NBA free agency/LeBronapalooza 2018

[OttoinGrotto]

Gotta say, I kinda hate the off-season for Houston so far.

Very un-Morey like moves.

The new ownership hands on, maybe?

 

[Melancer46]

Gotta say, I kinda hate the off-season for Houston so far.

It hasn't been great, but I think a lot of it is reasonably explainable.

With Ariza, supposedly Phoenix made one of those Shark Tank-style offers where they said he can take $15 million now or he can take significantly less if he hesitates. I'm not sure he even gave Houston the opportunity to match the offer.

With Mbah A Moute, I'm guessing Morey thinks he's replaceable with the league minimum/he was ungodly bad in the playoffs.

CP3...I think that contract was negotiated last year as part of the agreement to get CP3 in Houston in the first place. Obviously it won't look good the last year or two of the deal, but it would likely ruin Houston's reputation if they hadn't lived up to their word considering CP3 is the Player's Association president; you know word would have spread insanely quick if Houston dicked him around, not to mention it would have ended any shot of them being a contender.

I think the MCW signing is a good one and it's easy enough to hit the undo button on a league minimum contract if he doesn't work out.

I don't like the fit with Melo, but I guess we'll see. It'll probably be another league minimum deal and maybe Melo just didn't gel with Westbrook and he'll be fine with CP3/Harden but we'll see; I definitely think Ariza was a better fit by a solid margin.

And we'll see what happens with Capela but I suppose the worst case scenario for them is that he could take the qualifying offer; I would guess Houston will ultimately make him a decent short-term offer to avoid that scenario but we'll see.

I also think they quietly have some really nice young guys like Isaiah Hartenstein, Zhou Qi, and De'Anthony Melton.

 

[Knicks411]

I'll throw the CP deal out; there's a very good chance that like you said, there was some kind of a handshake deal prior to trading for him.
Just, they basically lost 2 of their 3 good perimeter defenders? And their whole deal is to beat the warriors. So, I dunno

 

[chugg21]

That would be so Vlade to overpay the guy who is only valuable to a team that is a contender.

Anything over 4-60 and the guy is beyond stupid. I am now expecting 4-78 and Smart goes there and fades out.

I can't see any world in which he gets 19/year. Kings do Kings things but I imagine there's no way he goes over 15, even on a sheet. 4/48 seems about right in the current marketplace.

 

[Melancer46]

I'll throw the CP deal out; there's a very good chance that like you said, there was some kind of a handshake deal prior to trading for him.
Just, they basically lost 2 of their 3 good perimeter defenders? And their whole deal is to beat the warriors. So, I dunno

Yeah, like I said, I imagine they think they can find a replacement for Mbah pretty easily. Ariza was the real loss and I don't really think Melo is a good idea for them but we'll see.

I could see them signing someone like Dante Cunningham or James Ennis to try to fill the Mbah/Ariza role too.

 

[Alsacs]

I can't see any world in which he gets 19/year. Kings do Kings things but I imagine there's no way he goes over 15, even on a sheet. 4/48 seems about right in the current marketplace.

We are talking about Vlade not a rational NBA executive. The fact he has interest in Smart tells you that. Smart with DeAaron Fox is a horrible shooting backcourt. Smart belongs on a good team as the 3rd guard who does all the dirty work. On a 30 win team he kills the team.

He is getting north of 4-60 most likely.

 

[MikeSU02]

I'll throw the CP deal out; there's a very good chance that like you said, there was some kind of a handshake deal prior to trading for him.
Just, they basically lost 2 of their 3 good perimeter defenders? And their whole deal is to beat the warriors. So, I dunno

Ariza didn't have as good a season as people thought, even defensively. I actually think letting Ariza go is a very Morey-esque move (maybe Belichekian?).

They lost because they had an abysmal shooting game or else they would be champions and Morey would be heralded as the genius that took down the Dubs and Mike D would still be on the Amalfi Coast laughing and drinking.

 

[Melancer46]

Kings beat writer is saying there's nothing to report on regarding the Kings and Smart.

