Miami opens -2 over NC State..

[690West]

Very interesting

 

[Marsh01]

Very interesting

Wow that is surprising

 

[Ryand877]

Who would we rather play? I'm guessing Miami, but they played us tough twice. Warren scares me.

 

[690West]

Who would we rather play? I'm guessing Miami, but they played us tough twice. Warren scares me.

There's the age old argument that says if he gets 30 and no one else does squat, can they beat us? Their overall ACC record gives us the most probable answer. Although probability be damned in a one game scenario.

 

[Marsh01]

Who would we rather play? I'm guessing Miami, but they played us tough twice. Warren scares me.

Miami all the way.

 

[scottynguyen]

I feel confident against either team on the defensive side of the ball. Warren is individually great, but the rest of that team isn't very impressive.

With SU's recent offensive woes (hopefully FSU was a sign that things are turning), I feel like it'd be more advantageous to face the weaker defense and that's NC State.

I remember being impressed with Miami's size, felt like they were all 6'6'' or taller. Their athleticism and size lends them the ability to match-up well across the board, regardless of what type of D they're playing. Playing man, they could probably switch our screens and in their zone there aren't any significant weaknesses there to pick on.

Kenpom has Miami's adjusted D at 66. NC State is at 141.

Also, completely separate argument, but NC State is a better quality win in the eyes of the committee.

 

[sutomcat]

Miami all the way.

I would assume if we face NC State, we will have a big contingent of fans rooting against us. Miami didn't bring many to DC last year for the NCAA tournament, more than they brought to NYC for the BET but still unimpressive numbers.

 

[scottynguyen]

I would assume if we face NC State, we will have a big contingent of fans rooting against us. Miami didn't bring many to DC last year for the NCAA tournament, more than they brought to NYC for the BET but still unimpressive numbers.

Could be a mixed bag. Might get some Blue Devils/ Tar Heels pulling for SU, I think they hate NC State more than us.

 

[ORRange]

Very interesting

I realize that Mia just beat them 85-70 @ NC St. but this line is shocking. The wolfpack has to have the game, Warren is playing out of his mind , will want revenge for the blowout and should make adjustments regarding the pace this time. This is the strangest line since Texas Tech (8-8) was favored over #12 Baylor (13-2) on Jan 15th. and won the game 82-72.:crazy:

 

[rrlbees]

One of Wayne Root's "doesn't make sense" bets. Take Miami.

 

[RichmondCuse]

Really not surprising. KenPom has Miami winning the game by a point, so it makes sense that they would be favored. His lines are typically very close to the Vegas lines. Also, I would absolutely rather play NC State. Miami forced us into two dogfights - our close game against NC State was more the product of a bad night for our team. NCSU can't shoot at all and they have a worse defense than Miami.

 

[BuffOrange]

In before token "kenpom is worthless, betting public loves Miami so that's how they get even $" terrible post.

 

[690West]

I would assume if we face NC State, we will have a big contingent of fans rooting against us. Miami didn't bring many to DC last year for the NCAA tournament, more than they brought to NYC for the BET but still unimpressive numbers.

And Miami would be playing their 3rd game in 3 days. Not sure thats a factor any more but who knows.

 

[rrlbees]

In before token "kenpom is worthless, betting public loves Miami so that's how they get even $" terrible post.

Well in reality, even if they are close, how the betting line is set and how kenpom determines the spread are 2 completely different methods.

 

[RichmondCuse]

Well in reality, even if they are close, how the betting line is set and how kenpom determines the spread are 2 completely different methods.

I don't know - the Vegas lines are certainly set using pretty advanced computer models that I'm sure are similar to kenpom formulas. Of course you're right in that the lines have to be set with public perception in mind, which isn't a factor for kenpom, but I'm not sure public perception would play a huge role in a game like this.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Miami definitely has good size and athletes. They really play stall ball with Larrannaga right? NC St. pushes the tempo a little more I think. I'm leaning towards playing Miami but these are two teams we should take care if we are playing decent-well offensively. If we aren't executing on offense then it's one and done in Greensboro.

 

[itsbotime]

Obviously Vegas knows that Swoff won't let State win this game.

 

[Alsacs]

NC State is a better matchup because of what Scotty said above. We have trouble scoring in the half-court. Miami would play a slow tempo game and keep the game close with their defense. I don't want to play Miami a 3rd time. Jim Larranaga is a great coach with an undermanned team and play us twice tough, and beat UNC at UNC in their 2nd game. I don't want a team that would control tempo. When we played NC State we missed a lot of shots, but the game wasn't played as slow as it would against Miami. Also, NC State struggles from 3pt range. With Duke in the night session NC State wouldn't have that huge of an advantage in the crowd and we will have a decent following to negate it somewhat.

I will be pulling for NC State tonight just because I think we would beat them more times out of 10 then we would a Larranaga coached Miami squad. Also, I want to hear Jay Williams say all of Friday that his upset pick is NC State over Syracuse because its obvious if you have heard the idiot Williams talk in the last week.

 

[rrlbees]

I don't know - the Vegas lines are certainly set using pretty advanced computer models that I'm sure are similar to kenpom formulas. Of course you're right in that the lines have to be set with public perception in mind, which isn't a factor for kenpom, but I'm not sure public perception would play a huge role in a game like this.

