Judah Mintz to test NBA Draft waters

[Melancer46]

I think we all know that guys that drafted top 10, lottery, or even simply first round generally pan out more than a second round.

I think the issue is we are assuming Judah may go undrafted this year but be a first rounder next year. I wouldn’t say that’s actually very likely. If teams think that little of him now that the 55th spot is accurate for this year, there’s probably about as good a chance that waiting another year just leads him to being undrafted (which could arguably be better than being the 55th pick because he can then select where he signs but still).

Point is guys generally have to improve a ton to go from being potentially undrafted to being a first round pick. Maybe Judah will improve a ton but it's probably more likely that he only shows modest improvements, in which case he may not improve his draft stock at all and would have simply missed out on a year of development.

The history of freshmen going through the draft process, returning to school, and improving their draft stock is spotty at best. I pulled the numbers a few weeks back and I believe it happens less than half the time.

TLDR: Mintz will have to beat the odds no matter what he decides to do. Just changes which odds he’s trying to beat.

 

[OptimusOtto]

Granted Judah is a different prospect but the guys that have stayed an extra year as of late didn’t really benefit (Tyus, Fair). Can’t blame Judah if he stays in and pursues his dream. He’ll definitely get drafted.

 

[PauliePeppas]

Granted Judah is a different prospect but the guys that have stayed an extra year as of late didn’t really benefit (Tyus, Fair). Can’t blame Judah if he stays in and pursues his dream. He’ll definitely get drafted.

Id say 70/30 drafted. A lot of weird things happen draft night

 

[Cusefan69]

Id say 70/30 drafted. A lot of weird things happen draft night

Yeah especially when you add in the International flyers teams take.

 

[Orangezoo]

Id say 70/30 drafted. A lot of weird things happen draft night

I'll go 60/40 just on the grounds of the late in the draft deals that tend to come around and teams divert away from plan A

 

[Cuse'91]

Honestly, I'm leaning more like 30/70. Don't think it's likely for even a late 2nd round pick. Who knows if coming back for a year guarantees a 1st-round next draft, but, you only get one chance to hear your name get called; would be unfortunate to miss out on an experience like that.

 

[nccusefan]

Professional pipe laying is much better with choices of multiple pipes simultaneously fitted in multiple cities, college town pipe fitting can be limited somewhat then you still have to make it to Sociology 101 at 7:45am after the first pipe.

But there's plenty of 20 year old projects where you can lay pipe in Cuse that don't cost a thing. The projects in Miami would cause a normal man to go bankrupt

 

[atlanticuse]

Yeah especially when you add in the International flyers teams take.

those fill the second round, looking at the past 20 drafts.
Teams aren't going to take a flier on Judah second round. They'll sign him as a UFA.

 

[Cuse_NYC]

AZOrange any more smilies!!?? We’re dying in here!

 

[SUOrangeSU]

AZOrange any more smilies!!?? We’re dying in here!

oh he's smiling..it still isn't 100+ degrees here in Arizona

 

[cliftonparksufan]

I'm not attempting to speculate, but maybe Judah is waiting to see who else is staying or going back. Even though he is betting on himself, it could comes down to which guys are better pro prospects.

 

[asj410]

 

[PauliePeppas]

My uniformed opinion….he announces a return on Memorial day while I am 5 vodka/lemonades deep

 

[orangefog]

My uniformed opinion….he announces a return on Memorial day while I am 5 vodka/lemonades deep

So like 10am?

 

[Orangezoo]

So like 10am?

Well that very much depends on when you stopped the night before to be fair...

Get the smoker going at midnight and I'll raise that 5 to a few more than that...

 

[Sbucketball]

I was just watching some video and it's really crazy how much Judah improved over a few months last year, and at the Combine he was playing more like a PG and is showing great facilitation. He'll continue to improve over the off-season and he could be ACC POY next year and probably be in consideration for All American honors if he returns. He would absolutely take this team to new heights. And all that would seriously help his draft stock next year. Watching Judah tape certainly didn't help calm the anticipation of his decision. He's exactly what this team needs.

 

[CardiacCuse]

I think we all know that guys that drafted top 10, lottery, or even simply first round generally pan out more than a second round.

I think the issue is we are assuming Judah may go undrafted this year but be a first rounder next year. I wouldn’t say that’s actually very likely. If teams think that little of him now that the 55th spot is accurate for this year, there’s probably about as good a chance that waiting another year just leads him to being undrafted (which could arguably be better than being the 55th pick because he can then select where he signs but still).

Point is guys generally have to improve a ton to go from being potentially undrafted to being a first round pick. Maybe Judah will improve a ton but it's probably more likely that he only shows modest improvements, in which case he may not improve his draft stock at all and would have simply missed out on a year of development.

The history of freshmen going through the draft process, returning to school, and improving their draft stock is spotty at best. I pulled the numbers a few weeks back and I believe it happens less than half the time.

TLDR: Mintz will have to beat the odds no matter what he decides to do. Just changes which odds he’s trying to beat.

