Looking ahead to Selection Sunday

[AZOrange]

Man I'll tell you who doesn't belong in the tourney...Ohio state.

 

[Chris02M]

1. Where are you getting Wisconsin SOS as #130. . Wisconsin SOS is #2 in the country, right behind Kansas at #1. The OOC SOS was also #9, which was the second best amongst the pod contenders... after Kansas. Both have great schedules.

2. I only have Kansas with 11 top 50 wins (11-7 vs top 50), and I have Wisconsin with 8 top 50 wins (8-4 vs top 50). And Green Bay is currently #51, so it could be 9 for Wisconsin at any moment.

In terms of elite top 25 wins:, it's a draw at 5, and Wisconsin is 5-2 vs Kansas at 5-4.

I just don't see a big difference between the two.

was probably a mistake on espn 's nitty gritty report(insider only). if that is true then I would have Kansas barely ahead since they won regular season big 12 while it looks like Wisconsin won't

 

[Chris02M]

ohio state is looking at a 7 seed

 

[bpo57]

Me and my dad were just having this exact conversation. I could understand it if they had like one more loss than use but they have 4 more losses than us! It some point that argument starts to grow stale.

That's why KU may have hurt themselves badly last night. Kinda tough to give a 7 loss team a #1 seed. It would seem another loss would make that certain.

 

[bpo57]

I think the ACC champ - if it's SU, Duke, or Virginia - will get rewarded with the one seed in the east.

I agree with this unless KU runs the table from here. It may not be completely deserved but they are KU and the committee will fall back on the SOS argument. I think SU would be just as deserving if we ran the table but I think there is a bit of a bias toward the Dukes, UKs and KUs of the world.

 

[bpo57]

You better hope the team on the four line can beat UVA because we are a horrible matchup with them. I don't see us beating them. I think our chances of a 1 are slim and none.

It might sound crazy but I actually think it could be best if SU loses in the quarters or semis. This team is on fumes and doesn't need to play in too many more wars. Plus SU often tends to do well when expectations are diminished. With the parity in college hoops I think seeding seems less critical than in some other years.

 

[zhanjuzi]

Still in a pretty good position for a one seed.

Assuming Florida-Wichita and Arizona all are getting one seeds here are a few ways this could play out.

Kansas - if they get the last one seed and we finish ahead of Duke on the curve then we would more than likely get the 2 seed in the East behind Kansas.

Right now Duke-Syracuse and Virginia are all pretty much on the 2 seed line (Virginia in some projections are on the three but for the sake of this argument lets say they are on the 2 line). If we all finish on the 2 line then that more than likely would mean one would go South one would go East and one would go West.

Its pretty important that we finish ahead of Duke and or Virginia. If we dont then they would more than likely get the 2 seed in the east. More importantly is that we cant afford Duke and or Virginia to possibly grab that last one seed from us (or Kansas) otherwise we are cooked for MSG.

Rooting for Maryland to beat Virginia is a must. Also UNC beating Duke next Saturday night. This would really help us.

Of course we have to win our last 2 games and the first game in the ACC tourney to put ourselves in a position where this all comes into play.

The more I think about it the more I realize that Syracuse has zero chance of going to Memphis it would seem. UVA or Duke are almost 100% locks to be in that South Region as a 2 seed . The only question is whether or not the team (Duke or UVA) NOT sent to Memphis screws SU out of NYC. Bottom line is the Cuse is going either to NYC, Anaheim or Indy.

Without a healthy Grant this is wishful thinking. In fact I would gladly take a 4-seed now if I knew he would be 100% for March Madness.. without him we are only good for a single tourney win at most.

 

[Alsacs]

Your point is a good one, but your choice of year to illustrate it is weak. That 2007 field was a cluster. Illinois, Purdue and Stanford should not have been chosen before the Orange (or Drexel, for that matter).

Your missing my point though. Syracuse was ahead of Nova in the standings and didn't make the tournament because the committee analyzed the conference schedules. Just like UVA will finish ahead of SU this year and will be a lower a seed.

 

[Marsh01]

Your missing my point though. Syracuse was ahead of Nova in the standings and didn't make the tournament because the committee analyzed the conference schedules. Just like UVA will finish ahead of SU this year and will be a lower a seed.

