IF the ACC breaks up, what are the likely outcomes for Syracuse?

[HRE Otto IV]

Almost any of that could happen. What I hope happens is that the ACC remains, with enough TV money to remain truly viable for the sduration, long past 2036. It might be the your idea ofna bi-caostal affiliation is what does the trick, with the CC eithyerb working with the Pac, which would give ESPN some nice late night games shown Frdays and Saturdays, or else the ACC adding the most valuable few Pac schools.

The Pac as a truly stand alone Major conference is, in effect, dead without SC, UCLA, and the LA TV market.

If the ACC is to remain it really is up to UNC. IMO FSU is the only one really looking to leave. Others will for a P2 invite, but those might not come. I could see the other 13 schools extending the GOR in 10 years for another 5 years. With FSU ending up in the B12.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

As to the All Coastal idea, I think there are a few issues:

-You pretty much have to go to 9 conference games. FSU and Clemson have been against that in the past.

- Adding all 10 makes it very hard to schedule. And you are adding schools that don't really add much value: Arizona, Cal, Oregon State, Washington State.

- I doubt you can get just the six worthy schools. Are they able to leave behind the above 4?

- Maybe Arizona will be worth it due to BBall, and you keep them away from the B12. But then you have 7. So you will need to take an 8th (Cal?). But again will Oregon and Washington leave behind their in state rivals into the MWC?

- If you have 8 then it would be best to go to 24 and a pod system for scheduling. Being at 22 is too hard to schedule. But there aren't 2 worthy Eastern schools. UConn, maybe. Also, I don't think UNC or Duke want them added. Then who? B12 schools might want in but they aren't paying a buyout to get a few million more in the ACC. USF makes sense but I am sure FSU would be very against that. And they don't fit academically. That leaves a Philly school (Temple or Villanova), but that weakens FB especially if you add UConn too.

- Eventually the B16 will grab 2-4 of those teams. Then what do you do? You can get by with just 6 of the P12 schools. But if you are down to 4, which also happen to be the lower value teams, you are left with a Western pod that makes no sense. What is the point in having them? Or the 4 will want you to add more schools like San Diego State. Do we really want to go down that road?


I think adding P10 schools makes sense short term, but long term it will add a bunch of unwanted headaches. Unless you can agree to merge the conferences only for the life of the GOR. Meaning the P10 schools aren't officially ACC members, and do not have ACC voting rights. So should the B16 take a few schools, the ACC can walk away from what is leftover.

Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford
Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado
BC, UConn, SU, Nova
Louisville, Pitt, VA Tech, UVA
UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake
Clemson, GA Tech, FSU, Miami

 

[longtimefan]

As to the All Coastal idea, I think there are a few issues:

-You pretty much have to go to 9 conference games. FSU and Clemson have been against that in the past.

- Adding all 10 makes it very hard to schedule. And you are adding schools that don't really add much value: Arizona, Cal, Oregon State, Washington State.

- I doubt you can get just the six worthy schools. Are they able to leave behind the above 4?

- Maybe Arizona will be worth it due to BBall, and you keep them away from the B12. But then you have 7. So you will need to take an 8th (Cal?). But again will Oregon and Washington leave behind their in state rivals into the MWC?

- If you have 8 then it would be best to go to 24 and a pod system for scheduling. Being at 22 is too hard to schedule. But there aren't 2 worthy Eastern schools. UConn, maybe. Also, I don't think UNC or Duke want them added. Then who? B12 schools might want in but they aren't paying a buyout to get a few million more in the ACC. USF makes sense but I am sure FSU would be very against that. And they don't fit academically. That leaves a Philly school (Temple or Villanova), but that weakens FB especially if you add UConn too.

- Eventually the B16 will grab 2-4 of those teams. Then what do you do? You can get by with just 6 of the P12 schools. But if you are down to 4, which also happen to be the lower value teams, you are left with a Western pod that makes no sense. What is the point in having them? Or the 4 will want you to add more schools like San Diego State. Do we really want to go down that road?


