LAX TV/Streaming Action for March 29-April 3

[Cuse All-In]

Looking at the RPI, which doesn't seem to include the UAlbany game as yet,
UVa dropped to #6 and North Carolina to #12, while Duke climbed to #13.
Notre Dame at #18.

RPI – D1 Men – Lacrosse Reference

lacrossereference.com

As with any metrics, the current RPI can be very helpful and the current one overall, seems to have teams grouped within reasonable ranges. HOWEVER, it can create silly outliers and over-reward teams with a winning record. One name that jumps out is St. Bonaventure listed at #33 ahead of such teams as Towson, Michigan, Stony Brook etc. The Bonnies have beaten up on teams with RPIs in the 60s and 70s (Hampton, Cleveland State, VMI) but gotten smoked by their only top 20 opponent, Richmond.

Anyone who thinks Cuse (#30) and Dartmouth (#31) are just marginally better than the Bonnies at #33 is smoking something!

 

[fieldystick]

But if they aren't asking much at all, it really wouldn't happen. That is why I was suggesting Utah, no lacrosse dirty laundry and being another large school the association might seem positive to some ACC bigwigs.

While I understand where you're coming from with Utah, the ACC doesn't have affiliate members in any sport. If they weren't willing to seriously talk to Hopkins for lacrosse, I can't imagine that they'll be willing to talk to anybody in any sport.

As was being discussed in another thread this week: I think the best bet for the ACC getting to six in the short term is if Florida State or Boston College or whoever adds the sport, but I don't think regaining the AQ is a priority.

From the Hopkins perspective, ACC affiliate membership was the first choice before a) the ACC balked at it and b) Maryland joining the Big Ten turned the attention that way. Big East is the other conference that I think Hopkins had some serious discussions with, and they of course ended up with Denver.

 

[Cuse All-In]

And with two games left against teams they’ve lost to double digits by, this looks unlikely. SU can only lose one more if they want to finish 8-6.

Cornell will have one days rest against the Orange next week (the Orange will have three) so maybe they can steal one there. If LaSalla and Moore are still out against UVa, maybe they do well at home. UNC hasn’t been great but they crushed Syracuse last year. Seems like a lot would have to fall right this year for them to do well, and they haven’t won more than two games in a row all year.

If they can only withstand one more loss it seems like too far a bridge. Frustrating since the ACC is down and so the opportunity is there. But that Duke win is looking like an anomaly right now. Wins over Hobart, Holy Cross and Stony Brook aren’t very impressive.

Can anyone tell me about the hit LaSalla took? clean?

 

[wgdsr]

As with any metrics, the current RPI can be very helpful and the current one overall, seems to have teams grouped within reasonable ranges. HOWEVER, it can create silly outliers and over-reward teams with a winning record. One name that jumps out is St. Bonaventure listed at #33 ahead of such teams as Towson, Michigan, Stony Brook etc. The Bonnies have beaten up on teams with RPIs in the 60s and 70s (Hampton, Cleveland State, VMI) but gotten smoked by their only top 20 opponent, Richmond.

Anyone who thinks Cuse (#30) and Dartmouth (#31) are just marginally better than the Bonnies at #33 is smoking something!

it's better at end of season. and it doesn't matter for much who is 25, 30 or 33.

one of the problems with rpi in its current status that no one talks about much is it'll be tight at the bubble. marginal difference, maybe bc beat a very weak team instead of just a week team. and yet that marginal statistical difference may dictate selection. at least if that happens, there's precedent

 

[Cuse All-In]

for many years, my thought was that coaches didn't understand how to schedule. it was semi-defensible as the criteria changed every year in application.

now that we've gone straight rpi for 3 years disregarding covid year... unless they were told something else about how selections will go, they still don't get it.

uva has both quinnipiac AND bellarmine coming up. that's insane. all this money and effort for programs, hire laxreference for gawd sakes.

The Cuse coaches have been consistently setting extremely difficult schedules for years and playing fewer games than other ACC teams. That's all great when you are a legitimate super team but we aren't anymore and haven't been for a few years. It also penalizes our players in terms of individual performance - lower offensive stats across the board, poorer defensive stats, lower goalie save % etc. - fewer awards for our players which reduces profile of our team and team image for recruiting.