 

[Newhouser]

Gotta say, I kinda hate the off-season for Houston so far.

I agree - was not nuts about the size of the Paul deal, and I don't see Melo as a great fit or getting them closer to the Warriors.

 

[MikeSU02]

Rockets owner: Luxury tax not factor in moves

Sources told ESPN that the Rockets' initial offer to Capela was in the four-year, $60 million range, with the blossoming star center seeking a deal similar to Oklahoma City Thunder big man Steven Adams' four-year, $100 million contract.

 

[Knicks411]

Rockets owner: Luxury tax not factor in moves

Sources told ESPN that the Rockets' initial offer to Capela was in the four-year, $60 million range, with the blossoming star center seeking a deal similar to Oklahoma City Thunder big man Steven Adams' four-year, $100 million contract.

It's interesting how he worded it. The fact of paying the tax itself isn't an issue, but that doesn't necessarily mean the amount they would pay isn't an issue

 

[Alsacs]

Rockets owner: Luxury tax not factor in moves

Sources told ESPN that the Rockets' initial offer to Capela was in the four-year, $60 million range, with the blossoming star center seeking a deal similar to Oklahoma City Thunder big man Steven Adams' four-year, $100 million contract.

Can't say I blame them. Its not about the average money its the amount of percentage of the cap a player's contract takes up.
I am not blowing my future cap for a guy who is a slightly better version of DeAndre Jordan.

15 millon a year for Capela seems right. Bismack Biyombo got 4-72 and that contract was stupid. Teams can't be stupid. With the cap it kills future movement. That 2015 NBA offseason mediocre players got overpaid and it has killed the market.

 

[Melancer46]

An honest question that I don't know the answer to...who is the last defensive specialist C that got a big contract and it wasn't looked at as a bad deal later on?

Off the top of my head:

DeAndre - Clippers wanted him to opt out
Noah - Need I say more?
Biyombo - See Noah
Tristan Thompson - I think pretty much everyone agrees it's a bad deal now
Mahinmi - See Noah/Biyombo
Mozgov - See Noah/Biyombo/Mahinmi
Gorgui Dieng - See Noah/Biyombo/Mahinmi/Mozgov
Gortat - Wizards just salary dumped him
Asik - See Noah/Biyombo/Mahinmi/Mozgov

It seems like a relative certainty that Houston would ultimately regret it if they sign Capela for $25 mil per year. Capela is better than almost all of these players were when they got their deals (maybe not DeAndre and not the Knicks version of Noah but the one that the Bulls paid beforehand) but still, most of these guys are only getting $10-18 mil and they're still looked at as albatross deals.

 

[Knicks411]

An honest question that I don't know the answer to...who is the last defensive specialist C that got a big contract and it wasn't looked at as a bad deal later on?

Off the top of my head:

DeAndre - Clippers wanted him to opt out
Noah - Need I say more?
Biyombo - See Noah
Tristan Thompson - I think pretty much everyone agrees it's a bad deal now
Mahinmi - See Noah/Biyombo
Mozgov - See Noah/Biyombo/Mahinmi
Gorgui Dieng - See Noah/Biyombo/Mahinmi/Mozgov
Gortat - Wizards just salary dumped him
Asik - See Noah/Biyombo/Mahinmi/Mozgov

It seems like a relative certainty that Houston would ultimately regret it if they sign Capela for $25 mil per year.

I'm not sure all of those classifications are fair, some of those guys are just back up center more than defensive specialists. Not that your point is wrong.

Where does Gobert fall in?

 

[Melancer46]

I'm not sure all of those classifications are fair, some of those guys are just back up center more than defensive specialists. Not that your point is wrong.

Where does Gobert fall in?

Ah yeah, I left off the one good one haha. Gobert is definitely worth his contract right now at least, though even he has been fighting off injuries the last few years.

 

[MikeSU02]

An honest question that I don't know the answer to...who is the last defensive specialist C that got a big contract and it wasn't looked at as a bad deal later on?