I think adding P10 schools makes sense short term, but long term it will add a bunch of unwanted headaches. Unless you can agree to merge the conferences only for the life of the GOR. Meaning the P10 schools aren't officially ACC members, and do not have ACC voting rights. So should the B16 take a few schools, the ACC can walk away from what is leftover.

Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford
Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado
BC, UConn, SU, Nova
Louisville, Pitt, VA Tech, UVA
UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake
Clemson, GA Tech, FSU, Miami

You don't bring the PAC-? leftovers into the league; just make them part of a federation. Set up a West Coast broadcast center for the ACC Network (the PAC has failed to establish a network of their own). Lots of new inventory--late-night games, and tons of Olympic sports activity. Agree to regular competitions in the revenue sports--one football game and two basketball games each year. The ACC gets an ally, and gives the league (and its network) entry into Phoenix, Seattle, and the Bay Area.

Of course, Oregon and Washington would still bolt for the B1G if called. But it might keep the others from joining the Big XII. And the ACC is in competition with them to be the #3 league. Being third may be the difference between survival and extinction.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

You don't bring the PAC-? leftovers into the league; just make them part of a federation. Set up a West Coast broadcast center for the ACC Network (the PAC has failed to establish a network of their own). Lots of new inventory--late-night games, and tons of Olympic sports activity. Agree to regular competitions in the revenue sports--one football game and two basketball games each year. The ACC gets an ally, and gives the league (and its network) entry into Phoenix, Seattle, and the Bay Area.

Of course, Oregon and Washington would still bolt for the B1G if called. But it might keep the others from joining the Big XII. And the ACC is in competition with them to be the #3 league. Being third may be the difference between survival and extinction.

That does nothing for tier 1/2 for each conference. Just helps the ACCN.

 

[longtimefan]

That does nothing for tier 1/2 for each conference. Just helps the ACCN.

It helps with football scheduling. And it would keep some of the PAC's from heading to the Big XII.

My real point is that talk of an East-West merger of conferences is fanciful, but a lesser cooperation might be feasible.

 

[WoadBlue]

It helps with football scheduling. And it would keep some of the PAC's from heading to the Big XII.

My real point is that talk of an East-West merger of conferences is fanciful, but a lesser cooperation might be feasible.

I think you have points that may be the most sound.

 

[kcsu]

Not sure that is correct. Supposedly there was an expanding to 24 school vote and only USC and UCLA were approved.

 

[kcsu]

In thirteen years, we will have more EC vehicles than combustion, Syracuse will be the new silicon valley, Dino will be the mayor of Honolulu, Binghamton will be in the Big East, and Dasher will have won his third straight world series of Poker. Bottom line is nobody has a clue what is going to happen.

 

[IthacaMatt]

As to the All Coastal idea, I think there are a few issues:

-You pretty much have to go to 9 conference games. FSU and Clemson have been against that in the past.

- Adding all 10 makes it very hard to schedule. And you are adding schools that don't really add much value: Arizona, Cal, Oregon State, Washington State.

- I doubt you can get just the six worthy schools. Are they able to leave behind the above 4?

- Maybe Arizona will be worth it due to BBall, and you keep them away from the B12. But then you have 7. So you will need to take an 8th (Cal?). But again will Oregon and Washington leave behind their in state rivals into the MWC?

- If you have 8 then it would be best to go to 24 and a pod system for scheduling. Being at 22 is too hard to schedule. But there aren't 2 worthy Eastern schools. UConn, maybe. Also, I don't think UNC or Duke want them added. Then who? B12 schools might want in but they aren't paying a buyout to get a few million more in the ACC. USF makes sense but I am sure FSU would be very against that. And they don't fit academically. That leaves a Philly school (Temple or Villanova), but that weakens FB especially if you add UConn too.

