IF the ACC breaks up, what are the likely outcomes for Syracuse?

[IthacaMatt]

Why would WV be a lock to join? They have no incentive to leave the B12. Same for UConn should they join the B12.

The problem with the Big East hybrid was the BBall schools having equal power. If the ACC is 10 FB to 3 BBall that won’t be the case. Plus in today’s environment the BBall schools will know their role. Also you had little BBall schools who didn’t even belong in the Big East in the first place. It was a joke that the Big East was run by Providence guys the whole time.

If WVU played in a conference with Pitt, Cincinnati, Louisville, Va Tech, Syracuse, Boston College, Temple - doesn't that look like (a) they would save substantially on travel costs, and (b) renew old rivalries? That helps recruiting, and it helps the product on the field / court when there is actual history between the opponents.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

If WVU played in a conference with Pitt, Cincinnati, Louisville, Va Tech, Syracuse, Boston College, Temple - doesn't that look like (a) they would save substantially on travel costs, and (b) renew old rivalries? That helps recruiting, and it helps the product on the field / court when there is actual history between the opponents.

By the time any of this happens, WV will have been with the B12 for 25 years. They won't remember the old Big East.

They are already in a conference with Cincy.

VA Tech will likely be gone to the SEC.

Louisville will want to be in the B12.

WV fans despise the ACC.

The B12 will be perceived to be the better conference by then.

They will have to pay an exit fee.

 

[IthacaMatt]

By the time any of this happens, WV will have been with the B12 for 25 years. They won't remember the old Big East.

They are already in a conference with Cincy.

VA Tech will likely be gone to the SEC.

Louisville will want to be in the B12.

WV fans despise the ACC.

The B12 will be perceived to be the better conference by then.

They will have to pay an exit fee.

The SEC can't take 5 teams. It won't be a conference anymore. Va. Tech won't make their top 2, which is all they are likely to add, if at all.

I don't know that being in the Big 12 is a great long-term fit from an expense and recruiting standpoint. You may disagree, but if the ACC has open seats at the table, and Duke is still in the league, and there were a lot of familiar, regionally contiguous programs to play, then a lot of teams are going to want to be part of that league.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

The SEC can't take 5 teams. It won't be a conference anymore. Va. Tech won't make their top 2, which is all they are likely to add, if at all.

I don't know that being in the Big 12 is a great long-term fit from an expense and recruiting standpoint. You may disagree, but if the ACC has open seats at the table, and Duke is still in the league, and there were a lot of familiar, regionally contiguous programs to play, then a lot of teams are going to want to be part of that league.

The premise was the M7 are gone, hence the open spots.

FSU+Clemson+VT+NC State = 4.

If your premise is only the 1st two leave, why add any teams to the ACC? Especially a non like school? They can stay at 12.

 

[IthacaMatt]

The premise was the M7 are gone, hence the open spots.

FSU+Clemson+VT+NC State = 4.

If your premise is only the 1st two leave, why add any teams to the ACC? Especially a non like school? They can stay at 12.

My premise is that the SEC would only take 2 ACC schools, not 4. Va Tech & NC State are nothing but mouths to feed. Never happen.

The Big 10 is probably only interested in UNC and UVa - state research institutions. Duke's not a research consortium school, I don't believe. And I don't think the Big 10 wants 4 more teams either, unless teams 3 and 4 are Duke and Notre Dame. That would move the needle, but Notre Dame isn't going anywhere.

The Big 12 is on just as shaky ground as the ACC. They almost folded a couple years ago, until ESPN propped them up with a big shiny new contract. The Big 12 is just as likely to be blown up again as the ACC.

So, then where does that leave those eastern "outliers" from the Big 12? If there are 2 or 4 open spots in the ACC, and the Big 10 is full, and the SEC is full, then are they going to prefer to stay in the Big 12, or maybe reconnect to a more sustainable model, and return to playing more regional, traditional rivals like some have done in the Big East.

And then factor in that the payouts on these contracts may go down in the future.
Then what happens?

 

[IthacaMatt]

By the time any of this happens, WV will have been with the B12 for 25 years. They won't remember the old Big East.

They are already in a conference with Cincy.

VA Tech will likely be gone to the SEC.

Louisville will want to be in the B12.

WV fans despise the ACC.

The B12 will be perceived to be the better conference by then.

They will have to pay an exit fee.