I hope this season will shake things up and get Gait in touch with reality. But...I'm not holding my breath.
The argument will now be that we have Spallina and Co. coming in.

 

[wgdsr]

Can anyone tell me about the hit LaSalla took? clean?

lasalla carried in too deep when it wasn't there, and should've hit the point. as he got off an awkward shot, he was maybe falling as it is. he got popped by the sliding defenseman in the back. not crazy cheap, but enough where lasalla banged his right side hard on the turf. caught a penalty for it.

he'd been winning about every faceoff and uva was scoring at will with the possessions. he went in too deep in that circumstance (1 backup on roster!), so it goes.

 

[wgdsr]

The Cuse coaches have been consistently setting extremely difficult schedules for years and playing fewer games than other ACC teams. That's all great when you are a legitimate super team but we aren't anymore and haven't been for a few years. It also penalizes our players in terms of individual performance - lower offensive stats across the board, poorer defensive stats, lower goalie save % etc. - fewer awards for our players which reduces profile of our team and team image for recruiting.

I hope this season will shake things up and get Gait in touch with reality. But...I'm not holding my breath.
The argument will now be that we have Spallina and Co. coming in.

other than umd add, the schedule is tough but imo not crazy and what they needed. even umd doesn't hurt rpi and that's how you get in.

they're a team that needs rpi ooc right now, as make or break would then be being .500+ in the acc. with their team now, i don't think scheduling for that is the play.

 

[Cuse All-In]

lasalla carried in too deep when it wasn't there, and should've hit the point. as he got off an awkward shot, he was maybe falling as it is. he got popped by the sliding defenseman in the back. not crazy cheap, but enough where lasalla banged his right side hard on the turf. caught a penalty for it.

he'd been winning about every faceoff and uva was scoring at will with the possessions. he went in too deep in that circumstance (1 backup on roster!), so it goes.

Thanks - appreciate the info.

 

[DoctahLexus]

Feels like every team besides MD GTown and Princeton has looked suspicious at one point or another in the season. If not with a loss, then with a head scratching near loss. Maybe it’s always like this but this year feels extra crazy when it comes to ranking teams properly.

 

[Cuse All-In]

it's better at end of season. and it doesn't matter for much who is 25, 30 or 33.

one of the problems with rpi in its current status that no one talks about much is it'll be tight at the bubble. marginal difference, maybe bc beat a very weak team instead of just a week team. and yet that marginal statistical difference may dictate selection. at least if that happens, there's precedent

I agree with your point. Full disclosure - I have a Wall Street type background and its frustrating to see data that is not as good as it should be. Nothing's perfect in team sports data but I know that top financial analysts could refine and improve the numbers across the board.

 

[fieldystick]

Feels like every team besides MD GTown and Princeton has looked suspicious at one point or another in the season. If not with a loss, then with a head scratching near loss. Maybe it’s always like this but this year feels extra crazy when it comes to ranking teams properly.

To me it feels basically like the uncertainty of who the best team is that is usually spread among 5-8 teams at this time is spread among those same teams but for 2nd best this time.

I was trying to remember the last time we got to April and I felt that there was a clear and overwhelming favorite to win the championship like most think Maryland is this season.

 

[Cuse All-In]

Feels like every team besides MD GTown and Princeton has looked suspicious at one point or another in the season. If not with a loss, then with a head scratching near loss. Maybe it’s always like this but this year feels extra crazy when it comes to ranking teams properly.

Agreed. The drop off in the ACC and the improvement in the Ivies, Jacksonville, Boston U. etc. has really shaken things up.

 

[fieldystick]

Agreed. The drop off in the ACC and the improvement in the Ivies, Jacksonville, Boston U. etc. has really shaken things up.

The only part of this that I would take issue with is Jacksonville. They’re High Point 2019 all over again. 2 high profile wins, a head scratching loss (or two), bad overall SOS.

If they lose in the SoCon tourney, they’re not even going to remotely be in the discussion for an at-large, even if that’s their only remaining loss. The numbers aren’t there for them, even now. And they still have at least 3 abysmally bad teams left to play.

 

[Powellfan]

other than umd add, the schedule is tough but imo not crazy and what they needed. even umd doesn't hurt rpi and that's how you get in.

they're a team that needs rpi ooc right now, as make or break would then be being .500+ in the acc. with their team now, i don't think scheduling for that is the play.