- Eventually the B16 will grab 2-4 of those teams. Then what do you do? You can get by with just 6 of the P12 schools. But if you are down to 4, which also happen to be the lower value teams, you are left with a Western pod that makes no sense. What is the point in having them? Or the 4 will want you to add more schools like San Diego State. Do we really want to go down that road?


I think adding P10 schools makes sense short term, but long term it will add a bunch of unwanted headaches. Unless you can agree to merge the conferences only for the life of the GOR. Meaning the P10 schools aren't officially ACC members, and do not have ACC voting rights. So should the B16 take a few schools, the ACC can walk away from what is leftover.

Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford
Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado
BC, UConn, SU, Nova
Louisville, Pitt, VA Tech, UVA
UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake
Clemson, GA Tech, FSU, Miami

24 team mega-conferences will never work, in my opinion.

 

[HtownOrange]

In thirteen years, we will have more EC vehicles than combustion, Syracuse will be the new silicon valley, Dino will be the mayor of Honolulu, Binghamton will be in the Big East, and Dasher will have won his third straight world series of Poker. Bottom line is nobody has a clue what is going to happen.

If the SEC, B1G and ACC stay as they are, in 13 years, many teams will be pining for the day when they ruled small regional conferences. Which teams, I cannot say.

 

[Cajovalley]

I don't think that there will be a super conference without a New York school. Penn State doesn't cover upstate. Rutgers doesn't. BC doesn't cover Boston. I think we will be fine. Dino needs to work harder.

 

[Cajovalley]

Has anyone heard from Kenny's 2 Penny's yet?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

It helps with football scheduling. And it would keep some of the PAC's from heading to the Big XII.

My real point is that talk of an East-West merger of conferences is fanciful, but a lesser cooperation might be feasible.

A cooperation keeps teams from the B12 but it does nothing to bring more money which is why it will not happen.

The P10 is set to play 9 conference games each and 1 OOC game vs teams from the SEC, B16, B12, ACC, and ND. ESPN reportedly said that is worth $25M per team. The P10 reportedly turned that down because they wanted at least $30M. So how exactly does reducing that 1 OOC game to just ACC teams bring $5M more to the ESPN offer? If anything it would be less.

But what about the ACCN? Sure having an extra game late night on the ACCN will add value. And having more inventory to choose from for 3:30 and 7 will be beneficial. But in order to cover the extra tier 1/2 P10 costs ($50M) and split the ACCN money with the ACC, the P10 tier 3 rights would need to bring in at least $60M to make it worth it to ESPN. I highly doubt that is the case.


A merger of the conference probably isn't worth it to ESPN either. But in that case you at least have a bunch of intersectional games which have more potential value. The P10 has some decent FB brands but they get lost playing all those West Coast games. Having 2 East Coast conference games will help that.

Also if it is only 8 of 10 P10 teams coming, the cost is $240M which is less than the $250M offer. ESPN pays more per team but with less teams it is cheaper overall.

And that is just FB. The intersectional BBall games will add value as well.


In the end, IMO there is no way a confederation happens. I don't see the added value in it. A merger of some sorts is possible, but still highly unlikely.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

24 team mega-conferences will never work, in my opinion.

Why? The B16 is likely heading in that direction. Supposedly the plan was already there and voted on. It is pretty easy to schedule it where you play everyone once in 4 years in FB and home and away every 4 years in BBall.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

A cooperation keeps teams from the B12 but it does nothing to bring more money which is why it will not happen.

The P10 is set to play 9 conference games each and 1 OOC game vs teams from the SEC, B16, B12, ACC, and ND. ESPN reportedly said that is worth $25M per team. The P10 reportedly turned that down because they wanted at least $30M. So how exactly does reducing that 1 OOC game to just ACC teams bring $5M more to the ESPN offer? If anything it would be less.

