NBA 2018-2019

[kirbivore]

The only question is why smuggle weed in an iced tea container that you aren’t allowed to bring through tsa even if it only has iced tea in it?

He may as well have tried to walk through security with a joint in his mouth.

From Chris Rock's HBO show - "If you jump a subway turnstile, you might just get off with a warning from the police. But if you jump a turnstile carrying a loaded gun and smoking a joint, maybe you need that ass-kicking."

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

If most of these guys stay put and then Durant goes to NY or Brooklyn you might be able to argue the East passes the West this summer.

Edited to add a hot take - If Durant leaves this summer GS doesn't make the WCF next year.

Whose better? Denver? Harden will choke and Paul loses his cool.

 

[Horn88]

Whose better? Denver? Harden will choke and Paul loses his cool.

GS without Durant is far from what they were pre-Durant. They don't have near the supporting cast they used to have for Curry/Klay/Draymond and if Durant leaves they won't really have any money or cap space to add someone to help replace his production or add meaningful depth.

Take Durant off this Warriors team this year and replace him with a MLE veteran. Do you still think they're the favorites to win the Houston series? This is probably a stretch but I don't think it's a guarantee they would've won that Clippers series with a Durant for MLE veteran swap.

 

[Alsacs]

GS without Durant is far from what they were pre-Durant. They don't have near the supporting cast they used to have for Curry/Klay/Draymond and if Durant leaves they won't really have any money or cap space to add someone to help replace his production or add meaningful depth.

Take Durant off this Warriors team this year and replace him with a MLE veteran. Do you still think they're the favorites to win the Houston series? This is probably a stretch but I don't think it's a guarantee they would've won that Clippers series with a Durant for MLE veteran swap.

I think the Warriors could still win the West with Harrison Barnes type but Durant is their cheat code to why they are overwhelming favorites.
Steph is a still a top 5 player and Klay is top 20-25.
Draymond isn’t going to be worth the money/cap space he will take to resign.

The West is ripe for anyone to win to it next year. If Durant goes to NY with Kyrie the East will be fine.
I would pick the Clippers right now to be biggest threat to Golden State next year and the Lakers are going to add some good players as well.

 

[Horn88]

I think the Warriors could still win the West with Harrison Barnes type but Durant is their cheat code to why they are overwhelming favorites.
Steph is a still a top 5 player and Klay is top 20-25.
Draymond isn’t going to be worth the money/cap space he will take to resign.

The West is ripe for anyone to win to it next year. If Durant goes to NY with Kyrie the East will be fine.
I would pick the Clippers right now to be biggest threat to Golden State next year and the Lakers are going to add some good players as well.

The stat I read that stuck out to me was entering 14-15 Steph/Klay/Draymond cost 14.5M total which was 22.9% of the cap. Entering 19-20, Steph/Klay/Draymond will cost ~91M and will be 83.4% of the cap. I don't think they'll be able to afford a Barnes type replacement.

Those three were so cheap they could build out a great supporting cast and part of what made them so devastating was that not only were their starters dangerous but their bench would come in and could go on these mini spurts to blow a game open. But now Iggy, Bogut and Livingston are older and they don't have any money to get strong veteran role players like Speights, Barbosa, Rush, etc. that helped make them so dangerous.

I'm obviously very/too bearish on a Durantless GS but I think they'll see a major drop off if he leaves. He just does so much for them on both ends and they won't have the resources to beef up the supporting cast to offset his departure.

 

[Knicks411]

GS without Durant is far from what they were pre-Durant. They don't have near the supporting cast they used to have for Curry/Klay/Draymond and if Durant leaves they won't really have any money or cap space to add someone to help replace his production or add meaningful depth.

Take Durant off this Warriors team this year and replace him with a MLE veteran. Do you still think they're the favorites to win the Houston series? This is probably a stretch but I don't think it's a guarantee they would've won that Clippers series with a Durant for MLE veteran swap.

