NBA free agency/LeBronapalooza 2018

[Melancer46]

I remain a fan of Love's game, but that money is pretty steep. Having said that, I think about how the Bucks might end up having to re-sign Middleton for roughly $25 million per year and then $30 million for Love doesn't seem that bad. I suppose it's not as bad as paying John Wall roughly $50 million like the Wizards will be doing soon though.

 

[Knicks411]

I remain a fan of Love's game, but that money is pretty steep. Having said that, I think about how the Bucks might end up having to re-sign Middleton for roughly $25 million per year and then $30 million for Love doesn't seem that bad. I suppose it's not as bad as paying John Wall roughly $50 million like the Wizards will be doing soon though.

I am as guilty of this as anyone else, but it's amazing how quickly some of these contracts signed the last few years look totally awful.

 

[chugg21]

I am as guilty of this as anyone else, but it's amazing how quickly some of these contracts signed the last few years look totally awful.

The teams and fans are so lucky the CBA limited idiots from handing out 6 and 7 year deals. So much better when contracts are only a debacle for a few years instead of half a decade. Hopefully the nhl figures this out too.

 

[RF2044]

I am as guilty of this as anyone else, but it's amazing how quickly some of these contracts signed the last few years look totally awful.

The owners literally cannot get out of their own way. Prior to slated rookie pay scaling, they paid exorbitant sums to unproven rookies, which would handcuff a franchise if the player bombed.

Simultaneously, they would pay ridiculous amounts of $$$ to utility players via free agency, just to submarine other teams. And then they'd cry poor and complain that contracts were out of control -- when they were in fact responsible for the problem.

When the salary cap vaulted up two years ago, what did they do? Spend like drunken sailors again.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I remain a fan of Love's game, but that money is pretty steep. Having said that, I think about how the Bucks might end up having to re-sign Middleton for roughly $25 million per year and then $30 million for Love doesn't seem that bad. I suppose it's not as bad as paying John Wall roughly $50 million like the Wizards will be doing soon though.

None of those contracts are even as close to insane as Timofey Mozgov getting paid 15 million a year for playing 31 games and averaging 4PPG. That one tops them all.

 

[Knicks411]

None of those contracts are even as close to insane as Timofey Mozgov getting paid 15 million a year for playing 31 games and averaging 4PPG. That one tops them all.

Yeah but, at least for me, that one looked dumb at the time. There are some I am sure I talked myself into at the time (rising cap, etc) that look pretty bad now.

The owners literally cannot get out of their own way. Prior to slated rookie pay scaling, they paid exorbitant sums to unproven rookies, which would handcuff a franchise if the player bombed.

Simultaneously, they would pay ridiculous amounts of $$$ to utility players via free agency, just to submarine other teams. And then they'd cry poor and complain that contracts were out of control -- when they were in fact responsible for the problem.

When the salary cap vaulted up two years ago, what did they do? Spend like drunken sailors again.

The only thing with that is, to an extent, they have to spend. They owe the players 50% of the revenue or whatever it is no matter what. But yeah, i m ean, 4/72 for Noah, or the Mozgov contract; basically any contract a center signed in the summer of 2016. There's just no way those were ever going to work out. So theoretically, I feel better about maxing out a guy like Wall or something; he may not be Steph Curry, but he's a very good player, young, etc. But paying him $45 million a year. Like I said, I probably talked myself into it 2 years ago. Not looking so good now though. Cap did flatten out very quickly, which I don't think anyone projected

 

[OrangeDW]

None of those contracts are even as close to insane as Timofey Mozgov getting paid 15 million a year for playing 31 games and averaging 4PPG. That one tops them all.

Luol Deng was paid to not even play!

Man, Mitch really went out badly.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Luol Deng was paid to not even play!

Man, Mitch really went out badly.

I'm convinced Luol Deng is really 40 years old and has been lying about his age forever. He looked 30 when he was at Duke. I don't remember another player completely falling apart in his late 20's quite like he did.