One other point to make - many leagues have been hit in the last 10-20 years of expansion. Leagues that have reconstituted around regional rivals appear more stable to me than far-flung cross country "sports alliances" that lack actual rivalries.

 

[SWC75]

Northeastern would work but too many schools are no longer available (Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers).

An original Big East plus 2 additional schools to get to 10 would work but again too many schools won't likely be available (Rutgers, WV, and ACC M7s Miami, VA Tech).

The non ACC M7s should stick together and rebuild the ACC. They would be better off financially for at least a dozen years if not more.

Of the non ACC M7s BC, SU, Pitt, Duke, Wake, GA Tech are all very similar academic schools. They all have small FB fan bases and struggle to compete NIL wise in FB. You also have Notre Dame who fits with those schools in many ways. IMO it is in everyones best interest to commit to each other. All 7 of the above are better off rebuilding the ACC than finding a new home in the B12 or AAC.

The other non ACC M7 is Louisville, who doesn't really fit with the other schools academically and is not Eastern. If they stayed in the ACC you can have a kick ass BBall league. But I think their ego takes them to the B12.

So the ACC will need to add 4 more schools. If you look at a map the FBS playing Atlantic holes are Florida, South Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, Connecticut.

The best available choice in Florida IMO is FAU. South Carolina only has Coastal Carolina and they aren't worth adding IMO. The best available choice in Virginia IMO is James Madison. There are no available full sport schools in Maryland nor New Jersey. In Connecticut you have UConn (for now at least).

If you add those 3 schools and Louisville stays, you are all set with 10 schools in FB and 11 in BBall. If Louisville leaves, then you will need one more school. So looking at available brands and markets your choices are down to USF and Temple. USF doesn't fit with the other schools. If you want to add Temple, you might as well consider Villanova.

Villanova would be the better fit with the other schools, and have the better BBall brand. It also hurts your main TV and talent competitor in Northeastern BBall as the Big East would lose its two most successful programs (UConn).

So IMO it would be best for ND, BC, SU, Pitt, Duke, WF, GT to stick together and add Florida Atlantic, James Madison, Villanova, and UConn.

In FB you actually have a legit shot at making the playoffs. Yes, it is a little weak as a conference but it is still likely to be the 4th best. Is being in the 3rd best with no shot at the playoffs really better?

That is a heck of a BBall league. You have the potential to be the best conference.

It would be great to play everyone in FB and everyone twice in BBall. That is what a conference is supposed to be. You also have good Thanksgiving weekend FB matchups: BC vs UConn, SU vs Pitt, Nova vs JMU, Duke vs Wake, GA Tech vs FAU.


If you go past 10 teams, you can consider going the hybrid route. Adding Army and Navy in FB adds brand value and gets you into MD, a missing state. Then you can have a 7 + 2/2 scheduling model. So over 4 years you play 7 teams 4x (2H/2A) and 4 teams 2x (1H/1A). Plus you get ND close to every other year.

Then you can add non FB playing Georgetown and St Johns. That would completely kill the Big East in the Northeast. Meaning the ACC would control all of Northeastern BBall, which has to add plenty of $ for TV. Scheduling you can go 4 + 4/4 to play your 20 games. So 4 teams H&A yearly, then rotate the other 8 teams with 4 H&A and 4 H or A. Over 4 years you play 4 teams 8x (4H/4A) and 8 teams 6x (3H/3A).

If the ACC M7s do leave in 10 years, how is the above not SU's (and those other non ACC M7s) best case scenario? You are in an Eastern conference with traditional rivals and like minded schools, have a legit shot at the FB playoffs, and have the best BBall league.

We don't know when this will happen or who might be available. Will Maryland and Rutgers be 'raptured' just because they are already in the Big 10?

 

[kcsu]

Northeastern would work but too many schools are no longer available (Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers).

An original Big East plus 2 additional schools to get to 10 would work but again too many schools won't likely be available (Rutgers, WV, and ACC M7s Miami, VA Tech).

The non ACC M7s should stick together and rebuild the ACC. They would be better off financially for at least a dozen years if not more.

Of the non ACC M7s BC, SU, Pitt, Duke, Wake, GA Tech are all very similar academic schools. They all have small FB fan bases and struggle to compete NIL wise in FB. You also have Notre Dame who fits with those schools in many ways. IMO it is in everyones best interest to commit to each other. All 7 of the above are better off rebuilding the ACC than finding a new home in the B12 or AAC.