Oddsmakers have one goal, to make money. The easiest way would be to have about the same amount if money bet on each side. They never want to be caught on one side. When they set a line at -7, that's not who they think will win and by how much. It's the line they think will bring equal money on both sides, and they will adjust accordingly. When KP has a team 7 pts better, his formula thinks that team will win by 7.

 

[BuffOrange]

NC State is a better matchup because of what Scotty said above. We have trouble scoring in the half-court. Miami would play a slow tempo game and keep the game close with their defense. I don't want to play Miami a 3rd time. Jim Larranaga is a great coach with an undermanned team and play us twice tough, and beat UNC at UNC in their 2nd game. I don't want a team that would control tempo. When we played NC State we missed a lot of shots, but the game wasn't played as slow as it would against Miami. Also, NC State struggles from 3pt range. With Duke in the night session NC State wouldn't have that huge of an advantage in the crowd and we will have a decent following to negate it somewhat.

I will be pulling for NC State tonight just because I think we would beat them more times out of 10 then we would a Larranaga coached Miami squad. Also, I want to hear Jay Williams say all of Friday that his upset pick is NC State over Syracuse because its obvious if you have heard the idiot Williams talk in the last week.

I heard JWill during the BC-NCST game say "Maryland had the game won vs Cuse". Expected a thread on it but apparently I was the only loser watching such a dud of a game.
A few min's later he'd say "NC St had it won vs Cuse" which of course actually has some validity.
Not sure if he misspoke the first time & was correcting himself, or if he actually thinks MD had our game won.

And what was he complaining about re: the officiating last night after regulation? He acted like there was a massive injustice that the refs swallowed their whistle only one one end of the floor due to Goldin barrelling into defenders, ignoring that GT went to the line on their 2nd to last possession.

I can't figure out if he's dumb as rocks or an awesome troll.

 

[690West]

I heard JWill during the BC-NCST game say "Maryland had the game won vs Cuse". Expected a thread on it but apparently I was the only loser watching such a dud of a game.
A few min's later he'd say "NC St had it won vs Cuse" which of course actually has some validity.
Not sure if he misspoke the first time & was correcting himself, or if he actually thinks MD had our game won.

And what was he complaining about re: the officiating last night after regulation? He acted like there was a massive injustice that the refs swallowed their whistle only one one end of the floor due to Goldin barrelling into defenders, ignoring that GT went to the line on their 2nd to last possession.

I can't figure out if he's dumb as rocks or an awesome troll.

I'll go with dumb troll.

 

[BuffOrange]

Oddsmakers have one goal, to make money. The easiest way would be to have about the same amount if money bet on each side. They never want to be caught on one side. When they set a line at -7, that's not who they think will win and by how much. It's the line they think will bring equal money on both sides, and they will adjust accordingly. When KP has a team 7 pts better, his formula thinks that team will win by 7.

There's almost never equal $ on both sides. They take sides all the time. They got killed in college football a couple yrs ago when the Top 5 favorites were covering on the road every week. It happens, they can afford it.

 

[shandeezy7]

I heard JWill during the BC-NCST game say "Maryland had the game won vs Cuse". Expected a thread on it but apparently I was the only loser watching such a dud of a game.
A few min's later he'd say "NC St had it won vs Cuse" which of course actually has some validity.
Not sure if he misspoke the first time & was correcting himself, or if he actually thinks MD had our game won.

And what was he complaining about re: the officiating last night after regulation? He acted like there was a massive injustice that the refs swallowed their whistle only one one end of the floor due to Goldin barrelling into defenders, ignoring that GT went to the line on their 2nd to last possession.

I can't figure out if he's dumb as rocks or an awesome troll.

Jay Will is quite possibly the dumbest sports analyst, at least far as his knowledge of the game is concerned. And I'm not just talking about his analysis of Syracuse. I'll watch an entire half of a game, and then at the halftime show, Jay will have a completely different take on what happened that what I just saw with my own eyes. Must have been one too many motorcycle accidents or something (too soon?).

 

[Alsacs]

I heard JWill during the BC-NCST game say "Maryland had the game won vs Cuse". Expected a thread on it but apparently I was the only loser watching such a dud of a game.
A few min's later he'd say "NC St had it won vs Cuse" which of course actually has some validity.
Not sure if he misspoke the first time & was correcting himself, or if he actually thinks MD had our game won.

And what was he complaining about re: the officiating last night after regulation? He acted like there was a massive injustice that the refs swallowed their whistle only one one end of the floor due to Goldin barrelling into defenders, ignoring that GT went to the line on their 2nd to last possession.

I can't figure out if he's dumb as rocks or an awesome troll.

Not the most intelligent analyst would be guess. He did have Syracuse as a preseason Final Four team, but his analysis is awful and its hard to listen to him make dumb points time after time.

 

[rrlbees]

There's almost never equal $ on both sides. They take sides all the time. They got killed in college football a couple yrs ago when the Top 5 favorites were covering on the road every week. It happens, they can afford it.

You're right, there is almost never the exact amount. They try to get as close as possible. And it does happen that they take a side, but not all the time nor even often. Point being, they set the lines based, and adjust it, based on money. KP does not. Two different methods.