stars aren't perfectly predictive and I'd be the first to point out that we've gotten some top-100 gems (e.g., Tyler Lydon). The difference now is that, whereas historically we've mixed developmental players with 1 or 2 blue chippers, the blue chippers are gone. I'm not even talking about top-10/15 players that we used to have a legitimate shot at. I'm referring to top 25-40 kids. This year, for example, we have a crew of long-lead-time players with potential but not the ability to make immediate contributions. That is a function of recruiting outcomes ... as it generally has been in the past.
Consider the last 10 years. In the Spring of 2011 we made it to the NCAA 3rd round on the backs of 2 previously recruited 5*'s - Fab and Dion (from 2010). That fall (2011), we hauled in 2 more 5*'s in Rak and MCW and made the elite 8 in the Spring of 2012. The next fall (2012) we reeled in 5* DC and top-50 Grant and in the Spring of 2013 we made the Final Four. In the fall of 2013 we got 5* Ennis and 2 4*'s (BJ and Roberson) and made the NCAA 3rd round in the Spring of 2014. By that fall (2014), however, Ennis had jumped and we were in the midst of NCAA violations. The staff brought in 5* Mcullough ... but he was hurt mid-season. The following Spring (2015) we still had 5* Rak (leading scorer), but we struggled to an 18-13 record with a lot of roster turmoil and opted out of the tournament voluntarily (unlikely we would have received an at-large bid).
Recruiting was affected by the NCAA problems - we lost a 5* center, and a couple players transferred. Rak also graduated. Despite the adversity, the staff was able to bring in high 4* Richardson (34), Lydon (72) and Howard (79)(using 2-4-7 numbers). This new group took time to develop and lost a bunch of league games (.500 in conference), but by March (2016) we got in the NCAA and clawed our way to the FF - through (5*) DC's rebounding, Lydon's versatility at PF and clutch plays by MR in the regional final against UVA.
Then in the fall of 2016, recruiting slipped. MR had jumped and fans were hopeful - we still had DC on the roster, plus a grad. transfer in AW3 and high 4* in Battle (34), Moyer (66) and 6'10 TT (74). But by the next Spring (2017), both (5*) Coleman and center 7'2 Chukwu were injured. Lydon wound up having to play a lot of center, TT played no D, and we went 19-15 and missed the NCAA's. By then the program's most recent 5* recruit (McCullough in 2014) was long gone and there was one healthy high 4* on the roster (TB).
Since then - a period of three+ recruiting cycles - we have brought in 0 5* players, 0 top-50 players and only two top-100 players (Goodine, Carey - not counting #'s 96 and 99 in the 2020 class who are verbals). In the 2017-18 season, after landing Hughes (3* transfer who sat out), MD (111), Sid (190), Brissett (137)(gone) and HoWash (160), we did make an improbable run to the Sweet 16 (Spring of 2018), relying on high-4* Battle, Brissett, Chukwu and a tough zone. But the following fall (2018), we brought in only one kid in the top-100 (Carey 61), with Bras (151) and BB (349) and regressed to mediocrity with a regular season record of 20-14. We won a play-in spot in the NCAA's, but lost in the 1st round (without PG Howard) despite having Battle back and Chukwu in the middle. This fall, once again we have no 5*'s on the roster. Our last top-50/high 4* (TB) is gone. We don't have any incoming top-50 kids and only one freshmen made the top-100 (Goodine - 97). Besides him, our recruits were QQ (122), JG3 (201) and Edwards (197). So at the current time we have no 5*'s, no high-4*'s and only 2 players in the top 100. This reveals a steady drop in recruiting over the last decade. NCAA turmoil from 2013 to 2015 undoubtedly hurt us. And it's likely that recruiting restrictions (from 2015-17) played a role in ending our string of 5 stars. But the trend was arguably underway before the sanctions and has continued well past NCAA restrictions.
Make no mistake - I like having developmental guys on the roster. Who doesn't root for home-state champion JG3 and Bras (who can shoot and jump)? Carey's athleticism is off the charts (injured/RS). Guerrier will obviously be good and seems underrated. Edwards and Goodine are oozing with potential. And Buddy - I mean - it's fantastic to see him in Orange and I enjoy watching him play despite recent struggles. Kid is lights-out as a catch and shoot 2-guard. But with Hughes being the only guy on the team who can create his own offense, guys like Buddy and JG3 are being asked to play beyond their maturity and abilities.
The fact is that over time we play like we recruit. Failing to bring in a healthy mix of high-4 or 5* players with developmental guys (especially over the last 3 years) has dragged the program below its national stature. This year in particular, we look stunningly overmatched in games against OOC opponents. Conference outcomes could be worse even in a weak ACC bottom-half. There's nothing wrong with recognizing this trend, accepting it and hoping JB/JW do something about it. In the meantime, I'll keep watching and hoping our young players come along as quickly as possible.