Jerry Palm is probably the best at seeding teams and he has Virginia at a 3 seed and us at a one seed. Obviously things can change but that is a pretty accurate seeding number for both teams

 

[Alsacs]

Alsacs, what are your thoughts on the following:

Syracuse vs Wisconsin

I agree we are ahead now and entering conference tourney if we go 2-0. And the one good thing for us vs, them, is that nobody can use BC against us. Both teams have their "BC" moment.

But if we lose in conference semi's or final and Wisconsin wins B10, who do you think would be higher on the s-curve?

Wisconsin and Kansass

Who is ahead in your view if both lose in conference tournament. Basically, is Kansas really ahead of Wisconsin right now. I think it's pretty close.

If Wisconsin wins B10, and Kansas loses B12, in my view it is clearly Wisconsin ahead of Kansas on s-curve, Your opinion?

Kansas and Wichita St

I agree it's silly to have Kansas as a #1 with 7 losses as of today. They could well get the #1 seed with 7 losses, with other's losing around them the next two weeks... but as of today, no.

But here is my point on these 2 teams. If one believes Kansas is a strong #1 team as of now, it is really based on that ridiculous SOS. If SOS is that important to you rather than record, than choosing Wichita St as a #1 is inconsistent. You can't go both ways.

My thought on Wichita St have loosened
- I have defended the notion of many teams would also be undefeated with that schedule (and still will)... simple luck is the main reason. Most teams suffer bad losses one or two times a year, and its pretty random
- Wichita St may be as good as those other #1's... they may not be... it's a mystery. I think they are a top 8 level team in the country, but it is a guess.
- But whatever one's thoughts are on the above, they do not impact your resume. One simply can't defend Wichita St as a #1,. The 4 #1 seeds, are not always the 4 best teams, but instead the teams's with the 4 best resumes (and I know you won't disagree with that).

I have always assumed that Wichita St would be a #1 if undefeated, and I still think they will, but I have reduced the likelihood. We simply don't know what the committee will do. We have no precedent what a "0" will make them do, although I suspect it will blind them from the normal measures . But with Kansas in the #1 seed discussion, the SOS and top 50 games will be discussed a lot. That should hurt Wichita St in the room.

Wichita State would be the least qualified 1 seed of all-time. They could win it all in the tournament, but their resume is the worst by far od any top 8 team.

Wisconsin would be 8th for me right now behind Florida-Arizona-Wichita State-Syracuse-Kansas-Duke-Villanova-Wisconsin. Wisconsin has 5 losses and 3 of them were at home. THey have a What lose to Northwestern they have wins over St. John's, St. Louis, Florida, Marquette, West Virginia in the non-conference, but they aren't ahead of Kansas.

Wichita State versus Kansas is a dumb argument. Kansas is so much better its funny to listen to Marshall talk. Wichita State versus any decent team in the 2nd round will be a must watch game.

 

[Alsacs]

Jerry Palm is probably the best at seeding teams and he has Virginia at a 3 seed and us at a one seed. Obviously things can change but that is a pretty accurate seeding number for both teams

I agree with Palm UVA is not a 2 seed yet. They only have 1 non-conference scalp, and wins over Syracuse and North Carolina. Syracuse has 10 wins away from home and Virginia has 10 wins away from home, but we have more wins over tournament teams than UVA does. That@ St. John's win looks like the difference between the teams.

 

[KaiserUEO]

Wichita State would be the least qualified 1 seed of all-time. They could win it all in the tournament, but their resume is the worst by far od any top 8 team.

Wisconsin would be 8th for me right now behind Florida-Arizona-Wichita State-Syracuse-Kansas-Duke-Villanova-Wisconsin. Wisconsin has 5 losses and 3 of them were at home. THey have a What lose to Northwestern they have wins over St. John's, St. Louis, Florida, Marquette, West Virginia in the non-conference, but they aren't ahead of Kansas.

Wichita State versus Kansas is a dumb argument. Kansas is so much better its funny to listen to Marshall talk. Wichita State versus any decent team in the 2nd round will be a must watch game.

im picking wichita st to lose in the 1st round.

they will not win it all.

never.

not in a million years.