But what about the ACCN? Sure having an extra game late night on the ACCN will add value. And having more inventory to choose from for 3:30 and 7 will be beneficial. But in order to cover the extra tier 1/2 P10 costs ($50M) and split the ACCN money with the ACC, the P10 tier 3 rights would need to bring in at least $60M to make it worth it to ESPN. I highly doubt that is the case.


A merger of the conference probably isn't worth it to ESPN either. But in that case you at least have a bunch of intersectional games which have more potential value. The P10 has some decent FB brands but they get lost playing all those West Coast games. Having 2 East Coast conference games will help that.

Also if it is only 8 of 10 P10 teams coming, the cost is $240M which is less than the $250M offer. ESPN pays more per team but with less teams it is cheaper overall.

And that is just FB. The intersectional BBall games will add value as well.


In the end, IMO there is no way a confederation happens. I don't see the added value in it. A merger of some sorts is possible, but still highly unlikely.

Also I forgot to add extra travel costs. For the P10 teams is a merger with the ACC worth it for only $5M extra when a good chunk of that is lost in extra travel costs? They seem better off staying as is.

And what about the ACC teams? They are going to want to make an extra $5M each per team, especially with the extra travel. Otherwise what is the point?

So for the merger to make any cents, ESPN would need to pay out $375M. Which means those intersectional games would need to be worth $125M. I highly doubt that is the case.

Which means the thought of an All Coast Conference (whether a merger or confederation) seems dead in the water. Which is probably why it has not happened.

 

[Sherman20]

If the ACC is to remain it really is up to UNC. IMO FSU is the only one really looking to leave. Others will for a P2 invite, but those might not come. I could see the other 13 schools extending the GOR in 10 years for another 5 years. With FSU ending up in the B12.

Why would FSU leave Clemson and the other ACC schools behind for the Big 12? That’s a real knee slapper. Clemson and Miami are better football brands/powers than any of the drek left in the Big 12. Come on. The Big 12 has no real football powers left after Texas and OU depart. And the projected TV money will be better in the ACC. Plus, remember the school presidents are making these decisions. They’re not leaving behind prestige academic institutions like UNC, UVA and Duke for the mostly middling schools in the Big 12. Academics do matter if all other considerations are mostly equal. If FSU gets a Big 10 or SEC invite, that’s a different story. They would leave for those conferences but only due to the money. But I don’t see the SEC inviting another Florida school, and I don’t think either conference has an appetite to wade into a massive legal battle over GOR.

 

[Bayside44]

Why would FSU leave Clemson and the other ACC schools behind for the Big 12? That’s a real knee slapper. Clemson and Miami are better football brands/powers than any of the drek left in the Big 12. Come on. The Big 12 has no real football powers left after Texas and OU depart. And the projected TV money will be better in the ACC. Plus, remember the school presidents are making these decisions. They’re not leaving behind prestige academic institutions like UNC, UVA and Duke for the mostly middling schools in the Big 12. Academics do matter if all other considerations are mostly equal. If FSU gets a Big 10 or SEC invite, that’s a different story. They would leave for those conferences but only due to the money. But I don’t see the SEC inviting another Florida school, and I don’t think either conference has an appetite to wade into a massive legal battle over GOR.

Big 12 schools still want in the ACC, not the other way around. Good post.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

.

Why would FSU leave Clemson and the other ACC schools behind for the Big 12? That’s a real knee slapper. Clemson and Miami are better football brands/powers than any of the drek left in the Big 12. Come on. The Big 12 has no real football powers left after Texas and OU depart. And the projected TV money will be better in the ACC. Plus, remember the school presidents are making these decisions. They’re not leaving behind prestige academic institutions like UNC, UVA and Duke for the mostly middling schools in the Big 12. Academics do matter if all other considerations are mostly equal. If FSU gets a Big 10 or SEC invite, that’s a different story. They would leave for those conferences but only due to the money. But I don’t see the SEC inviting another Florida school and I don’t think either conference has an appetite to wade into a massive legal battle over GOR.

