Judah Mintz to test NBA Draft waters | Page 85 | Syracusefan.com

Judah Mintz to test NBA Draft waters

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orangefog said:
Of course. It’s silly to think that they don’t. To each other? I have no idea.
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Once more for the cheap seats...
Joke Drummer GIF by Travis
 
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twinight said:
You want me to post a link showing the correlation between career success and draft position? I'll happily do so. But I couldn't imagine anyone with the most elementary understanding of the NBA needing such a link. I thought it would be insulting to post one. But if this is news to you, I'll help you out and post one.
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It’s just that you said you were telling us about two players… and then you didn’t. And then you cited “data” that you didn’t actually cite. I guess we could just take your word for it.
 
I hope that if Judah goes pro he is ready mentally. The G league isn't going to be anything like college. I worry that he might not be prepared for the enormous differences between being a star on a huge stage vs just another project grinding for a shot in the shadows.
 
Zelda Zonk said:
It’s just that you said you were telling us about two players… and then you didn’t. And then you cited “data” that you didn’t actually cite. I guess we could just take your word for it.
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"It’s just that you said you were telling us about two players… and then you didn’t."

I did in the next two sentences that immediately followed. The sentences that start with, "One," and then, "The other." Not sure how I could have made that clearer.

"And then you cited “data” that you didn’t actually cite."

I gave three links filled with data. But yes, I didn't originally cite the data that higher draft picks have greater success and more chances/opportunities in the NBA. I found it hard to believe anyone on a basketball message board would need that explained to them. I apologize for overestimating you.

"I guess we could just take your word for it."

Or you could read the links provided. Or just use your head.
 
If it’s about money, isn’t it conceivable he could make more money via NIL in college vs grinding away in g league (at least in next year). If he hates college, then so be it. Many of us are looking at this though our personal lens Knowing what we know now. Would I love to extend college and delay working another year. Hell ya! Being king of campus and laying pipe like a steam fitter.…Sounds like heaven.
 
twinight said:
"It’s just that you said you were telling us about two players… and then you didn’t."

I did in the next two sentences that immediately followed. The sentences that start with, "One," and then, "The other." Not sure how I could have made that clearer.

"And then you cited “data” that you didn’t actually cite."

I gave three links filled with data. But yes, I didn't originally cite the data that higher draft picks have greater success and more chances/opportunities in the NBA. I found it hard to believe anyone on a basketball message board would need that explained to them. I apologize for overestimating you.

"I guess we could just take your word for it."

Or you could read the links provided. Or just use your head.
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Boom. Roasted.
 
twinight said:
"It’s just that you said you were telling us about two players… and then you didn’t."

I did in the next two sentences that immediately followed. The sentences that start with, "One," and then, "The other." Not sure how I could have made that clearer.

"And then you cited “data” that you didn’t actually cite."

I gave three links filled with data. But yes, I didn't originally cite the data that higher draft picks have greater success and more chances/opportunities in the NBA. I found it hard to believe anyone on a basketball message board would need that explained to them. I apologize for overestimating you.

"I guess we could just take your word for it."

Or you could read the links provided. Or just use your head.
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I think the point was, what are the names of the players.
 
rocklloyd said:
If it’s about money, isn’t it conceivable he could make more money via NIL in college vs grinding away in g league (at least in next year). If he hates college, then so be it. Many of us are looking at this though our personal lens Knowing what we know now. Would I love to extend college and delay working another year. Hell ya! Being king of campus and laying pipe like a steam fitter.…Sounds like heaven.
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Unfortunately, getting your honorary plumbing license is only one part of college. There's another part of it and it's not for everyone.
 
rocklloyd said:
If it’s about money, isn’t it conceivable he could make more money via NIL in college vs grinding away in g league (at least in next year). If he hates college, then so be it. Many of us are looking at this though our personal lens Knowing what we know now. Would I love to extend college and delay working another year. Hell ya! Being king of campus and laying pipe like a steam fitter.…Sounds like heaven.
Expand...
It’s not about money for Mintz.
 
shandeezy7 said:
Unfortunately, getting your honorary plumbing license is only one part of college. There's another part of it and it's not for everyone.
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Professional pipe laying is much better with choices of multiple pipes simultaneously fitted in multiple cities, college town pipe fitting can be limited somewhat then you still have to make it to Sociology 101 at 7:45am after the first pipe.
 
miamicuse said:
Professional pipe laying is much better with choices of multiple pipes simultaneously fitted in multiple cities, college town pipe fitting can be limited somewhat then you still have to make it to Sociology 101 at 7:45am after the first pipe.
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Mario Bros. is a fun game, but it doesn’t hold a candle to Super Mario Bros.
 
anyone actually do an analysis of career-success-by-draft-pick (i.e. number of years, games/year, career stats, earnings, etc.)?

Basketball Reference has the data.. I'm just too lazy or dumb to do something with it (see: my failed normal curve for age of predicted picks):

www.basketball-reference.com

2003 NBA Draft | Basketball-Reference.com

Checkout the summary for NBA 2003 Draft with Round by Round selections and more on Basketball-Reference.com
www.basketball-reference.com www.basketball-reference.com
 
I think we all know that guys that drafted top 10, lottery, or even simply first round generally pan out more than a second round.

I think the issue is we are assuming Judah may go undrafted this year but be a first rounder next year. I wouldn’t say that’s actually very likely. If teams think that little of him now that the 55th spot is accurate for this year, there’s probably about as good a chance that waiting another year just leads him to being undrafted (which could arguably be better than being the 55th pick because he can then select where he signs but still).

Point is guys generally have to improve a ton to go from being potentially undrafted to being a first round pick. Maybe Judah will improve a ton but it's probably more likely that he only shows modest improvements, in which case he may not improve his draft stock at all and would have simply missed out on a year of development.

The history of freshmen going through the draft process, returning to school, and improving their draft stock is spotty at best. I pulled the numbers a few weeks back and I believe it happens less than half the time.

TLDR: Mintz will have to beat the odds no matter what he decides to do. Just changes which odds he’s trying to beat.
 
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