Is Oshae having the worst FG shooting stretch in SU history?

[UnknownOrange]

His TS% is significantly lower than any of any of the other guys that play. That's true for the full year and in conference play. This stat incorporates the different value of 3pt and 2pt baskets, plus FTs.

The silver lining is his PER, while not great, is tied with Battle for second best for the year (Chukwu is #1, but it can skew towards benefiting bigs).

One other note, he is leading the team in win shares. He and battle are way out front in that stat.

There hasn't been a major shift over the course of the year. He's basically not been very efficient the whole year. My guess, and I know I've been hammering this, is that him averaging 37.5 mpg is way too much for him. Combined with, what I feel is, a poor offensive strategy on JB's part, this is what you get with a freshman that is being depended on this much.

This isn't a slight to you but TS% stinks. Your field goal percentage is what it is. Your free throw percentage is what it is. To me it's like in baseball when a guy has a good BABIP (batting average of balls in play) which is essentially if strikeouts don't count. Mark Reynolds had a .343 BABIP last year but hit .267 because he strikes out a ton.

Just because a guy gets a lot of free throw attempts doesn't mean he's a better shooter, ya know?

 

[HakAttack]

This isn't a slight to you but TS% stinks. Your field goal percentage is what it is. Your free throw percentage is what it is. To me it's like in baseball when a guy has a good BABIP (batting average of balls in play) which is essentially if strikeouts don't count. Mark Reynolds had a .343 BABIP last year but hit .267 because he strikes out a ton.

Just because a guy gets a lot of free throw attempts doesn't mean he's a better shooter, ya know?

First of all, that’s a flawed argument because OBP is more important than either AVG or BABIP. Any baseball fan worth their salt knows that.

True shooting percentage is useful because it provides a player’s overall offensive contribution to a team’s success, kinda like OBP.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

First of all, that’s a flawed argument because OBP is more important than either AVG or BABIP. Any baseball fan worth their salt knows that.

True shooting percentage is useful because it provides a player’s overall offensive contribution to a team’s success, kinda like OBP.

well, if you are going to use OBP as a predictive stat for future OBP rather than simply a record of what occurred, its essential to factor in BABIP. someone with a career BABIP of 295 who gets lucky for a year and BABIPS 400, well..you know the elevated OBP that results is BS and not sustainable.

 

[br801]

First of all, that’s a flawed argument because OBP is more important than either AVG or BABIP. Any baseball fan worth their salt knows that.

True shooting percentage is useful because it provides an overall offensive contribution to a team’s success, kinda like OBP.

Thank you, I was about to say something similar. It's a better measure of scoring efficiency than fg% because it also accounts for 3-point shots and free throws and rewards players accordingly.

 

[UnknownOrange]

First of all, that’s a flawed argument because OBP is more important than either AVG or BABIP. Any baseball fan worth their salt knows that.

True shooting percentage is useful because it provides a player’s overall offensive contribution to a team’s success, kinda like OBP.

I was just saying how I think BABIP is a silly stat. I know OBP is more important.

However I don't like TS% because to me it's irrelevant. If you can't tell what type of player you have from watching them, seeing their fg%, seeing their 3p%, and seeing their FTA + % you need to watch more basketball. Like I know Oshae can get to the line and has good potential, but he is a bad shooter. I don't need TS% to tell me that. Steph Curry is a great shooter and he has a great TS% ... ya don't say?

 

[HakAttack]

well, if you are going to use OBP as a predictive stat for future OBP rather than simply a record of what occurred, its essential to factor in BABIP. someone with a career BABIP of 295 who gets lucky for a year and BABIPS 400, well..you know the elevated OBP that results is BS and not sustainable.

Yes, absolutely. Not all stats are created in vacuums.

 

[UnknownOrange]

Also i don't mean you specifically haha. I just don't think ALL advanced stats are truly necessary

 

[HakAttack]

Also i don't mean you specifically haha. I just don't think ALL advanced stats are truly necessary

For sure. I haven’t fully bought into the sabermetric/advanced stats discussion either. But true shooting % is much more of a clear evaluation of a player’s offensive performance than just going by FG%. If the “shooting” portion of the name bothers you, pretend it’s actually named “True Offensive %” or something like that.

 

[Knicks411]

This isn't a slight to you but TS% stinks. Your field goal percentage is what it is. Your free throw percentage is what it is. To me it's like in baseball when a guy has a good BABIP (batting average of balls in play) which is essentially if strikeouts don't count. Mark Reynolds had a .343 BABIP last year but hit .267 because he strikes out a ton.