Off the top of my head:

DeAndre - Clippers wanted him to opt out
Noah - Need I say more?
Biyombo - See Noah
Tristan Thompson - I think pretty much everyone agrees it's a bad deal now
Mahinmi - See Noah/Biyombo
Mozgov - See Noah/Biyombo/Mahinmi
Gorgui Dieng - See Noah/Biyombo/Mahinmi/Mozgov
Gortat - Wizards just salary dumped him
Asik - See Noah/Biyombo/Mahinmi/Mozgov

It seems like a relative certainty that Houston would ultimately regret it if they sign Capela for $25 mil per year. Capela is better than almost all of these players were when they got their deals (maybe not DeAndre and not the Knicks version of Noah but the one that the Bulls paid beforehand) but still, most of these guys are only getting $10-18 mil and they're still looked at as albatross deals.

Can they be switched onto a wing or a guard in the playoffs and effectively play defense?

That is the only question you need to ask. If it's no, then no way should you drop a ton of money on a center.

Now think about the #1 pick we just had who can't even be motivated to set an effective pick in summer league.

 

[MikeSU02]

Philly: We hired one of your coaches, we'd like Kawhi and please throw in one RC Buford?

LOL. I highly doubt Buford goes anywhere.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Ah yeah, I left off the one good one haha. Gobert is definitely worth his contract right now at least, though even he has been fighting off injuries the last few years.

Gobert works because he's freakishly talented and effective for one, but also because the entire Jazz identity is built around what he does on the defensive end.

 

[Alsacs]

What is a better roster right now?
Current Lakers or 2017-18 Cavs playoff roster?

I don't get the Lakers odds right now. That roster has some young talent but its not better than the playoff Cavs whom most everyone said was a mediocre roster. Ball/Kozma/Ingram in the future sure but not next year. Rondo/McGee/Stephenson um no.

 

[Trueblue25]

What is a better roster right now?
Current Lakers or 2017-18 Cavs playoff roster?

I don't get the Lakers odds right now. That roster has some young talent but its not better than the playoff Cavs whom most everyone said was a mediocre roster. Ball/Kozma/Ingram in the future sure but not next year. Rondo/McGee/Stephenson um no.

Young talent paired with proven playoff contributors (Lebron/Rondo)

It’ll be a shi show during the season but those two do whatever it takes to get it done in the playoffs. Rondo was hitting 40% from three for NO in the playoffs. Thats nuts.

Stephenson i dont get at all.

 

[Melancer46]

What is a better roster right now?
Current Lakers or 2017-18 Cavs playoff roster?

I don't get the Lakers odds right now. That roster has some young talent but its not better than the playoff Cavs whom most everyone said was a mediocre roster. Ball/Kozma/Ingram in the future sure but not next year. Rondo/McGee/Stephenson um no.

I think the Lakers roster is currently better than last year's Cavs but I don't think their title odds are remotely realistic right now.

 

[moqui]

Very un-Morey like moves.

that seems to be the case . . . . but it's really too soon to say, though, isn't it? the proof of a pudding is in the eating.

i think morey has earned the benefit of the doubt. pretty likely that he has more data & information than we do.

conversely, i doubt the benefit of trusting the analysis of you, me and all the other grandstand gms

 

[chugg21]

What is a better roster right now?
Current Lakers or 2017-18 Cavs playoff roster?

I don't get the Lakers odds right now. That roster has some young talent but its not better than the playoff Cavs whom most everyone said was a mediocre roster. Ball/Kozma/Ingram in the future sure but not next year. Rondo/McGee/Stephenson um no.

Think its the Cavs by a pretty wide margin.

 

[Trueblue25]

Think its the Cavs by a pretty wide margin.

Id take Rondo and Ball over Hill, Kuz and Ingram over Love and Hood, and even Lance over JR.

I just think the lakers are the hungrier, meaner team

 

[chugg21]

Id take Rondo and Ball over Hill, Kuz and Ingram over Love and Hood, and even Lance over JR.

I just think the lakers are the hungrier, meaner team

You're thinking of the future too much. None of those young guys have ever even played in a game that has mattered.