The other non ACC M7 is Louisville, who doesn't really fit with the other schools academically and is not Eastern. If they stayed in the ACC you can have a kick ass BBall league. But I think their ego takes them to the B12.

So the ACC will need to add 4 more schools. If you look at a map the FBS playing Atlantic holes are Florida, South Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, Connecticut.

The best available choice in Florida IMO is FAU. South Carolina only has Coastal Carolina and they aren't worth adding IMO. The best available choice in Virginia IMO is James Madison. There are no available full sport schools in Maryland nor New Jersey. In Connecticut you have UConn (for now at least).

If you add those 3 schools and Louisville stays, you are all set with 10 schools in FB and 11 in BBall. If Louisville leaves, then you will need one more school. So looking at available brands and markets your choices are down to USF and Temple. USF doesn't fit with the other schools. If you want to add Temple, you might as well consider Villanova.

Villanova would be the better fit with the other schools, and have the better BBall brand. It also hurts your main TV and talent competitor in Northeastern BBall as the Big East would lose its two most successful programs (UConn).

So IMO it would be best for ND, BC, SU, Pitt, Duke, WF, GT to stick together and add Florida Atlantic, James Madison, Villanova, and UConn.

In FB you actually have a legit shot at making the playoffs. Yes, it is a little weak as a conference but it is still likely to be the 4th best. Is being in the 3rd best with no shot at the playoffs really better?

That is a heck of a BBall league. You have the potential to be the best conference.

It would be great to play everyone in FB and everyone twice in BBall. That is what a conference is supposed to be. You also have good Thanksgiving weekend FB matchups: BC vs UConn, SU vs Pitt, Nova vs JMU, Duke vs Wake, GA Tech vs FAU.


If you go past 10 teams, you can consider going the hybrid route. Adding Army and Navy in FB adds brand value and gets you into MD, a missing state. Then you can have a 7 + 2/2 scheduling model. So over 4 years you play 7 teams 4x (2H/2A) and 4 teams 2x (1H/1A). Plus you get ND close to every other year.

Then you can add non FB playing Georgetown and St Johns. That would completely kill the Big East in the Northeast. Meaning the ACC would control all of Northeastern BBall, which has to add plenty of $ for TV. Scheduling you can go 4 + 4/4 to play your 20 games. So 4 teams H&A yearly, then rotate the other 8 teams with 4 H&A and 4 H or A. Over 4 years you play 4 teams 8x (4H/4A) and 8 teams 6x (3H/3A).

If the ACC M7s do leave in 10 years, how is the above not SU's (and those other non ACC M7s) best case scenario? You are in an Eastern conference with traditional rivals and like minded schools, have a legit shot at the FB playoffs, and have the best BBall league.

Could you put this in a spreadsheet

 

[kcsu]

We don't know when this will happen or who might be available. Will Maryland and Rutgers be 'raptured' just because they are already in the Big 10?

Raptured, love it.

 

[kcsu]

My premise is that the SEC would only take 2 ACC schools, not 4. Va Tech & NC State are nothing but mouths to feed. Never happen.

The Big 10 is probably only interested in UNC and UVa - state research institutions. Duke's not a research consortium school, I don't believe. And I don't think the Big 10 wants 4 more teams either, unless teams 3 and 4 are Duke and Notre Dame. That would move the needle, but Notre Dame isn't going anywhere.

The Big 12 is on just as shaky ground as the ACC. They almost folded a couple years ago, until ESPN propped them up with a big shiny new contract. The Big 12 is just as likely to be blown up again as the ACC.

So, then where does that leave those eastern "outliers" from the Big 12? If there are 2 or 4 open spots in the ACC, and the Big 10 is full, and the SEC is full, then are they going to prefer to stay in the Big 12, or maybe reconnect to a more sustainable model, and return to playing more regional, traditional rivals like some have done in the Big East.

And then factor in that the payouts on these contracts may go down in the future.
Then what happens?

If the Big didnt take Washington or Oregon they certainly wont take middling ACC teams

 

[HRE Otto IV]

My premise is that the SEC would only take 2 ACC schools, not 4. Va Tech & NC State are nothing but mouths to feed. Never happen.

The Big 10 is probably only interested in UNC and UVa - state research institutions. Duke's not a research consortium school, I don't believe. And I don't think the Big 10 wants 4 more teams either, unless teams 3 and 4 are Duke and Notre Dame. That would move the needle, but Notre Dame isn't going anywhere.