Certainly not crazy, but knowing you’d be underdogs in all your acc games (almost half the schedule) it does feel a little foolhardy to add that Maryland game. The other difficult games had been on the schedule forever so not much you can criticize Gait for there.

Should be interesting to see how next year’s schedule shakes out. Gait has already gone on record saying he was a little naive in how he laid things out. I think Maryland most be at least a two year deal so I am guessing they are playing down in College Park next year. Holy Cross and Stony Brook must be considered flex games at this point, but those aren’t the teams your looking to drop. I’d be shocked if they dropped Cornell (who should be very good next year), Army (who should not be), Hobart or Hopkins. I would be surprised if they dropped Albany but not shocked. Anyways that’s a long way to say not a lot of wiggle room.

If they plan on playing a lot of freshmen next year I would tell the team to dial things down in the scheduling department. Georgetown seems to have built up their schedule incrementally over the years to build confidence. Hard to do in the acc but I don’t think it does the freshmen much good to play many games like the one we just witnessed.

 

[wgdsr]

Certainly not crazy, but knowing you’d be underdogs in all your acc games (almost half the schedule) it does feel a little foolhardy to add that Maryland game. The other difficult games had been on the schedule forever so not much you can criticize Gait for there.

Should be interesting to see how next year’s schedule shakes out. Gait has already gone on record saying he was a little naive in how he laid things out. I think Maryland most be at least a two year deal so I am guessing they are playing down in College Park next year. Holy Cross and Stony Brook must be considered flex games at this point, but those aren’t the teams your looking to drop. I’d be shocked if they dropped Cornell (who should be very good next year), Army (who should not be), Hobart or Hopkins. I would be surprised if they dropped Albany but not shocked. Anyways that’s a long way to say not a lot of wiggle room.

If they plan on playing a lot of freshmen next year I would tell the team to dial things down in the scheduling department. Georgetown seems to have built up their schedule incrementally over the years to build confidence. Hard to do in the acc but I don’t think it does the freshmen much good to play many games like the one we just witnessed.

if you're good with missing the playoffs next year, you dial down the schedule. holy cross is an awful game if they win 0-2 games. mediocre mid majors is where it's at for your bottom level games. they may carry a bit more risk of upset, but the juice is worth the squeeze.

if you want wins in place of nc$$, you dial it back. between albany, holy cross, hobart... they have games in 2022 to give them w's. ooc otherwise is army, stony, cornell, hopkins in addition to umd (who diesn't hurt you?). that's not a murderer's row with those 7 games outside the terps. some weak, average and top teams.

 

[Zack80]

While I understand where you're coming from with Utah, the ACC doesn't have affiliate members in any sport. If they weren't willing to seriously talk to Hopkins for lacrosse, I can't imagine that they'll be willing to talk to anybody in any sport.

That is true about affiliate members but there have been a lot of changes around and about in recent years. Doesn't the ACC still have that partial relationship with ND for football?

As I already mentioned if the ACC only gets 1 or 2 teams in the desire to have an AQ could grow immensely, thus we would be in a different situation than 8 years ago when Hopkins was looking into it.

I don't really expect it to happen.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Half: Rutgers 9, Hop 4

 

[fieldystick]

That is true about affiliate members but there have been a lot of changes around and about in recent years.

So an unrelated aside.

Imagine in some alternate universe where Maryland stays in the ACC and Hopkins joins as a lacrosse affiliate.

UNC
Duke
Virginia
Maryland
Johns Hopkins
Syracuse
Notre Dame

Holy freaking crap what a conference.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Final Rutgers 12, Hop 7

 

[fieldystick]

Final Rutgers 12, Hop 7

Got too far behind. I don’t think it really mattered too much anyway. AQ is the only path.

 

[Zack80]

Got too far behind. I don’t think it really mattered too much anyway. AQ is the only path.

Where's Epstein these days?

 

[fieldystick]

Where's Epstein these days?

On the bench pretty much exclusively the last two games. I can’t imagine he stays for next season, but who knows.

 

[Zack80]

On the bench pretty much exclusively the last two games. I can’t imagine he stays for next season, but who knows.

That really seems to take some of the punch out of Hopkins' offense.