Yeah I dunno, I tend to agree. I seem to think Dray is somewhat of a lesser version of the player he was a few years ago (when I was as high on him as basically anyone) though he's still really good, and I know he lost like 25 pounds coming into the playoffs and it seems to have paid off on the defensive end.

If Durant leaves, at first blush I would think the title race is as open as its been in good while? At least since the first year the warriors won

 

[Alsacs]

Milwaukee is playing well but this crap with Giannis is out of control.
He is getting a call every time even if he isn’t fouled and travels a lot.
This is like James Harden with the crap he is getting called his way.

 

[Melancer46]

Milwaukee is playing well but this crap with Giannis is out of control.
He is getting a call every time even if he isn’t fouled and travels a lot.
This is like James Harden with the crap he is getting called his way.

Seems to me that Boston is just very handsy/use their forearms a lot to try to stop the drive and happen to be playing a team that attacks constantly. There were a couple bad calls here and there as is usual but Giannis was legitimately fouled on almost all of those calls. The one that I remember thinking was probably a bad call off the top of my head was his fast break tip attempt that would have just resulted in a layup by Middleton anyways.

 

[cuseattle]

Anyone on the east coast up? Going to triple OT in Portland.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Anyone on the east coast up? Going to triple OT in Portland.

I'm in mountain time, started watching in the 2nd OT.

Could tell those guys were gassed. Hood made himself some FA money tonight.

 

[Melancer46]

Anyone on the east coast up? Going to triple OT in Portland.

I was going to say I wish I had stayed up and then i realized the game must have gone until like 2 AM lol. I’ll catch the highlights.

 

[Horn88]

Yeah I dunno, I tend to agree. I seem to think Dray is somewhat of a lesser version of the player he was a few years ago (when I was as high on him as basically anyone) though he's still really good, and I know he lost like 25 pounds coming into the playoffs and it seems to have paid off on the defensive end.

If Durant leaves, at first blush I would think the title race is as open as its been in good while? At least since the first year the warriors won

Agreed and that’s why I think this summer is really exciting to see where all these chips fall.

Not to over hammer the point but before Durant you could make a very legit argument Warriors had 3 of the 12 best players in the world and a great supporting cast. They’re supporting cast has fallen off and now that core 3 is probably closer to 3 top 20-25 players in the world. That’s a big difference.

 

[Knicks411]

Agreed and that’s why I think this summer is really exciting to see where all these chips fall.

Not to over hammer the point but before Durant you could make a very legit argument Warriors had 3 of the 12 best players in the world and a great supporting cast. They’re supporting cast has fallen off and now that core 3 is probably closer to 3 top 20-25 players in the world. That’s a big difference.

I think I mostly agree, Steph is still steph, and Klay is a bad ass, but Draymond isn't quite the player he was a few years back. (At least on a night in night out basis)
It's just really hard to continue to fill in the gaps on the roster with so much money tied up in the big 4. Plus Iggy and Livingston are older.

Though maybe they can pull a Cousins like rabbit out of their hat with the MLE again?

 

[OttoinGrotto]

My counterpoint to the Warriors demise is I think Curry and Thompson are both shuttling their games a little to accommodate Durant, and will go way up when he's not on the roster.

 

[Horn88]

I think I mostly agree, Steph is still steph, and Klay is a bad ass, but Draymond isn't quite the player he was a few years back. (At least on a night in night out basis)
It's just really hard to continue to fill in the gaps on the roster with so much money tied up in the big 4. Plus Iggy and Livingston are older.

Though maybe they can pull a Cousins like rabbit out of their hat with the MLE again?

Yup and that’s a huge wildcard. GS has proven they’re as good as anyone else in the league at recruiting free agents.

Also, Curry and Klay are probably still the duo in the league that would scare me the most in a 7 game series with how both can catch fire from 3 and there’s pretty much nothing you can do about it.

 

[Cusefan0307]

My counterpoint to the Warriors demise is I think Curry and Thompson are both shuttling their games a little to accommodate Durant, and will go way up when he's not on the roster.

Agreed and I don’t think Kerr puts the ball in Curry’s hands nearly enough and he’s less aggressive. I thought the best Steph has played since KD went to Oakland was when he missed about 15 games with a knee injury.