Just because a guy gets a lot of free throw attempts doesn't mean he's a better shooter, ya know?

Sure, but it's just a way account for free throws and 3 pointers and put them on a somewhat equal scale. I wouldn't say the guys with the best TS are necessarily the "best" shooters, but they are generally the most efficient scorers.

Another point, I made this before on OB, we don't often talk about turnovers when it comes to shooting. For all of his faults when it comes to, you know, making shots, the guy has a really low turnover rate (10.1%, nearly in the top 100 in the country) and that doesn't account for usage. Usually the guys with the super low turnover rates are the guys who just shoot 3's and don't actually do anything with the ball.

 

[Cuseball]

His shooting is so awful and we're not in the position for him to learn on the job. I'd rather see Frank or Tyus drive every single time. I cringe every time he makes a move.

OB's shooting has not been great and finishing very questionable, however I am okay with him taking those shots. If he doesn't then there are just more forced shots coming from Howard or Tyus. If Oshae can ever knock down the 12 foot jumpers then his defender will come out further on him and hopefully that translates to a bit more success on the drives.

 

[two3zone]

OB's shooting has not been great and finishing very questionable, however I am okay with him taking those shots. If he doesn't then there are just more forced shots coming from Howard or Tyus. If Oshae can ever knock down the 12 foot jumpers then his defender will come out further on him and hopefully that translates to a bit more success on the drives.

If you're ok with him taking those shots then you're ok with this team being the way it is.

 

[Jasoncuse]

He's not strong enough to take any sort of contact and finish. He is consistently fading away from the basket or taking bad shots because he can't get com

pletely by his defender. Yes, he's trying to draw fouls there, but if he doesn't get the call, he miss 98% of the time.

Oshae kind of reminds me of Wes Johnson if he were forced to constantly drive and get his own shot. Nowhere near the shooter Wes was at this point and may be a tick behind in athleticism, but he's being forced to do so much more. OB doesn't have the game yet to be playing the type of role he's being forced to. He's not an iso guy, like the rest of his teammates, so there will be issues and growing pains and overall poor efficiency/shooting numbers. I can't blame him as he's playing his tail off and must be exhausted even though he doesn't show it. Props to him and the guards.

Cooney had similar stretches:
His January 2014 #'s - 25-75 FG (33%)
The final 7 regular season games 2014 and ACCT vs NC State: 20-79 FG (25.3%)
The first 11 games of his senior year, he was 33% from the field (44-131)
The final 14 regular season ACC games, he shot 29.2% from the field (49-168). He was 31.8% from the field in ACC play that year...

I'm sure we've seen other stretches like these from other players, as well.

 

[Jasoncuse]

He ran some pick and pops the last couple games (wake mainly) to some success. I’ve never understood having a 7-2 guy 30 feet out. His guy doesn’t even have to hedge out

It makes no sense, and never will.

But when you constantly have 2-3 guys on the floor every year that have no offensive skills, this is what you get...

 

[two3zone]

He's not strong enough to take any sort of contact and finish. He is consistently fading away from the basket or taking bad shots because he can't get com

pletely by his defender. Yes, he's trying to draw fouls there, but if he doesn't get the call, he miss 98% of the time.

Oshae kind of reminds me of Wes Johnson if he were forced to constantly drive and get his own shot. Nowhere near the shooter Wes was at this point and may be a tick behind in athleticism, but he's being forced to do so much more. OB doesn't have the game yet to be playing the type of role he's being forced to. He's not an iso guy, like the rest of his teammates, so there will be issues and growing pains and overall poor efficiency/shooting numbers. I can't blame him as he's playing his tail off and must be exhausted even though he doesn't show it. Props to him and the guards.

Cooney had similar stretches:
His January 2014 #'s - 25-75 FG (33%)
The final 7 regular season games 2014 and ACCT vs NC State: 20-79 FG (25.3%)
The first 11 games of his senior year, he was 33% from the field (44-131)
The final 14 regular season ACC games, he shot 29.2% from the field (49-168). He was 31.8% from the field in ACC play that year...

I'm sure we've seen other stretches like these from other players, as well.

Problem is it isn't a stretch, outside a few games he's been bad from the field.

 

[HoustonCuse]

His jump shot is improving, but his shots at the rim are getting worse. He's got to have the worst shooting percentage at the rim in Syracuse history.

he sure gets his shot blocked alot for a tall, elite athlete

Are you guys talking about Brissett or Paul Harris?

 

[dasher]

he sure gets his shot blocked alot for a tall, elite athlete

That is because the guy that guards our centers doesn't bother to guard our big, he just waits for our drivers so he can double team him. They do this because our slashers can't pass and even if they could, our bigs wouldn't catch it. And even if they could catch it, they couldn't make the shot.

