I think we all know that guys that drafted top 10, lottery, or even simply first round generally pan out more than a second round.
I think the issue is we are assuming Judah may go undrafted this year but be a first rounder next year. I wouldn’t say that’s actually very likely. If teams think that little of him now that the 55th spot is accurate for this year, there’s probably about as good a chance that waiting another year just leads him to being undrafted (which could arguably be better than being the 55th pick because he can then select where he signs but still).
Point is guys generally have to improve a ton to go from being potentially undrafted to being a first round pick. Maybe Judah will improve a ton but it's probably more likely that he only shows modest improvements, in which case he may not improve his draft stock at all and would have simply missed out on a year of development.
The history of freshmen going through the draft process, returning to school, and improving their draft stock is spotty at best. I pulled the numbers a few weeks back and I believe it happens less than half the time.
TLDR: Mintz will have to beat the odds no matter what he decides to do. Just changes which odds he’s trying to beat.