 

[OrangeDW]

Agreed and I don’t think Kerr puts the ball in Curry’s hands nearly enough and he’s less aggressive. I thought the best Steph has played since KD went to Oakland was when he missed about 15 games with a knee injury.

I do wonder if there’s some long term strategy to that. Steph is 30 and has had some injury history. Keeping his minutes in the low 30s and letting KD take a lot of the load probably saves at least a little wear and tear on Steph which keeps him healthier for the playoffs and possibly helps extend the length of his prime a little bit?

 

[Knicks411]

Agreed and I don’t think Kerr puts the ball in Curry’s hands nearly enough and he’s less aggressive. I thought the best Steph has played since KD went to Oakland was when he missed about 15 games with a knee injury.

Also worth pointing out that the Warriors have a crazy good record when Steph plays and Durant doesn't.

Fwiw, since Durant came to the Warriors, when Steph is on the court and KD isn't, the Warriors have a net rating of about +13 per 100. (about 2100 minutes)
When the scenario is flipped (2700 minutes), the Warriors are about +2 per 100
I continue to think Steph remains the most underrated great player in recent memory.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Also worth pointing out that the Warriors have a crazy good record when Steph plays and Durant doesn't.

Fwiw, since Durant came to the Warriors, when Steph is on the court and KD isn't, the Warriors have a net rating of about +13 per 100. (about 2100 minutes)
When the scenario is flipped (2700 minutes), the Warriors are about +2 per 100
I continue to think Steph remains the most underrated great player in recent memory.

Yeah.

I think there's the chance the Warriors wouldn't be any less a contender, they'd just be more vulnerable to a big injury.

 

[longislandcuse]

My counterpoint to the Warriors demise is I think Curry and Thompson are both shuttling their games a little to accommodate Durant, and will go way up when he's not on the roster.

Completely agree.

Warriors will be much more fun to watch with their focal point being the Splash Brothers again.

Probably still favorites, but beatable.

The NBA without this Durant/Golden State garbage cant come soon enough.

 

[Melancer46]

One more thing re: Giannis and the fouls:


This random guy on Reddit went through and posted clips of each time Giannis got free throws. He probably earned at least 18 of his 22 free throws if not more and this isn’t even counting the calls that he didn’t get.

Point being, Boston fouls a lot; that’s literally what Stevens teaches them to do. It’s like the Seahawks used to do; they’d commit pass interference on almost every play because they knew the refs would get sick of calling it/they’d basically set the standard of what level of contact is allowed on a given play.

Couple that with the fact that Milwaukee, specifically Giannis and Bledsoe, put a ton of pressure on defenders and are constantly changing direction, forcing defenders slightly out of position so that they have to reach in or foul to save an easy layup and you’re going to get a lot of fouls called.

The refs are missing one here and there as is usual, but Boston has mostly earned their fouls in this series.

 

[Knicks411]

Somewhat related to the above; in a recent column Zach Lowe wrote this week, he mentioned that

Here's a thing the NBA has found after years of parsing data about officiating: Even though they earn heaps of free throws, most ball-dominant superstars do not get close to every call they deserve under the letter of the law. Most have a sizable ratio between incorrect non-calls -- those they deserve but don't get -- and undeserved fouls drawn. (Cut to Shaq nodding.)

That is inherent to being a ball-dominant superstar. Some beloved teams -- Pat Riley's Heat, Jerry Sloan's Jazz -- famously defended with nonstop handsy physicality because they knew referees simply could not call every foul. If they did, games would last four hours. Ball-dominant superstars suffer from something like the corollary of that.

 

[moqui]

Agreed and that’s why I think this summer is really exciting to see where all these chips fall.

yes. I think there is a decent chance that the clippers land both kawhi and jimmy butler which, if kd leaves gs, would make them my early favorite to win the west. imagine the perimeter defense if you pair them with pat beverly

 

[MikeSU02]

 

[OrangeDW]

Explains a lot about why Draymond is such a knucklehead.