Because you cannot give presentations about how the B12 will soon make a decent about of money more than the ACC and how FSU brings in 1/3 of the ACC TV money, and then sign an extension to the same GOR. Especially if FSU is representing the ACC in the playoffs every year. The boosters, fans, and I am sure some of the board of directors were all lead down a road that is hard to come back from.

I think FSU is run by a bunch of idiots. I suppose they could fire their AD and try to change the ACC narrative by 2036, but it will be hard. They need to change their tune. The way they have been acting the last fews months has done nothing but hurt the ACC. And they have also made themselves look like a bunch of clowns. If the adults are running things, then I agree with you. I don't have faith that will be the case.


Edit

If FSU believes that the B12 makes more money, the ACC with FSU makes less money, and the ACC only makes money because of FSU, wouldn't they also believe that the B12 with FSU would make even more money than they currently do?

If FSU believes the ACC is a bunch of FB freeloaders taking money away from FSU, wouldn't they want to be with other schools that care about FB?

That is what they have been telling everyone. It has gotten their fanbase, boosters, and some administration all riled up. And they have done it publicly which is even worse. How do you walk that back and sign onto the ACC till 2042?

 

[IthacaMatt]

It is pretty easy to schedule it where you play everyone once in 4 years in FB and home and away every 4 years in BBall.

Yeah, and we're currently on a similar schedule with Miami and Va. Tech

Those rivalries are just as good as they used to be, right ???

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Yeah, and we're currently on a similar schedule with Miami and Va. Tech

Those rivalries are just as good as they used to be, right ???

It sucks. I wish the NCAA would cap conferences at 10 teams. That would allow for a round robin in both FB and BBall.

Then the B16 would be a confederation of 30 teams in 3 separate conferences, and the SEC 20 teams in 2 conferences.

B10 x 3:
West- USC, UCLA, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Nebraska
Central- Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa
East- Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland, Notre Dame, Syracuse, BC, UVA, UNC, GA Tech, Miami

SEC
Old- LSU, Ole Miss, Miss State, Bama, Auburn, Florida, UGA, Tennessee, Vandy, Kentucky
New- Texas, Texas A&M, Mizzou, Arkansas, Kansas, South Carolina, FSU, Clemson, NC State, VA Tech

B12
West- San Diego State, Arizona State, BYU, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, Houston, Okie State, K State, Iowa State
East- WV, Cincy, Pitt, Louisville, UConn, Temple, Duke, Memphis, UCF, USF


So for SU we lose Pitt yearly and don't see VA Tech/Louisville anymore. But we keep BC, see Miami more often, and get back Penn State, Rutgers, and MD. We still don't have WV/Temple/Army/Navy. That is looking at the teams we have played more than 16x historically in FB. We would be trading Pitt/VA Tech/Louisville for Penn State/Maryland/Rutgers and more Miami. That seems like a good trade, Especially if we get ND more often too.

 

[BlazeOrange]

24 team mega-conferences will never work, in my opinion.

To work, they need to blow alot up:
Have four 6-team divisions. Play your division plus one rotating team from each of the other divisions for an 8 game conference schedule. 2 OOC games: one layup and one traditional rival/major team to make a 10 game season. Seed division winners for a Conference Playoff. Winner goes to National Championship- likely vs winner of the other 24 team conference, but could be in a playoff if NCAA still exists.

Divisional also rans could take a cue from high schools and schedule a couple more games on their own or form mini tournaments for the 2nd place, 3rd place, etc. teams to fill out their seasons.

 

[longtimefan]

To work, they need to blow alot up:
Have four 6-team divisions. Play your division plus one rotating team from each of the other divisions for an 8 game conference schedule. 2 OOC games: one layup and one traditional rival/major team to make a 10 game season. Seed division winners for a Conference Playoff. Winner goes to National Championship- likely vs winner of the other 24 team conference, but could be in a playoff if NCAA still exists.