- some drafts are stronger than others...and there's no easy way to quantify that but its just true...
- this is supposedly a very strong draft while next year's is weak
- Judah actually improved a lot over the course of the freshman season - he's playing a new position - it's very rare that a player would start playing a new position in freshman season of NCAA - so comparing him to how others improved or didnt doesnt make sense - how many of those other players were trying a new position??
- he showed that he can improve a lot - so no saying that won't continue

he wouldnt stay in if he thought he would be undrafted, most likely

i dont think many people think he would go from undrafted to first round

i think you have to realize that system matters a lot too...im betting that next season the entire roster "looks" different..and has wildly different stats.

but I am with you generally - it may be that the things judah needs to improve on are just things that he wont really improve on...in that case, it is not easy to decide either way

 

[IthacaMatt]

I think we all know that guys that drafted top 10, lottery, or even simply first round generally pan out more than a second round.

I think the issue is we are assuming Judah may go undrafted this year but be a first rounder next year. I wouldn’t say that’s actually very likely. If teams think that little of him now that the 55th spot is accurate for this year, there’s probably about as good a chance that waiting another year just leads him to being undrafted (which could arguably be better than being the 55th pick because he can then select where he signs but still).

Point is guys generally have to improve a ton to go from being potentially undrafted to being a first round pick. Maybe Judah will improve a ton but it's probably more likely that he only shows modest improvements, in which case he may not improve his draft stock at all and would have simply missed out on a year of development.

The history of freshmen going through the draft process, returning to school, and improving their draft stock is spotty at best. I pulled the numbers a few weeks back and I believe it happens less than half the time.

TLDR: Mintz will have to beat the odds no matter what he decides to do. Just changes which odds he’s trying to beat.

It's also a fact that players who have successful seasons for tournament teams get drafted higher, absent outstanding personal measurables, than guys from small schools where they are the big fish in the really small pond, or their team just isn't very good. Teams like to recruit (and draft) winners. They have work ethic, they know how to work together and not just play for themselves. These things are important, too.

 

[cuseallday]

My uniformed opinion….he announces a return on Memorial day while I am 5 vodka/lemonades deep

Come on, you gotta drink something with orange juice. I prefer mimosas I'll be 4.4 deep.

 

[Niastri]

- some drafts are stronger than others...and there's no easy way to quantify that but its just true...
- this is supposedly a very strong draft while next year's is weak
- Judah actually improved a lot over the course of the freshman season - he's playing a new position - it's very rare that a player would start playing a new position in freshman season of NCAA - so comparing him to how others improved or didnt doesnt make sense - how many of those other players were trying a new position??
- he showed that he can improve a lot - so no saying that won't continue

he wouldnt stay in if he thought he would be undrafted, most likely

i dont think many people think he would go from undrafted to first round

i think you have to realize that system matters a lot too...im betting that next season the entire roster "looks" different..and has wildly different stats.

but I am with you generally - it may be that the things judah needs to improve on are just things that he wont really improve on...in that case, it is not easy to decide either way

System matters, but at the core of it, next season's system, whatever it is, is going to be even better for Mintz than last year.

Last year, with Girard and Edwards top returning players, JB gave Girard far too much time as lead guard. Mintz gradually grew into the role and was definitely ball dominant later in the year as his confidence, and the confidence JB had in him, grew.

This year, Mintz will be The Man from the first possession, and he'll know it.

Except for blowouts and rare mismatches where it makes sense for another player to start the offense, Mintz is going to be possessing the ball every meaningful possession.

 

[OHIORANGES]

If he’s “staying in the draft” he doesn’t need to announce anything. He just stays in the draft.

 

[FreakTalksAboutSU]

If he’s “staying in the draft” he doesn’t need to announce anything. He just stays in the draft.

Very true. That said. I'd imagine we will fairly quickly be able to pick up on some context clues re other social activity.

 

[Zelda Zonk]

How do we know next year's draft class is 'weak?' I don't pay close enough attention to these things these days, but isn't it true that in every class players emerge, progress, develop, come out early, etc.? Or, is that prognostication already anticipating that stuff and with accuracy?

 

[RF2044]

How do we know next year's draft class is 'weak?' I don't pay close enough attention to these things these days, but isn't it true that in every class players emerge, progress, develop, come out early, etc.? Or, is that prognostication already anticipating that stuff and with accuracy?

Reasonable accuracy, given "known" people who will be in next year's draft.

There could certainly be some early entrants that blow up unexpectedly, or a few foreign prospects that emerge unexpectedly.

But the quality and depth of next year's draft is viewed by many in the sports media as being relatively weak in general, and certainly weaker than this year's group.

And of course, time will tell.

But it isn't just posters making that claim.

 

[Cuse2023]

If he’s “staying in the draft” he doesn’t need to announce anything. He just stays in the draft.

Somebody would get word and announce it, probably Rothstein. I happen to think the longer he drags this out the better chance he returns. If he was "100% set on the NBA" like Tipton and some others reported, the word would have gotten out already that he was keeping his name in the draft.