Day2
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I agree and I think his dad wants him to leave. I don’t think money is the determining factor here. It’s the opportunity.
Judah Mintz to test NBA Draft waters
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Orangezoo
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Not a indignation upon anyone specifically but we are in an era that is so divided and toxic that it's all about going and getting your own and focusing purely inward. That doesn't mean you don't be a good teammate but personal goals and achievement rise above all else to then focus solely on that. The journey and experience is de prioritized because it's simply not the same environment.
Opportunity is there and thus- it's a go get it now or someone else will take your spot mindset and honestly just the way things are right now.
twinight
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I don't understand how the "opportunity" is better for him if he leaves this year.
orangefog
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Of course. It’s silly to think that they don’t. To each other? I have no idea.
Orangezoo
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Eye of the beholder in that regard.
Day2
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Because his development will be within the NBA system instead of with a college team and an unproven coach. And he won’t have to worry about his personal goals conflicting with SU’s goals.
orangefog
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I agree with that take, but the counter is, the opportunity to experience college for another year and play in the NCAA Tournament and possibly make a run in the tournament. It all depends on what Judah wants, either way, he isn't wrong.
twinight
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You think the "opportunity" is better for a kid who's a deep second round pick going this year than a potential first-round pick going next year?
The data suggests otherwise.
Day2
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I think that is what Judah wants and he’s getting pressured to do otherwise. While the decision may be collective, the regret won’t be. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Day2
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What data? If money isn’t a factor, it’s only delaying the inevitable.
twinight
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Are you serious?
So I tell you about two players. One was drafted at #55 in 2023.
The other was drafted at #18 in 2024.
Your theory is that—besides money—they have an equal shot at success in the NBA?
The data on career trajectory by draft pick is widely known (at least I thought it wsa). Clearly it makes a difference.
It's not just "delaying the inevitable." With more money invested in you, you are given more opportunities to prove yourself.
Day2
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You didn’t show any data. You’re just repeating your argument.
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It’s 100% on Judah
twinight
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You want me to post a link showing the correlation between career success and draft position? I'll happily do so. But I couldn't imagine anyone with the most elementary understanding of the NBA needing such a link. I thought it would be insulting to post one. But if this is news to you, I'll help you out and post one.
Day2
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In the time you’ve spent attacking me personally, you could have found the evidence to support your argument.
Sbucketball
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Yeah, it indicates it’s not the easy decision we thought it would be after the combine. Probably waiting and hoping for a last minute development.
A few weeks ago I had convinced myself he’s gone. I figured I would weather the disappointment that way. The last couple days on here have me convinced he’s coming back. Just in time to be crushed if he doesn’t return.
In some ways it might be better for Judah to move on. In a freeflowing offense, you don't really want a ball dominant guard.
You want multiple players who are able to set up and make plays.
Judah might be better of in the G league to improve his skills for the NBA.
twinight
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"attacking me personally."
You may be the most delicate person I've ever encountered if me not going along with you playing stupid is me "attacking" you. But okay. Here you go, ding-dong.
NBA Draft Analysis -- Expected value of a pick
An exploration of NBA draft pick performance history over 20 years in terms of career average points, rebounds, assists and more.
www.82games.com
Determining NBA Draft Pick Values - The Data Jocks
We determine NBA draft pick values in two different ways using data back to 1980 and quadratic programming.
thedatajocks.com
0.2 YNdeeR
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It's really a personal decision. My opinion that being a late second rounder or a UDFA creates more risk than returning to college, isn't going to matter to Judah. What I will say, however, is that there is evidence (analysis of win shares and other advanced statistics) that playing for a top college team, especially one that has positive performance exposure in the NCAA tournament (which is likely if Judah rejoins SU with all the new players), can significantly improve a player's draft value.
I hope that is true but I worry about what dad thinks. And I wonder how you would know that? This group has been very tight lipped about this.
Day2
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You can waste your time with the insults as much as you want. I’m just pointing out that it is indeed a waste of time."attacking me personally."
You may be the most delicate person I've ever encountered if me not going along with you playing stupid is me "attacking" you. But okay. Here you go, ding-dong.
NBA Draft Analysis -- Expected value of a pick
An exploration of NBA draft pick performance history over 20 years in terms of career average points, rebounds, assists and more.www.82games.comDetermining NBA Draft Pick Values - The Data Jocks
We determine NBA draft pick values in two different ways using data back to 1980 and quadratic programming.
You asked me for an explanation as to why Mintz would jump at the opportunity now, as opposed to waiting a year, and I gave it to you. Your data doesn’t actually refute that argument. You’re talking about the odds. Mintz (or his father) doesn’t care about the odds. He’s gambling on himself.
So yeah, he could increase his odds of success by waiting. Or he could put himself in a position where he has a year of experience and development over every guard in next year’s draft. While that probably won’t separate him from a lottery pick, it could separate him from the 18th pick or later.
Depending on where he goes, he could even get minutes in the NBA next season (I don’t think he will). Terance Mann was drafted 48th and split time between the Clippers and their G-League affiliate his rookie year. He even started a handful of games with the Clips. He’s been a solid role player and occasional starter ever since. I’m guessing the Mintz family is looking at success stories like that over the data that suggests otherwise.
(And I know that’s not an apples to apples comparison, as Mann played four years at FSU. At the same time, I doubt Mintz and his dad are viewing it that way.)
There are plenty of rational and logical reasons for why he should stay. That doesn’t mean Mintz will follow them.
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