 

[Knicks411]

I'm convinced Luol Deng is really 40 years old and has been lying about his age forever. He looked 30 when he was at Duke. I don't remember another player completely falling apart in his late 20's quite like he did.

I had to look Deng up; there are so many guys/stories in the league it's hard to remember the details of everyone. (Like i totally blanked that he was traded to Cleveland)

Anyway, you are on to something. he was an all star in 2012 and 2013 (when he was "26" and "27", to play along). The next year, he didn't make the all star team, but essentially had the same numbers. In 15 and 16, he did fall off a little bit, but he was averaging about 14/6 per 36, 55% true shooting. (actually, he was more efficient those years, but his usage was way down, probably indicative that he was slipping a little.) Anyway, then he signed that big contract, and he basically fell off the face of the earth.

 

[MikeSU02]

I was also just looking at their draft pick situation, they owe a 1 to Atlanta, it's top ten protected this year and next. So if Love was going to leave, their best shot would probably be to trade him now and try and totally bottom out this year and next, keep the pick, and then start to move forward. But since they wanted to keep him, I guess you may as well extend him.

It is a lot of money though. He's a good player, really good even, but 30 a year? I've been a Love fan, but I have to say I am a little wary of big guys who are defensive liabilities. Lot harder to mask a big guy who can't defend as opposed to a guard

Oh for sure, but relative to who else they can get? I think paying him that much is fine. If you aren't going to bottom out, like you said, I don't think this is a bad move. Nance is apparently CLE's next guy they are trying to lock up.

 

[Knicks411]

Oh for sure, but relative to who else they can get? I think paying him that much is fine. If you aren't going to bottom out, like you said, I don't think this is a bad move. Nance is apparently CLE's next guy they are trying to lock up.

I know. I get it. People aren't going to want to go to Cleveland. Love is definitely a good player. It is a lot of money, but what else do you do with it? (I mean I guess Dan Gilbert could save some $ considering how much he has spent the last few years) It's really easy for me to sit here and say trade Love, bottom out, keep the pick and rebuild for a few years, but who knows what kind of a market there is for Love? Who knows if they can do any better than get a guy like Love?

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I remain a fan of Love's game, but that money is pretty steep. Having said that, I think about how the Bucks might end up having to re-sign Middleton for roughly $25 million per year and then $30 million for Love doesn't seem that bad. I suppose it's not as bad as paying John Wall roughly $50 million like the Wizards will be doing soon though.

My only quibble is that I think Love is actually pretty awful, so no matter what he gets paid, I consider him overpaid.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Love had a really really good season for Cleveland last year when he did play. A 22.4 PER and 61% TS%. The Cavs were plus 11 per 100 possessions when he was on the court.

 

[Cusefan0307]

So apparently Danny Green played with a groin tear last year. Maybe Kawhi was on to something?

 

[Knicks411]

So apparently Danny Green played with a groin tear last year. Maybe Kawhi was on to something?

Not possible. Kawhi was just being a malcontent

 

[Alsacs]

So apparently Danny Green played with a groin tear last year. Maybe Kawhi was on to something?

If it was Belichick as the coach the national media would be like jackals but Pop never gets questioned by the media.

 

[Newhouser]

I don't get the Love signing at all. The only way this works out is if he gets injured and misses substantial time and they get a high lottery pick that can contribute next year when Love returns and Sexton and Nance have added experience. All Love does is increase their win total to make their draft pick worse. He doesn't bring people to your building, he doesn't elevate your team to a relevant level, your fan base isn't in a win now mode, they get the re-build is coming. Signing Love isn't attracting other players. Bad signing.

 

[Melancer46]

I don't get the Love signing at all. The only way this works out is if he gets injured and misses substantial time and they get a high lottery pick that can contribute next year when Love returns and s e xton and Nance have added experience. All Love does is increase their win total to make their draft pick worse. He doesn't bring people to your building, he doesn't elevate your team to a relevant level, your fan base isn't in a win now mode, they get the re-build is coming. Signing Love isn't attracting other players. Bad signing.

I get it; I just don't really agree with it.