Divisional also rans could take a cue from high schools and schedule a couple more games on their own or form mini tournaments for the 2nd place, 3rd place, etc. teams to fill out their seasons.

Biggest problem--these behemoths are really not leagues at all.

 

[SU94]

It sucks. I wish the NCAA would cap conferences at 10 teams. That would allow for a round robin in both FB and BBall.

Then the B16 would be a confederation of 30 teams in 3 separate conferences, and the SEC 20 teams in 2 conferences.

B10 x 3:
West- USC, UCLA, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Nebraska
Central- Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa
East- Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland, Notre Dame, Syracuse, BC, UVA, UNC, GA Tech, Miami

SEC
Old- LSU, Ole Miss, Miss State, Bama, Auburn, Florida, UGA, Tennessee, Vandy, Kentucky
New- Texas, Texas A&M, Mizzou, Arkansas, Kansas, South Carolina, FSU, Clemson, NC State, VA Tech

B12
West- San Diego State, Arizona State, BYU, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, Houston, Okie State, K State, Iowa State
East- WV, Cincy, Pitt, Louisville, UConn, Temple, Duke, Memphis, UCF, USF


So for SU we lose Pitt yearly and don't see VA Tech/Louisville anymore. But we keep BC, see Miami more often, and get back Penn State, Rutgers, and MD. We still don't have WV/Temple/Army/Navy. That is looking at the teams we have played more than 16x historically in FB. We would be trading Pitt/VA Tech/Louisville for Penn State/Maryland/Rutgers and more Miami. That seems like a good trade, Especially if we get ND more often too.

You seem like a data driven guy…

Question: How many different versions of conference realignment have you posted here in the last decade? 200? 500? 1000+?

You’re a machine, … you’re passionate. So don’t feel bad about the question. Genuinely curious.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

You seem like a data driven guy…

Question: How many different versions of conference realignment have you posted here in the last decade? 200? 500? 1000+?

You’re a machine, … you’re passionate. So don’t feel bad about the question. Genuinely curious.

 

[Sherman20]

.


Because you cannot give presentations about how the B12 will soon make a decent about of money more than the ACC and how FSU brings in 1/3 of the ACC TV money, and then sign an extension to the same GOR. Especially if FSU is representing the ACC in the playoffs every year. The boosters, fans, and I am sure some of the board of directors were all lead down a road that is hard to come back from.

I think FSU is run by a bunch of idiots. I suppose they could fire their AD and try to change the ACC narrative by 2036, but it will be hard. They need to change their tune. The way they have been acting the last fews months has done nothing but hurt the ACC. And they have also made themselves look like a bunch of clowns. If the adults are running things, then I agree with you. I don't have faith that will be the case.


Edit

If FSU believes that the B12 makes more money, the ACC with FSU makes less money, and the ACC only makes money because of FSU, wouldn't they also believe that the B12 with FSU would make even more money than they currently do?

If FSU believes the ACC is a bunch of FB freeloaders taking money away from FSU, wouldn't they want to be with other schools that care about FB?

That is what they have been telling everyone. It has gotten their fanbase, boosters, and some administration all riled up. And they have done it publicly which is even worse. How do you walk that back and sign onto the ACC till 2042?

With Texas and OU departing, the Big 12 will not make more money than the ACC going forward. I can’t find the chart right now, but projected ACC TV revenues are expected to outstrip projected Big 12 revenues in the next year or two (after Texas and OU leave) and will continue to stay ahead of the Big 12.

I don’t disagree that the FSU boosters and fans are out of control lunatics. But they wouldn’t want the Big 12, being that that conference makes less money than the ACC and has no football powers. So it wouldn’t make sense to start a legal battle over GOR to leave for the Big12, where revenue projections are less. The SEC or Big10 maybe, but I don’t think those conferences want any part of a drawn out GOR legal battle that probably won’t end well for FSU.