The Big 12 is on just as shaky ground as the ACC. They almost folded a couple years ago, until ESPN propped them up with a big shiny new contract. The Big 12 is just as likely to be blown up again as the ACC.

So, then where does that leave those eastern "outliers" from the Big 12? If there are 2 or 4 open spots in the ACC, and the Big 10 is full, and the SEC is full, then are they going to prefer to stay in the Big 12, or maybe reconnect to a more sustainable model, and return to playing more regional, traditional rivals like some have done in the Big East.

And then factor in that the payouts on these contracts may go down in the future.
Then what happens?

If only those 4 you listed are gone the ACC should stay at 10. There is no reason to go past 10 unless a team increases your payout. Even if the ACC did expand, they might not invite WV. A Florida school is #1. Cincy is likely #2.

The SOUTHeastern Conference is missing NC and VA. Plus they need ditch diggers.

Outside of maybe BYU and maybe Kansas the B12 schools aren’t worth adding for the B16 or SEC. The other 10 are safe.

Without those 4 ACC the B12 will be perceived to be ahead of the ACC. They are more likely to do the raiding.

Louisville would leave in a heartbeat. WV and Cincy will be in Pitt and VA Techs ear. Not hard to move East they aren’t on an island.

Duke is AAU. GA Tech is AAU. Pitt is AAU. Miami, BC, SU are R1.

 

[CousCuse]

If the Big didnt take Washington or Oregon they certainly wont take middling ACC teams

The B1G didn't take UW and OU because they didn't want to be looked at as the destroyers of the PAC12, even though the PAC12 was doomed the minute they lured USC and UCLA to join the B1G. They are just waiting for the inevitable that the southwest teams will go to the BigXII and they can come to the "rescue" of the teams they always were after.

 

[kcsu]

The B1G didn't take UW and OU because they didn't want to be looked at as the destroyers of the PAC12, even though the PAC12 was doomed the minute they lured USC and UCLA to join the B1G. They are just waiting for the inevitable that the southwest teams will go to the BigXII and they can come to the "rescue" of the teams they always were after.

False. The ONLY reason was economics. Washington and Oregon were not accretive

 

[HRE Otto IV]

False. The ONLY reason was economics. Washington and Oregon were not accretive

Not sure that is correct. Supposedly there was an expanding to 24 school vote and only USC and UCLA were approved.

 

[CousCuse]

False. The ONLY reason was economics. Washington and Oregon were not accretive

Then the only program that would be acceptable is Notre Dame with those guidelines, same for the SEC.

 

[IthacaMatt]

If the Big didnt take Washington or Oregon they certainly wont take middling ACC teams

UNC and UVa make enormous sense for them financially. Two of the 15 or 20 biggest states in terms of population; prestigious research universities with huge graduate bases, since they double as state colleges, terrific TV markets. Isn't North Carolina the fastest growing state in terms of population / relocation? That gives them a lot more presence on the east coast than just Rutgers, Maryland and Penn State.

I think the SEC already probably gets higher ratings in Virginia and North Carolina than the ACC weekly games do, so there may not be such an additive factor for the SEC to add NC State and Va. Tech, as much as it would help the Big 10 with more cable subscribers for the Big 10 Network. The SEC is already carried in those states, and it's probably already doing great ratings there.

 

[ECE '76]

If WVU played in a conference with Pitt, Cincinnati, Louisville, Va Tech, Syracuse, Boston College, Temple - doesn't that look like (a) they would save substantially on travel costs, and (b) renew old rivalries? That helps recruiting, and it helps the product on the field / court when there is actual history between the opponents.

WVU has wanted to join the ACC ever since the ACC started inviting Big East teams in. Same goes for UConn.

Also, WVU wants to play Pitt more than they want to play Louisville or Cincinnati. If the ACC collects exit fees from 7 (!) departing schools, there will be money to offer a Big 12 team to switch conferences.

 

[SWC75]

Ubben: Why unequal revenue sharing won't save the ACC

Ceding to the demands of Clemson, FSU and more isn’t a long-term fix. It'll only hasten the ever-widening split between haves and have-nots.

theathletic.com

 

[WoadBlue]

I've been avoiding this topic for a few weeks because I've been traveling, but also because all I keep hearing about it is either doomsdayer talk or pipe dreams.

Let's be real here. What do you all think are the most likely realistic outcomes IF this all happens? I understand it may not.