 

[br801]

Are you guys talking about Brissett or Paul Harris?

For all the flack Paul Harris takes from some fans, he really was a very efficient scorer and fantastic rebounder.

Paul Harris College Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

 

[Knicks411]

For all the flack Paul Harris takes from some fans, he really was a very efficient scorer and fantastic rebounder.

Paul Harris College Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

I think Paul's biggest fault was being so highly touted out of high school

 

[br801]

I think Paul's biggest fault was being so highly touted out of high school

Mini LeBron

 

[SU2NASA]

Trevor Cooney would like to say hello.

 

[OttoMets]

Trevor Cooney would like to say hello.

Oshae's giving the guy a run for his money. Right now he's edging out Cooney for the bottom spot in the Boeheim era, with .335 on 13 attempts per game. Cooney was .348 on 11.7 attempts as a senior.

They're different types of players, though. I don't know if we've ever had a starting forward shoot so badly. Elvir Ovcina went .328 and .316 in his last two years, but that was as a reserve with under 4 attempts per game. Dave Siock did have a .333 season in which he took 63 shots (only 2 threes) over 21 starts and 10 reserve appearances; I don't even know how that's possible.

Looks like Todd Burgan's the worst Boeheim-era full-time starting forward, with .393 on 12.7 attempts per game as a junior trying to do too much. Obviously Oshae is on pace to shatter that.

 

[Knicks411]

I wanted to look at the Ken Pom player comps for Brissett, some interesting names in his top 5, including Wes Johnson's freshmen year at #3 and (wait for it) Melo's freshmen year at #5!

Couple of caveats: The similarity scores are pretty low, for instance, his most similar comp is Justin jackson from Maryland last year, that checks in at 908 (scale is 1000). All of Tyus Battle's top 5 comps are more similar than the most similar comp for OB; basically, he's unique.

Another caveat; pure shooting % is a relatively low weight, the list is here: Free Tim Williams | The kenpom.com blog


Here's my main overall take on Brisset: The shooting percentages are horrendous. There's no sugercoating that. But there are a lot of things working in his favor.
1) He's just a freshmen, and he's being forcefed a lot more minutes than he's probably ready for.
2) He's both drawing a lot of fouls and shooting well from the line. The second part of that says to me there's a decent amount of upside to the current shooting percentages
3) He's rebounding well, on both ends of the floor. He's by far the best defensive rebounder we have, and right now has a better defensive rebounding% than anyone we've had in the last 7 years or so.
4) He's got a really low TO rate. So, despite the terrible shooting percentages, he's got an above average offensive rating and barely rates behind Battle in this metric.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

I was just saying how I think BABIP is a silly stat. I know OBP is more important.

However I don't like TS% because to me it's irrelevant. If you can't tell what type of player you have from watching them, seeing their fg%, seeing their 3p%, and seeing their FTA + % you need to watch more basketball. Like I know Oshae can get to the line and has good potential, but he is a bad shooter. I don't need TS% to tell me that. Steph Curry is a great shooter and he has a great TS% ... ya don't say?

It's not a silly stat. Its very important in fact when one is trying to determine the validity of other stats such as OBP. It's just that there is alot of random variation in a player's babip and only a certain amount of it is under player control..although its less random than was originally believed

 

[br801]

Oshae's giving the guy a run for his money. Right now he's edging out Cooney for the bottom spot in the Boeheim era, with .335 on 13 attempts per game. Cooney was .348 on 11.7 attempts as a senior.

They're different types of players, though. I don't know if we've ever had a starting forward shoot so badly. Elvir Ovcina went .328 and .316 in his last two years, but that was as a reserve with under 4 attempts per game. Dave Siock did have a .333 season in which he took 63 shots (only 2 threes) over 21 starts and 10 reserve appearances; I don't even know how that's possible.

Looks like Todd Burgan's the worst Boeheim-era full-time starting forward, with .393 on 12.7 attempts per game as a junior trying to do too much. Obviously Oshae is on pace to shatter that.

It's important to remember that 60 to 70 percent of Cooney's shots were 3-pointers, and many of those were of the high degree of difficulty variety, so a low FG% was pretty much baked in. Brissett has plenty of room to improve his FG%; let's hope we start to see it happen soon.

 

[BlackSquirrels]

It’s possible Deshaun Williams had a similar streak of futility at some point during his SU career.

Of course, Deshaun likely would have failed a breathalyzer test in the locker room before some games so you have to take that into account when comparing his numbers to those of Oshae.