Seems like Cleveland is determined to not completely bottom out. Love should also help make things a lot easier on Sexton for example, which is obviously a huge priority for the Cavs now. I can understand the rationale behind wanting someone that you can build the team around (even if he probably isn't good enough to be the centerpiece on a good team) rather than having a crappy team with no real direction involved. Love provides a structure around which all their young guys can play.

As far as tanking goes, I think it's still very possible that Cleveland ends up picking in the top 10, in which case they'd get to keep their pick. Obviously this likely prevents them from having a legitimate shot at a top 3 pick though.

I imagine the trade market for Love isn't very high right now, so maybe they think with a season of being THE guy, they could potentially build his value back up and flip him for assets down the road and teams that are interested in him won't have to worry about trading for a guy on an expiring contract.

 

[Knicks411]

I get it; I just don't really agree with it.

Seems like Cleveland is determined to not completely bottom out. Love should also help make things a lot easier on s e xton for example, which is obviously a huge priority for the Cavs now. I can understand the rationale behind wanting someone that you can build the team around (even if he probably isn't good enough to be the centerpiece on a good team) rather than having a crappy team with no real direction involved. Love provides a structure around which all their young guys can play.

As far as tanking goes, I think it's still very possible that Cleveland ends up picking in the top 10, in which case they'd get to keep their pick. Obviously this likely prevents them from having a legitimate shot at a top 3 pick though.

I imagine the trade market for Love isn't very high right now, so maybe they think with a season of being THE guy, they could potentially build his value back up and flip him for assets down the road and teams that are interested in him won't have to worry about trading for a guy on an expiring contract.

I think the last two paragraphs are the key.

Even with Love, the rest of that team is really really bad. And, for whatever it's worth, the lottery odds are flatter now; just as an example, here is the change in odds for teams in the back portion of the top 10 (they also are drawing the lottery for the top 4 spots now)
7: 18.3% to 23.3% (and a 30% chance of picking in the top 4)
8: 9.9% to 18.3% (25% of picking in the top 4)
9: 6.1% to 14.5% (20% chance of picking in the top 4)
10: 4% to 9.9% (14% chance of picking in the top 4)

So, for instance, the 10th worst team next year will have a 14% chance of moving into the top 4, similar to the odds of the 7th team moving up last year.

And not only that, that also means the worst teams have a much worse shot of getting the top pick. The worst team in the league next year will go from having a 25% chance of the top pick to 14%, and even worse, they can fall all the way to 5, with a 47.9% chance! So there's less of an incentive to totally bottom out.

Also on the trade market for Love, agree I don't think there were teams beating down the Cavs door to get love. People trying to keep their powder dry for next summer

 

[Arangeman]

They are doing a 150 mil renovation to Quicken Loans Arena. They signed Love to hopefully get some fans to keep coming to the building. They aren’t getting any free agents. Limited options.

In other news the Rockets odds to win the title went down after signing Melo. 4.8% to 3.9% via Sportsline.

 

[Trueblue25]

They are doing a 150 mil renovation to Quicken Loans Arena. They signed Love to hopefully get some fans to keep coming to the building. They aren’t getting any free agents. Limited options.

In other news the Rockets odds to win the title went down after signing Melo. 4.8% to 3.9% via Sportsline.

Melo has more championship winning experience than Harden or Paul.

 

[Knicks411]

I have to say, I don't think I totally realized how flat the lotto odds were until I looked at them today

 

[Melancer46]

I have to say, I don't think I totally realized how flat the lotto odds were until I looked at them today

I really hate the new system.

 

[Knicks411]

I really hate the new system.

Selfishly, I think the Knicks will probably end in the 7-10 range, so I'm all for it.

It does seem a little too flat to me though; the worst team has a 48% chance of picking 5. Seems excessive, right?

 

[MikeSU02]

Selfishly, I think the Knicks will probably end in the 7-10 range, so I'm all for it.

It does seem a little too flat to me though; the worst team has a 48% chance of picking 5. Seems excessive, right?

Especially in a draft like next year that may only have one impact player.