Here are some of the potential outcomes I have heard...some are in the above categories but maybe someone else thinks they are more realistic I dunno

1- Remaining ACC teams, including Syracuse, expand by bringing in new schools from non P-5 - this is probably the most likely, but I question whether a conference with schools like Syracuse, Duke, BC, Wake...plus schools like Army, UConn, UCF, and Cincinnati is even remotely strong enough to be considered a Power conference any longer
2- Remaining ACC teams, including Syracuse, expand by merging w the PAC-12 leftovers - I've long championed the idea of a bi-coastal conference. I think a conference that includes the ACC remnants plus schools like the Arizona schools, Stanford, San Diego State, Utah, Oregon State...while clunky, would be competitive. But that said, whenever I spoke of a bicoastal conference it was WITH the likes of Miami and FSU. This arrangement would still be the weakest power conference.
3. Going Indy for football, Big East for hoops - I think the program would just get financially crushed going indy for football. I can't see it working.
4. The B1G- I can't see a scenario where we are much value to the B1G unless they do something wild like go to 24 teams and decide they need another northern school for some reason. Even then, I would be they would look at BC first and the Boston market (not that it would get them that, no one gives a shyt about college football in Boston)
5. The entire ACC dissolves and Syracuse ends up in the AAC or similar - Worst case scenario

What other options are there? Are any of the above more viable than I am thinking?

Almost any of that could happen. What I hope happens is that the ACC remains, with enough TV money to remain truly viable for the sduration, long past 2036. It might be the your idea ofna bi-caostal affiliation is what does the trick, with the CC eithyerb working with the Pac, which would give ESPN some nice late night games shown Frdays and Saturdays, or else the ACC adding the most valuable few Pac schools.

The Pac as a truly stand alone Major conference is, in effect, dead without SC, UCLA, and the LA TV market.

 

[WoadBlue]

WVU has wanted to join the ACC ever since the ACC started inviting Big East teams in. Same goes for UConn.

Also, WVU wants to play Pitt more than they want to play Louisville or Cincinnati. If the ACC collects exit fees from 7 (!) departing schools, there will be money to offer a Big 12 team to switch conferences.

It was well before then. When the ACC was formed from the SoCon, UVA was an independent. And UVA had people who wanted to remain independent. So for several months the ACC just had 7 members. WVU and VT, both in the SoCon, worked hard to get that 8th slot. Both also proposed that the ACC take them and UVA and have 10 members.

 

[WoadBlue]

Ubben: Why unequal revenue sharing won't save the ACC

Ceding to the demands of Clemson, FSU and more isn’t a long-term fix. It'll only hasten the ever-widening split between haves and have-nots.

theathletic.com

Of course that is not a 'saving move.' But it is important because it is a move. It means that people with power finally have seen the light that they cannot just wait. So I think we now have a leadership ready to explore ideas. And that means seeing what ESPN will pay more for.

 

[NYCCuse826]

Remaining Pac 12 + Remaining ACC = All Coast Conference

 

[Sherman20]

The premise was the M7 are gone, hence the open spots.

FSU+Clemson+VT+NC State = 4.

If your premise is only the 1st two leave, why add any teams to the ACC? Especially a non like school? They can stay at 12.

The SEC and Big 10 would have little interest in VT and NC State. I can’t tell you that right now.

 

[Sherman20]

My premise is that the SEC would only take 2 ACC schools, not 4. Va Tech & NC State are nothing but mouths to feed. Never happen.

The Big 10 is probably only interested in UNC and UVa - state research institutions. Duke's not a research consortium school, I don't believe. And I don't think the Big 10 wants 4 more teams either, unless teams 3 and 4 are Duke and Notre Dame. That would move the needle, but Notre Dame isn't going anywhere.

The Big 12 is on just as shaky ground as the ACC. They almost folded a couple years ago, until ESPN propped them up with a big shiny new contract. The Big 12 is just as likely to be blown up again as the ACC.

So, then where does that leave those eastern "outliers" from the Big 12? If there are 2 or 4 open spots in the ACC, and the Big 10 is full, and the SEC is full, then are they going to prefer to stay in the Big 12, or maybe reconnect to a more sustainable model, and return to playing more regional, traditional rivals like some have done in the Big East.

And then factor in that the payouts on these contracts may go down in the future.
Then what happens?

Matt, you are so right on with all this. The Magnificent 7 is a joke.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

The SEC and Big 10 would have little interest in VT and NC State. I can’t tell you that right now.

Agreed about the B16.

SEC is a different story. The big programs need wins. The map needs those states.